AES CORPORATION Sanford C. Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference Paul Hanrahan President and Chief Executive Officer May 31, 2006 1
Safe Harbor Disclosure Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES s business operations may constitute forward looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and financial and operating performance. Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES s current expectations based on reasonable assumptions. Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. These assumptions include, but are not limited to continued normal or better levels of operating performance and electricity demand at our distribution companies and operational performance at our contract generation businesses consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements and incremental growth from investments at investment levels and rates of return consistent with prior experience. For additional assumptions see the Appendix to this presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed in AES s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including but not limited to the risks discussed under Item 1A Risk Factors in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 as well as our other SEC filings. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2
Agenda Background on AES Industry observations and implications Company performance Opportunities for growth 3
Agenda Background on AES Industry observations and implications Company performance Opportunities for growth 4
AES Overview AES has a strong position in the industry through portfolio diversification Geographic diversity Fuel diversity Technology diversity Business line diversity: generation and distribution Growing portfolio of businesses in adjacent markets 5
Broad Global Footprint The capacity to serve 100 million people 127 generation plants 14 distribution businesses 26 countries 5 continents 44,000 MW installed generation capacity Annual distribution sales of over 82,000 GWh in 2005 6
Beyond Traditional Power Coal Mining Water Desalination Steam Heating Coal Generation Transmission Distribution CO 2 Recovery LNG Regasification Greenhouse Gas Offset Production 7
Agenda Background on AES Industry observations and implications Company performance Opportunities for growth 8
General Observations on Industry and Implications Growing global demand for new capacity Increased fuel volatility Changing environmental regulations Large amounts of capital in search of deals 9
The Case for Global Investment Contains Forward Looking Statements Macro Driver 1: Global GDP shifting to Non- OECD economies Macro Driver 2: Non-OECD electricity demand growth potential 39.9% 44.4% 8,621 1,321 2000 2006E OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD GDP % of World GDP 2003 Per Capita Power Consumption (KWh) Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2005. 10
$3 Trillion in New Generation Capacity Worldwide Forecasted Through 2015 160 Contains Forward Looking Statements Global Capacity Additions (GW) 120 80 40 0 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Asia EMEA Latin America North America Almost 90% of expected worldwide generation capacity investment through 2015 will be outside North America Source: CERA. EMEA = Europe, Middle East & Africa. 11
Volatile Energy Prices $ 15 2005 $/mmbtu 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Oil ($30-$60/bbl) Gas ($4-$7/Mcf) Coal ($1.15-$1.70/mmbtu) Sources: EIA, ICF, Hill, Boyd, AES estimates. 12
Scenarios Can Affect Technology Competitiveness 14 12 U.S. 2015 Production Cost Contains Forward Looking Statements 10 cents/kwh 8 6 4 2 0 Coal Gas Oil Wind Biomass IGCC Geothermal Solar Nuclear Current AES Capabilities Base costs CO 2 offset cost ($15/ton) Production tax credit/subsidy High fuel price increment Low capacity factor (wind), low quality site (geothermal) (1) Base costs include fixed and variable costs except CO 2 offset cost, less any production tax credit or subsidy. Sources: CERA, EIA, AWEA, AES estimates. 13
Changing Environmental Regulations Renewable production tax credits European renewable operating credits US Energy Power Act of 2005 RPS commitments: 20 US states Waste disposal programs Mercury standards EU ETS Particulate emissions limits SO 2 and NO X programs Ethanol production credits Global clean water initiatives Australian GHG program Kyoto Protocol: 150 countries Create opportunities, especially in the areas of renewables and CO 2 offsets 14
Abundant Capital Creates Portfolio Management Opportunities Contains Forward Looking Statements $150 Market Capitalization US$1.7 billion 4/25 Secondary offering of 7.6% of AES s Gener shares at CP$130.5 (Chilean pesos) $125 $100 Market Capitalization US$1.2 billion Liquidity Discount US$500 MM $75 January February March April May Gener Stock Price Other examples: Kingston, Canada plant investment sale 15
Agenda Background on AES Industry observations and implications Company performance Opportunities for growth 16
Meeting Our Commitments $ billions except per share amounts Contains Forward Looking Statements Guidance Element 2003 Actual Original 2008 Guidance From 2003 Analyst Meeting 2005 Actual Updated 2008 Guidance Gross Gross Margin Margin $2.5 $2.9 $3.2 $3.5 Diluted EPS From Continuing Operations $0.49 $1.03-1.34 $0.96 $1.18-1.34 Net Cash From Operating Activities $1.6 $2.1 $2.2 $2.6-2.9 17
KPI Focus Heat Rate in Asia Heat rate improved in 2005 for over half of the AES plants that identify it as a key driver OPGC Heat Rate (Btu/KWh) 11,200 11,110 11,000 10,899 Getting Better OPGC, India and Kelanitissa, Sri Lanka Improved component operations through a series of targeted operating and capital investments Improved maintenance and work identification processes Increased rigor in monitoring and immediately addressing heat rate deviations Results: 3% and 1% improvement, respectively, since 2003 10,800 10,756 10,600 2003 2004 2005 Kelanitissa Heat Rate (Btu/KWh) 7,900 7,862 Getting Better 7,800 7,821 7,725 7,700 12/03 6/04 12/04 6/05 12/05 18
KPI Focus Utility Losses in Latin America Eletropaulo Total Losses (1) 15% 14% 13% 12% 14.4% 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 AES El Salvador Total Losses (2) 10% 9% 8% 9.6% 9.2% 12.9% 8.7% 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 (1) Trailing 12 months, excludes rebilled energy. (2) Trailing 12 months. Getting Better Getting Better In 2005 every AES regulated utility improved year-over-year total loss rates Eletropaulo, Brazil Refocused loss reduction efforts Increased number and efficiency of theft inspections Results: 10% improvement since beginning of 2004 and normalized 188 MWh in 2005 AES El Salvador Improved meter inspections and follow up (replacement and recalibration) Improved meter reading practices Changed 73,000 obsolete meters in 2004-2005 Result: 10% improvement since 2003 19
Improving Credit Statistics Parent Debt ($ millions) Credit Statistics Support Strong BB/Ba2 Rating Goals Target Parent Debt/Subsidiary Distributions Coverage Ratio 4.5 to 5x $5,950 $6,000 $3,000 5.6x Getting Better $5,163 $4,892 5.1x 4.9x 12x 6x Parent Debt/ Subsidiary Distributions (1) $0 0x $0 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Subsidiary Distributions (1) ($ millions) $1,500 Target Parent Interest Coverage Ratio 2 to 2.5x $750 $1,054 $1,004 $993 1.9x 2.1x 2.3x 4x 2x 0x Parent Interest Coverage Ratio (1) Parent Debt Parent Debt/Subsidiary Distributions (1) (1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix. Subsidiary Distributions (1) Parent Interest Coverage Ratio (1) 20
Strong Cash Flow Trends Continue Contains Forward Looking Statements ($ billions) $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Net cash from operating activities Over $5 billion free cash flow (1) 2003 2006E 2003 2004 2005 2006E Maintenance capital expenditures (2) Free cash flow (1) 2005 highlights Net cash from operating activities $2.16 billion Free cash flow $1.53 billion 2006 guidance reflects: Higher maintenance capital expenditures U.S. environmental projects that are expected to generate positive returns (1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix. (2) Based on midpoints of 2006 guidance of $2.2 to $2.3 billion net cash provided by operating activities, maintenance capital expenditures of $800 to $900 million, and free cash flow of $1.3 to $1.5 billion. 21
Agenda Background on AES Industry observations and implications Company performance Opportunities for growth 22
Disciplined Use of Growing Free Cash Flow 2006 Free Cash Flow (1) Profile 2006 Strategy Contains Forward Looking Statements 2007-2008 and Beyond Strategy Free Cash Flow (1) $1,400 MM Parent Free Cash Flow $350 MM Optimize Annually Achieve BB/Ba2 credit metrics Rebuild development pipeline Invest for growth Alternatives if growth projects don t develop at adequate returns Investment grade credit Cash dividends Share repurchases Subsidiary Free Cash Flow $1,050 MM Subsidiary debt reduction Platform expansion Dividends (AES and minority owners) (1) Non-GAAP financial measure based on midpoint of 2006 guidance of $1.3 to $1.5 billion and is reconciled from 2006 guidance for net cash from operating activities of $2.2 to $2.3 billion less maintenance capital expenditures of $800 $900 million. Estimated allocation of this midpoint 2006 free cash flow guidance is approximately $350 million at the parent company and $1,050 million at subsidiaries. 23
Growth Investment and Portfolio Management Strategy Traditional Development Greenfield projects Platform expansions Acquisitions Privatizations New and Adjacent Markets LNG regasification Greenhouse gas emission offsets Alternative energy Coal mining Portfolio Management Minority interest sales to partners Access attractive local capital markets Asset sales 24
Strong Development Pipeline Contains Forward Looking Statements Project placement is approximate. Development Stage Total Projects Total Countries Traditional # Gross MW Alt. Energy/ Adj. Mkts. (2) Envir./ Other (3) Early 94 33 60 * 34 0 Advanced (1) 7 4 3 820 3 1 Engineering/construction 9 7 4 2,140 0 5 (1) Includes projects with signed PPAs or significant permitting completed. AES may not yet have announced some projects at this stage. (2) Includes alternative energy projects (e.g., wind, LNG, climate change), as well as projects in new and adjacent markets. (3) Includes environmental projects for existing portfolio with return on investment, as well as major maintenance capital projects. 25
Platform Expansion Example: Gener Ventanas Plant, Chile Contains Forward Looking Statements Los Vientos 120MW diesel-fired power plant $37 million capital cost 2006 start-up Supports peaking, fuel diversification and hydrology risk management strategies Fits existing generation tariff structure Proposed coal-fired power plants 200-250MW plants at existing Guacolda and Ventanas sites 2009 Start-Up Combined capital costs $600 million Participating in Chilean RFP process Platform expansion revenue potential $175 million by 2010 (combined basis) Other examples: 150MW Changuinola, Panama hydroelectric project 26
Greenfield Investment Example: Bulgaria 670MW lignite-fired power plant $1.4 billion project cost Strong commercial and financing terms 15 year contract with national utility 15 year lignite supply agreement minimizes energy supply risks Letter of government support 790 million non-recourse financing closed in December with commercial and multilateral banks $600 million unsecured corporate credit facility for letter of credit support Commenced construction May 2006 $300 million+ expected annual revenues Contains Forward Looking Statements Proposed AES Maritza Plant, Bulgaria Other examples: 1,200MW Cartagena power plant, Spain (in construction) 27
New and Adjacent Markets Investment Example: Wind Global installed capacity expected to increase by 100% over the next five years Operating 600MW of wind projects 121MW Buffalo Gap wind farm in Texas recently completed 54MW wind acquisition in California announced in April Pursuing 2,000MW of additional projects US China India Europe Central America South America GW 200 150 100 50 0 Contains Forward Looking Statements Forecasted Worldwide Installed Wind Capacity 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: EER. 28
New and Adjacent Markets Investment Example: LNG Regasification Supply to the U.S. to increase from 3% today to 20% in 2020 Developing LNG regasification terminals in: Bahamas Boston Baltimore Contains Forward Looking Statements TCF U.S. Projected Natural Gas Demand 28 24 20 16 12 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook. LNG imports Conventional sources 29
New and Adjacent Markets Investment Example: GHG Emissions Offsets New environmental regulations expected to create a $10 billion a year market for emission offset credits $100 million in investments to date will generate over 17 million tonnes of carbon reduction Contains Forward Looking Statements Allocation Below Business as Usual Case Tonnes per Year EU ETS 60 Million Kyoto Phase I 550 Million Kyoto Phase II (Proposed) 1.5 to 3.0 Billion 05 08 12 20 30
Why Invest in AES? Contains Forward Looking Statements Global demand for power continues to grow $3 trillion in new generation capacity by 2015 Feeding growth in new and adjacent markets AES is well positioned to leverage market opportunities and industry dynamics Global reach, local insights Portfolio diversity, financial flexibility Focused on long-term value creation with sustained growth in EPS, free cash flow and ROIC (1) (1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix. 31
AES: The power of being global. Thank you. 32
Appendix: Definitions EPS Earnings per share. Free Cash Flow Net cash from operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures. Maintenance capital expenditures reflect property additions less growth capital expenditures. Interest coverage The ratio of subsidiary distributions to parent interest expense. O&M Operation and maintenance. Parent debt is the same as recourse debt. Parent interest expense Interest expense less non-recourse interest expense. Return on invested capital (ROIC) Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) divided by average capital. NOPAT is defined as income before tax and minority expense plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at effective tax rate. Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total debt plus minority interest plus stockholders equity less debt service reserves and other deposits. Subsidiary distributions Cash distributions (primarily dividends and interest income) from subsidiary companies to the parent company and qualified holding companies. These cash flows are the source of cash flow to the parent to meet corporate interest, overhead, cash taxes, and discretionary uses such as recourse debt reductions and corporate investments. 33
Appendix: Assumptions Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: 1) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; 2 ) businesses continue to operate in a manner consistent with or better than prior operating performance, including achievement of planned productivity improvements including benefits of global sourcing, and in accordance with the provisions of their relevant contracts or concessions; 3) new business opportunities are available to AES in sufficient quantity so that AES can capture its historical market share or increase its share; 4) no material disruptions or discontinuities occur in GDP, foreign exchange rates, inflation or interest rates during the forecast period; 5) negative factors do not combine to create highly negative low-probability business situations; 6) material business-specific risks as described in the Company s SEC filings do not occur. In addition, benefits from global sourcing include avoided costs, reduction in capital project costs versus budgetary estimates, and projected savings based on assumed spend volume, which may or may not actually be achieved. Also, improvement in certain KPIs such as EFOR and commercial availability may not improve financial performance at all facilities based on commercial terms and conditions. These benefits will not be fully reflected in the Company s consolidated financial results. Also, the cash held at qualifying holding companies (QHCs) represents cash sent to subsidiaries of the Company domiciled outside of the U.S. Such subsidiaries had no contractual restrictions on their ability to send cash to AES, the parent company. Cash at those subsidiaries was used for investment and related activities outside of the U.S. These investments included equity investments and loans to other foreign subsidiaries as well as development and general costs and expenses incurred outside the U.S. Since the cash held by these qualifying holding companies is available to the parent, AES uses the combined measure of subsidiary distributions to parent and qualified holding companies as a useful measure of cash available to the parent to meet its international liquidity needs. AES believes that unconsolidated parent company liquidity is important to the liquidity position of AES as a parent company because of the non-recourse nature of most of AES s indebtedness. 34
Appendix: Reconciliation of Subsidiary Distributions Total subsidiary distributions & returns of capital to parent 2005 2004 2003 Subsidiary distributions to parent Net distributions to/(from) QHCs $988 5 $991 13 $1,008 46 Total subsidiary distributions 993 1,004 1,054 Returns of capital distributions to parent Net returns of capital distributions to/(from) QHCs 44 13 116 11 242 -- Total returns of capital distributions 57 127 242 Combined distributions & return of capital received 1,050 1,131 1,296 Less: combined net distributions & returns of capital to/(from) QHCs (18) (24) (46) Total subsidiary distributions & returns of capital to parent $1,032 $1,107 $1,250 See page 22 for definitions of non-gaap financial measures. 35
Appendix: Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow and Parent Interest Expense 2005 2004 2003 Free cash flow reconciliation Net cash from operating activities $2,165 $1,571 $1,642 Maintenance capital expenditures (631) (507) (542) Free cash flow $1,534 $1,064 $1,100 Parent interest expense reconciliation Non-recourse interest expense $1,470 $1,459 $1,415 Parent (recourse) interest expense 426 473 569 Total interest expense $1,896 $1,932 $1,984 See page 22 for definitions of non-gaap financial measures. 36
Appendix: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Net Operating Profit After Tax (1) 2005 2004 IBT&MI $1,458 $822 Reported Interest Expense 1,896 1,932 Income Tax Expense (2) (1,070) (1,203) Net Operating Profit After Tax 2,284 1,551 Effective Tax Rate (3) 32% 44% 2003 $644 1,984 (861) 1,767 33% ROIC (4) 11.3% 7.7% 9.0% Total Capital (5) December 2005 December 2004 December 2003 December 2002 Total Debt Minority Interest Stockholders Equity Debt Service Reserves and Other Deposits $17,706 1,611 1,649 (611) $18,588 1,305 956 (737) $19,638 995 (101) (617) $20,047 885 (855) (515) Total Capital $20,355 $20,112 $19,915 $19,562 Average Capital (6) $20,234 $20,014 $19,739 (1) Net operating profit after tax, a non-gaap financial measure, is defined as income before tax and minority interest expense (IBT&MI) plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at the effective tax rate. (2) Income tax expense calculated by multiplying the sum of IBT&MI and reported interest expense for the period by the effective tax rate for the period. (3) Effective tax rate calculated by dividing reported income tax expense for the period by IBT&MI for the period. (4) Return on invested capital (ROIC), a non-gaap financial measure, is defined as net operating profit after tax divided by average capital calculated over rolling 12 month basis. (5) Total capital, a non-gaap financial measure, is defined as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders equity less debt service reserves. (6) Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total capital over the last 12 months. 37