Investor presentation. Results 2009

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Transcription:

Investor presentation Results 2009 1

Highlights 2009 Strong underlying business SEK 4.8bn before provisions for credit losses and impairment charges Stable cost development Doubled collective provisions in the Baltic countries Full goodwill write-off in Ukraine Strong capital position after successful rights issue Participation in Swedish Funding Guarantee Programme 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Operating profit (SEKbn) 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.6 2.4 3.5 2.5 4.0 1.8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Profit before gains and credit losses Credit losses Goodwill impairment 09 2

Continued high operating income Strong net interest income Lower commission income Robust net financial income; M-t-M valuation losses of SEK 0.4bn Re-bounce of life insurance income FX translation effects SEK +0.7bn 09 vs. Operating income SEK bn Income Excluding one-offs and portfolio losses 12 8 4 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 09 3

Income well diversified Net interest income +40% Net fee and Net financial income commission income -15% (excl MTM portfolios) SEKm and change +112% 09 vs. Q4 09 Total NII growth 1,680 +12% 1 952-25% 1 393 Volume Growth 551-20% 1 345 1 111 930-35% Margin Development 20 648 569 517 462 142 Other 1,110 Advisory and brokerage Value based Base services Other FX Capital markets, equities, portfolios, etc. 4

Lower interest rates boost Net interest income Net interest income +40% Big impact from falling short-term interest rates Total NII growth 1,680 Drop in quarterly average +12% overnight interest rates SEK EUR USD -25% Volume Growth 551-2.8% -2.8% -3.2% Margin Development Other 20 1,110 09 vs 09 vs Q4 Portfolios etc +1,529 +759 Book equity -419-378 Net 1,110 392 5

Income well diversified Net interest income +40% Net fee and Net financial income commission income -15% (excl MTM portfolios) SEKm and change +112% 09 vs. Q4 09 Total NII growth 1,680 +12% 1 952-25% 1 393 Volume Growth 551-20% 1 345 1 111 930-35% Margin Development 20 648 569 517 462 142 Other 1,110 Advisory and brokerage Value based Base services Other FX Capital markets, equities, portfolios, etc. 6

Underlying costs levels under control Cost management program 20 2009 Achieved by 2009 Target by Q4 2009 * SEK 1,304m SEK 1,500 2,000m 500 net FTE reduction 2009 230 FTEs by Unchanged operating expenses on comparable basis SEKm Change 2009 vs. 20 20 6,027 Business related 240 68-275 Market related 388 195 6,067 6,650 594 2009 7,244 Cost efficiency Inflation, Redundancies Pensions FX translation Goodwill acquisitions impairment etc. 7

Merchant Banking strengthening its position GTS Corporate Banking TCM SEKm 6,000 3,000 Nordic target market 100 Core banking relationships % Large corporates Nordics Large corporates Sweden 0 09 09 Income Profit before credit losses NB. MTM portfolio losses SEK 0.4bn lower in 09 0 100 Perceived quality 0 100 20 2009 8

Strengthened franchise in Merchant Banking Market shares, Nordic stock markets Jan March, 2009, per cent SEB Enskilda 9,5% Supporting clients exports Trade finance portfolio volumes, indexed 200 180 160 +77% SHB 5.7% 140 120 Morgan Stanley 4.5% 100 80 Deutsche Bank 4.3% 60 40 Credit Suisse 4.2% 20 0 - -09 9

Merchant Banking Investment portfolio Volume reduction partly offset by FX 131 63 55 Volume -30 101 50 38 13 13 16 09 FX adjusted* FX +22 123 62 45 09 Reported Structured credits Financial institutions Covered bonds etc Mark-to-market loss SEK m Q4 09 P/L -872-187 -454 Equity -1,630-585 -441-2,502-772 -895 The unrealised valuation loss on 20 reclassified securities in the quarter was SEK 3,5m. Rating status of Structured credits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 88.5% - Q2- Q3- Q4- -09 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% 2.1% AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC/CC Rating actions on 31 out of 615 positions during this quarter No impaired assets No level 3 assets * Using FX rates as of 31 March 20 10

Germany potential and challenges Operating profit 2005-20 (SEKm) 1 600 1 200 800 400 Operating profit 2009 (SEKm) M B 165 09 291 +76% 0-400 2005 2006 20 20 Treasury Customer Business R E T A I L 09-212 38 Further steps to separate Retail from Merchant Banking and Asset Management have been formalised Attractive corporate growth segment for SEB Stable asset quality 11

Retail Banking income holding up SEK m 5,000 Germany Lithuania Latvia Estonia Card Sweden Lending volumes in local currency % change, 2009 vs 20 9 % Since yearend -5% Swedish Retail +9% 5 % 2,000 Swedish Retail +20% -1,000 09 09 Income Profit before credit losses -5 % -3 % -3 % Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Germany 12

SEB in Sweden Positive volume development Corporate lending * Sweden, SEK bn Mortgage lending Sweden, SEK bn Deposits from public Sweden, SEK bn 310 294 295 317 312 343 350 380 396 179 186 192 199 204 218 221 224 227 310 339 323 331 339 348 357 364 332 Q2 Q3 Q4 Net Sales 12 months Sweden: Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 84bn 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 23bn Wealth management SEK 40bn 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Life SEK 29bn Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 25bn 09 * Excluding reclassified bonds 13

Strong capital situation Capital ratios, Basel II without floors Per cent Core Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 ratio 15% Risk-weighted assets SEK bn Q4 20 818 10% 12.0 10.2 Long-term Basel II Tier 1 target Migration FX 20 12 5% 12 8 Required minimum Tier 1 in order to qualify for Swedish stabilisation measures is 4% 2009 830 Other Extended IRB rollouts 0% 14

Buffering up for Baltic challenges Provisions for Net Credit Losses % of 2009, SEB Group SEK 2,386m Q4 20* 2009* Estonia 0,76 1,73 Latvia 2,86 6,41 Lithuania 3,33 3,59 Baltics 2,59 3,70 Baltic countries Impaired loans, gross % of credit exposure excl. banks 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Estonia Latvia Lithuania Dec ' Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar '09 *Annualised figures 71% 29% Nordics, Germany, etc. Provisioning to build-up reserves SEK m 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0-200 Specific Collective Q4- - Q2- Q3- Q4- -09 15

Conservative provisioning policy Gross level of Impaired loans Individually assessed, per cent of lending Group Baltics 2.0 2.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.8 Q4 09 Reserve ratios* % Q4 09 Group 76.9% 68.5% 71.6% Baltics 139.9% 59.6% 69.3% excluding homogeneous groups 16

Sharp economic deterioration in Ukraine Dramatically changed economic environment since acquisition in 2004 and 20 No expansion plan Full goodwill write-off SEK 594m GDP forecast 12 Initial and revised GDP forecast 8 4 0-4 -8-12 2005 2006 20 20 2009 Lending SEK 2.7bn Customers 105,000 # of branches 100 Employees 1,331 09 op profit SEK -153m 17

Merchant Banking Private equity and Shipping/Offshore Private Equity (Acquisition Finance) Outstanding volumes, SEKbn Equity & mezzanine Senior debt 20.2 18.6 18,1 17,4 25.2 25.5 23,7 24,0 FY 2006 FY 20 FY 20 2009 * Effect of weaker Swedish krona FX effect 0.6bn* Shipping and Offshore Finance Credit exposure, SEKbn 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 FX effect 7.5bn* FY 2006 FY 20 FY 20 2009 * * Guaranteed by Export Credit Agencies Other Ferries RoRo Cruise Container Bulk LNG Gas Carrier Car Carriers Tanker Cruise** Yard (Cruise) Offshore 18

Property management SEK bn Lending SEKbn Commercial Multi-family 170 102 186 116 68 72 228 228 85 FY FY FY 2006 20 20 * By obligor s domicile 143 143 85 'Mar 2009 Other 4 Germany 29 Sweden 52 SWEDEN GERMANY BALTICS Commercial property sector SEK 44bn Offices Retail Hotels Logistics/warehouse and other Residential SEK 47bn Offices Retail Hotels Logistics/warehouse and other Residential SEK 28bn Offices Retail Warehouse & Industrial Residential Land plots Other 16% 3% 23% 17% 22% 29% 9% 7% 15% 2% 11% 49% 26% 28% 18% Other Nordic amounts to SEK 16bn, Other SEK 8bn 25% 19

Stable asset quality outside CEE Level of Impaired Loans* Level of net credit losses* 3,0% SEB Group Nordic Germany Baltic 4,00 Germany Nordics Baltics SEB Group 2,5% 2,0% 3,50 3,00 2,50 1,5% 2,00 1,0% 1,50 0,5% 1,00 0,50 0,0% Dec '06 Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar '09 0,00 2004 2005 2006 20 20 Mar '2009 * % of Credit Exposure excluding Banks *Annualised figures 20

Resilient income generation first line of defence 12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects SEKm 50 40 30 20 10 0 Operating income Profit before credit losses and goodwill Operating profit -05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 -06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 - Q2- Q3- Q4- - Q2- Q3- Q4- -09 Profit before credit losses Merchant SEK bn 3,3 Retail SEK bn Wealth SEK bn Life SEK bn 1,0 1,6 1,3 0,5 0,2 0,3 0,5 20 2009 20 2009 20 2009 20 2009 21

Support revenue generation focus on core clients key competitive advantages Prompt addressing of problem credits Maintain adequate buffer of capital and reserves 22

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