Research & Statistics Office Department of Labor and Industrial Relations State of Hawai i Unemployment and the Recession Beyond the Headlines February 22, 212
Prepared by: Francisco P. Corpuz, Research & Statistics Officer Phyllis Dayao, LMI Staff Supervisor Vicki Lau, Labor Market Research Supervisor Jeri Arucan, Research Statistician Melonie Ogata, Research Statistician FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Research & Statistics Office Tel: 88.586.8999 dlir.research@hawaii.gov 83 Punchbowl Street, Room 34 Honolulu, HI 96813 www.hiwi.org http://hawaii.gov/labor/rs
Highlights z The number of hours worked per week has been declining steadily since 27. After peaking in 27, workers averaging 4 or more hours per week declined in 28 and 29. At the same time, the number of workers averaging less than 4 hours increased. z Young adults hit hard by the recession. Generally those in the younger age groups posted higher unemployment rates. In 29 and 21, unemployment rose for all age groups, particularly those younger than 44 years old. The 25 to 34 year old age group accounted for the most unemployment insurance claims when the recession peaked in 29. z When recession hits, workers stay put. As the recession began in 28, turnover rates declined in all age groups during 28 and 29, illustrating the tendency for workers to hold on to their current jobs during times of economic hardship. z College enrollment rates are tied to employment declines among the young. Employment for the 14-24 year old age groups started to decline in 28, while college enrollment began rising in 28 after remaining stable from 25-27. Tables Page 1. Full-time Workers............................................ 1 2. Part-time Workers............................................ 1 3. Unemployed Persons.......................................... 1 4. Persons at Work and Hours of Work.................................. 2 5. Usually Work Full-time......................................... 3 6. Usually Work Part-time......................................... 3 7. Employed Persons with a Job But not at Work and Reason for Absence............... 3 8. Unemployed Persons and Reasons for Unemployment........................ 4 9. Unemployed Persons and Duration of Unemployment......................... 4 1. Number of Weeks Worked Annually.................................. 5 11. Mean Usual Hours Worked Per Week................................. 5 12. Percent Unemployed By Age...................................... 6 13. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age................................ 7 14. Employment-to-Population Ratio by Age............................... 7 15. Share of UI Claimants by Age..................................... 8 16. UI Claimants by Age.......................................... 8 17. Labor Underutilization Rates...................................... 9 18. Turnover Rates by Age.........................................1 19. New Hires by Age...........................................1 2. Average Monthly Earnings by Age.................................. 11 21. Employment and College Enrollment.................................12
1 The tables in this report show that Hawai i s young adult trends were similar to the national trends found in the Pew Research Center report on the Young, Underemployed and Optimistic, Coming of Age, Slowly, in a Tough Economy 1 regarding whether there is a correlation between employee apathy for work and the rise and fall of the economy. EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED PERSONS BY FULL- AND PART-TIME STATUS, 25-21 2 The slowdown in Hawai i s economy in 28 resulted in a decline in the number of full-time and part-time workers. As a result, the number of unemployed rose, particularly those seeking full-time work. Data for 21 have shown slight improvement. Table 1. Full-time Workers Table 2. Part-time Workers Full-time Workers Part-time Workers 5 1 45 9 No. of Workers (thousands) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 35 or more hours 1 to 34 Hours Not at Work No. of Workers (thousands) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Part time for economic reasons Part time for noneconomic reasons Not at work 5 1 Table 3. Unemployed Persons Unemployed Persons No. of Unemployed (thousands) 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Looking for full-time work Looking for parttime work 1 The full report can be found at http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/212/2/sdt-youth-and-economy.pdf. 2 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 25-21
2 PERSONS AT WORK AND HOURS OF WORK 25-21 3 The majority of workers average 4 hours per week. After peaking in 27, workers averaging 4 or more hours per week declined in 28 and 29. At the same time, the number of workers averaging less than 4 hours increased. Table 4. Persons at Work and Hours of Work 325 Persons at Work and Hours of Work 25-21 3 275 Persons at Work (thousands) 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 1 to 14 hours 15 to 29 hours 3 to 34 hours 35 to 39 hours 4 hours 41 to 48 hours over 48 hours 5 25 3 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 25-21
3 PERSONS WORKING LESS THAN 35 HOURS PER WEEK, FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME STATUS, AND REASON FOR WORKING LESS THAN 35 HOURS 4 As Hawai i s economy experienced a downturn, slack work or business conditions were major reasons that both part-time and full-time workers were unable to put in more than 35 hours per week. Table 5. Usually Work Full-time Table 6. Usually Work Part-time Number of Workers (thousands) 25 2 15 1 5 Usually Work Full-time Slack work or business conditions Vacation or personal day Holiday, legal or religious Weather-related curtailment Other reasons Number of Workers (thousands) 3 25 2 15 1 5 Usually Work Part-time Slack work or business conditions Could find only part-time work Child-care problems Other family or personal obligations In school or training Retired or Social Security limit on earnings Other reasons Table 7. Employed Persons with a Job But not at Work and Reason for Absence 16, 14, 12, Employed Persons with a Job But not at Work and Reason for Absence, 25-21 Number of Workers 1, 8, 6, 4, Vacation Childcare Problems Own illness Other reason 2, 4 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 25-21
4 UNEMPLOYED PERSONS AND REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 5 25-21 The major reason for a person being unemployed is due to a job loss. After a small increase in 28, those classified in this category spiked upwards in 29 and decreased very slightly in 21. Since 28, those unemployed for 52 weeks and over has been steadily rising. 25, 2, Unemployed Persons and Reasons for Unemployment 25-21 Table 8. Unemployed Persons and Reasons for Unemployment 15, 1, Job losers On temporary layoff Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 5, 16, 14, Unemployed Persons and Duration of Unemployment 25-21 Table 9. Unemployed Persons and Duration of Unemployment 12, Number of Workers 1, 8, 6, Less than 5 weeks 5 to 14 week 15 to 26 weeks 27 to 51 weeks 52 weeks and over 4, 2, 5 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 25-21
WORK STATUS DURING A 12 MONTH PERIOD 5 Although the majority of workers work 5 to 52 weeks annually, the number of hours worked per week has been declining steadily since 27. 6 Table 1. Number of Weeks Worked Annually 6, Number of Weeks Worked Annually, 25-21 5, Number of Workers 4, 3, 2, 1, Worked 5 to 52 weeks Worked 4 to 49 weeks Worked 27 to 39 weeks Worked 14 to 26 weeks Worked 1 to 13 weeks Did not work Table 11. Mean Usual Hours Worked Per Week Hours Worked Per Week 4. 39.5 39. 38.5 38. 37.5 37. Mean Usual Hours Worked Per Week, 25-21 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Surveys 25-21.
6 YOUNG ADULTS HIT HARD BY THE RECESSION Generally those in the younger age groups posted higher unemployment rates. In 29 and 21, unemployment rose for all age groups, particularly those younger than 45 years old. 7 Table 12. Percent Unemployed by Age 25.% Percent Unemployed By Age 25-21 2.% 15.% 1.% Under 22 years: 22 to 24 years: 25 to 34 years: 35 to 44 years: 45 to 54 years: 55 to 64 years: 65 years and over: 5.%.% 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Surveys 25-21
7 Participation rates for 16 to 19 year olds fell the most from 29 to 211 compared to the other age groups. 1.% Labor Force Participation Rates by Age 25-211 Table 13. Labor Force Participation by Age 9.% 8.% Participation Rate 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 16 to 19 years 2 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 and older 1.%.% 211 The employment rate for the youngest age group, the 16 to 19 year olds, fell more than for any other age group during the recession. 8.9 Employment-to-Population Ratio by Age 25-211 Table 14. Employment-to- Population Ratio by Age.8.7 Employment-to-Population Ratio.6.5.4.3.2 16 to 19 years 2 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over.1 211 8 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 25-21
8 The 25 to 34 year old age group accounted for the most unemployment insurance claims when the recession peaked in 29. 9 Table 15. Share of UI Claimants by Age 3.% Share of UI Claimants by Age 25-211 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% Under 22 22 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over 5.%.% 211 Table 16. UI Claimants by Age 6, UI Claimants by Age 25-211 5, 4, 3, 2, Under 22 22 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over 1, 211 9 Source: Hawai i DLIR, Research and Statistics Office, UI Statistics
9 TOUGH ECONOMIC TIMES ALTERING ADULTS DAILY LIVES, LONG-TERM PLANS As the unemployment rate began to rise in 28, so did the number of discouraged workers, marginally attached workers, and those employed part time for economic reasons. Unemployment peaked in 29 and declined in 21, as did discouraged workers and marginally attached workers, but those employed part time for economic reasons did not experience a decrease until 211. 1 Table 17. Labor Underutilization Rates 18.% Labor Underutilization Rates 25-211 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% 211 Definitions: U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate). U-4: Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers. U-5: Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. U-6: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. Discouraged workers (U-4, U-5, and U-6 measures) are persons who are not in the labor force, want and are available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They are not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the prior 4 weeks, for the specific reason that they believed no jobs were available for them. Marginally attached (U-5 and U-6 measures) are a group that includes discouraged workers. The criteria for the marginally attached are the same as for discouraged workers, with the exception that any reason could have been cited for the lack of job search in the prior 4 weeks. Persons employed part time for economic reasons (U-6 measure) are those working less than 35 hours per week who want to work full time, are available to do so, and gave an economic reason (their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full-time job) for working part time. These individuals are sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers. 1 Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS
1 WHEN RECESSION HITS, WORKERS STAY PUT As the recession began in 28, turnover rates 11 declined in all age groups during 28 and 29, illustrating the tendency for workers to hold on to their current jobs during times of economic hardship. 3.% Turnover Rates by Age 25-21 Table 18. Turnover Rates by Age 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+.% All age groups experienced a drop in new hiring for 28 and 29. New hiring rebounded in 21 in all age groups but the very youngest (14-18). 25, New Hires by Age 25-21 Table 19. New Hires by Age 2, 15, 1, 5, 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 11 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Local Employment Dynamics, QWI Online
11 Only the very youngest age groups (under 22) experienced a drop in average earnings. 12 The 22-24 year old age group saw decreased earnings in 29 and 21. While most of the older age groups also had lower earnings in 29, they rebounded in 21 and were actually better off than they were in 27. Table 2. Average Monthly Earnings by Age $4,5 Avg. Monthly Earnings by Age 25-21 $4, $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ $ 12 Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LED, QWI
12 COLLEGE ENROLLMENT RATES ARE TIED TO EMPLOYMENT DECLINES AMONG THE YOUNG Employment for the 14-24 year old age groups started to decline in 28, while college enrollment began rising in 28 after remaining stable from 25-27. 13 Table 21. Employment and College Enrollment Employment and College Enrollment 25-21 6, 6, 14-18 Emp 19-21 Emp 22-24 Emp Enrollment Employment by Age Group 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, College Enrollment in UH System 13 Source of employment data: U.S. Bureau of Census, Local Employment Dynamics, QWI Online Source of enrollment data: University of Hawai i System, Institutional Research & Analysis Office