Country Briefing: Eurozone September, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-783 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8--1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Real GDP 1- Industrial Production 3- Purchasing Managers Indexes Merchandise Trade 7 Retail Sales 8 Unemployment 9 Consumer & Business Confidence 1 Consumer Prices 11-1 ECB Central Bank Rate 13 Government Bond Yields 1 Stock Markets 1 September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Real GDP 1 Figure 1. REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar) Total (.) Q 1 - - -1-1 -1 1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Domestic Demand (.) -1 1 Q1 - - -1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18-1 Household Spending (1.) Q1 - - - 1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-.1) - 1-1 Q1-1 - -3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. - -3 Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
7 3 Figure. Real GDP REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar) Government Spending (1.3) 7 3 1-1 - 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Exports of Goods & Services (.9) Q1 1-1 - Q1 - - - 3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Imports of Goods & Services (.) - 3 1 1 Q1-1 -1 - - -3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. -3 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Industrial Production 1 Figure 3. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1, sa) 1 11 11 11 Total Excluding Construction Manufacturing 11 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. 8 1 1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) 1 1 - -1 Total Excluding Construction Manufacturing - -1-1 -1 - - - 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. - Page 3 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1, sa) Industrial Production 1 11 11 1 Capital Goods Consumer Goods 1 9 9 8 1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 8 1 13 13 1 11 Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable Goods 1 11 1 1 9 1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 9 1 11 11 1 Intermediate Goods Energy 11 11 1 1 1 9 9 9 8 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. 9 8 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Industrial Production 1-1 Capital Goods Consumer Goods -1 - - -3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18-3 1 1-1 - Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable Goods -1 - -3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18-3 1 1-1 - Intermediate Goods Energy -1 - -3 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. -3 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Figure 7. Purchasing Managers Indexes EUROZONE: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* Aug 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: Haver Analytics. Figure 8. EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING & NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* 8 Aug 8 M-PMI NM-PMI 8 8 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: Haver Analytics. Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Merchandise Trade 3 Figure 9. EUROZONE: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion euros, nsa) Balance 3 1 1-1 -1-1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 - (billion euros, sa) 17 Exports 17 1 Imports 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 (yearly percent change) Exports Imports - - - 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 7 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
11 Figure 1. Retail Sales EUROZONE: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (1=1, sa) 11 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. 9 7. Figure 11. EUROZONE: RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (yearly percent change) 7....... -. -. -. 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. -. Page 8 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
1. 1. Figure 1. EUROZONE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) Unemployment 1. 1. 11. 11. 11. 11. 1. 1. 1. 1. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. 7. 7. 3.9 3.7 Figure 13. EUROZONE: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (millions, sa) 3.9 3.7 3. 3. 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1.9.9.7.7. 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.. Page 9 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
13 1 Figure 1. Consumer & Business Confidence EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* (long-term average=1, sa) 13 1 11 Aug 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight %), service (3%), consumer (%), construction (%), and retail trade (%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission. 3 Figure 1. EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS (percent balance,sa) Industrial (.1) Services (1.9) Consumer (-1.) Retail Trade (1.) Construction (-3.3) 3 1 Aug 1-1 -1 - - -3-3 - 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: European Commission. - Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Figure 1. EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Consumer Prices 3 Total 3 1 1-1 3. 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18-1 3... Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco.. 1. 1. 1. 1.. 8 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18. 8 Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco - 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 11 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
1 1 Figure 17. EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Energy Consumer Prices 1 1 - -1-1 8 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Housing - -1-1 8-1 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18-1 8 Health 8-1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Figure 18. ECB REFINANCING RATE (daily, percent) ECB Central Bank Rate 3 3 1 1 9/ -1 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Source: European Central Bank. -1 Page 13 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
18 1 1 Figure 19. Government Bond Yields EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, monthly) NIRP E D QE QEE 18 1 1 1 1 1 8 Yields France Germany Italy Spain 1 8 - Aug 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//1) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/1/1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics. - 9. 8. 8. 7. 7....... 3. 3... 1. 1... -. Figure. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) France (.8) Germany (.37) Italy (.) Spain (1.) D NIRP QE QEE 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//1) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/1/1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics. Brexit 9/ 9. 8. 8. 7. 7....... 3. 3... 1. 1... -. Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
Stock Markets Figure 1. EUROPE (Dow Jones Stoxx ) (euro-based) IRELAND (ISEQ Overall) 13 11 3 9/ 9/ 9 7 3 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 1 7 FRANCE (CAC ) ITALY (FTSE MIB) 9/ 3 3 3 9/ 1 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 1 1 1 1 8 GERMANY (DAX) 9/ NETHERLANDS (Amsterdam) 9/ 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 1 7 GREECE (Athens, SE) SPAIN (Madrid General Index) 3 9/ 1 1 1 9/ 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 18 19 -day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc. Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
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