Market Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World January 29, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-530 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 0--1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US vs World ex-us MSCI 3- US vs EMU MSCI 5- US vs UK MSCI 7- US vs Japan MSCI 9- US vs EM MSCI 11- January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
US vs World ex-us MSCI 9.5 9.0.5 Figure 1. RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI: US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US MSCI (in both US$ and in local currencies, daily) 9.5 9.0.5.0.0 7.5 7.0.5 MSCI US / ACW ex-us In dollars In local currencies 7.5 7.0.5.0.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0.5.5.0.0 3.5 3.0 1995 199 1997 199 1999 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 3.5 3.0 5.5 Figure 2. MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US 1/19 5.5 5.0 5.0.5 MSCI Forward Earnings US (dollars) / ACW ex-us (local currencies).5.0.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 3.0 * Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page 3 / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
1.3 Figure 3. US vs World ex-us MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 130 0 1.2 1 1.1 All Country World MSCI Index Currency Ratio (local currency index/us$ index) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (=0) 95 9 97 9 99 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 21 0 90 0 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: MSCI and JP Morgan. Figure. MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs ALL COUNTRY WORLD ex-us Forward P/E* US (1.7) ACW ex-us (.) 1 1 1 1 1/1 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
Figure 5. US vs EMU MSCI RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI: US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY EMU MSCI (in both US$ and in local currencies, daily) US / EMU MSCI In dollars In local currencies 1995 199 1997 199 1999 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 Figure. MSCI FORWARD EARNING*: US vs EMU 9 1/1 9 MSCI Forward Earnings: US (dollars) / EMU (euros) 7 7 5 5 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page 5 / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
1. 1.5 1. 1.3 Figure 7. US vs EMU MSCI EMU MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & EURODOLLAR EMU MSCI Index Currency Ratio (local currency index/us$ index) Euro/US$ 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1.9.9..7 1/2 99 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1..7. * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: MSCI and JP Morgan. Figure. MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs EMU 1 Forward P/E* US (1.7) EMU (.7) 1 1 1 1/1 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
US vs UK MSCI 2.2 2.0 Figure 9. RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI: US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY UK MSCI (in both US$ and in local currencies, daily) 2.2 2.0 1. 1. 1. 1. MSCI US / UK In dollars In local currencies 1. 1. 1.2 1.2..... 1995 199 1997 199 1999 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19. 1.1 Figure. MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs UK 1.1.9 MSCI Forward Earnings US (dollars) / UK (pound) 1/1.9...7.7...5.5. 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19. * Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page 7 / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Figure 11. UK MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & POUND US vs UK MSCI UK MSCI Index Currency Ratio (local currency index/us$ index) Pound/US$.9. 1. 1.7.7 1. 1.5. 1. 1.3.5 1.2 1.1 95 9 97 9 99 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1. * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: MSCI and JP Morgan. 2 Figure. MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs UK 2 Forward P/E* US (1.7) UK (.) 1 1 1 1 1/1 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
Figure 13. US vs Japan MSCI RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI: US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY JAPAN MSCI (in both US$ and in local currencies, daily) 3 MSCI US / Japan In dollars In local currencies 3 2 2 1 1 0 1995 199 1997 199 1999 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 0.0 Figure. MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs JAPAN.0 3.5 3.0 MSCI Forward Earnings US (dollars) / Japan (yen) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1/1 2.0 1.5 1.5 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page 9 / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
.5.0 Figure 15. US vs Japan MSCI JAPAN MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Japan MSCI Index Currency Ratio (local currency index/us$ index) Yen/Dollar 10 0.35 0.30 0.25 0. 9 97 9 99 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 0 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: MSCI and JP Morgan. 35 Figure 1. MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs JAPAN 35 30 25 Forward P/E* US (1.7) Japan (15.1) 30 25 15 1/1 15 5 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 5 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
5 Figure 17. US vs EM MSCI RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI: US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY EM MSCI (in both US$ and in local currencies, daily) 5 MSCI US / EM In dollars In local currencies 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1995 199 1997 199 1999 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 0.03 Figure 1. MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs. EMERGING MARKETS.03.02 MSCI Forward Earnings US MSCI (dollars) / Emerging Markets (local currency).02.01 1/19.01.00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19.00 * Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page 11 / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
5 Figure 19. US vs EM MSCI EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 5 0 55 50 Emerging Markets MSCI Index Currency Ratio (local currency index/us$ index) 1/2 0 55 50 5 5 0 0 35 35 30 30 25 95 9 97 9 99 00 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 25 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: MSCI and JP Morgan. 1 Figure. MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs EMERGING MARKETS Forward P/E* US (1.7) Emerging Markets (.) 1 1 1 1/1 01 02 03 0 05 0 07 0 09 11 13 15 1 17 1 19 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Page / January 29, 1 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.
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