Energy J. Marshall Adkins, (713) 789-3551, Marshall.Adkins@RaymondJames.com John Freeman, CFA, (713) 278-5251, John.Freeman@RaymondJames.com James M. Rollyson, (713) 278-5254, Jim.Rollyson@RaymondJames.com Edward Rowe, Sr. Res. Assoc., (713) 278-5294, Edward.Rowe@RaymondJames.com David P. Feaster, Jr., CFA, Sr. Res. Assoc., (713) 278-5248, David.Feaster@RaymondJames.com Published by Raymond James & Associates November 1, 2013 Industry Brief Energy: Industry Overview Raymond James Natural Gas Industry Update The EIA reported an injection of 38 Bcf, below the Raymond James forecast of an injection of 42 Bcf and above the consensus estimate of an injection of 34 Bcf. Gas-in-storage now totals 3,779 Bcf, and the y/y storage deficit of 92 Bcf increased by 28 to a deficit of 120 Bcf. Front-month gas prices were trading down $0.04 to $3.58 immediately following the release. This Week's Injection (Bcf) Actual vs. Expected 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 Actual RJ Est. Consensus Est. Source: U.S Energy Information Administration (October 2013), Bloomberg, Raymond James Short-Term Signal Long-Term Signal Comparison vs. Last Year Market Reaction Market was 1.0 Bcf/d looser versus last year Front month contract Bearish Neutral (adjusted for weather) was down $0.04 to $3.58 Excluding weather-related demand, there was 1.0 Bcf/d of additional natural gas added to storage this week compared to last year, and we have averaged 1.6 Bcf/d looser over the past four weeks. As we head into the winter season, we expect weather to have a significant influence on pricing in the near-term. With gas production reaching record highs last week, warmer weather forecasts for the next few weeks could keep pricing relatively soft. Meanwhile the y/y deficit ended the summer injection season at 120 Bcf, but we believe that gas prices must remain elevated (relative to last year) in order to spur enough gas to coal switching and spur on additional production. August EIA-914 - Bearish - Natural gas production continues to Weather-Adjusted YOY Gas Supply/Demand Change climb higher +0.2 Bcf/d sequentially and +2.28 Bcf/d y/y. The EIA 8.0 published the natural gas production data for August and lower-48 6.0 supply (74.8 Bcf/d of gross production) showed a sequential 4.0 increase of 0.2 Bcf/d and 2.28 Bcf/d higher y/y, which suggests that 2.0 supply is not rolling over anytime soon. The Marcellus continues to 0.0 climb as Other States reported +0.64 Bcf/d sequential increase on (2.0) new wells coming online, followed by Texas +0.14 Bcf/d on new (4.0) Eagle Ford Shale and Permian wells. Meanwhile, Louisiana reported (6.0) a decline of 0.33 Bcf/d on maintenance issues and normal decline, (8.0) while the Gulf of Mexico was down 0.20 Bcf/d on platform/pipeline maintenance. Bottom line: Bearish - August data arrives relatively in Looser/Tighter 4 WK MA line with the Raymond James estimate of +0.3 Bcf/d sequential Source: Energy Information Administration (October 2013) increase and 2.31 Bcf/d y/y increase, but most importantly supports our thesis that gas production will continue to offset legacy declines. Our model suggests that gas production will average +1.9 Bcf/d y/y through the end of the year and close to another 2+ Bcf/d next year on easing infrastructure constraints. LOOSER TIGHTER Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 9 and Analyst Certification on page 9. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863
Next Week s Preliminary Forecast Is for an Injection of 46 Bcf Next week, the NOAA is forecasting 95 TDDs (9 CDDs and 86 HDDs, 7% below normal, and 3% below last year). When compared to last year, the weeks of October 11th - November 8th appear to be most applicable. These weeks averaged the equivalent of 93 TDDs and an injection of 37 Bcf. After adjusting for weather, we arrive at a y/y comparable injection of 35 Bcf. We expect the market to run 1.5 Bcf/d looser on a y/y basis for the week. Thus, our official forecast for next Thursday is for an injection of 46 Bcf. If our forecast is correct, the y/y storage deficit of 120 Bcf will increase by 26 to a deficit of 146 Bcf. US Storage This Last Last Y-Y Consensus 10/25/2013 Week Week Year Change Expectations Normal Weekly Change (Bcf) 38 87 66 (28) Total Storage (Bcf) 3,779 3,741 3,899 (120) 34 11/2/2013 10/26/2013 Degree Days 110 71 75 Front Month Gas Futures ($/MMBtu) $3.58 $3.75 $3.70 96 105 Source: U.S Energy Information Administration (October 2013), NOAA, Bloomberg U.S. Storage The EIA reported that natural gas in U.S. storage facilities increased by 38 Bcf during the week ending October 25. Working gas in storage now totals 3,779 Bcf versus 3,899 Bcf in storage last year. The y/y storage deficit of 92 Bcf increased by 28 to a deficit of 120 Bcf. 150 EIA Natural Gas Storage Weekly Volume Changes 100 50 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (October 2013) 4,000 EIA Natural Gas Storage Volumes 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec 5-Yr Avg 2012 2013 Source: Energy Information Administration (October 2013) International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 2
2013 Natural Gas Summer Injection Schedule (Bcf) 2013 2012 Normal 2013 2012 Normal Bcf Change YOY Bcf/d Chg. Date Inj Inj Avg TDD TDD TDD Inj vs. 2012 AbsoluteWeather Adj 3/29/2013 (94) 42 9 170 97 116 (136) -19.4 1.4 4/5/2013 (14) 6 32 130 99 102 (20) -3 1.9 4/12/2013 31 23 51 95 103 86 8 1 0.1 4/19/2013 30 47 66 103 64 77 (17) -2-0.6 4/26/2013 43 28 71 108 89 74 15 2-1.0 5/3/2013 88 30 83 62 68 62 58 8-0.6 5/10/2013 99 61 88 57 54 62 38 5 2.1 5/17/2013 89 77 95 57 38 57 12 2-1.7 5/24/2013 88 71 99 54 54 57 17 2-0.1 5/31/2013 111 62 88 64 64 61 49 7-1.0 6/7/2013 95 67 85 60 50 62 28 4 1.4 6/14/2013 91 62 88 58 58 62 29 4-0.4 6/21/2013 95 57 82 55 73 70 38 5 1.4 6/28/2013 72 39 86 77 78 72 33 5 2.0 7/5/2013 82 33 72 79 103 82 49 7 2.7 7/12/2013 58 28 54 89 86 84 30 4 2.9 7/19/2013 41 26 53 87 91 83 15 2 4.4 7/26/2013 59 28 45 85 93 86 31 4 1.4 8/2/2013 96 24 46 65 91 81 72 10 2.1 8/9/2013 65 20 51 70 86 79 45 6 2.0 8/16/2013 57 47 61 66 75 74 10 1 0.6 8/23/2013 67 66 65 65 62 67 1 0 1.0 8/30/2013 58 28 74 80 74 61 30 4 3.3 9/6/2013 65 27 75 58 78 58 38 5 2.3 9/13/2013 46 67 72 72 49 55 (21) -3 4.3 9/20/2013 87 80 76 64 50 57 7 1 2.0 9/27/2013 101 77 75 53 62 63 24 3 4.6 10/4/2013 90 72 73 46 63 68 18 3 1.0 10/11/2013 77 51 58 58 98 81 26 4 2.4 10/18/2013 87 67 47 61 68 91 20 3 2.6 10/25/2013 38 65 43 99 75 97 (27) (4) 2.4 Current Storage 3779 3899 Remaining Injections 0 0 Ending Storage 3779 3899 * Source: RJ&A Estimates, Energy Information Administration (October 2013) NOAA Degree Days The NOAA reported that there were 99 TDDs or total degree days (7 CDDs or cooling degree days and 92 HDDs or heating degree days) during the week ending October 25. This was 13% above normal level and 39% above last year s levels. Increased power generation and above normal weather has whittled the y/y storage deficit down from the peak of 807 Bcf in mid-april to the current 120 Bcf deficit. While coal has continued to gain market share from gas, the above normal weather season-to-date has allowed both coal and gas to win, though during the prior months natural gas prices have pulled back allowing gas to regain market share. This combined with slowing natural gas production has led to bullish tailwinds for natural gas prices. 2013 Injection Season Cumulative TDD Variance vs. Normal 200 11/2 Forecast 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 30-Mar 27-Apr 25-May 22-Jun 20-Jul 17-Aug 14-Sep 12-Oct Source: NOAA TDD Variance Cumulative % Variance *Utilize Saturday degree days to forecast Friday injection 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Cumulative variance, % Next week s NOAA (November 2) forecast is for 88 TDDs (10 CDDs and 78 HDDs). This number is 17% below the norm and 17% below last year s TDDs. So far into this injection season we have had 2,351 TDDs, 1.7% above last year s 2,312 TDDs through the same period and 4.0% above the norm of 2,261 TDDs. With weather forecasts calling for less cooling demand in the coming weeks, the y/y deficit should continue to decrease. Thus we believe gas prices will range roughly between $3.50-4.00/Mcf for most of the year. Meanwhile, we maintain our contrarian view on gas supply and expect the next few months to provide a clearer picture on the resiliency of natural gas production and push down the price curve for 2014. Summer Total Degree Days 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Summer Total Degree Days - 2012, 2013 and Normal 11/2 Forecast 0 30-Mar 4-May 8-Jun 13-Jul 17-Aug 21-Sep 26-Oct 2013 2012 Normal Source: NOAA, Raymond James Research *Utilize Saturday degree days to forecast Friday injection International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 3
Fuel-Switching Typically, we would expect natural gas to trade around its 6:1 energy equivalent ratio with oil. In reality, due to the fact that natural gas is not a truly global commodity (i.e., it can t easily be exported), we don t expect it to trade in parity with oil over the next few years. Additionally, due to limited amounts of fuel switching capacity, we don t anticipate that the two fuels will be brought back into balance. The relative attractiveness of one fuel over the other (in the current case natural gas) is likely to remain for the foreseeable future. For the week ended October 25, the residual fuel oil price spread (vs. natural gas) at the Houston Ship Channel was $10.80/MMBtu in favor of natural gas. Furthermore, factoring in $0.75/MMBtu for the added costs of burning residue (pollution, transportation, etc.), the spread increased to $11.55MMBtu in favor of natural gas. This week's EIA/DOE report suggests that consumers burned 86,000 Bpd (or 0.53 Bcf/d on Bcf/d basis) less residual fuel oil versus last year. On a weekly basis, residual demand decreased by 10,000 Bpd (or 0.06 Bcf/d on a Bcf/day basis) with the prior week. $2.00 $0.00 ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) ($8.00) ($10.00) ($12.00) ($14.00) ($16.00) ($18.00) Y/Y Residual Fuel Oil Demand Growth (Fuel Switching) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (3.0) (3.5) For distillates, the price spread (vs. natural gas) at the Houston Ship Channel was running $16.55/MMBtu in favor of natural gas on a pure spot basis. When adjusted for the added costs of burning heating oil versus gas (assuming $0.50/MMBtu), the spread widens to $17.05/MMBtu in favor of natural gas. The weekly EIA/DOE report suggests that consumers burned 613,000 Bpd (or 3.48 Bcf/day equivalents) more distillates last week from a year ago. On a weekly basis, distillate demand increased by 826,000 Bpd (or 4.69 Bcf/day) from the prior week. It is important to note that weekly distillate demand includes not only heating oil, but also diesel fuel, which is mainly used for transportation. Hence, the weekly distillate trends do not always track closely with heating oil price spreads on a week-to-week basis. RFO Y/Y Demand Change NG vs. RFO Price Spread * Source Bloomberg & Raymond James Est. ($2.00) ($4.00) ($6.00) ($8.00) ($10.00) ($12.00) ($14.00) ($16.00) ($18.00) ($20.00) ($22.00) Houston Ship Channel Comparative Fuel Prices * Adds $0.50/MMBtu for incremental pollution, transportation and maintenance costs Y/Y Distillate Demand Growth (Fuel Switching) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (5.0) (6.0) To try to smooth out the inconsistencies of the weekly data, we look more to the four-week moving averages to get a better run-rate comparison. This brings the four-week moving average for oil product demand growth (for both oil products combined) in line with the similar period last year. Distillate Y/Y Demand Change NG vs. HO Price Spreads * Source Bloomberg & Raymond James Est. Houston Ship Channel Comparative Fuel Prices * Adds $0.50/MMBtu for incremental pollution, transportation and maintenance costs International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 4
Liquids stripping: NGL composite barrel pricing softens on weaker crude prices. Brent and WTI crude prices both ended the week down ~3% leading to weakness on the heavier end of the NGL barrel. The composite NGL barrel followed suit ending the week down ~3% at $0.95/gal. While, natural gas prices ended the week down 1%, frac spreads compressed, but are still well above the past lows. Bottom line: While we estimate that NGLs, especially the heavier end could face some pressure going forward, the crude-togas ratio should remain wide enough to incentivize producers to seek liquid rich plays and provide sufficient margins for midstream providers. Our calculation for processing margins sum each NGL component (converted to $/MMBtu for equivalency purposes and appropriately weighted by content in the natural gas stream), which is then subtracted from the weekly natural gas price (in $/MMBtu). Thus, the resulting variance essentially details the value of the NGLs (i.e., processing margin value) vs. the price of natural gas. The Gulf Coast fractionation spread between Henry Hub natural gas prices and Mont Belvieu NGL prices as tracked by Bloomberg ended the week down ~2.5% compared to the prior week, ending at $6.99/MMBtu. Observing the second chart below, frac spreads have declined since the start of last year on weaker ethane and propane prices; however, more recently the heavier end of the NGL barrel has started to rebound providing support to frac spreads. With that said, we believe frac spreads should remain relatively subdued through the end of 2013 and into 2014, but believe NGL production will continue to accelerate on additional gas processing facilities and fractionation facilities that will arrive online in 2013/14. $90.00 Composite NGL Prices (Weekly) $16 Gulf Coast Frac Spreads (Henry Hub - Mont Belvieu) $80.00 $14 Composite NGL Price ($/bbl) $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 Margin ($ per MMbtu) $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $20.00 $0 $10.00 $0.00 -$2 -$4 Upper Range Frac Spread Historical Median Priced: 10/25/13 Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Research Priced: 10/25/13 Source: Bloomberg *RJ Estimated NGL Barrel Composition: Ethane: 42%; Propane: 28%; N-Butane: 7%; Iso-Butane: 9%; Natural Gasoline: 14% International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 5
Natural Gas and Component Natural Gas Liquids Prices (Since 2008) Price ($/MMBtu) $30.00 $27.50 $25.00 $22.50 $20.00 $17.50 $15.00 $12.50 $10.00 $7.50 $5.00 $2.50 $0.00 Natural Gasoline Isobutane Normal Butane Propane Ethane Natural Gas Priced: 10/25/2013 Source: Raymond James Research, Bloomberg EIA August NGL production shows healthy 107 Mbpd growth (4%) sequentially or 286 Mbpd (~12%) y/y. The EIA reported total gas processing NGL production of 2.66 MMbpd, up ~4% m/m and up ~12% y/y as a number gas processing facilities out of the Midcontinent and DJ Basin arrived online 3Q. Easing infrastructure constraints are leading to the acceleration in NGL production and should continue through 2013 and into 2014. Meanwhile, based on total ethane extraction capabilities, we estimate of 250-300 Mbpd of ethane rejection which continues to add incremental gas to the system. Of note, an interesting data point is ethane production out of PADD II increased substantially (41 Mbpd) while ethane and natural gas prices in the region were trading close to parity (which could imply that producers are willing to take the negative margin on ethane because they do not want to lose propane extraction). With that said, we should see NGL production accelerate even further for the U.S. and limit upside to prices. Bottom line: Given the attractive economics due to the heavier end of the NGL barrel, producers continue to shift toward liquid-rich plays; however ethane prices continue to trend near low levels and we should expect to see sustained ethane rejection based on processing economics for quite some time. 2,900 U.S. NGL Production 2,700 NGL Production (Mbpd) 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 RJ Forecast Source: EIA Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report Monthly data as of August 2013 International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 6
U.S. LNG imports to experience structural decline. It wasn t that long ago - as recently as 2008 - that people were debating whether the U.S. could build enough LNG import infrastructure to fulfill the needs of an undersupplied natural gas market. Now, of course, the problem is the polar opposite: what to do with North America s massive and persistent glut of natural gas. As shown in the chart to the right, LNG imports have trended downward for most of the year and will eventually swing to the negative (i.e., we will start to net export LNG once the already-announced projects come online). We believe this trend will continue as domestic production will essentially back out LNG imports. While there are over 20 Bcf/d of proposed LNG export projects on the drawing board here in North America, the question remains: how much capacity will actually be built? TOTAL LNG IMPORTS (Bcf/day) Month 2012 2013 YOY Change January 0.31 0.44 0.12 40% February 0.63 0.37-0.26-42% March 0.54 0.27-0.27-50% April 0.25 0.17-0.08-34% May 0.52 0.18-0.34-65% June 0.28 0.45 0.18 64% July 0.50 0.26-0.24-48% August 0.62 0.31-0.31-50% September 0.38 0.54 0.16 42% October (E) 0.22 0.18-0.04-16% November (E) 0.47 0.36-0.11-24% December (E) 0.38 0.33-0.05-13% Last wk 7.76 2.80-4.96-64% 4 wk MA 0.37 0.20-0.17-45% Source: Waterborne LNG World Landed Prices - For the week ended October 25, LNG prices in North America were basically flat at $8.25 per MMbtu, the highest level since May. Please note that as of April 25, 2013, LNG prices at the Altamira terminal in Mexico were revised upward to better reflect spot market exposure, resulting in the spike in North American LNG prices. LNG prices in Europe ended the week up 1% at $11.35 per MMbtu. LNG prices in Asia were also up to $16.32 per MMbtu (+2%). Structurally, LNG prices in Asia remain above their European and American counterparts due to a combination of growing demand and limited domestic supply. We anticipate that this spread between North American and Asia/Europe prices will persist for a lengthy period of time. LNG Charter Rates - For the week ended October 25, East of Suez LNG charters fell $1,000 per day to $93,000. West of Suez LNG charters were also down from the previous week ($2,000 per day to $96,000). As reflected in the chart on the right, spot LNG charter rates have declined considerably compared to a year ago as a wave of newbuilds were ordered during the 2011 Japanese earthquake/tsunami. We believe that these lower charter rates will persist until new liquefaction projects start to come online. This has led to steep backwardation within the forward curve for LNG charters with short-tomid-term fixtures receiving day-rates around $75,000-85,000 per day. However, we believe that spot charter rates will remain robust around the $90,000-100,000 per day range as there is a shortage of tankers available on a short-term basis. $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Asia Europe N. America World Landed Prices Source: Raymond James research, Waterborne LNG Dollar per day, in thousands $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Average LNG Charter Rates Source: Waterborne LNG, Raymond James research International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 7
Production remains robust; warmer weather ahead? Dry gas production continues to rise, averaging more than 65 Bcf/d last week and 66.1 Bcf/d so far this week. With relatively warmer weather expected in the coming weeks, pricing could remain relatively soft for time being. This week s storage number came in higher than consensus, pushing the y/y deficit to 120 Bcf as the summer injection season comes to an end. In the short term, we expect weather to have a significant influence on pricing as we transition into the winter season and heating demand picks up. With gas prices remaining relatively high, we expect coal switching to persist, averaging 2.4 Bcf/d for the full year. As we look out to 2014, our view is that U.S. gas supply growth will outpace demand growth at prices north of $4/Mcf. Strong U.S. associated gas supply growth combined with tough weather comps leaves us with expectations for essentially full storage of 3.9 Tcf exiting October 2014 with $3.75 average gas prices. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 8
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Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. Raymond James Ltd. (Canada) definitions Strong Buy (SB1) The stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 15% and outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next six months. Outperform (MO2) The stock is expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) The stock is expected to perform generally in line with the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months and is potentially a source of funds for more highly rated securities. Underperform (MU4) The stock is expected to underperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index or its sector over the next six to twelve months and should be sold. Raymond James Latin American rating definitions Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 25.0% over the next twelve months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of between 15.0% and 25.0% over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform in line with the underlying country index. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the underlying country index. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. Raymond James Euro Equities, SAS rating definitions Strong Buy (1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 6 to 12 months. Outperform (2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Market Perform (3) Expected to perform generally in line with the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Underperform (4) Expected to underperform the Stoxx 600 or its sector over the next 6 to 12 months. Suspended (S) The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and target price are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. In transacting in any security, investors should be aware that other securities in the Raymond James research coverage universe might carry a higher or lower rating. Investors should feel free to contact their Financial Advisor to discuss the merits of other available investments. Rating Distributions Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution RJA RJL RJ LatAm RJEE RJA RJL RJ LatAm RJEE Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 50% 58% 43% 48% 24% 33% 0% 0% Market Perform (Hold) 44% 42% 57% 33% 9% 23% 0% 0% Underperform (Sell) 7% 1% 0% 19% 1% 0% 0% 0% Suitability Categories (SR) Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater stability of principal. Growth (G) Low to average risk equities with sound financials, more consistent earnings growth, at least a small dividend, and the potential for long-term price appreciation. Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets. High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal. Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal. Raymond James Relationship Disclosures International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 800-248-8863 10
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Risk Factors General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective valuation; or (4) External factors that affect the U.S. economy, interest rates, the U.S. dollar or major segments of the economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects. International investments involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. 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