P/E EV/EBITDA P/B ROE

Similar documents
Fila Korea (081660) Widespread growth potential

FILA Korea (081660) Company Note. NDR takeaways: Collective efforts fuel brand power. BUY (Maintain)

Duksan Hi-Metal (077360)

LG Innotek (011070) Company Note. Concerns unjustified, 3Q14 results to beat consensus. BUY (Maintain)

Wonik Materials (104830)

YG Entertainment (122870)

S-Oil (010950) Healthier revenue structure already reflected in valuations

Korea Zinc (010130) Company Note. 1Q12 preview: Not over until it s over. BUY (Maintain)

Silicon Works (108320)

Korean Air (003490) Company Note. Timely relisting. Hold (Maintain)

Cosmax (192820) Company Note. Smooth transition, third growth phase. BUY (Initiate)

Vieworks (100120) Earnings Review. Competitiveness to sustain growth. BUY (Maintain)

Daewoong Pharmaceutical (069620)

Halla Visteon Climate Control (018880)

YG Entertainment (122870)

Hyundai Steel (004020)

FILA Korea Earnings Release. Investor Relations 3Q 2015

Daewoo E&C (047040) Company Note. Asia conference feedback; Contrarian thinking

Dongsung Finetec (033500)

Silicon Works (108320)

Wonik Materials (104830)

CrucialTec (114120) BUY (Maintain) Company Note. Robust growth to continue. TP: W70,000 (Up)

Cheil Industries (028260)

Hyundai Wia (011210)

SM Entertainment (041510)

Lotte Confectionery (004990)

PER EV/EBITDA PBR ROE

Hansae (105630) Make in SEA, sell in adv. markets. BUY (Initiate) May 20, 2014

LG International ( KS)

Earnings to stay on growth trajectory

Hankook Tire ( KS)

GS E&C (006360) Earnings Review

Silicon Works ( KS)

SK Innovation (096770)

Investor Relations 3Q 2016

Daewoong Pharmaceutical ( KS)

Kolon Industries (120110)

CJ CGV (079160) Company Note. China site visit: Rapid growth confirmed. BUY (Maintain)

Investor Relations FY 2018

Hyundai Wia (IPO) Another Mobis is coming BUY (Initiate)

Investor Relations 3Q 2018

Hanssem (009240) Market consolidation begins

GS E&C (006360) April blossom. BUY (Maintain) April 20, 2012

LG Innotek ( KS)

Simmtech ( KS)

Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620)

PER EV/EBITDA PBR ROE

Hyundai E&C (000720)

IntroMedic (150840) Not rated. Small-cap Company Note June 10, Promising capsule endoscope maker

Lotte Hi-Mart ( KS)

Investor Relations 3Q 2017

Dong-A Pharmaceutical ( KS)

i-sens (099190) Not rated Small-cap Company Note July 3, 2014 Growth potential stemming from a high-quality customer base

SK Telecom ( KS)

Hugel (145020) Earnings Review. Record earnings but concerns over botulinum toxin strain origins

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Coway (021240) Company In-depth Household products. Global presence revs up with water and air

SUMMARY FINANCIAL DATA

New merchandise to prop up results

DRAGON CROWN GROUP HOLDINGS (935.HK) 1H 2013 Review: Bucked the Trend. Company Profile. 1-Yr Price Performance vs. HSI. Basic Share Information

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Studio Dragon ( KQ) Drama quality beginning to shine

Hyundai E&C ( KS)

SM Entertainment ( KQ)

Hotel Shilla ( KS)

Goodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary

Hankook Tire ( KS)

LG Innotek ( KS)

Retail OVERWEIGHT/OVERWEIGHT

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Lotte Himart ( KS)

KC Tech ( KS) CMP slurry market share to increase. Display. Buy (Maintain) Raise TP by 9% to W12,000 (vs. current share price of W7,560)

Donga ST (170900) Company Visit Note. BUY (Maintain)

Daewoo E&C ( KS) WHAT S THE STORY?

YG Entertainment ( KQ)

Samsung Engineering (028050)

Honma Golf Limited Company Report

Binggrae ( KS)

LG Innotek ( KS)

NCSOFT ( KS) 1Q16 preview: Improved earnings quality. Three new titles to be released in 3Q and 4Q each

CJ CGV ( KS) Strong popularity of Masquerade likely to drive 4Q earnings. Entertainment. November 1, 2012 Company Report.

KOLAO Holdings ( KS)

WH Group (288 HK) 3Q17 growth continued to pick up Nov 20, 2017

Kolon Industries ( KS)

Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (downgraded) Target price: HK$ HFY18 results beat, but downgrade from Accumulate to Hold on rich valuation

Samsung Engineering (028050)

TCL Communication (2618 HK) Painful transition period. Buy (Maintain) Target Price HK$2.33 Up/downside +28.5% Current price HK$1.

Shinsegae International ( KS)

Semiconductor equipment

Thailand. Earnings Results 19 ก % YoY. (02) Description :

NHN ( KS) Internet. Betting on LINE. February 8, 2013 Company Report. Buy (Maintain)

BUY. Equity Research. PT Link Net, Tbk. 3 rd April 2018 Trading, Advertising Printing and Media. Investment Consideration

Anta Sports Products [2020.HK]

Company Report. TCL Comm (2618 HK) NDR takeaways: Conservative shipment outlook; Positive on stable margin NEUTRAL WHAT S NEW N/A.

Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON IJ)

Hite Jinro ( KS)

Telkom (TLKM IJ) HOLD (from Buy) Recovery mostly priced-in. Equity Indonesia Telecommunication. Company Update. 28 November 2018

LG International (001120) Poor 3Q expected to be just a blip WHAT S THE STORY? SUMMARY OF 3Q RESULTS

CR Lands. Winner of next 5 years, BUY. March 21, 2018 Equity Research. Stock code: 1109.HK Rating: BUY Price target (HK$) 34.74

Coway ( KS) Good start to China water-purifier market entry. Korea Research KRW121,000 KRW103,000. Event. Impact. Action and recommendation

Transcription:

FILA Korea (8166) BUY (Maintain), TP: W86, (Up) Stock price (Apr 4, KRW) 67,2 Market cap (USD mn) 594 Shares outstanding (mn) 1 52W High/Low (KRW) 89,9/57,5 6M avg. daily turnover (USD mn) 4.4 Free float (%) 88.4 Yr to Sales OP EBT NP EPS % chg EBITDA P/E EV/EBITDA P/B ROE Dec (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (KRW) (YoY) (W bn) (x) (x) (x) (%) 21A 616 98 11 83 1,24 38.7 18 7.8 8.2 2.3 34.8 211A 764 19 3 1 237 (97.6) 117 327.8 8.8 2.4.7 212A 67 91 147 122 12,423 5,141.8 11 5.2 8.7 1.5 33.2 213F 691 13 117 88 8,875 (28.6) 112 7.6 7.9 1.3 19. Foreign ownership (%) 17.7 214F 718 117 148 112 11,228 26.5 127 6. 6.5 1.1 19.8 Note: NP and EPS of controlling interest Ready to join the top rank of sportswear makers Performance 1M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 13.1 (6.) (22.) Rel. to Kospi (%p) 15.8 (4.3) (19.1) 12MF PE trend (X) (KRW) 1. 1, 8. 8, 6. 6, 4. 4, 2. 12MF PER (LHS) price (RHS) 2,. May-8 May-1 May-12 Raise TP to W86,; Profit to pick up from 2Q13: We maintain BUY on FILA Korea and lift the TP from W76, to W86, (13.7x 213F PE). We slightly raised our estimate for equity-method gains to reflect Acushnet s estimate-beating margin improvement in 212. We lifted the 213F EPS 3% and revised up the target PE for overseas businesses from 14x to 16x backed by narrowed discount to global peers from 3% to 2% considering Acushnet s robust sales growth. With effects materializing from the Acushnet buyout, FILA Korea s earnings improved in 1Q12. But FILA Korea and FILA USA s royalty income started shrinking from 2Q12 amid the slowing global economy. As Acushnet began provisioning for incentives (USD4mn p.a.) from 3Q12, expectations for equity-method gains dwindled, leading to the steady share pullback. After touching a low in 1Q13, FILA Korea s OP should start improving from 2Q13 backed by modest economic recovery and greater royalties. EBT that includes equity-method gains from Acushnet should pick up from 3Q13 as well. FILA brand pursues qualitative growth: The FILA brand s products are sold through ~3 licensees around the world. Following the acquisition of FILA Global, FILA Korea entered licensee contracts (less burdensome profit structure) in an effort to quickly normalize operations. The sale of manufactured goods is underway in only Korea and the US. For the FILA brand, FILA Korea should put more focus on quality improvement than quantity growth. FILA USA turned around in 21 on cost cuts and restructuring but it faces a task of making its merchandise (mostly low to mid-end footwear) more competitive. FILA Korea needs to overhaul its product lineup from lifestyle-based to functional products and step up marketing efforts. It is replacing unprofitable licensees into new partners. If strengthening the FILA brand leads to greater sales, better profits and more royalties, FILA Korea s mid/long-term growth potential should firm up. Eun-chae Na 822-3276-616 ec.na@truefriend.com Jinah Na 822-3276-6171 jinah.na@truefriend.com Acushnet a genuine global top-notch brand: Acushnet is a global top-tier brand claiming more than 5% of the golf ball and shoes markets. After FILA Korea acquired Acushnet in 211, the golf goods maker posted USD145mn in sales and USD8mn in OP in 212. Given its incentive provisioning of USD4mn in 212 (to continue through 215), actual OP would have amounted to USD12mn in 212, up from the pre-acquisition figure of USD88mn in 21. FILA Korea owns 16% of Alexandria Holdings, a holding company for Acushnet, and plans to increase the stake to 33% (securing managerial rights) via the annual purchase of warrants and the holding company s Hong Kong IPO scheduled in 216. Equity-method gains from Acushnet should expand from ~W7.3bn in 212 (212 avg. diluted stake 14.3%) to W46bn in 216F (33%). Alexandria Holdings is posting sluggish earnings due to debt and related financial costs and incentive provisioning in the run up to the 216 IPO. But if it goes public, convertible bonds (CB) and 18

redeemable convertible preferred stocks (RCPS) will be converted to common stocks, which will sharply reduce its financial costs. And with the completion of incentive provisioning, Alexandria Holdings should see better earnings from 216. Keep complex accounting issues and BW in mind but focus on earnings at core businesses: FILA Korea faces various accounting issues due to ~3 licensees, a complex governance structure and equity-method gains from Acushnet. In 212, FILA Korea earned W61bn in equity-method gains from Acushnet. Although Acushnet reported NP of USD53mn in the year, it actually made loss given a one-off debt valuation gain of USD8mn (if deducting the gain, Acushnet would have been in the red). In addition, FILA Korea owns 2.25mn bonds with warrants (BW) that could dilute shares. The factors must be fully reflected in the valuation but we believe the focus should be placed on earnings at FILA Korea, FILA USA, royalty business and Acushnet s core business. We anticipate the four businesses to improve from 2Q13. Table 12. Lift TP to W86, (KRW, x, %) 213F Remarks Fully diluted EPS 6,255 Domestic business EPS 2,816 Overseas business EPS 3,439 Target PE 13.7 Domestic business target PE 11. Applied LG Fashion s target PE Overseas business target PE 16. Applied 2% discount to avg. of global sportswear players TP 86, Domestic business value per share 3,981 Overseas business value per share 55,19 Current price (KRW) 66, Upside (%) 3.3 Source: Korea Investment & Securities Table 13. Global sportswear company valuations (x, %) Columbia Deckers Callaway Lulu Avg. Nike Adidas Puma Quiksilver Sportswear Outdoor Golf Lemon PE 212 28.7 22.7 26.7 47.9 17.7 45.7 11.7 NM 5.5 213E 22.6 21.3 17. 17.1 19.6 47.4 13.3 2,193.3 38.2 214E 15.9 18.6 14.3 14.9 17.3 19.1 11.5 29.9 3.9 PB 212 2.6 4.8 2.7 2.1 1.6.9 3.5 1.4 11.7 213E 2.4 4.8 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 2. 1.6 11.7 214E 2.2 4.5 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 8.6 PS 212 1.1 2.1.9 1. 1.1.3 1..5 9.2 213E 1.1 1.9 1. 1.1 1.1.5 1.1.5 7.5 214E 1.1 1.8 1. 1. 1.1.5 1..5 6. EV/EBITDA 212 9.6 13.5 9.4 7.2 8.5 1.8 8.5 NM 21. 213E 9.5 12.6 9.2 8.4 8.9 1. 8.2 1.6 23.4 214E 8.4 11.2 7.9 7.5 7.9 8.3 7.3 6.4 19.1 ROE (%) 212 11.7 22. 1.1 4.4 8.9 (1.8) 26.7 (29.9) 37.1 213E 13.1 22.6 15.9 12.1 9.6 3.1 15.5.9 36.8 214E 14.9 25. 17.2 12.3 11.1 8.7 15.4 3.3 32.4 Note: Excluding Callaway Golf and LuLu Lemon from avg. Source: Korea Investment & Securities 19

Table 14. NP and EPS assumptions (W bn, KRW) 211 212 213F Assumed NP FILA Korea NP.7 121.7 87.9 Valuation NP 53.3 8.8 76.5 Assumed equitymethod gains gains (1% booked) Acushnet accounting-based equity-method (78.9) 61.1 27.5 Acushnet diluted equity-method gains (9.6) 7.3 12.5 Assumed shares FILA Korea total shares (') 9,21 9,938 9,938 Shares subject to dilution due to BW (') 12,223. 12,223. 12,223. Assumed EPS Financial statement NP/total shares 73.5 12,244.9 8,84.1 Financial statement NP/BW added shares 55.4 9,955.8 7,187.5 Valuation NP/total shares 5,792 8,135 7,693 Valuation NP/BW added shares 4,364 6,614 6,255 Source: Korea Investment & Securities Table 15. FILA Korea s key events Year Issue Description Remarks 1991 FILA Korea established FILA Korea was established as the domestic subsidiary of FILA Sport SPA (Italian parent company) 2 SPC established 25 MBO (management buyout) 26 GLBH Holdings S.a.r.l established 27 FILA Global acquired FILA Korea s five management staff established Fashion Flower (SPC) - FILA Korea management led the MBO - FILA Korea acquired and merged with Fashion Flower in Apr 25 1%-invested by FILA Korea - Acquired from SBI via GLBH Holdings S.a.r.l - Acquired FILA Global trademark and operating rights Working capital W38.8bn - Bank loan W13bn, own capital W7bn - Offered unlisted shares worth W18bn (W7,5 per share, 2.4mn shares) Acquisition cost USD127mn (W13bn) - Excluding working capital from SPC, loans mostly came from banks Paper company for acquiring FILA Global 21 IPO FILA Korea s IPO IPO proceeds W113.8mn 211 Acushnet acquired Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities Jointly acquired with Mirae Asset PEF for USD1.26bn Acquisition cost USD4mn (~W37bn) W11bn funded by FI: Fine Partners and three others - Issued redeemable convertible preferred stocks worth W55bn (2.75mn shares) at annual dividend yield of 9.5% - Issued BW worth W55bn (bonds 12%, warrants 3%) Bridge loan W28bn - Initial investment USD1mn, acquiring some warrants every year - Planned IPO of Alexandria Holdings (1%-owned by Acushnet) in 216 Figure 18. FILA Korea s sales breakdown Figure 19. FILA Korea s OP breakdown Overseas Royalty 6% Fila USA 27% Overseas Royalty 43% Fila Korea 46% Fila Korea 67% Fila USA 11% Note: As of 213 Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities 2

Figure 2. FILA Korea-related companies and licensees Source: Company data Figure 21. Acushnet acquisition structure Source: Company data 21

Balance sheet FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 21A 211A 212A 213F 214F Current assets 256 324 292 35 346 Cash & cash equivalents 24 48 36 41 72 Accounts & other receivables 89 123 93 96 1 Inventory 18 131 138 142 148 Non-current assets 425 515 585 637 683 Investment assets 14 32 13 168 26 Tangible assets 4 43 45 46 48 Intangible assets 357 45 379 391 395 Total assets 681 839 877 942 1,28 Current liabilities 188 243 247 225 199 Accounts & other payables 74 89 83 86 89 ST debt & bonds 86 126 86 66 46 Current portion of LT debt 53 53 43 Non-current liabilities 177 298 215 217 22 Debentures 56 57 LT debt & financial liabilities 72 176 152 152 152 Total liabilities 365 541 463 442 419 Controlling interest 316 39 422 58 617 Capital stock 45 47 5 5 5 Capital surplus 75 77 84 84 84 Capital adjustments Retained earnings 17 167 285 371 48 Minority interest (1) (8) (8) (8) Shareholders' equity 316 299 414 5 69 Cash flow FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 21A 211A 212A 213F 214F C/F from operations 27 45 84 6 74 Net profit 83 1 122 88 112 Depreciation 6 8 9 9 9 Amortization Net incr. in W/C (48) (4) 22 (1) (6) Others (15) 76 (69) (27) (41) C/F from investing (21) (118) (48) (32) (11) Capex (8) (11) (11) (11) (11) Decr. in fixed assets Incr. in investment (13) (16) (38) (11) 2 Net incr. in intangible assets () (1) () (12) (4) Others (1) () 1 1 C/F from financing 9 97 (49) (22) (32) Incr. in equity 34 9 Incr. in debt (19) 16 (52) (2) (3) Dividends (1) (5) (2) (2) (2) Others (5) (5) (4) () () C/F from others (3) 1 Increase in cash 12 24 (12) 5 3 Income statement FY-ending Dec. (W bn) Key financial data 21A 211A 212A 213F 214F Sales 616 764 67 691 718 COGS 282 379 322 327 333 Gross profit 333 386 348 364 385 SG&A expenses 235 277 257 262 267 Operating profit 98 19 91 13 117 Financial income 15 39 42 1 1 Interest income 1 1 Financial expenses 18 63 47 14 12 Interest expenses 15 13 16 14 12 Other non-operating profit 4 (3) (1) Gains (Losses) in associates, subsidiaries and JV 2 (79) 61 28 41 Earnings before tax 11 3 147 117 148 Income taxes 18 2 25 28 36 Net profit 83 1 122 88 112 Net profit of controlling interest 83 2 121 88 112 Other comprehensive profit (13) (7) (15) Total comprehensive profit 71 (6) 17 88 112 Total comprehensive profit of controlling interest 71 (6) 17 88 112 EBITDA 14 117 11 112 127 FY-ending Dec. 21A 211A 212A 213F 214F Per-share data (KRW) EPS 1,24 237 12,423 8,875 11,228 BPS 34,646 32,67 42,495 51,12 62,97 DPS 5 25 25 25 25 Growth (%) Sales growth 22.6 24.2 (12.3) 3.1 3.9 OP growth 25.5 11.7 (16.3) 12.1 14.6 NP growth 117.1 (97.4) 5,481. (27.4) 26.5 EPS growth 38.7 (97.6) 5,141.8 (28.6) 26.5 EBITDA growth 23.7 13. (14.) 11.3 13.6 Profitability (%) OP margin 15.9 14.3 13.6 14.8 16.4 NP margin 13.6.3 18.1 12.8 15.5 EBITDA margin 16.8 15.3 15. 16.2 17.7 ROA 13.1.1 14.2 9.7 11.3 ROE 34.8.7 33.2 19. 19.8 Dividend yield.6.3.4.4.4 Stability Net debt (W bn) 176 39 251 226 165 Debt/equity ratio (%) 69.4 121.4 71. 54.8 4.1 Valuation (x) PE 7.8 327.8 5.2 7.6 6. PB 2.3 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 PS 1.1.9.9 1..9 EV/EBITDA 8.5 8.8 8.7 7.9 6.5 Note: K-IFRS (consolidated) 22

Changes to recommendation and price target Company (Code) Date Recommendation Price target Company (Code) Date Recommendation Price target Romanson (264) 4-5-13 NA - 11-15-12 BUY W76, 4-8-13 BUY - 4-5-13 BUY W86, FILA Korea (8166) 4-1-11 BUY W83, Lock&Lock (11539) 5-3-11 BUY W5, 5-29-11 BUY W98, 8-17-11 BUY W48, 5-16-12 BUY W17, 7-31-12 BUY W39, 7-22-12 BUY W88, 2-8-13 BUY W36, Romanson(264) FILA Korea(8166) 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Lock&Lock(11539) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 33