U. S. TREASURY INTEREST RATE YIELD CURVE (January 5, 2018) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 3 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr+ Over the past 50 years, interest rates have moved more than 50 basis points (+/- 0.5) at some point across the yield curve during every subsequent six-month period (except for twenty periods in the past 20 years that averaged less than 4 weeks and ranged from 1 to 13 weeks, the vast majority of which occurred since 2011). Based upon the history of interest rates, at least one interest rate point along the yield curve can be expected to exceed the upper boundary (red) or lower boundary (green) within the next 6 months (before the middle of the year). H.15 release.
9. 8.5% 8. INTEREST RATE CHANGES WITHIN THE SUBSEQUENT 6 MONTHS (up or down presented 7.5% 7. 6.5% 6. 5.5% 5. 4.5% The 6/50 Rule provides that interest rates somewhere along the yield curve tend to move more than 50 basis points during the subsequent sixmonth period. Since 1968, the 6/50 Rule has proven to be true for more than 97% of the weeks. Even in recent years, under Federal Reserve policy and operations that are distorting normal market movements by pegging short-term interest rates near zero and suppressing longer-term interest rates 4. 3.5% 3. 2.5% 2. 1.5% 1. 0.5% 0. Total 0. - 0.5% 0.5% - 1. 1. - 1.5% 1.5% - 2. 2. + Periods 2,583 74 730 735 490 554 Percent 100. 2.9% 28.3% 28.5% 19. 21.4% H.15 release; the change represents either the maximum increase or decrease from the base period across the subsequent six months; five basis points are added to the range to reflect variations during the week. (Ver 1.1)
9. 8.5% 8. 7.5% 7. 6.5% 6. 5.5% 5. 4.5% 4. 3.5% 3. 2.5% 2. 1.5% 1. 0.5% 0. -0.5% -1. -1.5% -2. -2.5% -3. -3.5% -4. -4.5% -5. -5.5% -6. -6.5% -7. -7.5% -8. -8.5% -9. -9.5% INTEREST RATE CHANGES WITHIN THE SUBSEQUENT 6 MONTHS (up or down presented Total 0. - 0.5% 0.5% - 1. 1. - 1.5% 1.5% - 2. 2. + Periods 2,583 74 730 735 490 554 Percent 100. 2.9% 28.3% 28.5% 19. 21.4% H.15 release; the change represents the maximum increase or decrease from the base period across the subsequent six months; five basis points are added to the range to reflect variations during the week. (Ver 1.1)
20 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Jan-68 Jan-71 Jan-74 Jan-77 Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 20 15 5-5 - -15 Total - 1 1-2 2-3 3-5 5 + Periods 2,583 71 609 694 519 690 Percent 100. 2.7% 23.6% 26.9% 20.1% 26.7% H.15 release; the change represents the maximum increase or decrease from the base period across the subsequent six months as a percent of the base interest rate; five basis points are added to the range to reflect variations during the week. (Ver 1.1)
20 18 (rolling weekly periods over the past 10 years: 2008-01/05/18) 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 20 15 (rolling weekly periods over the past 10 years: 2008-01/05/18) 5-5 - -15 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 H.15 release; the change represents the maximum increase or decrease from the base period across the subsequent six months as a percent of the base interest rate; five are basis points added to the range to reflect variations during the week.