Global Real Estate Outlook Jeremy Kelly Global Research David Green-Morgan Global Capital Markets Research Ben Breslau Director of Research, Americas 7 th February 2013
Global Real Estate Outlook Road Map Global Markets: Current Position Leasing Markets: Review and Outlook Offices prices, demand, vacancy, construction Retail, Logistics Investment Market: Review and Outlook Transactional activity Where did the money come from and go to? Weight of capital and pricing Real estate within global capital markets Global Markets: 2013 Outlook 2
Global Markets Current Position Optimism returns, momentum gathers pace Exceptional end to 2012 Investment and leasing markets continue to diverge Investment Confidence Returns Better than expected 2012 - US$443 billion in transactions Major risks receding, debt improving selectively Yields in secondary attracting attention Leasing Less Resilient Leasing volumes down 20% on 2011 Rental growth at 1.5% y-o-y Vacancies edge downwards 13.2% 3
Leasing markets: review and outlook Jeremy Kelly Director - Global Research 4
Office leasing Global Office Property Clock Q4 2012 Shanghai, Beijing, Paris Amsterdam, Warsaw Stockholm, Sao Paulo Berlin Milan, Zurich Americas Asia Pacific EMEA Moscow San Francisco, Sydney Munich, Houston Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Hong Kong, Singapore Toronto Dallas London Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Abu Dhabi New York, Mumbai, Delhi, Johannesburg, Istanbul Boston Washington DC Los Angeles, Mexico City, Tokyo Madrid Seoul Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, January 2013 Brussels, Dubai, Frankfurt, Chicago This data is based on material/sources that we believe to be reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. Neither Jones Lang LaSalle nor any of its affiliates accept any liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein 5
Global Office Index Rental growth stalls Office leasing Rental Change (% QoQ) 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 Americas Europe -4.0 Asia Pacific Global -6.0-8.0-10.0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Asia Pacific stock weighted average of 27 markets; Americas stock weighted average of 39 markets: Europe stock weighted average of 24 markets Global Index based on GDP weighted average of the three regional indices Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 6
Office leasing volumes subdued Office leasing US Europe Asia Pacific Global 2012-20% -10% -30% -20% 2013 +0-5% Flat -5-10% +0-5% but momentum building in H2 2013 7
Office vacancy rates edge downwards Office leasing % 25 Americas 16.0% Europe 9.6% Asia Pacific 11.0% 20 15 10 5 Q4 2012 movement Increased Decreased 0 Stable Toronto Mexico City New York San Francisco Boston Sao Paulo Washington DC Los Angeles Chicago London Paris Stockholm Brussels Frankfurt Madrid Moscow Hong Kong Tokyo CBD Beijing Singapore Sydney Shanghai Mumbai Regional vacancy rates based on 49 markets in the Americas, 24 markets in Europe and 24 markets in Asia Pacific. Covers all office sub-markets in each city. All grades except Asia and Latin America (Grade A only). Tokyo relates to CBD only. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 8
Global Office Development deliveries below trend Office leasing millions sq m 20 US Europe Asia Pacific 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Average 24 markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the US. Asia relates to Grade A only. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 9
Office Supply Pipeline Markets diverge Office leasing Shanghai Sao Paulo Dubai Mexico City Mumbai Moscow Tokyo CBD Beijing London Singapore Paris Frankfurt Hong Kong Brussels Stockholm Washington DC Boston San Francisco New York Toronto Sydney Madrid Los Angeles Chicago Completions as % of existing stock 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2013 2014 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013. Covers all office sub-markets in each city. Tokyo - CBD-3 kus 10
Prime Offices Projected Changes in Values, 2013 Office leasing + 10-20% + 5-10% + 0-5% - 0-5% - 5-10% Rental Values San Francisco Hong Kong, Tokyo, London* Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York* Toronto, Washington DC, Paris* Frankfurt, Stockholm, Brussels, Moscow, Dubai Sao Paulo, Mexico City Madrid Capital Values San Francisco Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney Moscow, London* Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York* Toronto, Washington DC Frankfurt, Brussels, Dubai Paris*, Stockholm Sao Paulo, Mexico City Madrid Provisional. *New York Midtown, London West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currency. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 11
Global Retail Market Dynamics Retail Asia Pacific Q4 2012 Rent Clock Demand is healthy despite more subdued retail sales Upswing in rents in 2013, albeit moderately Retailers becoming more selective in China Europe Turkey and Russia are the stand out markets Cross-border retailers targeting prime pitches Retailers under pressure to restructure Robust rental growth in 2013 in key markets (e.g. London, Moscow, German cities) United States Overall market still to find cyclical trough Malls show tightest conditions Key gateway markets starting to turn corner e.g. New York, San Francisco, Houston, Miami Paris Moscow, Hong Kong London Berlin Shanghai Beijing Dubai Mumbai Delhi Milan, New York City, San Francisco, Tokyo Houston, Singapore Rental Value growth slowing Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Madrid Chicago Washington DC Boston, Sydney Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 12
Global Industrial Market Dynamics Industrial United States Markets gaining strength Memphis, Atlanta and Dallas were the star performers in Q4, Return of new construction Focus on big-box Singapore Hong Kong Frankfurt Shanghai Q4 2012 Rent Clock Europe Demand holding up, above 10y average Take-up underpinned by supply chain realignment Low supply sustaining prime rents in 2013 Asia Pacific Retail sales underpin warehousing demand Export sector shows renewed buoyancy Most major markets expect rental growth in 2013 Beijing Sydney Philadelphia London, Warsaw Inland Empire, Chicago Boston, Dallas Houston, Tokyo Atlanta Paris, Madrid Los Angeles Northern New Jersey/New York Rental Value growth slowing Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Amsterdam Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013
Investment markets: review and outlook David Green-Morgan Global Capital Markets Research Director 14
Year on year growth continues in 2012 Direct Commercial Real Estate Volumes by Region, 2003-2012 Investment US$ bn 800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Global Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 15
Strong final quarter typifies post GFC world Direct Commercial Real Estate Volumes by Region, Q4 2008-Q4 2012 Investment US$ bn 160 92% 100% 140 80% 120 54% 47% 60% 100 80 60 40 8% -19% -1% 0% 5% 7% -12% 10% -2% 11% -27% 22% -6% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 20 0-60% Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412-60% -80% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Americas AM EMEA EMEA Asia Pacific AP Total investment (% change q-o-q, RHS) 16
Flows increased in 2012 to $136 billion Inter-Regional Flows, 2012 Investment Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 17
Opportunities in Europe move transactions higher Net Inter-Regional Flows, 2011,2012 Investment Americas More product on the market in Europe is the major factor driving inter-regional flows EMEA Asia Pacific Source: Jones Lang LaSalle -12-7 -2 3 8 13 18 US$ bn 2012 2011 18
More balanced approach in 2012 Net Investment by Type, 2011,2012 Investment US$ bn 35 25 15 Western governments starting to dispose of property 5-5 -15-25 2011 2012-35 -45-55 REIT Unlisted Institution Private Government Hotel Owner / Operator Other Corporate Developers Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 19
Lack of product holds retail back in 2012 Net Investment by Sector, 2011,2012 Investment 2011 2012 8% 3% 1% 7% 3% 3% 12% 47% 13% 50% 29% 24% Office Retail Industrial Hotel Mixed Other Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 20
Secondary cities starting to see more deals Net Investment by Type, 2011,2012 Investment Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 21
Real estate attracts the cash Fund Raising by Strategy 2012 Investment Real Assets 6% Growth 6% Fund of Funds 4% Other 0% Secondary 8% Venture 8% Buyout 43% Source: Bloomberg Debt 12% Real Estate 13% 22
Investment More movement in secondary, Prime stagnant Prime Offices Yield Shift Americas Europe Asia Pacific Brussels Frankfurt London Madrid Moscow Paris Stockholm Boston Chicago Los Angeles New York San Francisco Toronto Washington DC Sao Paulo Mexico City Beijing Hong Kong Mumbai Shanghai Singapore Sydney Tokyo Q3 2012 - Q4 2012 Q4 2011 - Q3 2012 Basis point change -150-100 -50 0 50 100 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2013 23
UK led markets lower in 2006, what about 2013? Net Investment by Type, 2011,2012 Investment 25% Global Returns All Property UK Returns All Property 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: IPD 24
Prime Offices - Capital Value Clock The Jones Lang LaSalle Property Clocks SM Shanghai, Washington DC, London Milan, New York Paris Beijing, Stockholm, Boston Berlin, Moscow Chicago, San Francisco, Sao Paulo Los Angeles Houston, Frankfurt Singapore, Amsterdam Toronto Dallas Sydney Mumbai Capital value growth slowing Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Capital value growth accelerating Capital values falling Capital values bottoming out Tokyo, Brussels Hong Kong Mexico City Madrid, Seoul Sao Paulo Toronto Stockholm Berlin San Francisco Houston London Mexico City Sydney Frankfurt Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris Moscow Dallas Capital value growth slowing Mumbai Capital value growth accelerating Tokyo Seoul, Brussels New York, Boston, Chicago Los Angeles, Shanghai, Beijing Amsterdam Capital values falling Capital values bottoming out Washington DC Madrid Milan Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Based on notional capital values for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. US positions relate to the overall market 25
$500 billion in sight for 2013 Direct Commercial Real Estate Volumes by Region, 2003-2013 Investment US$ bn 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Global 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (forecast) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 26
Global Markets 2013 Outlook Investment Stable, with Upside Potential 2013 average of US$125 billion transactions/quarter Prime yields look close to bottom, secondary starting to attract more investor interest US looks set for major upside in 2013 if political challenges don t become a drag; AP resumes growth on improved global trade; EMEA flat Major markets & strong secondary to attract majority of deals in 2013 Leasing Slow Start to Year, Momentum Builds H2 Gross leasing volumes +0-5% Rent growth +2-3% New office deliveries +28%, but still 30% below trend Vacancy edging down below 13% Star performers - San Francisco, Jakarta 27
Global Real Estate Outlook Questions and Answers Jeremy Kelly David Green-Morgan Benjamin Breslau Director - Global Research Jeremy.Kelly@eu.jll.com Global Capital Markets Research Director David.Green-Morgan@ap.jll.com Head of Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com 28
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Global Real Estate Outlook Jeremy Kelly David Green-Morgan Benjamin Breslau Director - Global Research Jeremy.Kelly@eu.jll.com Global Capital Markets Research Director David.Green-Morgan@ap.jll.com Head of Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Thank you 30