Economy Overview Navarro County, TX Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com
Economy Overview Contents. Economy........ Overview......................................................................................... 1... Historic.......&.. Projected......... Trends............................................................................... 4... Popula on......... Characteris cs........................................................................................ 8... Industry....... Characteris cs......................................................................................... 10... Workforce........... Characteris cs...................................................................................... 12... Educa onal........... Pipeline...................................................................................... 14... Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com
Economy Overview Economy Overview 48,523 18,574 $41.5K Popula on (2016) Jobs (2016) Median Household Income (2015) Popula on grew by 435 over the last 5 years and is projected to grow by 644 over the next 5 years. Jobs grew by 472 over the last 5 years and are projected to grow by 1,306 over the next 5 years. Median household income is $12.4K below the na onal median household income of $53.9K. As of 2016 the region's popula on increased by 0.9% since 2011, growing by 435. Popula on is expected to increase by 1.3% between 2016 and 2021, adding 644. From 2011 to 2016, jobs increased by 2.6% in Navarro County, TX from 18,102 to 18,574. This change fell short of the na onal growth rate of 8.8% by 6.2%. As the number of jobs increased, the labor force par cipa on rate decreased from 61.0% to 60.3% between 2011 and 2016. Concerning educa onal a ainment, 9.6% of Navarro County, TX residents possess a Bachelor's Degree (8.8% below the na onal average), and 8.2% hold an Associate's Degree (0.2% above the na onal average). The top three industries in 2016 are Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government), Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places, and Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing. Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 1
Economy Overview Economy Overview - Cont. Popula on (2016) Labor Force (2016) Jobs (2016) Cost of Living GRP Imports Exports Region 48,523 22,860 18,574 93.0 $1.70B $3.02B $2.36B Workforce Solu ons-north Central Texas 2,759,710 1,446,190 1,029,644 100.2 $133.33B $169.58B $131.28B Hood County, TX 56,859 25,144 18,794 97.6 $2.11B $3.43B $2.26B Palo Pinto County, TX 28,053 12,950 9,657 94.0 $1.15B $1.81B $1.66B Parker County, TX 129,445 60,883 38,407 98.1 $4.66B $8.04B $5.10B Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 2
Economy Overview Economy Overview - Cont. 2016 Labor Force Breakdown Popula on A Total Working Age Popula on 37,928 A Not in Labor Force (15+) 15,068 48,523 Popula on A Labor Force 22,860 A Employed 21,957 A Unemployed 903 A Under 15 10,595 Educa onal A ainment Concerning educa onal a ainment, 9.6% of Navarro County, TX residents possess a Bachelor's Degree (8.8% below the na onal average), and 8.2% hold an Associate's Degree (0.2% above the na onal average). % of Popula on Popula on A Less Than 9th Grade 13.1% 4,124 A 9th Grade to 12th Grade 12.2% 3,852 A High School Diploma 29.4% 9,272 A Some College 22.3% 7,043 A Associate's Degree 8.2% 2,573 A Bachelor's Degree 9.6% 3,021 A Graduate Degree and Higher 5.2% 1,654 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 3
Historic & Projected Trends Popula on Trends Economy Overview As of 2016 the region's popula on increased by 0.9% since 2011, growing by 435. Popula on is expected to increase by 1.3% between 2016 and 2021, adding 644. Timeframe Popula on 2011 48,088 2012 48,094 2013 48,022 2014 47,990 2015 48,255 2016 48,523 2017 48,620 2018 48,776 2019 48,919 2020 49,049 2021 49,167 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 4
Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Job Trends Economy Overview From 2011 to 2016, jobs increased by 2.6% in Navarro County, TX from 18,102 to 18,574. This change fell short of the na onal growth rate of 8.8% by 6.2%. Timeframe Jobs 2011 18,102 2012 18,531 2013 18,781 2014 18,821 2015 18,916 2016 18,574 2017 18,928 2018 19,227 2019 19,489 2020 19,723 2021 19,879 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 5
Economy Overview Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Labor Force Par cipa on Rate Trends Timeframe Labor Force Par cipa on Rate 2011 61.63% 2012 61.98% 2013 62.36% 2014 61.53% 2015 60.52% January - September 2016 59.58% October 2016 60.77% November 2016 60.72% December 2016 60.27% Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 6
Economy Overview Historic & Projected Trends - Cont. Unemployment Rate Trends Navarro County, TX had a December 2016 unemployment rate of 3.95%, decreasing from 8.11% 5 years before. Timeframe Unemployment Rate 2011 8.11% 2012 7.27% 2013 6.51% 2014 5.20% 2015 4.21% January - September 2016 4.28% October 2016 4.16% November 2016 4.00% December 2016 3.95% Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 7
Economy Overview Popula on Characteris cs 8,537 7,998 20,561 Millennials Re ring Soon Racial Diversity Navarro County, TX has 8,537 millennials (ages 20-34). The na onal average for an area this size is 10,032. Re rement risk is high in Navarro County, TX. The na onal average for an area this size is 7,178 people 65 or older, while there are 7,998 here. Racial diversity is high in Navarro County, TX. The na onal average for an area this size is 18,486 racially diverse people, while there are 20,561 here. 3,164 3.56/1,000 28.47/1,000 Veterans Violent Crime Property Crime Navarro County, TX has 3,164 veterans. The na onal average for an area this size is 2,832. Navarro County, TX has 3.56 violent crimes per 1,000 people. The na onal rate is 3.75 per 1,000 people. Navarro County, TX has 28.47 property crimes per 1,000 people. The na onal rate is 24.22 per 1,000 people. Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 8
Economy Overview Popula on Characteris cs - Cont. Place of Work vs Place of Residence Understanding where talent in Navarro County, TX currently works compared to where talent lives can help you op mize site decisions. High Inbound Commuters High Outbound Commuters Where Talent Works Where Talent Lives ZIP Name 2016 Employment ZIP Name 2016 Workers 75110 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 13,549 75109 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 1,493 75151 Corsicana, TX (in Navar 1,373 75155 Rice, TX (in Navarro co 523 75144 Kerens, TX (in Navarro 486 75110 Corsicana, TX (in Nava 12,998 75109 Corsicana, TX (in Nava 1,916 75144 Kerens, TX (in Navarro 1,497 75155 Rice, TX (in Navarro co 1,423 76679 Purdon, TX (in Navarro 826 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 9
Economy Overview Industry Characteris cs Largest Industries Industry Jobs Na onal Average Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government) Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing Local Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals Home Health Care Services 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Industry 2011 Jobs 2016 Jobs Change in Jobs (2011-2016) % Change 2016 Earnings Per Worker Educa on and Hospitals (Local Government) 2,590 2,621 31 +1% $42,322 Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places 807 1,092 285 +35% $17,265 Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing 647 830 183 +28% $19,464 Local Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals 784 774-10 -1% $56,309 Home Health Care Services 473 497 24 +5% $20,249 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 10
Economy Overview Industry Characteris cs - Cont Top Growing Industries Industry Jobs Change Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing Specialized Freight Trucking U lity System Construc on 0 50 100 150 200 250 Industry 2011 Jobs 2016 Jobs Change in Jobs (2011-2016) % Change 2016 Earnings Per Worker Restaurants and Other Ea ng Places 807 1,092 285 +35% $17,265 Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing 278 494 216 +78% $62,004 Sugar and Confec onery Product Manufacturing 647 830 183 +28% $19,464 Specialized Freight Trucking 64 192 128 +200% $50,753 U lity System Construc on 281 406 125 +44% $59,064 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 11
Economy Overview Workforce Characteris cs Largest Occupa ons Occupa on Jobs Na onal Average Office Clerks, General Retail Salespersons Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Personal Care Aides 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Occupa on 2011 Jobs 2016 Jobs Change in Jobs (2011-2016) % Change 2016 Avg. Hourly Earnings Office Clerks, General 599 612 13 +2% $14.68 Retail Salespersons 564 564 0 0% $11.04 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 482 509 27 +6% $16.34 Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 365 472 107 +29% $8.83 Personal Care Aides 401 433 32 +8% $8.18 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 12
Economy Overview Workforce Characteris cs - Cont Top Growing Occupa ons Occupa on Jobs Change Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Team Assemblers Waiters and Waitresses Construc on Laborers Cashiers 0 20 40 60 80 100 Occupa on 2011 Jobs 2016 Jobs Change in Jobs (2011-2016) % Change 2016 Avg. Hourly Earnings Combined Food Prepara on and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 365 472 107 +29% $8.83 Team Assemblers 248 315 67 +27% $13.08 Waiters and Waitresses 189 252 63 +33% $10.16 Construc on Laborers 217 276 59 +27% $13.52 Cashiers 366 413 47 +13% $9.50 Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 13
Economy Overview Educa onal Pipeline In 2016, there were 1,365 graduates in Navarro County, TX. This pipeline has grown by 5% over the last 5 years. The highest share of these graduates come from General Studies, Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic), and Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse. School Total Graduates (2016) Graduate Trend (2012-2016) Navarro College 1,365 Cer ficate Associate Bachelor Masters or Higher Emsi Q3 2017 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com 14
Economic Overview Navarro County, Texas October 19, 2017
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE... 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS... 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... 5 WAGE TRENDS... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT... 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 11 EDUCATION LEVELS... 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT... 12 FAQ... 13 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 2
Demographic Profile In 2016, the population in Navarro County, Texas was 48,523. Between 2006 and 2016, the region s population grew at an annual average rate of 0.2%. The region has a civilian labor force of 22,635 with a participation rate of 61.1%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in Navarro County, Texas, 15.8% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.3% in the nation. The median household income in Navarro County, Texas is $41,505 and the median house value is $81,300. Summary 1 Percent Value Navarro Navarro County, Texas Texas USA County, Texas Texas USA Demographics Population 6 48,523 27,862,596 323,127,513 Population Annual Average Growth 6 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 119 450,302 2,474,760 Median Age 2,4 37.1 33.6 37.2 Under 18 Years 4 27.1% 27.3% 24.0% 12,923 6,865,824 74,181,467 18 to 24 Years 4 8.9% 10.2% 9.9% 4,259 2,572,969 30,672,088 25 to 34 Years 4 11.4% 14.4% 13.3% 5,464 3,613,473 41,063,948 35 to 44 Years 4 12.4% 13.8% 13.3% 5,898 3,458,382 41,070,606 45 to 54 Years 4 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 6,617 3,435,336 45,006,716 55 to 64 Years 4 12.0% 10.3% 11.8% 5,711 2,597,691 36,482,729 65 to 74 Years 4 8.1% 5.9% 7.0% 3,856 1,472,256 21,713,429 75 Years, and Over 4 6.3% 4.5% 6.0% 3,007 1,129,630 18,554,555 Race: White 4 69.4% 70.4% 72.4% 33,142 17,701,552 223,553,265 Race: Black or African American 4 13.8% 11.8% 12.6% 6,606 2,979,598 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 4 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 305 170,972 2,932,248 Race: Asian 4 0.5% 3.8% 4.8% 253 964,596 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 4 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 382 21,656 540,013 Race: Some Other Race 4 12.5% 10.5% 6.2% 5,978 2,628,186 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 4 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 1,069 679,001 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4 23.8% 37.6% 16.3% 11,345 9,460,921 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 61.1% 64.3% 63.3% 22,635 13,006,330 158,897,824 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 27 95,458 1,015,464 Veterans, Age 18-64 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 1,604 927,000 10,750,884 Median Household Income 2 $41,505 $53,207 $53,889 Per Capita Income $20,697 $26,999 $28,930 Poverty Level (of all people) 20.7% 17.3% 15.5% 9,794 4,472,451 47,749,043 Households Receiving Food Stamps 20.3% 13.4% 13.2% 3,556 1,229,337 15,399,651 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 3
Summary 1 Percent Value Navarro Navarro County, Texas USA County, Texas USA Texas Texas Mean Commute Time (minutes) 24.9 25.6 25.9 Commute via Public Transportation 0.1% 1.6% 5.1% 10 188,363 7,362,038 Union Membership 3 4.1% 4.2% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 22.8% 16.8% 11.8% 5,411 2,320,136 19,736,243 High School Graduate 28.3% 24.7% 26.4% 6,724 3,407,798 43,982,863 Some College, No Degree 24.4% 22.9% 21.7% 5,799 3,159,912 36,187,232 Associate's Degree 8.7% 7.2% 8.8% 2,068 987,726 14,742,654 Bachelor's Degree 10.8% 19.1% 19.9% 2,572 2,638,055 33,245,950 Postgraduate Degree 4.9% 9.3% 11.4% 1,173 1,283,284 18,952,103 Housing Total Housing Units 20,431 10,305,607 133,351,840 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $81,300 $136,000 $178,600 Homeowner Vacancy 3.5% 1.7% 1.9% 426 101,302 1,492,691 Rental Vacancy 4.0% 7.8% 6.4% 248 298,444 2,949,366 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 33.5% 37.8% 36.1% 5,853 3,455,426 42,214,214 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 8.5% 5.8% 9.1% 1,479 530,789 10,628,474 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 571 388,995 4,451,334 Disconnected Youth 5 6.3% 3.4% 3.0% 181 51,037 518,859 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 41.6% 35.3% 34.8% 4,944 2,371,156 24,408,909 With a Disability, Age 18-64 17.4% 9.9% 10.3% 4,810 1,596,252 19,985,588 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 47.6% 44.1% 41.0% 2,288 703,313 8,185,456 Foreign Born 11.0% 16.6% 13.2% 5,288 4,399,080 41,717,420 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 11.1% 14.2% 8.6% 4,947 3,486,872 25,410,756 Source: JobsEQ 1. ACS 2011-2015, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census 2010 5. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006 Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 4
Employment Trends As of 2017Q2, total employment for Navarro County, Texas was 18,772 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q2, employment declined 0.6% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Navarro County, Texas was 3.7% as of August 2017. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.5%. One year earlier, in August 2016, the unemployment rate in Navarro County, Texas was 4.3%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August 2017. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in Navarro County, Texas earned annual wages of $33,899 as of 2017Q2. Average annual wages per worker decreased 0.1% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $53,284 in the nation as of 2017Q2. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 10.7% lower in Navarro County, Texas than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Navarro County, Texas $33,899 89.3 $37,981 Texas $53,426 93.9 $56,871 USA $53,284 100.0 $53,284 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in Navarro County, Texas is Manufacturing, employing 3,133 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Health Care and Social Assistance (2,609 workers) and Educational Services (2,305). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (LQ = 4.71), Manufacturing (2.03), and Utilities (1.68). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Sectors in Navarro County, Texas with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and Enterprises ($88,931), Utilities ($82,045), and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($53,946). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Manufacturing (+314 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+228), and Accommodation and Food Services (+126). Over the next 10 years, employment in Navarro County, Texas is projected to expand by 1,013 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+695 jobs), Construction (+237), and Retail Trade (+165). Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 7
Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Total Approx Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 1,275 $9,709 4.71-14 -0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 434-77 -0.6% 43 $53,946 0.57-131 -24.5% -3.3% -4.9% 11 4 1.0% 22 Utilities 168 $82,045 1.68-13 -1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 43 0 0.0% 23 Construction 1,293 $43,962 1.25 121 2.0% 3.3% 3.2% 274 237 1.7% 31 Manufacturing 3,133 $41,195 2.03 314 2.1% -0.2% 0.8% 685-361 -1.2% 42 Wholesale Trade 748 $40,835 1.02-4 -0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 167 27 0.4% 44 Retail Trade 1,989 $25,917 0.98 88 0.9% 2.4% 1.3% 638 165 0.8% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 742 $46,916 0.94-180 -4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 194 13 0.2% 51 Information 144 $34,750 0.38-4 -0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 33-13 -1.0% 52 Finance and Insurance 464 $47,050 0.62 10 0.4% 2.4% 1.1% 111 15 0.3% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 292 $43,863 0.92 26 1.9% 3.0% 1.9% 66 13 0.4% 316 $52,847 0.26 10 0.6% 3.6% 2.4% 68 27 0.8% 34 $88,931 0.12-35 -13.3% 7.4% 2.9% 7 1 0.4% 730 $29,735 0.60 19 0.5% 2.7% 2.6% 169 59 0.8% 61 Educational Services 2,305 $32,193 1.49-77 -0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 489 94 0.4% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,609 $35,406 0.98 228 1.8% 2.8% 2.5% 559 695 2.4% 128 $18,786 0.34 19 3.3% 3.8% 2.3% 40 9 0.7% 1,115 $15,971 0.66 126 2.4% 4.1% 3.0% 398 58 0.5% 649 $22,279 0.78-34 -1.0% 1.1% -0.2% 166 29 0.4% 92 Public Administration 583 $46,470 0.65-283 -7.6% 0.7% 0.1% 143 17 0.3% 99 Unclassified 13 $16,396 0.35 10 30.3% 24.8% 13.2% 3 1 0.5% Total - All Industries 18,772 $33,899 1.00 193 0.2% 2.3% 1.7% 4,663 1,013 0.5% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in Navarro County, Texas is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 2,586 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Production Occupations (2,021 workers) and Sales and Related Occupations (1,743). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Production Occupations (LQ = 1.77), Education, Training, and Library Occupations (1.49), and Management Occupations (1.41). Occupation groups in Navarro County, Texas with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($96,300), Legal Occupations ($84,400), and Architecture and Engineering Occupations ($75,900). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 0.9% among Legal Occupations to 7.5% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in Navarro County, Texas is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.7% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (+195 jobs) and Healthcare Support Occupations (+179). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Management Occupations (720 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (582). Occupation Snapshot in Navarro County, Texas Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- Management Occupations 13-15- 17-19- 21-23- 25- Business and Financial Operations Occupations Computer and Mathematical Occupations Architecture and Engineering Occupations Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations Community and Social Service Occupations 1,602 $96,300 1.41 18 1.1% 31 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 68 720-9 -0.1% 460 $60,700 0.48 19 3.3% -6-0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 31 110 35 0.7% 139 $69,600 0.25 7 2.9% -3-0.4% 3.4% 2.5% 20 20 10 0.7% 138 $75,900 0.43 6 3.3% -9-1.3% 0.1% 1.0% 14 36 0 0.0% 83 $56,400 0.53 3 3.2% -3-0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 9 28 6 0.7% 314 $42,700 1.05 3 1.1% 11 0.7% 2.1% 2.0% 8 72 46 1.4% Legal Occupations 95 $84,400 0.61 1 0.9% -4-0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0 20 6 0.6% Education, Training, and Library Occupations 1,579 $42,400 1.49 38 2.5% -26-0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 17 336 85 0.5% 27- Arts, Design, 170 $39,100 0.51 7 3.4% -10-1.1% 1.6% 1.1% 11 62 2 0.1% Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 9
Occupation Snapshot in Navarro County, Texas Current Historical Forecast Total Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Navarro County, Texas Texas USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 29-31- 33-35- 37-39- 41-43- 45-47- 49- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Healthcare Support Occupations Protective Service Occupations Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Personal Care and Service Occupations Sales and Related Occupations Office and Administrative Support Occupations Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Construction and Extraction Occupations Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 51- Production Occupations 53-00- Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 874 $72,700 0.82 14 1.5% 53 1.3% 2.4% 1.7% 85 208 195 2.0% 590 $26,000 1.11 30 4.6% 30 1.1% 2.4% 2.2% 25 141 179 2.7% 292 $37,500 0.72 12 3.2% -174-8.9% 1.7% 1.0% 6 81 15 0.5% 1,306 $20,600 0.81 128 7.5% 133 2.2% 3.9% 2.9% 133 556 61 0.5% 669 $23,500 1.01 45 5.7% 13 0.4% 1.9% 1.0% 41 154 28 0.4% 676 $20,900 0.93 37 4.7% -10-0.3% 3.0% 2.1% 24 182 153 2.1% 1,743 $33,600 0.90 100 4.8% 64 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 182 582 108 0.6% 2,586 $31,300 0.93 126 4.1% 30 0.2% 2.4% 1.7% 124 572 62 0.2% 163 $23,500 1.32 10 6.4% -35-3.8% 1.2% 1.3% 3 61-9 -0.5% 954 $37,100 1.14 79 6.7% 36 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 26 193 156 1.5% 792 $40,900 1.11 36 4.0% 44 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 87 201 30 0.4% 2,021 $31,700 1.77 123 5.8% 150 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% 70 550-171 -0.9% 1,525 $29,100 1.21 112 6.3% -123-1.5% 2.8% 2.3% 157 382 24 0.2% Total - All Occupations 18,772 $38,700 1.00 n/a n/a 193 0.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1,158 5,266 1,013 0.5% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 10
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in Navarro County, Texas with the highest relative concentration is Chemical with a location quotient of 5.10. This cluster employs 893 workers in the region with an average wage of $38,670. Employment in the Chemical cluster is projected to contract in the region about 2.0% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in Navarro County, Texas is projected to grow 0.5% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.5% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 0.6% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.1% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 11
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in Navarro County, Texas contracted 2.6%. This follows a contraction of 0.9% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in Navarro County, Texas was $1,528,406,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Of the sectors in Navarro County, Texas, Manufacturing contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $410,247,000 The next-largest contributions came from Educational Services ($134,019,000); Health Care and Social Assistance ($123,566,000); and Construction ($116,174,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 12
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Source: JobsEQ, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright 2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 13