Economy Overview Navarro County, TX Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com
Economy Overview Contents. Economy........ Overview......................................................................................... 1... Historic.......&.. Projected......... Trends............................................................................... 4... Popula on......... Characteris cs........................................................................................ 8... Industry....... Characteris cs......................................................................................... 10... Workforce........... Characteris cs...................................................................................... 12... Educa onal........... Pipeline...................................................................................... 15... Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com
Economy Overview Economy Overview 48,620 18,588 $41.5K Popula on (2017) Jobs (2017) Median Household Income (2015) Popula on grew by 526 over the last 5 years and is projected to grow by 654 over the next 5 years. Jobs grew by 40 over the last 5 years and are projected to grow by 1,121 over the next 5 years. Median household income is $12.4K below the na onal median household income of $53.9K. As of 2017 the region's popula on increased by 1.1% since 2012, growing by 526. Popula on is expected to increase by 1.3% between 2017 and 2022, adding 654. From 2012 to 2017, jobs increased by 0.2% in Navarro County, TX from 18,548 to 18,588. This change fell short of the na onal growth rate of 7.2% by 7.0%. As the number of jobs increased, the labor force par cipa on rate decreased from 62.2% to 58.9% between 2012 and 2017. Concerning educa onal a ainment, 9.2% of Navarro County, TX residents possess a Bachelor's Degree (9.2% below the na onal average), and 8.2% hold an Associate's Degree (0.3% above the na onal average). The top three industries in 2017 are Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government), Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places, and Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing. Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 1
Economy Overview Economy Overview - Cont. Popula on (2017) Labor Force (2017) Jobs (2017) Cost of Living GRP Imports Exports Region 48,620 22,357 18,588 93.0 $1.62B $2.64B $1.97B Workforce Solu ons-north Central Texas Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington, TX 2,820,371 1,462,799 1,042,475 100.2 $126.76B $144.30B $100.84B 7,356,118 3,782,926 3,754,733 105.4 $484.04B $277.61B $348.54B Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 2
Economy Overview Economy Overview - Cont. 2017 Labor Force Breakdown Popula on A Total Working Age Popula on 37,949 A Not in Labor Force (15+) 15,592 48,620 Popula on A Labor Force 22,357 A Employed 21,443 A Unemployed 914 A Under 15 10,671 Educa onal A ainment Concerning educa onal a ainment, 9.2% of Navarro County, TX residents possess a Bachelor's Degree (9.2% below the na onal average), and 8.2% hold an Associate's Degree (0.3% above the na onal average). % of Popula on Popula on A Less Than 9th Grade 13.6% 4,295 A 9th Grade to 12th Grade 12.4% 3,910 A High School Diploma 29.3% 9,256 A Some College 22.2% 7,033 A Associate's Degree 8.2% 2,607 A Bachelor's Degree 9.2% 2,901 A Graduate Degree and Higher 5.2% 1,639 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 3
Historic & Projected Trends Popula on Trends Economy Overview As of 2017 the region's popula on increased by 1.1% since 2012, growing by 526. Popula on is expected to increase by 1.3% between 2017 and 2022, adding 654. Timeframe Popula on 2012 48,094 2013 48,022 2014 47,990 2015 48,255 2016 48,523 2017 48,620 2018 48,776 2019 48,919 2020 49,049 2021 49,167 2022 49,274 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 4
Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Job Trends Economy Overview From 2012 to 2017, jobs increased by 0.2% in Navarro County, TX from 18,548 to 18,588. This change fell short of the na onal growth rate of 7.2% by 7.0%. Timeframe Jobs 2012 18,548 2013 18,797 2014 18,839 2015 18,921 2016 18,607 2017 18,588 2018 18,881 2019 19,134 2020 19,359 2021 19,561 2022 19,709 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 5
Economy Overview Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Labor Force Par cipa on Rate Trends Timeframe Labor Force Par cipa on Rate 2012 61.98% 2013 62.36% 2014 61.53% 2015 60.52% 2016 59.83% January - April 2017 59.92% May 2017 59.44% June 2017 59.11% July 2017 58.91% Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 6
Economy Overview Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Unemployment Rate Trends Navarro County, TX had a July 2017 unemployment rate of 4.09%, decreasing from 7.27% 5 years before. Timeframe Unemployment Rate 2012 7.27% 2013 6.51% 2014 5.20% 2015 4.21% 2016 4.22% January - April 2017 4.80% May 2017 4.01% June 2017 4.50% July 2017 4.09% Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 7
Economy Overview Popula on Characteris cs 8,591 8,123 20,834 Millennials Re ring Soon Racial Diversity Navarro County, TX has 8,591 millennials (ages 20-34). The na onal average for an area this size is 10,070. Re rement risk is about average in Navarro County, TX. The na onal average for an area this size is 7,395 people 65 or older, while there are 8,123 here. Racial diversity is high in Navarro County, TX. The na onal average for an area this size is 18,795 racially diverse people, while there are 20,834 here. 3,164 3.56/1,000 28.47/1,000 Veterans Violent Crime Property Crime Navarro County, TX has 3,164 veterans. The na onal average for an area this size is 2,832. Navarro County, TX has 3.56 violent crimes per 1,000 people. The na onal rate is 3.75 per 1,000 people. Navarro County, TX has 28.47 property crimes per 1,000 people. The na onal rate is 24.22 per 1,000 people. Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 8
Economy Overview Popula on Characteris cs - Cont. Place of Work vs Place of Residence Understanding where talent in Navarro County, TX currently works compared to where talent lives can help you op mize site decisions. High Inbound Commuters High Outbound Commuters Where Talent Works Where Talent Lives ZIP Name 2017 Employment ZIP Name 2017 Workers 75110 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 13,630 75109 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 1,732 75151 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 1,155 75155 Rice, TX (in Navarro co 541 75144 Kerens, TX (in Navarro 417 75110 Corsicana, TX (in Nava 13,130 75109 Corsicana, TX (in Nava 2,091 75144 Kerens, TX (in Navarro 1,511 75155 Rice, TX (in Navarro co 1,275 76679 Purdon, TX (in Navarro 802 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 9
Economy Overview Industry Characteris cs Largest Industries Industry Jobs Na onal Average Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government) Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing Local Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals Home Health Care Services 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Industry 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs Change in Jobs (2012-2017) % Change 2017 Earnings Per Worker Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government) 2,585 2,613 28 +1% $42,745 Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places 875 1,086 211 +24% $17,237 Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing 688 812 124 +18% $29,653 Local Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals 788 773-15 -2% $56,746 Home Health Care Services 469 495 26 +6% $20,677 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 10
Economy Overview Industry Characteris cs - Cont Top Growing Industries Industry Jobs Change Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places Basic Chemical Manufacturing Specialized Freight Trucking Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing 0 50 100 150 200 Industry 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs Change in Jobs (2012-2017) % Change 2017 Earnings Per Worker Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places 875 1,086 211 +24% $17,237 Basic Chemical Manufacturing 45 196 151 +336% $52,328 Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing 688 812 124 +18% $29,653 Specialized Freight Trucking 69 193 124 +180% $50,550 Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing 369 491 122 +33% $57,539 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 11
Economy Overview Workforce Characteris cs Largest Occupa ons Occupa on Jobs Na onal Average Office Clerks, General Retail Salespersons Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Personal Care Aides 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Occupa on 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs Change in Jobs (2012-2017) % Change 2016 Avg. Hourly Earnings Office Clerks, General 607 608 1 +0% $14.68 Retail Salespersons 572 564-8 -1% $11.08 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 458 513 55 +12% $16.35 Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 377 474 97 +26% $8.83 Personal Care Aides 443 427-16 -4% $8.19 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 12
Economy Overview Workforce Characteris cs - Cont Top Growing Occupa ons Occupa on Jobs Change Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Team Assemblers Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers 0 20 40 60 80 Occupa on 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs Change in Jobs (2012-2017) % Change 2016 Avg. Hourly Earnings Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 377 474 97 +26% $8.83 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 458 513 55 +12% $16.35 Waiters and Waitresses 210 247 37 +18% $10.16 Team Assemblers 280 317 37 +13% $13.09 Cashiers 379 408 29 +8% $9.50 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 13
Economy Overview Workforce Characteris cs Top Posted Occupa ons Occupa on Jobs Change Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Retail Salespersons Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Occupa on Dec 2016 Unique Pos ngs Nov 2017 Unique Pos ngs Dec 2016 - Nov 2017 Avg. Unique 2016 Avg. Hourly Earnings Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 686 1,401 901 $16.35 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs 17 140 59 $11.90 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 41 49 49 $18.43 Retail Salespersons 18 40 29 $11.08 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 5 32 21 $11.37 Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 14
Economy Overview Educa onal Pipeline In 2016, there were 1,365 graduates in Navarro County, TX. This pipeline has grown by 5% over the last 5 years. The highest share of these graduates come from General Studies, Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic), and Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse. School Total Graduates (2016) Graduate Trend (2012-2016) Navarro College 1,365 Cer ficate Associate Bachelor Masters or Higher Emsi Q4 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 15
Economic Overview Navarro County, Texas December 27, 2017
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE... 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS... 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... 5 WAGE TRENDS... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT... 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 11 EDUCATION LEVELS... 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT... 12 FAQ... 13 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 2
Demographic Profile The population in Navarro County, Texas was 48,177 per American Community Survey data for 2012-2016. The region has a civilian labor force of 22,394 with a participation rate of 60.3%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in Navarro County, Texas, 15.2% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.8% in the nation. The median household income in Navarro County, Texas is $43,388 and the median house value is $83,800. Summary 1 Percent Value Navarro County, Texas USA Navarro County, Texas USA Texas Texas Demographics Population (ACS) 48,177 26,956,435 318,558,162 Male 49.2% 49.6% 49.2% 23,714 13,379,165 156,765,322 Female 50.8% 50.4% 50.8% 24,463 13,577,270 161,792,840 Median Age 2 38.1 34.2 37.7 Under 18 Years 26.3% 26.5% 23.1% 12,693 7,132,476 73,612,438 18 to 24 Years 8.4% 10.2% 9.8% 4,038 2,738,831 31,296,577 25 to 34 Years 11.5% 14.5% 13.6% 5,561 3,915,774 43,397,907 35 to 44 Years 12.0% 13.5% 12.7% 5,780 3,642,463 40,548,400 45 to 54 Years 13.1% 12.9% 13.6% 6,320 3,471,589 43,460,466 55 to 64 Years 12.4% 11.0% 12.6% 5,989 2,958,735 40,061,742 65 to 74 Years 9.5% 6.8% 8.3% 4,592 1,828,562 26,355,308 75 Years, and Over 6.7% 4.7% 6.2% 3,204 1,268,005 19,825,324 Race: White 76.4% 74.8% 73.3% 36,813 20,174,403 233,657,078 Race: Black or African American 13.6% 11.9% 12.6% 6,569 3,221,133 40,241,818 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 897 128,145 2,597,817 Race: Asian 0.6% 4.4% 5.2% 299 1,175,423 16,614,625 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 506 22,248 560,021 Race: Some Other Race 4.4% 5.8% 4.8% 2,135 1,561,683 15,133,856 Race: Two or More Races 2.0% 2.5% 3.1% 958 673,400 9,752,947 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 25.6% 38.6% 17.3% 12,347 10,413,150 55,199,107 Population Growth Population (Pop Estimates) 5 48,523 27,862,596 323,127,513 Population Annual Average Growth 5 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 119 450,302 2,474,760 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 60.3% 64.5% 63.3% 22,394 13,219,523 159,807,099 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 8 92,754 1,011,641 Veterans, Age 18-64 4.9% 5.4% 5.1% 1,357 895,966 10,165,671 Median Household Income 2 $43,388 $54,727 $55,322 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 3
Summary 1 Percent Value Navarro Navarro County, Texas USA County, Texas USA Texas Texas Per Capita Income $21,347 $27,828 $29,829 Poverty Level (of all people) 19.9% 16.7% 15.1% 9,418 4,397,307 46,932,225 Households Receiving Food Stamps 20.6% 13.1% 13.0% 3,588 1,220,336 15,360,951 Mean Commute Time (minutes) 25.0 25.9 26.1 Commute via Public Transportation 0.1% 1.5% 5.1% 20 188,919 7,476,312 Union Membership 3 4.1% 4.2% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 24.0% 16.5% 11.6% 5,676 2,303,492 19,478,050 High School Graduate 28.2% 24.7% 26.1% 6,671 3,452,488 43,788,541 Some College, No Degree 23.6% 22.7% 21.5% 5,576 3,174,603 36,025,193 Associate's Degree 9.0% 7.3% 8.9% 2,122 1,015,736 14,962,488 Bachelor's Degree 10.0% 19.4% 20.2% 2,376 2,710,069 33,845,524 Postgraduate Degree 5.2% 9.5% 11.6% 1,229 1,332,173 19,368,719 Housing Total Housing Units 20,478 10,441,643 134,054,899 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $83,800 $142,700 $184,700 Homeowner Vacancy 3.4% 1.6% 1.8% 417 94,289 1,395,797 Rental Vacancy 3.9% 7.6% 6.2% 234 294,244 2,855,844 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 32.4% 38.1% 36.4% 5,634 3,542,096 42,835,169 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 7.6% 5.6% 9.0% 1,324 523,186 10,562,847 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 577 390,416 4,433,703 Disconnected Youth 4 5.2% 3.2% 2.8% 153 48,770 485,589 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 41.0% 35.2% 34.7% 4,870 2,392,053 24,318,038 With a Disability, Age 18-64 16.8% 9.8% 10.3% 4,605 1,608,392 20,188,257 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 48.0% 44.2% 41.0% 2,212 710,611 8,278,834 Foreign Born 11.3% 16.7% 13.2% 5,431 4,494,345 42,194,354 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 11.5% 14.1% 8.5% 5,144 3,518,972 25,440,956 Source: JobsEQ 1. American Community Survey 2012-2016, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 5. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 4
Employment Trends As of 2017Q3, total employment for Navarro County, Texas was 18,839 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q3, employment increased 0.8% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Navarro County, Texas was 3.6% as of October 2017. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.4%. One year earlier, in October 2016, the unemployment rate in Navarro County, Texas was 4.5%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through October 2017. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in Navarro County, Texas earned annual wages of $34,626 as of 2017Q3. Average annual wages per worker increased 2.5% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $54,666 in the nation as of 2017Q3. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 8.1% lower in Navarro County, Texas than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Navarro County, Texas $34,626 91.9 $37,685 Texas $54,798 94.4 $58,048 USA $54,666 100.0 $54,666 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q2, imputed by Chmura where necessary. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in Navarro County, Texas is Manufacturing, employing 3,053 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Health Care and Social Assistance (2,531 workers) and Educational Services (2,358). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (LQ = 4.65), Manufacturing (1.97), and Utilities (1.69). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Sectors in Navarro County, Texas with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and Enterprises ($91,066), Utilities ($75,484), and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($52,602). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Accommodation and Food Services (+202 jobs), Manufacturing (+172), and Health Care and Social Assistance (+107). Over the next 10 years, employment in Navarro County, Texas is projected to expand by 1,218 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.2% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+616 jobs), Construction (+238), and Accommodation and Food Services (+99). Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 7
Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Total Approx Sep Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 1,246 $9,978 4.65-42 -0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1,352 35 0.3% 68 $52,602 0.91-88 -15.3% -4.2% -5.3% 73 8 1.1% 22 Utilities 169 $75,484 1.69-13 -1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 156 8 0.5% 23 Construction 1,288 $44,016 1.23 61 1.0% 3.2% 3.4% 1,374 238 1.7% 31 Manufacturing 3,053 $42,569 1.97 172 1.2% -0.3% 0.8% 3,065-220 -0.7% 42 Wholesale Trade 821 $41,949 1.12 63 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 861-1 0.0% 44 Retail Trade 1,941 $26,265 0.96 32 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 2,644 84 0.4% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 743 $48,450 0.94-146 -3.5% 3.3% 2.6% 819 66 0.9% 51 Information 152 $35,831 0.40 5 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 143-9 -0.6% 52 Finance and Insurance 477 $47,646 0.64 14 0.6% 2.3% 1.1% 456 19 0.4% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 297 $45,456 0.93 33 2.4% 3.2% 2.0% 310 17 0.6% 297 $51,804 0.24-8 -0.5% 3.3% 2.3% 266 30 1.0% 27 $91,066 0.10-37 -15.9% 7.8% 2.7% 25 2 0.6% 787 $29,969 0.64 91 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 952 83 1.0% 61 Educational Services 2,358 $32,682 1.52-31 -0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2,204 64 0.3% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,531 $34,781 0.94 107 0.9% 2.9% 2.5% 2,640 616 2.2% 135 $19,157 0.36 26 4.3% 3.5% 2.3% 197 12 0.8% 1,214 $15,896 0.72 202 3.7% 3.9% 3.0% 2,039 99 0.8% 639 $22,683 0.77-45 -1.3% 1.0% -0.2% 748 42 0.6% 92 Public Administration 576 $46,870 0.65-297 -8.0% 0.7% 0.1% 539 23 0.4% 99 Unclassified 20 $19,518 0.43 18 61.4% 32.6% 17.1% 23 1 0.6% Total - All Industries 18,839 $34,626 1.00 117 0.1% 2.2% 1.7% 21,162 1,218 0.6% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in Navarro County, Texas is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 2,579 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Production Occupations (1,989 workers) and Sales and Related Occupations (1,749). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Production Occupations (LQ = 1.74), Education, Training, and Library Occupations (1.53), and Management Occupations (1.46). Occupation groups in Navarro County, Texas with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($96,300), Legal Occupations ($84,400), and Architecture and Engineering Occupations ($75,900). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.1% among Management Occupations to 6.1% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in Navarro County, Texas is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Construction and Extraction Occupations (+164 jobs) and Personal Care and Service Occupations (+160). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support Occupations (2,882 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (2,427). Occupation Snapshot in Navarro County, Texas Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Total Sep Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11-13- 15-17- 19-21- 23-25- 27- Management 1,651 $96,300 1.46 18 1.1% -5-0.1% 1.8% 1.5% 26 1,262 94 0.6% Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 468 $60,700 0.48 16 2.9% -5-0.2% 2.4% 1.6% 9 427 43 0.9% 142 $69,600 0.26 6 2.9% 0 0.0% 3.3% 2.4% 5 97 10 0.7% 137 $75,900 0.43 5 3.0% -13-1.8% 0.0% 1.0% 3 103 8 0.6% 81 $56,400 0.53 2 2.7% -4-0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 4 73 6 0.8% 311 $42,700 1.03 6 1.9% 1 0.0% 2.0% 1.9% 5 357 60 1.8% Legal 87 $84,400 0.56 1 1.3% -11-2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0 55 10 1.1% Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 29- Healthcare Practitioners and 1,621 $42,400 1.53 70 4.7% 14 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 35 1,357 82 0.5% 168 $39,100 0.50 5 2.8% -11-1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 6 168 9 0.5% 834 $72,700 0.78 16 1.8% 9 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 30 489 156 1.7% Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 9
Occupation Snapshot in Navarro County, Texas Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Total Sep Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 31-33- 35-37- 39-41- 43-45- 47-49- 51-53- 00- Technical Healthcare Support 570 $26,000 1.08 31 5.0% 7 0.3% 2.6% 2.2% 21 708 155 2.4% Protective Service 288 $37,500 0.71 9 2.7% -182-9.3% 1.6% 1.0% 3 275 12 0.4% Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service 1,367 $20,600 0.84 102 6.1% 201 3.2% 3.8% 2.9% 83 2,387 110 0.8% 630 $23,500 0.95 35 4.8% 0 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 22 794 48 0.7% 652 $20,900 0.89 34 4.7% -33-1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 11 1,036 160 2.2% Sales and Related 1,749 $33,600 0.90 78 4.0% 60 0.7% 2.2% 1.3% 112 2,427 72 0.4% Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 2,579 $31,300 0.93 125 4.3% 25 0.2% 2.3% 1.7% 54 2,882 35 0.1% 170 $23,500 1.36 9 5.7% -26-2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0 249-2 -0.1% 974 $37,100 1.14 66 5.8% 22 0.5% 1.9% 2.6% 7 1,059 164 1.6% 805 $40,900 1.12 29 3.3% 41 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 27 772 47 0.6% Production 1,989 $31,700 1.74 117 5.8% 80 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% 22 2,188-128 -0.7% Transportation and Material Moving 1,565 $29,100 1.23 96 5.5% -52-0.7% 2.7% 2.2% 59 1,906 66 0.4% Total - All Occupations 18,839 $38,700 1.00 n/a n/a 117 0.1% 2.2% 1.7% 544 21,071 1,218 0.6% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2017Q1, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 10
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in Navarro County, Texas with the highest relative concentration is Agricultural with a location quotient of 4.50. This cluster employs 1,246 workers in the region with an average wage of $9,972. Employment in the Agricultural cluster is projected to expand in the region about 0.3% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in Navarro County, Texas is projected to grow 0.6% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.4% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 0.8% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.0% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q3. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 11
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in Navarro County, Texas contracted 2.6%. This follows a contraction of 0.9% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in Navarro County, Texas was $1,528,406,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Of the sectors in Navarro County, Texas, Manufacturing contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $410,247,000 The next-largest contributions came from Educational Services ($134,019,000); Health Care and Social Assistance ($123,566,000); and Construction ($116,174,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 12
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is separation demand? Separation demand is the number of jobs required due to separations labor force exits (including retirements) and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that separation demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the separation demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 13