Trade and Development Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1
International Trade: Some Key Issues Many developing countries rely heavily on exports of primary products for income (exceptions are NICs and oil-producing nations in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere) with attendant risks and uncertainty (unstable prices) Many developing countries also rely heavily on imports (typically of machinery, capital goods, intermediate producer goods, and consumer products) to fuel their industrial expansion Many developing countries have chronic deficits on current and capital accounts which depletes their reserves, causes currency instability, slows down economic growth and retards development efforts Recently many developing countries have sought to promote exports (looking outward) and accumulate large foreign exchange reserves to cushion against crises. 2
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International Trade: Some Key Issues Five Basic Questions about Trade and Development How does international trade affect LDC economic growth? How does trade alter the distribution of income? How are the gains and losses distributed? How can trade promote development objectives of LDCs? Can developing countries determine how much they trade? Is outward-looking or inward-looking trade policy best option for LDCs or some combination? 4
International Trade: Some Key Issues Developing countries are generally more dependent on trade than developed countries are Exports are important to developing countries Merchandise exports as a share of GDP are often higher for developing countries; there are exceptions though As a group however developing countries are more dependent on trade in terms of its share in national income than the highly developed countries are Share of manufactures in merchandise exports are low but rising; more important for NICs, including China 5
Merchandise Exports in Perspective: Selected Countries, 2008 6
Demand Elasticities and Export Earnings Instability Export performance of many developing countries has been weak. Why? Elasticity of demand! Often low price elasticity of demand for agricultural commodities Often low price elasticity of supply for agricultural commodities Supply or demand shocks can cause large and volatile price fluctuations In addition, low income elasticity of demand for primary products: values around 0.5 consequence is for their relative price to decline over time. Result is export earnings instability; leading to lower and less predictable rates of economic growth. 7
The Terms of Trade and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Total export earnings depend upon: Total volume of exports sold; and the price paid for exports. Historically, prices of primary commodities have declined relative to manufactured goods. There is decline in the commodity terms of trade for non-oil exporting developing countries. Need more exports to exchange for same quantity of imports. Prebisch and Singer argue that commodity export prices fall over time (low income and price elasticity); developing countries thus lose revenues unless they can continually increase export volumes. Developing countries need to avoid dependence on primary exports; they must diversify into manufactured exports. Success for Asian Tigers, and lately China, India. 8
The Traditional Theory of International Trade Why do people trade? Because it is profitable. Comparative advantage Specialization according to ability Produce what you can at the lowest relative cost and trade the rest. Neoclassical trade models Ricardian (productivity or technology differences) Heckscher and Ohlin (factor endowment differences) Different products require productive factors in different ratios Countries have different endowments of factors of production 9
Trade with Variable Factor Proportions and Different Factor Endowments 10
Trade with Variable Factor Proportions and Different Factor Endowments (continued) 11
The Traditional Theory of International Trade (cont d) Main conclusion of the neoclassical model is that all countries gain from trade World output increases with trade Countries will tend to specialize in products that use their abundant resources intensively International wage rates and capital costs will gradually tend toward equalization Returns to owners of abundant resources will rise relatively Trade will stimulate economic growth. 12
The Traditional Theory of International Trade (cont d) Trade theory and Development: The Traditional Arguments Trade stimulates economic growth Trade promotes international and domestic equality Trade promotes and rewards sectors of comparative advantage International prices and costs of production determine trading volumes to maximize welfare Outward-looking international policy is superior to isolation (free trade is better than autarky). What has been the experience of developing countries? While trade has the potential of raising growth and promoting development, the experiences of developing countries has generally not confirmed this! 13
Unemployment, Resource Underutilization and the Ventfor-Surplus Theory of International Trade (Hla Myint) Unemployed resources creates opportunity for generating surplus through trade More realistic analytical scenario of the historical trading experience of many LDCs However short run beneficiaries often colonial and expatriate entrepreneurs rather than LDC nationals In long run structural orientation of the LDC economy toward primary-product exports, and inhibited needed structural transformation in the direction of a more diversified economy. 14
Critique of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Developing-Country Experience Assumptions of traditional free-trade theory unrealistic in many cases. Some conclusions on trade and economic development strategy Trade can lead to rapid economic growth under some circumstances Examples of China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc. Trade seems to reinforce existing income inequalities Trade can benefit developing countries if they can extract trade concessions from developed countries Lower barriers to labor-intensive manufactures. Developing countries generally must trade, perhaps more among themselves Regional cooperation may help developing countries. 15
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers Primary-commodity export expansion, limited demand Low income elasticities Low population growth rates in developed economies Decline in prices implies low/loss of revenue (some periods of price spikes, including recent years, but very long-run trend has been downward) Lack of success with international commodity agreements Development of synthetic substitutes (rubber, cotton, etc.) Agricultural subsidies in developed countries Primary-commodity export expansion, supply rigidities (slow export response supply capacities) Expanding Exports of manufactured goods: Greater successes, particularly, Asian Tigers and more recently China; Thus, unevenly distributed across the developing world. 16
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Import substitution: looking inward but still paying outward In the 1950s and 1960s Domestic production largely manufactured consumer goods to replace imports Large imports of intermediate inputs Tariffs, infant industries, and the theory of protection. 17
Import Substitution and the Theory of Protection 18
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution The import substitution (IS) industrialization strategy and results Protected industries get inefficient and costly Foreign firms often benefit more (locate behind tariff walls) Subsidization of imports of capital goods tilts pattern of industrialization (capital intensive with little employment effects) and contributes to balance of payments (BOP) problems (repatriation of profits, etc.) Overvalued exchange rates hurt/penalize exports Does not stimulate self-reliant integrated industrialization (very little linkages backward & forward). 19
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Tariff Structure and Effective Protection Nominal rate of protection Extent (in percentage) to which price of imported good exceeds world price Effective rate of protection Percentage by which domestic value-added increases with protection compared to free-trade. 20
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution The nominal tariff rate, t, is t p p p (12.1) Where p is the tariff-inclusive price p is the free trade price 21
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution (cont d) Tariff Structures and Effective Protection The effective tariff rate, ρ, is v v v (12.2) Where v is the value added per unit of output, inclusive of the tariff v is the value added per unit of output under free trade 22
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Standard argument for tariff protection Source of revenue Response to chronic BOP problems Help foster industrial self-reliance and greater control over economic destinies. Infant industry protection argument Many examples of perceived failures, but some success in East Asia Lesson: Protection must be applied selectively and wisely. 23
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Foreign-exchange rates, exchange controls, and the devaluation decision Developing country currencies have often been overvalued (excess of local demand over available (foreign) exchange) A developing country can devalue currency, or Can run down reserves Can curtail excess demand through taxes, tariffs, dual exchange rates Can use exchange controls (rationing but breeds corruption; also black markets, etc.) Can switch to freely convertible foreign exchange. 24
Free-Market and Controlled Rates of Foreign Exchange 25
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Chronic payments deficits can be ameliorated by a currency devaluation Note difference between depreciation and devaluation Higher import prices (from devaluation) result in an inflationary wage-price spiral Distributional effects; tradable sector benefits at expense of non-tradable sector. 26
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Trade Optimists and Trade Pessimists: Summarizing the Traditional Debate Trade pessimist arguments Limited growth of world demand for primary exports (synthetic substitutes, low income elasticities, etc.) Secular deterioration in terms of trade Specializing in comparative advantage inhibits industrialization, skills accumulation, and entrepreneurship Rise of new protectionism in developed countries; WTO benefits limited in practice. 27
Traditional Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Trade optimist arguments - trade liberalization: Promotes competition and efficiency (improved resource allocation) Generates pressure for product improvement Attracts foreign capital and expertise, which are in scarce supply in most developing countries, thus accelerating economic growth Generates foreign exchange to use for food imports if agricultural sector lags behind or suffers natural catastrophes Eliminates distortions caused by government interventions including corruption and rent-seeking activities Enables developing countries to take full advantage of reforms (reduction/elimaination of trade barriers, etc.) under the WTO. 28
South-South Trade and Economic Integration Economic Integration: Theory and Practice The growth of trade among developing countries. Integration encourages rational division of labor among a group of countries and increases market size Provides opportunities for a coordinated industrial strategy to exploit economies of scale. These are dynamic effects. Two main static effects: trade creation versus trade diversion. 29
Trade Policies of Developed Countries: The Need for Reform and Resistance to New Protectionist Pressures Rich-nation economic and commercial policies matter for developing countries Tariff and non-tariff barriers to developing country exports Adjustment assistance for displaced workers in developed-country industries hurt by freer access of labor-intensive, low-cost LDC exports General impact of rich-country economic policies on developing economies World Trade Organization (GATT since 1948, until 1995) Despite 8 liberalization rounds over 50 years, trade barriers remain in place in agriculture (of most interest to developing countries); and, through various mechanisms, to a degree in other sectors. Doha Development Round begun 2001 with focus on needs of developing world; not much progress has been made. 30