Reaffirming a Few Credit Assumptions Special Report Asset-Backed Securities Interest Rate-Delinquencies Strongly Correlated: India Ratings ABS portfolio of CV loans indicates that the delinquency rate for commercial vehicle (CV) loans increases with an increase in interest rates. It has been observed that 9+ days past due (dpd) delinquency rates shoot up to.6% and.7% for new and used CV pools, respectively, with an increase in loan internal rate of return (IRR) beyond 5%. For loans with IRR below 5%, 9+dpd delinquency stands at.8% and.7% for new and used CV loans, respectively. LTV Key to Loss Reduction: At high interest rates, Indian CV originators limit loan to value (LTV) ratios. In case of new CV loans, at IRRs above 5%, LTVs of 8%-9% are offered to a very small percentage of borrowers. Similarly for used CV loans at high interest rates, LTVs drop to 5%-6% from 6%-7% indicating the use of LTV as a key loss reduction credit parameter. Thus, deploying higher interest rates is not a mitigating factor sufficient to address the risk associated with loss severity in CV loans. Mixed Results at High LTVs: There is a clear contrast in the default behaviour of new and used CV loans at very high LTVs. New CV loans with the highest LTV show lesser-thanportfolio average delinquencies, arising from greater due diligence at the time of underwriting. However, the same strategy does not seem to be effective for used CV loans, which show significantly higher-than-portfolio average delinquencies at the highest LTVs. Low Ticket Loans Most Risky: New and used CV loan pools with vehicle value below INR.5m show a high average 9+dpd delinquency rate of around.%. In contrast, new and used CV pools with vehicle value above INR.75m show average 9+dpd delinquency rates of.8% and.6%, respectively. The rise in delinquencies at lower vehicle values indicates the weaker credit profile of borrowers who seek to finance commercial vehicles of smaller values. LCV Loans Perform Worse: India Ratings has observed that HCV loans show low delinquency rates at around half of overall weighted average (WA) 9+ dpd delinquency rates. New farm equipment and passenger vehicle loans show high 9+dpd delinquencies at.6x and.5x of the overall WA 9+dpd delinquency rates, respectively. Similar asset classes for used CVs show high 9+dpd delinquencies at.x and.98x of the overall WA 9+dpd delinquency rates, respectively. Analysts Arvind Rana +9 79 arvind.rana@indiaratings.co.in Sandeep Singh +9 75 sandeep.singh@indiaratings.co.in Delinquencies Lowest in Southern States: While originating standards remain broadly similar across various states, some states such as (AP), Tamil Nadu (TN) and (WB) show lower defaults than the portfolio average. States such as, (MP), (UP) exhibit higher defaults than the portfolio average. The variance can be attributed to the stronger presence of originators in southern states who form a significant portion of India Ratings rated pools, as well as to the strong repayment trackrecord of underlying borrowers. AP, TN and WB have shown 9+dpd delinquency rates about three-fourth of the overall WA 9+dpd delinquency rates for India Ratings CV loan portfolio for new and used CV loans. On the other hand,, MP, UP and have shown.5x to.8x of the overall WA 9+dpd rates. www.indiaratings.co.in December
Scope India Ratings has undertaken a loan level analysis of its rated CV loan ABS portfolio to understand key emerging trends in CV loan performance. The agency has analysed the performance across geographies, asset classes, interest rates and loan sizes for over, loans amounting to INR6.5bn, originated from 8 to, which are currently part of its CV ABS portfolio. It has also tried to evaluate, if originating standards significantly vary across states leading to performance variation. Limitation The analysis was performed over snapshot data (loan-level payout and delinquency data shared at the time of annual review of transactions) spread over a year for various India Ratings rated CV loan ABS transactions. Therefore, some of the performance trends may be at slight variance with long-term trends observed from other sources of information shared by originators such as the static pools and dynamic portfolio cuts. Key Performance Trends Loan Origination States CV Loans Performance Vary With States India Ratings has observed that loans originated in states like AP, TN and WB have performed significantly better-than-average performance. However, loans originated in, MP, UP and have shown higher-than-average default rates. A majority of originators for the agency rated CV loans ABS portfolio have a strong presence in southern states, which is probably one of the key reasons for observed variations in delinquency behaviour. The relative difference in delinquencies rates observed for CV loans originated in various states is not on account of seasoning which as indicated by the red line in the charts is broadly similar across the parameter under observation. Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by States: New States (LHS) 5 (Year) New Delhi Tamil Nadu Haryana Chhattisgarh Punjab Figure WA 9+dpd rate by States: Used..5..5..5. States (LHS) (Year) Gujarat Kerala December
The overall WA 9+dpd rates for India Ratings new and used CV rated portfolio were.% and.5% as a percentage of original principal outstanding (POS), respectively. Originating Practices Similar Across States To identify the reason behind the significant variation in CV loans performance originated across different states, India Ratings analysed the key credit underwriting parameters to see if underwriting practices vary across the states. The agency observed that originating and servicing standards remained similar across states and hence could not be the reason for the variation in delinquency trends. India Ratings has observed that barring some minor variations in WA original loan sizes for new CV loans across states, their sizes remain broadly in the same range for used CV loans. Figure WA Original Loan Size: New Original loan size (INR ) 5 New Delhi Haryana Chhattisgarh Punjab Figure WA Original Loan Size: Used Original loan size (INR ) 6 5 Gujarat Kerala The agency also observed that LTVs are broadly similar across various states, and thus cannot be ascribed as the key reason for the variation in delinquency behaviour across states. The WA original LTV for the agency s new CV and used CV ABS portfolios were 85% and 69%, respectively. December
Figure 5 WA LTV: New 8 6 LTV New Delhi Haryana Chhattisgarh Punjab Figure 6 WA LTV: Used 8 LTV 6 Gujarat Kerala While the loan IRR does have a significant correlation with delinquencies (as discussed later in the report), India Ratings does not see much variation in IRR for CV loan portfolios across states. Hence, it seems unlikely that IRR is the causal factor for higher delinquencies in some states. Figure 7 WA IRR: New IRR 5 5 5 New Delhi Haryana Chhattisgarh Punjab December
Figure 8 WA IRR: Used 5 5 5 5 IRR Gujarat Kerala Asset Types: Lower Delinquencies in HCVs, Higher Delinquencies in Farm Equipment & Passenger Vehicles at Similar Level of Seasoning New CV loans: HCV and LCV loans have seen lower delinquencies compared with those seen in farm equipment and passenger vehicles loans. Overall WA 9+dpd delinquency is.% of the original pool principal at closing. 9+dpd delinquencies observed for new HCV and LCV loans were.% and.5%, as against.% and.% for farm equipment and passenger vehicle loans. As indicated in the chart below, the variation is not on account of seasoning as all asset classes have broadly similar levels of seasoning in the agency s rated portfolio. Figure 9 Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by Asset Types: New Asset type (LHS) HCV LCV Farm Passenger Equipment Asset Types: New Others % HCV % LCV 5% Farm Equipment % Passenger % Used CV Loans: Among used CV loans, HCV loans have seen lower WA 9+dpd delinquencies at.7% of the original pool principal at closing, which is almost half of the WA 9+dpd rate of.5% for overall used CV loans. Similarly, 9+dpd delinquencies for LCV farm equipment and passenger vehicle loans were observed to be at levels higher than the portfolio average as indicated in the chart below. Farm equipment, small CVs and passenger vehicles derive their freight demand locally and do not face high entry and knowledge barriers in the transport and freight industry as against the credit underwriting requirement for HCV loan borrowers. December 5
Figure Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by Asset Types: Used Asset type (LHS).5..5..5..5. HCV LCV Farm Equipment SCV Passenger Asset Types: Used Others 8% HCV % SCV % LCV Passenger % % Farm Equipment % Delinquency Across LTV Buckets New CV Loans: India Ratings has observed that new CV loans with the original LTV of below 5% show 9+dpd rate of.% of the original principal outstanding, lower than the overall average of.%. Other LTV buckets have shown defaults similar to the overall average for the agency s rated portfolio of new CV loans. Low default rates at low LTV levels are in line with the agency s view that borrowers with high equity have lesser propensity to default in difficult times. Loans with LTVs of above 8% pass through greater credit scrutiny, resulting in lower default rates at high LTV levels. A majority of new CV loan portfolio has LTV in the range 7%-%. Figure Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by LTV Buckets: New LTV (LHS)..5..5..5. <5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-..5..5..5..5. LTV: New 8-5% <5 % 5-6 6% 6-7 % 7-8 8% Used CV Loans: Used CV loans in original LTV buckets of 5%-6% and 6%-7% show a 9+dpd rate of.6% and.%, respectively, against the overall WA 9+dpd rate of.5%. These buckets constitute over 85% of the agency s current portfolio. At high LTVs of over 7%, 9+dpd delinquencies rise significantly. However, this, in the agency s opinion, should not have any negative rating impact on the rated portfolio given the much lower exposure to such loans. It is also evident that any closer credit scrutiny that potentially leads to lesser delinquencies at higher LTVs in new CV loans is not very effective for used CV loan borrowers at higher LTVs. December 6
Figure 5 Figure 6 WA 9+dpd Rate by LTV Buckets: Used LTV (LHS)..5..5..5. <5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-..5..5..5..5. LTV: Used 6-7 68% 8-7-8 % 6% <5 % 5-6 9% IRR Buckets: High IRR, Higher defaults New CV Loans: Loans with IRR above 5% show high 9+dpd delinquency rates of.6% as against the overall WA 9+dpd rate of.%. In contrast, for loans with IRR below 5%, 9+dpd delinquency rates are much lower. Figure 7 Figure 8 WA 9+dpd Rate by IRR Buckets: New IRR (LHS) IRR: New >5% % <5% 7% <5% 5%-% %-5% >5% %-5% % 5%-% 9% India Ratings analysis suggests that originators tend to limit credit losses at high IRR by deploying controls around LTV such that at high IRRs, less high LTV loans are disbursed. As evident from the chart below, the proportion of 9%-% LTV loans drops as interest rates increase to 5%-%. Figure 9 LTV Distribution for IRR Buckets: New CV % to 5% 5% to 6% 6% to 7% 7% to 8% 8% to 9% 9% to % % 8% 6% % % % % to 5% 5% to % % to 5% 5% to % (IRR) Used CV Loans: India Ratings analysis also indicates that a strong correlation exists between delinquency rates and IRRs for used CV loans as well. WA 9+dpd rates as % of original POS for loans with IRR below 5%, 5%-% and above % were.7%,.9% and.7%, December 7
respectively. The overall WA 9+dpd rate for the agency s rated used CV portfolio was.5% as a percentage of original POS. Figure Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by IRR Buckets: Used > IRR (LHS) % <5 %..5..5..5. <5 5- > IRR: Used 5-58% For new CV loans at higher IRR buckets, LTV tends to be on the lower end of the spectrum, with majority loans belonging to the 5%-6% LTV band. Limiting the LTVs acts as a mitigating factor in reducing credit losses for high IRR loans. Figure LTV Distribution for IRR Buckets: Used CV % to 5% 5% to 6% 6% to 7% 7% to 8% 8% to % % 8% 6% % % % 5% to % % to 5% 5% to % % to 5% (IRR) Low Ticket Loans Most Risky Delinquencies rise sharply with a fall in vehicle values/loan sizes. For new CV loans with vehicle values below INR.5m and INR.5m-INR.5m, 9+dpd rates as a percentage of original POS were high at.% and.8%, respectively, against the overall WA 9+dpd rate of.%. The 9+dpd rate for loans with vehicle values above INR.75m was low at.8%. Used CV loans show an even greater inverse relationship between vehicle values and delinquency levels. The 9+dpd rates for used CV for loans with vehicle values below INR.5m and INR.5m-INR.5m were.% and.%, respectively, against overall WA 9+dpd rate of.5%. However, the 9+dpd rates for loans with vehicle values above INR.75m were low at.6% of original POS. December 8
Figure Figure WA 9+dpd Rate by Vehicle Values: New Vehicle value (LHS) WA Seasoning (RHS) <.5m.5m-.5m.5m-.75m >.75m Vehicle Values: New >.75m % <.5m 7%.5m-.5m 9%.5m-.75m % Figure 5 Figure 6 WA 9+dpd Rate by Vehicle Values: Used Vehicle value (LHS) WA Seasoning (RHS) <.5m.5m-.5m.5m-.75m >.75m Vehicle Values: Used >.75m 5%.5m-.75m % <.5m 5%.5m-.5m 9% In the agency s view, a sharp rise in delinquency rates with a fall in vehicle values indicates the following: Low ticket loans, especially for used CV, are provided to borrowers with weaker credit profiles and thus have much high default probability; and, High ticket loans (above INR.75m) are provided to borrowers with strong credit profiles and hence show better-than-average performance. The high credit risks associated with lending to small CV operators is evident from the above charts such that delinquency rates shoot up by %-% from the portfolio average delinquencies. December 9
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