www.lefflercom.com By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn TODAY S THOUGHT Friday, December 30, 2016 HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017 MONDAY, JAN 2 ND GRAINS OPEN AT 7 PM.TUESDAY, JAN 3 RD LIVESTOCK OPENS AT 8:30 AM Tues Jan 3 at 10:00 am Export Inspections Tues Jan 3 at 2:00 pm Grain Crushings Tom will be a guest discussing the Markets with Kelly Lenz on WIBW Ag Issues Tuesday, Jan. 3 rd at 6 am CATTLE and HOGS 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Net Change Closing Price 30-Year 30-Year Feb 17 LC -1.90 116.050s 118.50 115.28 68.05 116.35 109.67 137.75 97.80 172.75 51.70 Apr 17 LC -1.18 114.575s 116.43 113.78 62.12 114.45 109.07 132.25 97.25 171.10 52.60 Jan 17 FC -1.48 130.450s 132.93 129.60 58.91 130.69 124.30 150.15 110.65 239.30 55.70 Mar 17 FC -1.70 125.100s 127.90 124.35 53.50 126.40 120.76 142.52 109.07 237.80 55.92 Feb 17 LH 1.50 66.150s 66.35 64.28 68.54 64.83 57.06 70.00 47.52 99.92 26.07 The trading session for 2016 in the cattle complex was wild and exciting today as there were new highs made for the current move higher and then triple-digit losses on the close The December live cattle contract had a trading range of $4.70 today and close up 30-cents at $119.00 after making a high of $123.70. Today s close was up $22.90 from the October contract low and down $27.85 from the July 2015 contract high February Live Cattle went up $20.70 from the October contract low to Today s high March Feeder Cattle went up $18.82 from the October contract low to Today s high During the same time frame the Kansas Cash Cattle high of the week price went up $18.75 and the Choice Boxed Beef went up $20.78 and the Feeder Cattle Cash Index went up $11.25 On the weekly chart the live cattle needs to break above the Trend line off the 2014 and 2016 highs that comes in at $123.38, today the December contract trade almost to the line For the second straight session today the choice boxed beef exceed the $200 mark Sterling Beef Profit Tracker shows feedlot margins per head for the week ending Dec 23 rd at $134.68; week ago $68.45; month ago $52.10 and year ago ($412.71). Link to Full Data Weekly estimated cattle slaughter is 507,000 head, last week 572,000 and year ago 440,000 This Week the USDA s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 13,764 head at $116.00-$118.00 TX/OK/NM sold 3,695 head at $116.75-$118.00 NE sold 43,374 head at $116.00-$118.00 and $185.00-$190.00 IA/MN sold 24,475 head at $114.00-$119.00 and $185.00-$190.00 CO-sold 7,712 head at $117.00-$118.00 12/31/2016 Page 1 of 9
Last Week the USDA s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 25,760 head at $112.00-$116.00 (Wtd. Avg $115.45) TX/OK/NM sold 6,293 head at $113.00-$116.00 (Wtd. Avg $114.97) NE sold 37,182 head at $112.00-$116.00 (Wtd. Avg $115.23) and $180.00 IA/MN sold 29,798 head at $111.00-$115.00 and $177.00-$180.00 CO-sold 5,957 head at $115.00-$116.00 ************* ************* ************* ************* ************* The lean hog futures today traded mixed early in the session and ended the session with positive closes February lean hogs had its highest close since July 6 th. The lean hogs ended the week very well considering last Friday s negative hogs & pigs report and the negative trade last Friday and this Tuesday. Sterling Pork Profit Tracker shows farrow to finish margins per head for the week ending Dec 23 rd at ($7.91); week ago ($5.05); month ago ($33.11) and year ago ($22.28). Link to Full Data Weekly estimated hog slaughter is 2.081 million head, last week 2.149 and year ago 2.038 Tom Leffler February Live Cattle ended the year with an outside trading session with its highest trade since April 4 th and lowest of the past 6 sessions and closed negative today. Support is at $115.00 area $111.41 the 200-DMA $108.00 the 100-DMA $104.00 area $101.45 the November. Resistance is at $118.50 the December $120.00 area. $122.75 the March March Feeder Cattle ended the year with an outside trading session with its highest trade since September 1 st and lowest of the past 10 sessions and closed negative today. Support is at $125.00 area $121.93 the 100-DMA $120.76 the 50-DMA $120.00 the December $116.00 area. $112.40 the November $109.07 October and. Resistance is at $127.90 the December $128.57 the November $130.00 area. F.I. Cattle Kill Daily/wk. totals Box Beef Prices Net Change Box Beef Load Count Today 112K / 466K Choice 600-900 $203.33 - $0.14 Choice Cuts 31 Week Ago 113K / 569K Select 600-900 $192.84 - $1.05 Select Cuts 17 Year Ago 000K / 395K Choice/Select Spread $10.49 Trimmings 7 CME Cash Feeder Index $133.17 + $0.13 Coarse Grinds 13 F.I. Hog Kill Daily/ wk. totals Wholesale Pork Price Net Change Today 439K / 1.773M Cutout 185# $81.77 + $0.69 Week Ago 419K / 2.144M Primal Loin $80.54 + $2.69 Year Ago 000K / 1.666M Primal Ham $69.52 - $2.53 CME Hog Index $57.76 - $0.22 Primal Belly $115.24 + $0.40 February Lean Hogs today traded mixed, made a new high for the week and closed positive. Support is at $64.00 area $62.00 area $60.00 area $57.06 the 50-DMA $53.55 the December $52.22 the November $47.52 the October &. Resistance is at $66.57 the December $67.62 the July 12/31/2016 Page 2 of 9
CORN 14-10-Day 50-Day Futures Net Closing 30-Year 30-Year Day Change Price RSI Mar 17 C 2' 2 352' 0s 353' 0 347' 6 48.82 3.50'4 3.55'0 4.55'0 3.25'0 8.46'2 1.42'0 Jul 17 C 1' 2 364' 2s 365' 6 360' 6 46.69 3.64'2 3.69'1 4.94'6 3.40'2 8.24'0 1.54'0 The corn price traded on the plus side for most of the day session. Small gain but still a gain. By 9:00, most of the trade volume completed. CORRECTION: Yesterday s reported export sales number was incorrect. Because of the Monday holiday, the export sales report release on Friday this week. Corn sales amounted to 1.005 million metric tons. Mexico, Japan and Peru were the largest corn buyers for last week. Sorghum sales a totaled 30,700 metric tons for last week. Japan, Mexico and Indonesia were the buyers. Keep a close eye on these export sales as milo is moving at the rail car loader sites in Western Kansas. Larry Glenn March Corn traded mixed today and closed positive. Support is at $3.51 the 100-DMA $3.41 ¾ the December $3.30 area $3.25 the August and. Resistance is at the $3.55 the 50-DMA $3.64 ¾ the December $3.65 ¼ the November $3.69 the October $3.72 the 200-DMA $3.87 ½ the July SOYBEAN COMPLEX Net Change 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Closing 30-Year 30-Year Price Mar 17 S -6' 6 996' 4s 1010' 4 995' 0 41.98 10.17'0 10.21'5 11.35'4 8.69'0 17.28'2 4.15'6 Jul 17 S -8' 6 1004' 0s 1018' 4 1002' 4 42.15 10.31'7 10.34'2 11.19'0 8.77'0 16.79'4 4.01'4 Mar 17 SM -2.40 316.6s 321.60 313.50 48.33 316.70 317.80 389.80 269.90 518.00 120.30 Mar 17 BO -0.13 34.66s 35.02 34.62 34.11 35.65 36.06 38.62 28.10 71.26 14.10 Just like Thursday the soybean complex today started with the evening trading higher, but then turned negative and closed negative, despite the higher closes of the wheat and corn futures In 2016 on the weekly chart the Soybean Futures started the year at $8.83, peaked out in mid-june at $11.82 and ended the year at $9.96 ½ The 2017 November Soybeans had a March low of $8.71 ¼ and then a June high of $10.22 ¾ and then this fall a high of $10.43 in late-november and had a December double low of $9.80 ¾ The two main factors for the soybean complex to focus on is the South America weather and the upcoming January 12 th slew of USDA reports The grain and soybean complexes will resume trading next Monday evening, January 2 nd at 7:00 pm Tom Leffler 12/31/2016 Page 3 of 9
March Soybeans traded mixed and closed negative and near the low of the week today. Support is at $9.99 the 100-DMA $9.97 the December $9.83 ¾ the Nov. $9.52 the October $9.43 the September. Resistance is at $10.10 area $10.22 the 50-DMA $10.31 the 20- DMA $10.71 ¼ the December $10.74 the November March Soy Meal today traded mixed and closed negative with its lowest close of the week. Support is at $314.10 the 100-DMA $311.00 the December $308.40 the November $300.00 area $298.60 the October. Resistance is at $317.80 the 50-DMA $323.50 the 200-DMA $330.90 the December $331.70 the November March Soy Oil today traded mixed, made a new low for the week and had its lowest close since November 18 th. Support is at 34.57 the December 33.99 the 200-DMA. Resistance is at 34.95 the 100-DMA 35.50 area 36.06 the 50-DMA 38.62 the December & WHEAT 14- Day RSI 10-Day 50-Day Futures Net Closing 30-Year 30-Year Change Price Mar 17 KW 3' 2 418' 4s 419' 6 411' 6 52.58 4.12'6 4.21'6 6.85'4 3.99'4 13.70'0 2.39'6 Jul 17 KW 3' 0 441' 2s 442' 0 435' 2 52.24 4.35'6 4.45'0 6.22'0 4.23'4 13.00'0 2.30'0 Mar 17 W 3' 2 408' 0s 409' 2 403' 4 49.07 4.03'1 4.17'1 6.37'2 3.92'6 13.34'4 2.36'4 Jul 17 W 2' 4 434' 2s 435' 2 430' 6 48.98 4.29'5 4.44'4 6.10'0 4.20'0 12.72'6 2.30'0 The wheat price saw a two sided trading session in light volume. CORRECTION: Yesterday s reported export sales number was incorrect. Because of a lack of trading on Monday. The weekly export sales report released today. Wheat sales amounted to 582,000 metric tons. This was above the range of estimates. Major wheat buyers included China, Mexico, South Korea and Peru. The wheat price remains is a sideways price pattern but close to the bottom of the graph. Index fund rebalancing in the beginning of 2017 could give a boost to the wheat price. Kansas City Wheat and Chicago Wheat were the 2 nd and 3 rd worst performers in major commodity markets for 2016. These index funds like to buy historically low price commodities to start the year. The U. S. dollar was under pressure to end the year. The price trend remains up for the long term. Larry Glenn March KC Wheat traded mixed today and closed positive. Support is at $4.10 area $3.99 ½ the Dec. & $3.90 area. Resistance is at $4.22 the 50-DMA $4.29 the 100-DMA $4.39 ¾ the November $4.45 ¼ the October $4.65 the August March Chicago Wheat today closed positive after two-sided trading. Support is $4.00 area $3.92 ¾ the December & $3.80 area. Resistance is at $4.10 area $4.17 the 50-DMA $4.25 the 100-DMA $4.37 the November $4.45 ¾ the October $4.67 ¾ the August OTHER MARKETS: 12/31/2016 Page 4 of 9
Future Net Change Closing Price Net Change Closing Price Dow Jones -57.18 19762.60 19852.55 19718.67 Mar 17 Cotton 0.15 70.65s 71.96 70.43 Mar 17 S&P -8.90 2236.20s 2249.00 2228.80 Mar 17 Oats 2' 0 228' 4s 229' 4 226' 6 Mar Dollar Index -0.425 102.286s 102.630 101.950 Feb 17 Ethanol -0.012 1.555s 1.570 1.546 Mar 17 T-Bond 0' 24 150' 21s 150' 24 149' 23 Feb 17 Crude -0.05 53.72s 54.09 53.41 Feb 17 Gold -6.40 1151.7s 1164.30 1150.30 Feb 17 Heat 0.0082 1.7282s 1.7305 1.7099 CURRENT MAP YEAR AGO MAP TODAY'S CLOSING PRICES VERSUS WEEK AGO and VERSUS A YEAR AGO Close WEEK AGO YEAR AGO 30-Dec-2016 23-Dec-16 NET CHANGE 30-Dec-15 NET CHANGE Feb Live Cattle 116.05 116.30 (0.25) 136.70 (20.65) Mar Feeder Cattle 125.10 126.70 (1.60) 161.62 (36.52) Feb Lean Hogs 66.15 63.20 2.95 59.77 6.38 Mar Corn 3.5200 3.4575 0.0625 3.5900 (0.0700) Jul Corn 3.6425 3.6000 0.0425 3.7150 (0.0725) Dec Corn 3.8000 3.7625 0.0375 3.8325 (0.0325) Mar Soybeans 10.0400 9.9750 0.0650 8.7025 1.3375 Jul Soybeans 10.1900 10.1325 0.0575 8.8300 1.3600 Nov Soybeans 9.8925 9.8125 0.0800 8.8825 1.0100 Mar Soy Meal 316.60 311.60 5.00 267.60 49.00 Mar Soy Oil 34.66 34.88 (0.22) 29.67 4.99 Mar KC Wheat 4.1850 4.0625 0.1225 4.6550 (0.4700) Jul KC Wheat 4.4125 4.2900 0.1225 4.8600 (0.4475) Mar CH Wheat 4.0800 3.9350 0.1450 4.6975 (0.6175) Mar Cotton 70.65 69.87 0.78 63.97 6.68 Feb Crude Oil 53.72 53.02 0.70 36.60 17.12 Feb Heating Oil 1.7282 1.6807 0.0475 1.1110 0.6172 Mar Dollar Index 102.286 103.002 (0.716) 98.354 3.932 DOW 19763 19934 (171) 17604 2159 12/31/2016 Page 5 of 9
Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day // Red Line is 100-Day Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2017 FEBRUARY LIVE CATTLE 2017 MARCH FEEDER CATTLE 2017 MARCH CORN 2017 MARCH SOYBEANS 2017 MARCH KC WHEAT 2017 MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT 12/31/2016 Page 6 of 9
NEW CROP CHARTS for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat & Cotton Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day // Red Line is 100-Day Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2017 DECEMBER CORN 2017 NOVEMBER SOYBEANS 2017 JULY KC WHEAT 2017 DECEMBER COTTON 12/31/2016 Page 7 of 9
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