Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: ese Experiences May, BOJ-IMES Conference Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Chart Demographic Changes in 6 million Child and aged population Working-age population Total population Employed persons 8 6 CY 97 7 8 8 9 9 6 Note: Child population, working-age population, and aged population refer to the number of persons under years, those between and 6 years, and those over 6 years, respectively. Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Chart Effects of Rapid Population Aging Real GDP Growth Rate per Working-Age Person Real GDP Growth Rate per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate. Average for -, percent. Average for -, percent. Average for -, percent....8.8.8.... JP US UK Euro area DE FR. JP US UK Euro area DE FR. JP US UK Euro area DE FR Note: A working-age person refers to those between and 6 years old. Sources: World Bank; Haver. Chart Growth thrate of fworking-age Population year-on-year change, percent - - Korea China - CY 9 6 7 8 9 Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; United Nations.
Chart ese Age Structure in the High-Growth Era 9 million....6.8... age Males 9 Females Males 8 97 million....6.8... age 9 Females 8 7 7 6 6.. million. 8.8 6.6...... million.8.6... Males Females Working-age population ratio 6.8% 6.8% Males Females Working-age population l ratio 67.7% 7% 67.8% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Chart Total and Working-Age g Population Growth Rate of the Working-Age Population Growth Rate of the Population. year-on-year change, percent. year-on-year change, percent......... -. -. -. United Kingdom France -. Germany Advanced economies' average -. CY 9 6 7 8 9 Growth Rate in, percent -. -. -. -. 9 6 7 8 9 United Kingdom France Germany Advanced economies' average Working-age population -.7 7 8.8 9.9 9.9 -.. Total population..89.6.8 -.6. Sources: United Nations; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Chart 6 Revisions i in the ese Total Fertility Rate... in 976 in986 Replacement ratio.8. in99 in997 in. in 6. CY 96 7 76 8 88 9 6 8 6 8 6 in Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. 6 Chart 7 Newspaper pp Citations on Low Birth Rate and Population Aging 6,,, number of articles "Low birth rate" or "population aging" "Bubble" "Non-performing loan",,, CY 99 9 9 97 99 7 9 Note: Number of articles found in The Nikkei, The Nikkei Business Daily, and The Nikkei MJ. Source: Nikkei Telecom. 7
Chart 8 Decomposition of Real GDP Growth in 6 average of year-on-year changes, percent Productivity (real GDP per employed person) the number of employed persons Real GDP +.9 +.8 - - +. -. -.6 -.8 -. 97s 98s 99s s s s s Note: Fiscal-year basis. The rates of change in the number of employed persons from the s onward are calculated using the population pp outlook (medium variant) and the projected labor force participation p rates (assuming the labor force participation rates in each age/sex group to remain the same as those in ). Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. 8 Chart 9 Labor Participation of Female Workers Labor Participation of Female Workers in percent 9 8 7 6 9 8 7 6 Comparison of Labor Participation of Female Workers in percent 99 Germany Sweden age - - - - - - - - - 6-6- - - - - - - - - - 6-6- Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; OECD. 9
Chart The Spending Wave Housing Starts Domestic Car Sales Real Output in the Medical and Health Care Industry.8 million million 6 trillion yen at constant prices....8.6 CY 98 8 9 9 98 8 9 9 98 8 9 9 Note: Average in the last five years. The value in for Real Output in the Medical and Health Care Industry is calculated using year-onyear changes from 6 to 8. Sources: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Automobile Dealers Association; Mini Vehicles Association; Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. Chart Fiscal Balance in Social Security Expenditure by Category FY Budget trillion yen (General Account) FY 97 7 8 8 9 9 9 Pensions.7 tril. yen (.8%) Medical care.8 tril. yen (.9%) Welfare and others 7. tril. yen (7.%) Others. tril. yen (8%) Social security 6. tril. yen (9%) National debt service.9 tril. yen (%) Local allocation tax grants 6.66 tril. yen (8%) Note: The scope of social security expenditure is based on the International Labor Organization standards for international comparison. Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Finance.
Chart Household Financial Assets % 9% 8% Others 7% Investment trusts 6% % % % % Equities Bonds Life insurance Deposits % % age -9-9 -9-9 6-69 7- Note: As of. Source: Central Council for Financial Services Information Chart Ratios of Population over 6 Years by Region Ratio of aged population, % Under...9..9 6. and over Note: As of. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Chart Working-Age Population Growth and Inflation: Cross-Country Comparison 99s s r GDP deflator 8 6 - year-on-year change, percent Correlation coefficient:.7 - Working-age population growth percent GD DP deflator 8 7 6 - - year-on-year change, percent Correlation coefficient:.67 - Working-age population growth percent Note: For the countries where the data are available among those that joined the OECD by the 99s. Source: OECD. Chart Money Growth and Inflation France (.6) (-.8) (.79) (.9) - - FY 97 8 9 97 8 9 United dkingdom (.9) (.7) (.6) (.) - - 97 8 9-97 8 9 Notes:. Figures in parentheses are correlation coefficients of 97-99 and 99-.. Money growth is selected as M for the US and, M for France, and M for the UK, respectively. Adjusted money growth is defined as money growth minus real GDP growth.. Because of the data discontinuity of Germany in 99 s, French is selected as the representative of the euro area. Sources : International Monetary Fund; Statistics by individual countries. Adjusted Money Growth (% points) Infration Rate (%)
Chart 6 Population Growth and Inflation in Population and the GDP Deflator Potential Growth Rate and Expected Inflation in the Medium to Long Term y/y chg., percent y/y chg., percent Working-age population Labor force GDP deflator (right scale) 9 6.. percent Potential growth rate per capita Expected inflation (right scale) percent......... - CY 96 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 - -. FY 99 96 6. Note: Lagged values are used for population growth because they precede inflation by a year. Expected inflation is the inflation outlook for CPI in the next 6 to years by the Consensus (average of the April and October surveys in each year). The potential growth rate is calculated by the Bank of. Sources: Bank of ; Consensus ; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 6 Chart 7 Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate in Advanced Economies ten-year average growth rate, percent Germany United Kingdom Italy France Spain - CY 97-8 7-8 7-8 77-86 79-88 8-9 8-9 8-9 87-96 89-98 9-9- 9-97- 6 99-8 - Sources: United Nations; Statistics by individual countries. 7
Chart 8 Current taccount, Trade Balance and dincome Balance - trillion yen Trade balance Income balance Current account Service balance Current transfers - FY 996 97 98 99 6 7 8 9 Sources: Ministry of Finance; Bank of. 8 Chart 9 Labor Participation of Female Workers and Fertility Rate. total fertility rate OECD Giants. Prefectures in total fertility rate..8. France United Kingdom Sweden.8 Canada.. Italy Germany... Korea Correlation coefficient: i 6.6 6 8 Labor participation for female workers, percent..8 Correlation coefficient:.8 6 6 7 7 8 8 Labor participation for female workers aged to, percent Note: The left panel includes the largest countries in terms of nominal GDP in 9. The right panel shows the values in. Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; OECD. 9
Chart Lb Labor Participation tii of fagedworkers Labor Participation of Aged Workers (over 6) in Labor Participation by Sex in percent percent Total 9 Males Females 8 7 6 Males Females CY 99 9 9 96 98 6 8 Note: The statistics do not include the data for Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate prefectures in. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. - - - - - - - - - 6-6- Chart Population Aging and Health Care Expenditure Germany France United Kingdom Population over 6 Years (Change from to, percent) 6 Expenditure for Health lthcare (Change from to 8, percent) 7 9 8 Source: United Nations; OECD.
Chart Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Income in GDP and GNI CY = 8 6 Gross domestic product Gross national lincome - trading gains 8 6 98 96 9 CY 996 98 6 8 8 6 8 6 trillion yen Income Balance Portfolio investment income Direct investment income Others Income balance FY 996 98 6 8 Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Finance; Bank of. Chart Foreign Outward ddirect tinvestment t 9 8 7 6 percent of nominal GDP Germany France United Kingdom CY 99 9 9 96 98 6 8 Source: OECD.
Chart Lb Labor Productivity tiit per Employed dperson by Country Italy France Germany Canada United Kingdom Note: Average in s. Source: World Bank. 6 7 8 9 thousand dusd