US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI January 11, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents ECRI-WLI & Economic Indexes 1 ECRI-WLI, S&P 0, & High Yield Spread 2 YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI 3-4 January 11, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
ECRI-WLI & Economic Indexes Figure 1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 12/29 Nov (1992=, 4-wa) Conference Board LEI (2010=) 30 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 30 Figure 2. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 12/29 (1992=, 4-wa) Nov Conference Board CEI (2004=) 40 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 40 Page 1 / January 11, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
ECRI-WLI, S&P 0, & High Yield Spread 145 Figure 3. S&P 0 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX 1/11 20 20 2400 2200 135 2000 10 10 125 0 115 105 S&P 0 Index ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Standard & Poor s and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 0 0 0 0 400-200 0 200 400 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 2000 2200 Figure 4. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) High-Yield Corporate Spread* (1992=) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1/11 155 145 135 125 115 105 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Page 2 / January 11, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
200 Figure 5. YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI 1 1 YRI Weekly Leading Index* (1992=) 12/2 145 135 125 115 105 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). -200 0 200 400 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 2000 2200 Figure 6. YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 12/31 High Yield Corporate Spread* YRI Weekly Leading Index** 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 1 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 3 / January 11, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
200 Figure 7. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI 200 1 12/2 1 1 1 YRI Weekly Leading Index* (1992=, 4-wa) Nov Conference Board LEI (2010=) 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 4 / January 11, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
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