EASTERN CAPE BAROMETER
1.1 Eastern Cape Barometer Eastern Cape Barometer 1.2 Eastern Cape Growth Index 125 Eastern Cape Growth Index 115 105 1.3 Eastern Cape Stress Index
Eastern Cape Stress Index 1.4 Agricultural Index 1.5 Manufacturing Index
115 105 95 Manufacturing Index 85 80 1.6 Construction Index 140 Construction Index 80 70 60 1.7 Transport and Communication Index
180 170 160 150 Transport & Communication Index 140 1.8 Electricity Index 140 Electricity Index 1.9 Trade Index
125 Trade Index 115 105 Financial, Real Estate and Business Services Index 140 Finance, Real Estate and Business Services Index 80 70
1.10 Government Index 160 150 140 Goverment 80 1.11 Eastern Cape Barometer (% Change YoY) 15% 10% Eastern Cape Barometer (% Change YoY) 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1.12 Eastern Cape Growth Index (% Change YoY)
10% 5% Eastern Cape Growth Index (% Change YoY) 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 1.13 Eastern Cape Stress Index (% Change YoY) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Eastern Cape Stress Index YoY % change -15% How do Sake24 provincial barometers work?
The Sake24 provincial barometers measure business activity levels of four leading South African private sector provinces. These provinces are Gauteng, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and the Free State. The barometer for an individual province consists of a set of sub indices that not only measures the overall performance of the province, but also individual economic subsectors. The barometers were developed by renowned economist Mike Schüssler. They are unique as they are developed specifically for an individual province. The information is sourced from a comprehensive range of individual time series that is specific to the particular province. These time series is sourced from various sources, including Stats SA, industry bodies and individual companies. The data is deflated and seasonally adjusted and their contribution to the provincial indices weighted to their actual contribution. The individual provincial barometers do not measure economic growth, but highlights how the private sector economy reacts to changing market conditions. It highlights the immediate health of the provincial economy and its underlying economic sectors. The information is published monthly and will provide key information to all entrepreneurs and business owners, as well decision-makers in the provincial government and industry bodies. The individual provincial barometers compile detailed main and sub indices for the following sectors: The provincial barometers are developed specifically for individual provinces. They are compiled from numerous statistical time series in various economic sectors. These time series and their sources include: Time series Source Building statistics (comprehensive residential and industrial) Cement sales Retail sales Wholesale sales Electricity generated Cargo handling Vehicle sales (in all segments) Airport arrivals at international airports Fuel sales (comprehensive info for all sectors) Property transfers Instalment sales Asset management Civil debt judgements Mortgages registered Unemployment (indexing of job advertisements in newspapers) Advertising volumes (total advertising in all mainstream radio and newspapers) Interest rates Inflation Manufacturing Mining Sectors 1. Growth Index (measures real growth in activity levels in all individual sectors) Western Cape Gauteng CNCI NPA Naamsa Acsa Sapia Property24 Reserve Bank ACI Property24 /Media24 Media24 Reserve Bank Eastern Cape Free State Agriculture 11 0 9 10 Mining 2 1 0 6 Electricity 1 1 1 1 Manufacturing 10 10 10 10 Construction 11 11 11 11 Trade 27 27 29 29 Transport 5 2 5 2 Financial, real 25 18 18 18 estate and business services Economic 9 9 6 4 Stress Total 101 79 89 91 The first table depicts the actual time series and their respective sources. The second shows how many individual time series are used to compile the individual provincial barometers.
2. Economic Stress (measures the negative factors in the economy, and is an indication of how difficult it is to do business in the province). 3. The main provincial barometer 4. Agriculture 5. Construction 6. Financial and business services 7. Electricity 8. Manufacturing 9. Transport 10. Trade (includes retail and wholesale, as well as tourism and entertainment) The Growth Index is compiled through the consolidation of the performance of all the individual economic sectors. This growth index does not take into account the negative elements in the provincial economy. The Economic Stress Index measures these negative stresses. The provincial barometer is compiled by deflating the Growth Index with the Economic Stress Index. For more information about the Sake24 provincial barometers, contact Mike Schussler on 011 781 9980 or Ryk van Niekerk, assistant editor of Sake24, at 021 406 2079 or ryk.vanniekerk@sake24.com.