STATISTICS CANADA RELEASES 2016 GDP DATA On November 8, 2017 Statistics Canada released Provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for 2016 as well as revisions for 2011 to 2015. The PEI GDP at market prices in current dollars was valued at $6,321 million in 2016. The statistics show that the Prince Edward Island economy grew by 2.3 per cent in chained 2007 dollars, third highest among provinces behind only British Columbia and Ontario and the largest increase in 10 years. PEI is the only jurisdiction in the country to have continuous GDP growth since 2007. The revised data shows growth of 0.3 per cent in 2014 and 1.3 per cent in 2015. Table 2 shows PEI s expenditure based real GDP in chained 2007 dollars from 2012 to 2016. As Table 1 indicates, the national economy expanded by 1.4 per cent in chained 2007 dollars in 2016, following a 1.0 per cent increase in 2015. Yukon saw the highest growth among provinces and territories in 2016 with an increase of 8.0 per cent, followed by British Columbia at 3.5 per cent. The largest declines were in the Alberta and Saskatchewan, where real GDP contracted by 3.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. Table 1 REAL GDP GROWTH AND NOMINAL GDP CANADA, PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES Chained GDP Growth (%) Nominal 2016 GDP (Chained $ 2007) Province 2013 2014 2015 2016 $ millions Newfoundland and Labrador 5.2-0.9-1.7 1.9 31,112 Prince Edward Island 2.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 6,321 Nova Scotia -0.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 41,726 New Brunswick -0.3 0.1 2.4 1.2 34,224 Quebec 1.4 1.8 1.0 1.4 394,819 Ontario 1.5 2.7 2.9 2.6 794,835 Manitoba 2.8 2.1 1.3 2.2 67,863 Saskatchewan 6.3 2.1-1.0-0.5 75,261 Alberta 5.7 6.2-3.7-3.7 314,944 British Columbia 2.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 263,706 Yukon 1.0 0.9-7.8 8.0 2,800 Northwest Territories 2.9 4.9 1.3 0.8 4,739 Nunavut 10.5-1.4-0.5 1.8 2,443 Canada 2.5 2.9 1.0 1.4 2,035,506 1
Table 2 REAL GDP EXPENDITURE BASED, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND (chained 2007 dollars) in $ millions (except per capita) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Chained 2007 dollars Final consumption expenditure 5,205 5,236 5,269 5,324 5,472 Household final consumption expenditure 3,542 3,598 3,647 3,715 3,830 Goods 1,757 1,771 1,791 1,808 1,878 Services 1,785 1,827 1,856 1,907 1,952 Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure 68 73 74 75 77 General governments final consumption expenditure 1,599 1,572 1,557 1,545 1,578 Gross fixed capital formation 912 973 897 853 869 Business gross fixed capital formation 675 733 694 651 686 Residential structures 329 325 296 314 332 Non-residential structures, machinery and equipment 310 371 354 295 314 Intellectual property products 36 40 46 45 43 Non-profit institutions serving households' gross fixed capital formation 9 14 10 8 7 General governments gross fixed capital formation 230 229 197 195 180 Investment in inventories 60 50 26 11 46 Of which: business investment in inventories 59 51 27 11 46 Non-farm 54 54 23 3 52 Farm 6 0 5 5-1 Exports of goods and services 2,222 2,303 2,359 2,335 2,388 Exports to other countries 893 964 1,020 1,037 1,066 Exports to other provinces 1,336 1,347 1,347 1,303 1,327 Less: imports of goods and services 3,483 3,554 3,533 3,436 3,572 Imports from other countries 1,378 1,309 1,265 1,163 1,173 Imports from other provinces 2,131 2,254 2,270 2,270 2,396 Statistical discrepancy -4 4 1-3 2 Gross domestic product at market prices 4,941 5,041 5,054 5,118 5,237 Final domestic demand 6,121 6,211 6,171 6,184 6,350 Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product (%) 1.0 2.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (chained 2007 $) 34,057 34,718 34,637 34,866 35,037 Change in Real GDP Per Capita (%) 0.2 1.9 (0.2) 0.7 0.5 Nominal GDP Per Capita ($) 38,400 39,622 40,085 41,399 42,289 Change in Nominal GDP Per Capita (%) 2.0 3.2 1.2 3.3 2.1 Table 3 shows contributions to change in real GDP for 2016. Final consumption expenditure, the largest component of GDP, contributed 2.8 percentage points to the growth of GDP, while gross fixed capital formation contributed 0.3 percentage points. Investment in inventories contributed 0.6 percentage points to the growth of GDP in 2016. An increase of exports of goods and services added 1.1 percentage points while imports of goods and services 1 increased at a greater rate, subtracting 2.6 percentage points from GDP growth, for a total net deduction of 1.5 percentage points for international and interprovincial trade. 1 Imports are a deduction from GDP. A reduction in imports results in a positive contribution to change. 2
Table 3 REAL GDP, EXPENDITURE BASED, CONTRIBUTIONS TO PERCENT CHANGE 2 PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, 2016 Gross domestic product (GDP) 2.3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 0.3 Final consumption expenditure 2.8 Business gross fixed capital formation 0.6 Durable goods 0.8 Residential structures 0.3 Semi-durable goods 0.3 Non-residential structures 0.7 Non-durable goods 0.3 Machinery and equipment -0.3 Services 0.8 Intellectual property products 0.0 Non-profit institutions final consumption expenditure 0.0 Non-profit institutions gross fixed capital formation 0.0 General governments final consumption expenditure 0.7 General governments gross fixed capital formation -0.3 Exports of goods and services 1.1 Investment in inventories 0.6 Exports to other countries 0.6 Non-farm 0.8 Exports to other provinces 0.5 Farm -0.2 Deduct: Imports of goods and services 2.6 Statistical discrepancy 0.1 Imports from other countries 0.2 Imports from other provinces 2.4 Final domestic demand 3.2 Imports are a deduction from GDP. A reduction in imports results in a positive contribution to change. Diagram 1 illustrates provincial economic growth from 2012 to 2016 in chained 2007 dollars. Diagram 1 per cent 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 Annual Real GDP Growth 2012-2016 Prince Edward Island 2.0 0.3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.3 2.3 Source: Statistics Canada. Table 384-0038 - Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual (dollars unless otherwise noted); November 8, 2017 2 Contributions to percent change are presented as percentage points. 3
GDP BY INDUSTRY Statistics Canada also released revised Provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry data for 2016. The P.E.I. GDP for all industries in chained 2007 dollars was valued at $4,733 million in 2016, an increase of 2.2 per cent over 2015. This is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the preliminary estimates. By this measure, the P.E.I. economy grew by 1.5 per cent in 2015 and by 0.3 per cent in 2014. These are revisions from the preliminary estimates, which showed 1.3 per cent growth in 2015 and 1.4 per cent growth in 2014. Diagram 2 shows GDP by Industry growth for PEI from 2007 to 2016. Diagram 2 GDP By Industry Growth All Industries, PEI 2007-2016 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 per cent 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Statistics Canada. Table 379-0030 - Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), provinces and territories, annual (dollars); November 8, 2017 4
Table 4 shows GDP By Industry growth by province and territory since 2012. Table 4 GDP BY INDUSTRY GROWTH (%), CHAINED 2007 DOLLARS, PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES PROVINCE 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Newfoundland and Labrador -4.5 5.0-1.1-1.5 1.7 Prince Edward Island 0.9 1.9 0.3 1.5 2.2 Nova Scotia -1.0-0.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 New Brunswick -1.2-0.4 0.1 2.3 1.2 Quebec 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.5 Ontario 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.8 2.6 Manitoba 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.4 2.1 Saskatchewan 1.8 6.4 1.9-1.2-0.4 Alberta 4.0 5.8 5.9-3.9-3.6 British Columbia 2.6 2.4 3.6 3.3 3.6 Yukon 4.0 1.5 0.6-7.9 8.3 Northwest territories -0.6 2.8 4.7 1.2 0.8 Nunavut 2.5 10.1-1.3-0.6 1.9 Prince Edward Island Goods Goods production increased 1.8 per cent, led by a 2.6 per cent increase in manufacturing and a 6.0 per cent increase in construction. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting declined for the second time in three years, contracting by 2.7 per cent in 2016. The increase in manufacturing was due mainly to a 9.3 per cent increase in aerospace product and parts manufacturing and a 1.9 per cent increase in food manufacturing. Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing increased by 3.6 per cent, while seafood product preparation and packaging declined by 0.5 per cent. Chemical manufacturing declined by 1.3 per cent. After a decline of 3.4 per cent in 2015, construction rebounded in 2016, increasing by 6.0 per cent. This was mainly due to increases in non-residential building construction (11.7 per cent) and engineering construction (25.1 per cent). More specifically, electric power engineering construction increased by 113.5 per cent due to the Northumberland Strait electric cable project. Residential construction increased by 2.1 per cent, the second consecutive year of growth for that sector. The decline in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting was due to a 14.8 per cent decline in fishing. Animal production saw an increase of 3.7 per cent, crop production increased by 3.6 per cent, and aquaculture increased by 8.4 per cent in 2016. Utilities saw an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2016. 5
Services In 2016 the service sector increased by 2.3 per cent, following a 1.5 per cent increase in 2015. The largest increases occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (3.1 per cent), public administration (2.4 per cent), retail trade (3.9 per cent), health care and social assistance (2.6 per cent), and finance and insurance (3.3 per cent). Declines occurred in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (-2.8 per cent), management of companies and enterprises (-2.9 per cent), arts, entertainment and recreation (-0.7 per cent), and wholesale trade (-0.3 per cent). Table 2 shows industry detail of the provincial economy from 2012 to 2016. TABLE 5 P.E.I. GDP BY INDUSTRY GROWTH (constant chained 2007 dollars) INDUSTRY 2013 2014 % Growth 2015 % Growth 2016 % Growth Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 283.7 281.4-0.8 287.3 2.1 279.6-2.7 Crop and Animal Production 182.5 182.3-0.1 180.7-0.9 188.8 4.5 Forestry & Logging 5.1 4.8-5.9 5.5 14.6 6.0 9.1 Fishing, Hunting & Trapping 81.1 77.7-4.2 83.3 7.2 71.0-14.8 Mining 1.7 1.5-11.8 1.5 0.0 1.6 6.7 Utilities 84.0 89.3 6.3 91.8 2.8 93.7 2.1 Construction 264.4 216.5-18.1 209.1-3.4 221.7 6.0 Residential Construction 94.3 78.3-17.0 81.5 4.1 83.2 2.1 Non-Residential Building Construction 48.7 45.3-7.0 37.5-17.2 41.9 11.7 Engineering Construction 58.6 26.5-54.8 21.9-17.4 27.4 25.1 Manufacturing 422.9 467.9 10.6 483.0 3.2 495.7 2.6 Food Manufacturing 235.3 280.1 19.0 268.4-4.2 273.6 1.9 Chemical Manufacturing 52.8 58.7 11.2 69.4 18.2 68.5-1.3 TOTAL GOODS 1,048.8 1,042.4-0.6 1,057.0 1.4 1,076.5 1.8 Wholesale Trade 111.2 112.2 0.9 114.0 1.6 113.7-0.3 Retail Trade 323.0 324.3 0.4 333.5 2.8 346.5 3.9 Transportation & Warehousing 116.9 123.9 6.0 127.1 2.6 130.1 2.4 Information & Culture 130.5 133.2 2.1 132.1-0.8 133.2 0.8 Finance and Insurance 242.4 243.9 0.6 250.6 2.7 258.9 3.3 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 635.4 649.6 2.2 668.2 2.9 688.8 3.1 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 113.6 116.1 2.2 127.3 9.6 133.4 4.8 Management of Companies and Enterprises 33.5 31.0-7.5 31.0 0.0 30.1-2.9 Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services 132.8 133.0 0.2 129.6-2.6 126.0-2.8 Educational Services 334.4 332.6-0.5 336.8 1.3 340.2 1.0 Health Care and Social Assistance 419.3 423.9 1.1 427.8 0.9 438.9 2.6 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 50.4 51.3 1.8 53.9 5.1 53.5-0.7 Accommodation and Food Services 139.6 144.0 3.2 146.1 1.5 150.6 3.1 Other Services (except Public Administration) 102.9 104.3 1.4 102.6-1.6 105.4 2.7 Public Administration 617.8 602.1-2.5 600.9-0.2 615.6 2.4 TOTAL SERVICES 3,498.6 3,519.4 0.6 3,573.8 1.5 3,655.7 2.3 ALL INDUSTRIES 4,548.4 4,563.0 0.3 4,632.0 1.5 4,733.4 2.2 * millions, chained 2007 dollars Note: the sum of the chained values for each component of an aggregate does not equal the chained value of the aggregate. Sources: Statistics Canada. Table 379-0030 - Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), provinces and territories, annual (dollars) Table 384-0038 - Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual (dollars unless otherwise noted) For more information contact Colin Mosley, Economist Statistics, at 1-902-368-4035, or by e-mail at: cdmosley@gov.pe.ca 6