GCC Economic. Outlook. Credit growth strong in most

GCC Economic Outlook July January Solid growth thoughdespite global risks regionalexpected, growth outlook globalloom weakness Large surpluses despiteasgovernment Budgetfiscal surpluses to decline oil revenuesspending plateau surge Credit growth strong in most fastercountries growing economies

GCC Economic Outlook - January GCC Economic Outlook January Contents GCC outlook Bahrain Macro forecasts: Higher public spending drives growth Money & finance: Credit growth decelerates Kuwait Macro forecasts: Growth revised up on project spending Money & finance: Credit growth sees modest gains Oman Macro forecasts: Economic growth boosts employment Money & finance: Bank lending growth eases slightly Qatar Macro forecasts: Non-oil sector poised to drive growth Money & finance: QCB facilitating liquidity management Saudi Arabia Macro forecasts: Growth sustained by public spending Money & finance: Strong growth in private sector lending UAE Macro forecasts: Debt overhang still a drag on growth Money & finance: Asset quality concerns weigh on banks Regional data and forecasts Economic Research Abdullah Al-Ahmed Street, P.O. Box 9, Safat Kuwait City, Kuwait Tel: +9 9 Fax: +9 97 www.nbk.com

GCC Economic Outlook - January GCC outlook Solid regional growth outlook despite fragile global economy; fiscal surpluses to decline as oil revenues dip GCC forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP 7.. market, education, and competition policy are needed to enable the private sector to grow more independently of state support. Such reforms have taken a back seat of late as governments have prioritized measures to boost incomes and jobs. GCC economic growth is set to slow to.% in from.% in as the three-year surge in regional oil production comes to an end. (Chart.) However, on the ground, business conditions are expected to remain solid as governments maintain elevated levels of investment and social spending, which will ultimately support confidence and private sector activity. Geographically, Qatar and Oman are likely to be the region s best performers. (Chart.) But project market activity will also help build or sustain growth momentum in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Our base case forecast assumes that oil prices average $ per barrel (pb) over the forecast horizon a level that allows most GCC governments to finance higher spending without draining their financial reserves. GCC oil production is projected to fall by -% per year over the next two years as Gulf OPEC producers move to reverse some of the big output increases seen since. (Chart.) Despite healthy rates of economic growth, GCC inflation remains low. Weighted consumer price inflation had fallen from.7% mid-year to.% by October and is expected to have averaged.% in. (Chart.) The decline has been driven by a deceleration if food price inflation in some countries, soft figures for housing rents and the lagged impact of earlier US dollar strength on import prices. A slight pick-up in inflation to % is seen in, as some of these factors go in to reverse while domestic economic growth remains strong. However, at these levels, inflation is unlikely to register as a major policy concern. Fiscal and monetary policies will remain expansionary. Aggregate GCC government spending is seen rising by -% per year over the next two years and by, spending could be nearly % higher than in. Lower oil production and prices will hit oil revenues, however, and the region s budget surplus will more than halve from % of GDP in to % by. (Chart.) But there are risks to this forecast. A major global economic downturn could see global oil market fundamentals loosen by more than expected in, pushing oil prices below $ pb for a prolonged period. This would put government fiscal balances under pressure and cause cuts in spending or delays in project execution, weakening economic growth. Over the medium-term, major economic reforms in areas such as the labor Finally, interest rates are expected to stay at recent record lows, in order to help manage exchange rate pegs against the US dollar. Bank lending is also likely to remain solid overall and particularly in those countries where growth is strongest. Banking sector profitability should see an improvement after a provisioning-affected so long as the global economy maintains its footing.

GCC Economic Outlook - January GCC outlook charts Chart. GCC real GDP Chart. Real GDP by country (% y/y) (% y/y) Oil Non-oil Total..9........7.... - - - - F Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar KSA UAE GCC 7. 7. Chart. GCC crude oil output (mn barrels per day) 7. 7. Chart. GCC consumer price inflation (% y/y, year average)........... Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-. F Chart. Budget balance (% GDP) Chart. Current account balance (% GDP) - - F F Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts Includes condensate output in Oman and estimates for Bahrain Includes estimates of off-balance sheet revenues in the UAE and Oman

GCC Economic Outlook - January Bahrain: macro forecasts Higher government spending to drive economic growth; budget deficit seen widening further Bahrain forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP -. -. Economic growth in Bahrain rebounded sharply to some.% y/y in the first quarters of, led by an impressive recovery in the non-oil sectors, and is likely to average near % for the year as a whole. These upbeat figures partly reflect the poor performance of the economy in the previous year, reflecting domestic unrest. Over the mediumterm, the Bahraini government plans to embark on a series of infrastructure projects partly funded by a pledged GCC support fund alongside new investments in the hydrocarbon sector. In this context, we expect real GDP growth to remain solid at around.% in and. (Chart 7.) The non-oil sectors, which contribute % of Bahrain s total GDP, are expected to grow at a robust % over the next two years. The allimportant financial sector, which has been slow to recover, will continue to keep non-oil GDP growth below the super-strong levels seen prior to the financial crisis. Other sectors - including manufacturing, construction and real estate - are expected to perform solidly, especially in light of the government s infrastructure development plan. Despite a ramping-up of production at Bahrain s oil field, real oil GDP fell in H as a result of a decline in Abu Safa field output a field shared with Saudi Arabia. (Chart.) Since the share of oil from Abu Safa contributes over three-quarters of total Bahraini oil production, this is likely to have had a significant impact on the oil sector in. Nevertheless, if Abu Safa output returns to its previous level of, barrels per day and given the ongoing boost in production at Bahrain s field, oil GDP growth is likely to pick-up to -% in and. After starting off the year at near zero rates, consumer price inflation averaged almost % in the first months of. (Chart 9.) This rise was mainly driven by the housing component, as inflation in rents moved into positive territory in September for the first time since early. However, inflation softened in early Q in line with an easing in food price inflation. In and, we expect improving domestic demand to underpin inflation at relatively moderate rates of around %. (Chart.) Project spending is expected to remain high, despite lower allocations in the - draft budget; infrastructure projects funded by the GCC grant may be off-budget, thereby understating government spending in this category. Meanwhile, recent increases in salaries and social transfers have locked-in higher levels of current spending, and coupled with slightly weaker oil prices and revenues, Bahrain is expected to continue running budget deficits over the next couple of years. We project the budget deficit to widen to.% of GDP over the next two years, from an expected.% in. (Chart.) The current account surplus is expected to remain large over the forecast period at around % of GDP, supported by improving services revenues and still high oil receipts. (Chart.)

GCC Economic Outlook - January Bahrain: macro forecast charts Chart 7. Real GDP (% y/y) Chart. Crude oil output Oil (Bahrain, bpd, LHS) Oil (Abu Safa, bpd, LHS) Gas (bcfd, RHS).. - - - Oil Non-oil Total f - - - 7 9 Q.... Chart 9. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) - - - Total Food (%) Housing (%) - - - - Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - - f - Note: Data for Food series unavailable for the period before Jan. - - - - Chart. Budget balance (% GDP) f - - - - - Chart. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP f - Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts

GCC Economic Outlook - January Bahrain: money and finance Credit growth decelerates and stock market sees further declines; money growth picks-up on higher public spending and rising salaries Recent monetary indicators have shown a softening in financial market conditions: lending growth has eased, the stock market continues to decline and the ailing wholesale banking sector is struggling to recover. The bright spot has been the performance of retail banks, which are expected to continue their robust growth on the back of higher government salaries and improving domestic demand. An improvement in economic conditions, in addition to a number of large government projects that are expected to come on stream, should support a gradual recovery in Bahrain s financial sector. The extent of this recovery will also be contingent on global market conditions, given the large offshore banking segment s exposure to international financial markets. Despite two small dips, annual growth in the broad money supply (M) continued its steady climb throughout reaching around 7% in October from % at the start of the year. (Chart.) This rise has been supported by higher government spending and public-sector salary increases. Growth in M - a more volatile measure of the money supply - remained below % for most of the year, and growth averaged around 7% y/y for the first ten months of. Bank lending has softened in recent months. After accelerating to its highest level in years in April, the annual growth in retail bank claims receded from a peak of almost % to under % in October. (Chart.) The deceleration seems to have been driven by a sharp slowdown in growth of personal loans, which had seen super-strong growth rates of -% in the first half. On the other hand, business loans grew at a robust rate of around % y/y throughout, a large improvement on the % average in. This has been helped by the gradual pick-up in the construction and real estate sectors, which account for around a quarter of total loans. Apart from a sharp one-off rise in September, bank assets have remained under pressure for most of, falling to their lowest level in years. (Chart.) The assets of the wholesale banking sector primarily composed of foreign holdings saw a 7% drop in the first months to October, dragging down total banking system assets to below $ 9 billion. Meanwhile, the loan books of retail banks more focused domestically have maintained a relatively steady upward trend, reaching a record high of $ 7 billion in September. In line with US interest rates, the Central Bank of Bahrain s (CBB) key policy rate the one week deposit rate has remained unchanged at.%. (Chart.) Meanwhile, the Bahraini dinar lingered under. BHD per euro throughout and was % stronger year-on-year in November. (Chart 7.) This largely reflects euro weakness in light of the euro zone s debt and financial woes. The CBB s foreign exchange reserves stood at $.7 billion in the first quarter of, $. billion higher than a year ago. The stock market continued to perform poorly. The Bahrain Dow Jones stock index fell % between April and November, dropping below 9 points for the first time since. (Chart.) Market capitalization was down $. billion for the period.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Bahrain: money and finance charts Chart. Money supply Chart. Bank claims on private sector (% y/y) (% y/y) M M - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - Chart. Commercial bank assets Bank assets (USD bn, LHS) Bank assets (%y/y, RHS) Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- N.B. Includes both retail and wholesale banks. - - - - Chart. Policy interest rates (%) US Fed Funds target CBB one week deposit rate Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Chart 7. Exchange rate Chart. Stock market indices...... BHD/USD BHD/USD (real) BHD/Euro BHD/Euro (real)........ Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Dow Jones Bahrain Index Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Source: Official sources / estimates 7

GCC Economic Outlook - January Kuwait: macro forecasts Growth revised up on improved outlook for infrastructure projects; but structural reforms needed to boost long-term development Kuwait forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP.. We have revised up our forecast for real non-oil GDP in to % from %. (Chart 9.) This is largely on signs of a greater determination by Kuwaiti authorities to implement large infrastructure projects associated with the government s -year development plan that had previously stalled. These include projects in the transport, power and oil refining sectors. This should ease the economy s dependence on growth in the consumer sector, which will nevertheless remain firm thanks to high employment levels and fresh government measures to support income growth. These trends will add to Kuwait s traditional strengths of large fiscal and trade surpluses, which will provide a buffer against any fresh turbulence in the global economy. But challenges remain. Large projects carry significant implementation risks particularly those with more complex structures such as the public-private partnerships (PPPs). Moreover, the economy faces broader long-term challenges, most notably the need to create viable private sector jobs for new entrants to the workforce. The latter requires deep-rooted structural reforms in areas such as competition and privatization, the labor market, and education. Despite the surpluses, fiscal reform is also needed to put the budget on a stable long-term footing. After another year of double-digit growth in, oil production is set to be flat in. (Chart.) Production levels have reached close to their maximum of. mbpd and softer global oil market fundamentals are assumed to prompt OPEC to stabilize its output near current levels. This will push the headline rate of real GDP growth down to.% from.% in. GDP growth is assumed to slow further in on cuts in oil output, but the broader business climate remains positive. Despite robust conditions in the consumer sector, inflation continued to decelerate through, falling to just.% in October. (Chart.) This was driven by the food and housing components, but other core components remain soft, too. Some of this may reflect the lagged impact of earlier dinar strength against the euro and other currencies in lowering import prices. This is assumed to gradually unwind and as demand conditions steadily strengthen, we expect some limited upward price pressures in. But inflation is still seen averaging a moderate -% over the next two years. (Chart.) The budget is forecast to remain in huge surplus, though decline to under % of GDP over the next two years as oil revenues plateau but spending pushes higher. (Chart.) After falling in FY/, on-budget capital spending is assumed to rise steadily over the next two years on faster project implementation, but should remain close to % of total government spending. Current spending could rise by % in FY/ on increases in public sector pay and social spending, but growth slows thereafter. Meanwhile, strong oil receipts are expected to keep the current account surplus extremely strong over the forecast period at -% of GDP, implying a continued build-up in Kuwait s foreign assets. (Chart.)

GCC Economic Outlook - January Kuwait: macro forecast charts - - - Chart 9. Real GDP Chart. Crude oil output (% y/y) (mn barrels per day) Oil Non-oil Total - - f -.9..7...... Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-.9..7...... Chart. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) Food (%) Housing (7%) Total CPI Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- f Chart. Budget balance (% GDP, fiscal year) 9 7 Chart. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP 9 7 f f Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts 9

GCC Economic Outlook - January Kuwait: money and finance Credit growth sees modest improvement through ; discount rate cut attempts to stimulate economy Financial conditions remain somewhat subdued. Both deposit and lending growth remain soft on account of weak economic growth and a lack of good lending opportunities. Meanwhile, local banks remain liquid and well capitalized, though profits continue to be affected by provisioning and asset quality issues. Recent attempts to stimulate the economy including faster implementation of infrastructure projects should help support the monetary sector in. Annual growth in broad money (M) remained in the -% range through the second half of, while growth in the shorter-term measure, M has accelerated to above %. (Chart.) These growth rates have readjusted after some volatility induced by large state cash handouts in early. Although growth in private sector deposits (particularly time deposits) has been sluggish, government deposits rose strongly through at % y/y in October. This has pushed the government s share of all deposits in the banking system to a modern day high of %. Credit growth edged up through much of but overall remains soft, at % y/y in October compared to an average of % y/y in. (Chart.) This year s modest improvement has come in three areas: an acceleration in already strong consumer lending to % y/y; an easing in the rate of decline in lending to investment companies; and slightly faster lending growth in other sectors (especially retail and wholesale trade). Although consumer lending is likely to remain firm, faster economic growth and improved project execution could see a reorienting of credit growth towards business sectors in. Commercial bank assets increased 7% in the months to October, slightly faster than the rate of credit growth. (Chart 7.) Part of this reflects strong growth in banks foreign assets, which rose % y/y. The rise in foreign assets could be linked to strong liquidity conditions in the domestic market. But it also reflects a reversal of the sharp drop in overseas assets seen in 9. Banks foreign liabilities have remained more or less unchanged, leading to a sharp rise in net foreign assets to more than KD billion a record high. In an attempt to spur credit growth, the Central Bank of Kuwait cut its key lending rate, the discount rate, by.% points to.% in October. (Chart.) It was the first cut since. The benchmark deposit rate (the repo rate) was maintained at.%. With business sentiment soft and project activity stalled, the rate cut by itself may not have a large impact on credit. But along with ample liquidity conditions it has seen other rates in the financial system edge lower. The weighted rate on loans to the private sector, for example, dipped from.% in September to.9% in October. After a strong start to the year, the main un-weighted KSE index fell % from its peak in early May to November. (Chart.) This volatility was linked to movements in smaller stocks: the alternative value-weighted index has seen a small rise since May. Lower oil prices and concerns about the outlook for the global economy provided the direction for the market earlier in the year. However, the final months of saw a rally on the prospects for improved political cooperation and faster implementation of infrastructure projects.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Kuwait: money and finance charts - Chart. Money supply (% y/y) M M - Chart. Total bank credit (% y/y) - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - Chart 7. Commercial bank assets Bank assets (KD bn, LHS) Bank assets (% y/y, RHS) Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 Chart. Policy interest rates (%) US Fed funds target KD discount KD repo Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 Chart 9. Exchange rate Chart. Stock market indices.. KD stronger........ KD/USD KD/USD (real). KD/Euro KD/Euro (real). Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- KSE General Index (LHS) Value Weighted Index (RHS) 9 7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- N.B. Real exchange rate uses Jan as base period. Calculation based upon Kwt/US/Euro area CPIs. Source: Official sources / estimates

GCC Economic Outlook - January Oman: macro forecasts Solid economic growth sees expat employment surge; fiscal position remains vulnerable to lower oil prices Oman forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP.. The Omani economy continues to perform solidly, supported by high oil prices and rising public spending as the government seeks to diversify the industrial base and boost living standards. Nominal GDP grew by % y/y in H, including growth of % in the non-oil sector. In the latter, growth has been broadly-based, reaching double-digits in both industry and key service sectors such as trade, tourism and transport. We see the economy remaining on a steady path, with real non-oil GDP growth averaging up to % over the next couple of years. (Chart.) The main risk to the outlook is a sustained fall in oil prices, which could push the fiscal balance into deficit and cause cuts in public spending, weakening the economy. Official figures show private sector employment growth remains extremely buoyant likely the fastest in the Gulf. Expatriate private sector employment grew by % y/y in the months to October, following average growth of % per year in the previous three years. Growth has largely come in the construction, manufacturing and retail sectors, as well as in private households. By contrast, private sector employment of Omanis has edged down - particularly in low-paid jobs, perhaps related to the introduction of a new unemployment benefit in. Nationals account for just % of private sector employment overall. Oil output continued to edge higher in, though some of the larger-type (-7% per year) increases of the past five years associated with enhanced recovery techniques and the development of the privately-run Mukhaizna field may now have passed. (Chart.) Gas production rose by a more encouraging % in and now accounts for around 7, bpd (oil equivalent), or % of Oman s total hydrocarbon output. Real hydrocarbon GDP is expected to slow from.% in to - % per year over the next two years. Consumer price inflation remains modest, at.% y/y in October, though has risen slightly from its mid-year lows. (Chart.) The pick-up was related to a slight rise in food price inflation, as well as a large rise in education fees. In other areas, inflationary pressures appear low. Despite sharp rises in expatriate employment, for example, housing rental inflation has fallen to a five year low of.% y/y. Nevertheless, we expect inflation to rise towards % over the next two years, driven by the solid domestic growth environment and slightly firmer import price pressures. (Chart.) The government is expected to have recorded a budget surplus of % of GDP in before transfers to reserve funds. (Chart.) Nevertheless, the fiscal position remains under some pressure given the need to finance social and investment spending and a revenue structure which is more than % derived from hydrocarbon receipts. The official budget for has spending rising by a huge 9% to OR.9 billion. Due to overspending in, however, the eventual increase is likely to be much smaller than that. With oil prices at $ pb, the budget should still see a small surplus.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Oman: macro forecast charts Chart. Real GDP Chart. Crude oil output (% y/y) (mn barrels per day) Oil Non-oil Total.9.9.9.9.....7.7 - -.7.7 - f -. Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-. N.B. Includes condensate production Chart. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) - Food (%) Housing (%) Total CPI - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - - - f - - Chart. Budget balance (% GDP) Headline figure Before transfers to state reserve funds f N/A N/A N/A - - Chart. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP f - N.B. Headline figure is not forecast, since it includes discretionary government transfers to the state reserve funds. Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts

GCC Economic Outlook - January Oman: money and finance Credit growth eases slightly, but remains strong; stock market sees disappointing Monetary conditions remain consistent with strong growth in the real economy, though there were some signs of moderation in H. Annual growth in broad money (M), for example, slowed from 7% in mid-year to % by October. (Chart 7.) Part of this was linked to a slowdown in growth of government deposits, but private deposit growth has also slowed, driven by a reversal of the previous strength of time deposits. Growth in the shorter-term measure M stood at a comparable 9% y/y, though much softer than its average of 9% seen through. Private sector credit growth also slowed in H, though remained at a very solid rate of 7% y/y in October. (Chart.) This is the fastest rate in the Gulf and around double the regional average. Comfortable liquidity conditions and lending ratios well within regulatory limits are enabling banks to capitalize on the rise in government infrastructure spending. In addition, lending to consumers which accounts for more than % of all credit rose by a rapid % y/y in Q, supported by public sector hiring of nationals and rises in wages and benefits, which have boosted individual borrowing capacity. The growth in commercial bank assets decelerated to % y/y in October from peak of % in May. (Chart 9.) Total assets stand at OR billion ($ bn), or 9% of GDP. Most of the slowdown was driven by the deceleration in credit growth; lending accounts for more than two-thirds of banks balance sheets. But there were also outright declines in overseas lending and investments. These had risen aggressively in the year to May. On the liabilities side, the slowdown in the growth of government deposits has capped the sharp rise in the government s share of commercial banks deposits that has occurred over the past five years (to % from % in, including public institutions). Although a source of reliable funding, high deposit concentrations are considered a structural challenge for the banking sector. The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has maintained its main official lending rate the repo rate at % since reducing it from % in March. (Chart.) Although the repo facility is rarely used, the cut has seen the average rial commercial lending rate charged by banks fall by.% points to.7% since February. The average deposit rate has fallen by slightly more, to.%. The CBO absorbs excess liquidity in the system by issuing certificates of deposit (CDs). Rates on CDs remain very low at under.%, reflecting not just low official rates, but banks comfortable liquidity conditions and spare lending capacity. The Omani rial has been pegged to the US dollar at a fixed rate of OR. per dollar since 9. Reflecting a rise in the US dollar, the rial strengthened by % against the euro in the months to end-july. (Chart.) In real terms, it rose by an even greater %. However, on a trade-weighted basis the rial rose by a more modest % y/y. Despite a decent economic performance, the main Oman stock index had a disappointing, declining.% in the year to mid-december. (Chart.) An % slump in mid-year largely on global economic concerns was partially offset by a subsequent rebound of 7% between August and October. Trading volumes remained low.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Oman: money and finance charts Chart 7. Money supply Chart. Bank credit to private sector (% y/y) (% y/y) 7 M M - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Chart 9. Commercial bank assets Bank assets (OMR bn, LHS) Bank assets (%y/y, RHS) Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 Chart. Policy interest rates (%) US Fed funds target Oman repo Oman CDs Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 Chart. Exchange rate. OMR/USD OMR/USD (real).. OMR/Euro OMR/Euro (real)....... OMR stronger...... Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 9 7 Chart. Stock market indices (MSM index) 9 7 Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- N.B. Real exchange rate uses Jan as base period. Calculation based upon Oman/US/Euro area CPIs. Source: Official sources / estimates

GCC Economic Outlook - January Qatar: macro forecasts Non-hydrocarbon sector is poised to drive growth, facilitated by government investment spending; inflation moderate but rising as rental prices rebound... Qatar forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y..9 - Non-Oil % y/y. 7. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP. 7. By the end of, Qatar s economy should benefit from its first full year of maximum LNG output (77 million tonnes). This will cap a remarkable decade of investment and expansion in the country s gas sector which has delivered double-digit average annual growth and seen Qatar assume the mantle of the world s largest LNG exporter and highest per capita income country. In view of the completion of LNG expansion and the moratorium on further gas exploration in the North Field until at least, growth is set to moderate substantially. As a result, real GDP is forecast to slow to % during -. (Chart.) Moreover, pending enhancement and further development of the country s aging oil fields, which is scheduled over the next few years, oil production is likely to remain below potential. (Chart.) Economic expansion will therefore be driven largely by developments in the non-hydrocarbon sector - manufacturing, construction and services especially. Manufacturing output will be boosted by the attainment of full production at the, bpd Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility during - as well as further expansion in petrochemical and fertilizer production, of which Qatar Fertilizer Company s QAFCO- project and Qatar Petrochemical Company s (QAPCO) low density polyethylene plant LDPE are notable examples. Meanwhile, as the government proceeds with realizing its National Development Strategy -, a pipeline of major infrastructure projects - including the $ billion Lusail development, the $7. billion New Doha International Airport and a host of road, railway and associated World Cup construction projects - will, alongside the government s broader efforts to position Qatar as a financial services and tourism hub, gain increased momentum. While inflation is expected to repeat its performance of and average.9% y/y in, it is forecast to pick up in and and reach.% y/y and.% y/y, respectively. (Charts &.) This is largely due to a turnaround in the rental component of the consumer price index, which has, since the middle of, posted consecutive monthly increases. Demand in that sector, spurred on by an expansion in the workforce, finally looks to be rising to meet the oversupply that has characterised the Qatari real estate market since the financial crisis. In spite of relatively muted global food and commodity prices and a stronger US dollar, which are tempering inflation for the moment, domestic pressures stemming from rising consumer demand and expansive fiscal and monetary policies are likely to feature in the medium term inflation outlook. After posting a record fiscal surplus in -, Qatar s budget balance is expected to narrow in and, to.% and 7.% of GDP, respectively, as current and capital spending increases are expected to outpace revenue growth. (Chart 7.) The current account surplus is also projected to decline over the next two years, from 9% of GDP in to % of GDP in, reflecting rising imports and softer hydrocarbon prices. (Chart.)

GCC Economic Outlook - January Qatar: macro forecast charts Chart. Real GDP Chart. Crude oil output (% y/y) (mn barrels per day) Hydrocarbon Non-hydrocarbon Total f......7.7.7.7 Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-......7.7.7.7 Chart. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) - - Total CPI Food (%) Rent, fuel & energy (%) - - - - - Q Q7 Q Q9 Q Q Q - - f - Chart 7. Budget balance (% GDP) $ billions % of GDP f 7 Chart. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP f 7 Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts 7

GCC Economic Outlook - January Qatar: money and finance QCB facilitating liquidity management; robust credit growth driven by the public sector; buoyant wholesale funding and debt securities markets In, the monetary authorities stepped up their efforts to improve liquidity management, developing a domestic debt market through the auctioning of QR billion worth of treasury bills every month. The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has also launched, in partnership with Bloomberg, the QIBOR fixing to standardise and promote the interbank market. The expansion in the money supply, as measured by M, a broad indicator that takes into account time and foreign currency deposits as well as M, continues to proceed apace, reaching % y/y in October. (Chart 9.) M has benefitted from a doubling in foreign currency deposits over the course of, mainly from the public sector. Robust credit growth of % y/y in October has further facilitated Qatar s economic expansion. (Chart.) Bank lending, however, continues to be driven primarily by the financing needs of the public sector, particularly government institutions as they proceed with implementation of the country s development plans. Credit to the private sector - much of it directed towards real estate projects - will need to accelerate and diversify if the corporate sector is to broaden and deepen its productive capacity. Lending for personal consumption, meanwhile, has been sluggish, affected by the introduction of caps on retail loans by the QCB in. to be lagging behind credit growth - aggregate loan-to-deposit ratios were as high as % in April and the overnight deposit rate had risen to a year high in May/June - but the signs are that it has improved in recent months, helped by a surge in foreign currency deposits. Nevertheless, both interbank funds, especially from overseas, and debt securities have featured increasingly in the funding profile of banks in recent years. Qatar National Bank s $ billion, -year bond issue is a recent high profile example. In view of the Qatari riyal s peg to the US dollar, domestic interest rates - the QMR lending and deposit rates - are broadly aligned with US rates; since the US Federal Reserve intends to keep the federal funds rate low at.% until at least mid-, rate cuts are not envisaged over the next two years. (Chart.) A resumption in hot money inflows or a significant rise in imported inflation (if the dollar weakens) could be scenarios where the QCB might intervene to adjust rates - as they did twice in, reducing them to minimise financial arbitrage - but these are not anticipated. The riyal, in line with the dollar, depreciated during H. (Chart.) Qatar s currency has been pegged to the dollar since 9 at a fixed rate of QR. to the dollar, conferring a measure of stability to Qatar s dollar-denominated hydrocarbon exports. Burgeoning domestic credit has, consequently, driven the double-digit increase in commercial banks assets in. These reached QR 79 billion in October, an increase of % y/y. (Chart.) Liquidity was a concern earlier in the year when deposit growth seemed The QE index, which outperformed its GCC peers in, fell by % in. (Chart.) It also remains under review for upgrade to the MSCI emerging markets index. Following on from the listing of T-bills on the exchange, plans are also afoot to introduce trading in ETFs and sovereign bonds as well as an SME junior bourse.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Qatar: money and finance charts Chart 9. Money supply Chart. Bank credit (% y/y) (% y/y) M M - - - - Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Total Public sector Private sector - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - 7 Chart. Commercial bank assets Bank assets (QR bn, LHS) Bank assets (% y/y, RHS) Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- 7 Chart. Policy interest rates (%) QMR lending rate QMR deposit rate US Federal funds rate Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Chart. Exchange rate Chart. Stock market 7........ QAR/USD QAR/USD (real) QAR/Euro QAR/Euro (real) QAR stronger.. Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 7........ QE index Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- N.B. Real exchange rate uses Jan as base period. Calculation based upon Qatar/US/Euro area CPIs. Source: Official sources / estimates 9

GCC Economic Outlook - January Saudi Arabia: macro forecasts Strong growth sustained by government spending on infrastructure and wages; budget surplus to shrink KSA forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP 7.. The economic environment has benefited from high oil prices and production, as well as a surge in government infrastructure spending and public sector wage growth. These will continue to generate solid growth going forward. (Chart.) However, while the economy still has considerable near-term momentum, longer-term growth prospects depend upon enhancing the role of the private sector through structural reforms. In addition, rising government spending and a continued reliance upon oil revenues have focused attention on the government s fiscal position, which the IMF predicts could move into deficit by 7. As oil prices have softened, Saudi Arabia s oil output has eased back from its mid-year highs. Crude oil production stood at 9.7 mbpd in November, down from 9.9 mbpd in June. (Chart.) Barring a major global downturn, we expect Saudi Arabia to remain comfortable with oil prices at around $ pb well above the kingdom s likely budget breakeven oil price for the next couple of years. This should imply only gradual declines in Saudi oil output as the authorities attempt to balance a slightly looser global oil market. Following two successive years of increases, real oil-gdp is seen declining by % in and % the year after. Indicators such as ATM and point-of-sale figures, bank lending, and the purchasing managers index suggest that private non-oil sector activity levels remain solid. But the boost from s exceptional government spending measures may be fading and combined with supply bottlenecks and slightly tighter project funding conditions non-oil growth is expected to edge down to % next year from % in. Despite the economy s broad health, fresh employment regulations that penalize firms that hire more expatriates than nationals could weigh on corporate sector growth in. Inflation decelerated through most of, falling to.% y/y in October from.% in February. (Chart 7.) The decline was driven by falling inflation in the housing and other subcomponents. The latter could be related to a reduction in import prices linked to the strengthening of the riyal between mid- and mid-, which has since partially unwound. Strong economic growth, upward pressure on wages for nationals and a modest rebound in import prices are expected to push inflation to a moderate, if manageable % in and. (Chart.) The budget surplus is expected to decline from % of GDP to 7% in. (Chart 9.) Government spending is projected to grow at a solid rate in order to finance infrastructure development and as the government seeks to boost employment and living standards. Meanwhile, revenues are forecast to decline as oil prices and production dip. We estimate that the oil price needed to balance the budget stood at $7 pb in, and could move above $ in. Softer oil prices and oil production, added to continued strong growth in imports will see the current account surplus shrink in and. Nevertheless, it will remain large, at -% of GDP. (Chart.)

GCC Economic Outlook - January Saudi Arabia: macro forecast charts - - Chart. Real GDP Chart. Crude oil output (% y/y) (mn barrels per day) Oil Non-oil Total - f -. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9...... 7. 7. Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9...... 7. 7. - Chart 7. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) Food (%) Housing (%) Total CPI Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - 9 7 f 9 7 Chart 9. Budget balance (% GDP) Chart. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP - - - f - f Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts

GCC Economic Outlook - January Saudi Arabia: money and finance Strong growth in private-sector lending on the back of high government spending; rising deposits support liquidity growth The Saudi financial sector has benefited from robust economic growth levels in. Banks have fared especially well: high government spending has helped drive private-sector business activity, creating more lending opportunities. This, coupled with rising deposits, ample liquidity and lower provisioning has lifted banking system assets to record highs. After a sharp deceleration early in the year (mainly due to a base effect), annual growth in the money supply picked-up in H. Year-on-year growth in M the short-term measure edgedup to % in October from a -year low of % in April. (Chart.) This was driven by strong growth in demand deposits which had reached a record high of SAR 79 billion. Similarly, broad money supply growth (M) climbed back to % y/y in October, close to the growth rates seen at the start of the year. Credit growth has continued to accelerate, rising to over % y/y in October. (Chart.) This expansion in private-sector credit has been driven by ample liquidity, high government spending and robust economic activity levels. Lending growth has even outpaced that of deposits, with the loan-todeposit ratio rising to % in October from 7% at the start of the year. Planned government projects on infrastructure and residential development will continue to underpin business activity and lending opportunities, specifically in the corporate loans segment, which accounts for around % of total lending. Meanwhile, the newly enacted mortgage law should also help spur growth in consumer housing loans. Commercial bank assets rose by more than % in the ten months to October to just under SAR.7 trillion an all-time high. (Chart.) This was driven by strong growth in claims on the private sector, which grew at a healthy % y/y in the first quarters of. By contrast, bank claims on government entities, largely in the form of treasury bills, fell by some % y/y in the period, as banks increasingly gear excess liquidity towards extending new loans rather than government securities. SAMA s main policy interest rates the repo and reverse repo rates have remained at % and.% respectively. (Chart.) Meanwhile, interbank rates edged-up during, reflecting strong credit growth rates; the three-month Saudi interbank rate (SAIBOR) climbed to.% in December, its highest level in almost years. In line with its peg to the US dollar, the Saudi riyal continued to strengthen in the first 7 months of, climbing by some % against the euro. (Chart.) However, the following months saw the riyal weaken by some %, eliminating all of the gains seen earlier in the year. After a brief rally in Q, the Saudi Tadawul All Share index had, by December, fallen by more than % from its peak in March to December. The majority of this decline, however, happened in Q, with the index remaining somewhat steady in the remaining part of. Activity on the stock exchange was affected by oil price movements throughout the year.

GCC Economic Outlook - January Saudi Arabia: money and finance charts Chart. Money supply Chart. Bank credit to the private sector (% y/y) (% y/y) M M Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- - - Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Chart. Commercial bank assets Bank assets (SAR bn, LHS) 7 Bank assets (%y/y, RHS) 9 Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Chart. Policy interest rates (%) KSA repo US Fed funds target Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-...... Chart. Exchange rate SAR stronger SAR/USD SAR/Euro SAR/USD (real) SAR/Euro (real).. Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- N.B. Real exchange rate uses Jan as base period. Calculation based upon KSA/US/Euro area CPIs....... 9 7 Chart. Stock market indices (All share index) 9 7 Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Source: Official sources / estimates

GCC Economic Outlook - January UAE: macro forecasts Debt overhang remains a drag on growth, despite signs of improvement in real economy UAE forecast summary f f Real GDP % y/y.7. - Non-Oil % y/y.. Inflation (yr avg) %.. Budget balance % GDP.. Real non-oil GDP is forecast to grow by % for the next two years, well below its - annual average of 9%. (Chart 7.) Parts of the economy notably trade, tourism and business services now seem to be doing well, helped by the country s strong trade links with emerging markets, high quality infrastructure and possibly a boost to competitiveness from a sustained spell of low inflation. However, legacy issues from the financial crisis continue to blight the banking sector, notably the slow pace of restructuring at large government-related corporates. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation has seen public sector investment heavily scaled back. The Dubai real estate sector has seen some signs of revival, with rents, prices and transaction volumes all reported to be rising in some areas. A property market revival would improve the outlook for banks, which still face asset quality pressures from their real estate loans. Central Bank data shows that real estate loans accounted for % of banks total loan books in September. Despite recent signs of improvement, transaction volumes and prices remain at least % below their boom-time peaks, the supply overhang remains considerable and any improvement in bank property lending is likely to be gradual. UAE crude oil output hit a modern day high in September, at. mbpd. (Chart.) As with other major Gulf oil exporters, output is expected to ease back over the next two years as OPEC responds to softer global oil market fundamentals by cutting back its production to maintain oil prices at close to $ pb. In annual average terms, this leaves oil output unchanged in, followed by a % fall in. Affected by this, overall real GDP growth is seen at a modest.7% in, and lower still in, even if on the ground economic conditions are improving. Inflation is set to have come in at just.7% on average in and will likely remain the lowest in the region in. (Chart 9.) A significant drop in food price inflation which fell from % y/y in January to.% y/y in October has been a major factor and helped offset a slower pace of deflation in housing rents. But even excluding these items, inflation remained tame at just.% y/y in October. Weak credit conditions and below trend economic growth should help keep price pressures in check over the next year. (Chart 7.) After a surge of 9% in due to government assistance to local corporates, UAE budget spending may have contracted in as bailout measures dropped out of the annual comparison. Along with strong oil revenues, this should have pushed the budget into surplus (at least including off balance sheet revenue items) for the first time in years. (Chart 7.) Smaller surpluses of less than % of GDP are seen over the next two years as oil revenues plateau but spending edges higher. Similarly, the surplus on the current account is seen declining from 7% of GDP in to just % in as a stronger domestic economy sucks in imports but oil export receipts dip. (Chart 7.)

GCC Economic Outlook - January UAE: macro forecast charts Chart 7. Real GDP Chart. Crude oil output (% y/y) (mn barrels per day) Oil Non-oil Total.7..7....... - -.. - - F. Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-. Chart 9. Consumer price inflation by sector Chart 7. Consumer price inflation (% y/y) (% y/y, year average) - - Total CPI Food (%) Housing (9%) - Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- - - - f Chart 7. Budget balance (% GDP) Headline figure Incl inv inc & ADNOC profits Chart 7. Current account balance $ billions % of GDP - - - - - - - f - f Source: Official sources / estimates and forecasts

GCC Economic Outlook - January UAE: money and finance Asset quality concerns weigh on Dubai banks; but UAE stock markets outperform GCC peers in Monetary conditions have somewhat improved, though a combination of lingering asset quality issues at banks, tighter regulatory conditions and sluggish economic growth more generally remains a constraint. Annual growth in the broad M money supply measure turned negative midyear and remained below % in Q. (Chart 7.) This may be partly attributed to seasonal factors, but that is not the whole story: on a year average basis, M growth at % is likely to have been its weakest in modern times in. The annual growth in short-term money M remained comparatively firm at around % in October, with the attraction of short-term funds boosted by the low interest rate environment. Bank lending growth has shown little sign of taking off and remained at under % y/y in October. (Chart 7.) This weakness reflects soft credit demand and continued corporate sector deleveraging. In addition, the subdued economic climate and corporate sector restructuring continue to undermine bank asset quality, inhibiting banks lending capabilities. Total bank provisions actually fell slightly in October for the first time in more than two years, but non-performing loan levels are expected to remain high, particularly for Dubaibased banks. While residential real estate prices have shown signs of recovery, oversupply in the commercial property sector is expected to pose an ongoing challenge for UAE banks. Meanwhile, the authorities continue to take steps to clean-up the banking system and reduce its resilience to future shocks. On top of the public sector exposure limits announced by the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) in April (the implementation of which has been delayed), the central bank has also introduced new caps restricting mortgage loans to % of the property value for expatriates (and 7% for nationals). The move is aimed at dampening speculation in the property market, though could also hit house prices and add to banks asset quality concerns. The CBUAE s main policy lending rate the repo rate has remained at its record low of % since January 9. (Chart 7.) This is slightly above the.% US Federal funds target rate. Market interest rates also remain low thanks partly to ample liquidity levels in the system. The -month interbank rate fell to.% by year-end from.% in July. Meanwhile, the gradual improvement in Dubai s economy and in capital market conditions has seen a decline in the market perception of default risk on Dubai government debt. Five-year credit default swap rates on Dubai government debt fell to a post-crisis low of 7 basis points by end- from a year earlier. In line with its peg against the US dollar, the UAE dirham strengthened by % against the euro in the months to July. (Chart 77.) However, the dirham had given up nearly half of these gains by the end of, as the euro rallied. On a trade-weighted basis, we estimate that the dirham appreciated by around % through. UAE equity markets outperformed their GCC peers through. The main Abu Dhabi index rose by %, while the main Dubai index increased by %. (Chart 7.) The latter, however, was still off 7% from its highs recorded in March.