US Economic Indicators: NFIB December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni -972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-14 December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
11 Figure 1. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OPTIMISM INDEX (1986=1, sa) 11 1 1 9 9 9 9 8 Monthly data* (17.) -ma (14.9) 8 8 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 8 8 7 Figure 2. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OUTOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS (percent better minus worse 6 months from now) 8 7 6 6 4 Monthly data* (48.) -ma (4.) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 -4 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2-3 -4 Page 1 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
4 3 Figure 3. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OUTOOK FOR EXPANSION (percent good time to expand next 3 months) Monthly data* (27.) -ma (23.1) 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 - Figure 4. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: REAL SALES (Net percent expecting higher in 6 months) Monthly data* (34.) -ma (23.) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 - * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly Page 2 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
1 Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS (percent higher minus lower over past 3 months) 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 -3-4 Monthly data* -ma -4-74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2-48 44 Figure 6. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PLANS (percent increasing in the next 3 months) 48 44 4 4 36 36 32 32 2 Monthly data* -ma 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 2 * First month of every quarter from 1976 to 1986, then monthly. Page 3 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
1 Figure 7. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: INVENTORIES (percent increasing) 1 - - -1-1 - - -2-2 -3 Monthly data -month average 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 2-2 -2-3 Figure 8. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: HIRING PLANS (percent increase minus decrease over next 3 months) 2 2 8 8 4 4-4 Monthly data* (.) -ma (17.7) -4-8 -8-74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 - Page 4 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
4 Figure 9. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & HIRING PLANS 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 Percent with job openings* (3.) Net percent increasing hiring over next 3 months* (.) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2-1 6 Figure 1. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & QUALIFIED APPLICANTS (percent, sa) 6 4 Percent with few or no qualified applicants for job openings (44.) Percent with job openings* (3.) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 Page / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
Figure 11. NFIB: PERCENT BORROWING AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER 1 47 Monthly data* -ma 1 47 43 43 39 39 31 27 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 31 27 Source: National Federation of Small Business. 36 34 32 3 26 22 2 18 14 1 8 6 4 2-2 Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: REPORTING THAT CREDIT WAS HARDER TO GET LAST TIME (net percent) Monthly data* -ma 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 36 34 32 3 26 22 2 18 14 1 8 6 4 2-2 Source: National Federation of Small Business. Page 6 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
7 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 Figure 13. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: PRICING (percent) Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices* Percent Raising Average Selling Prices* 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 Figure 14. NFIB: PRICING (6-ma) Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices Percent Raising Average Selling Prices 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 Page 7 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
4 3 2 Figure. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS SMALL BUSINESSES FACE (percent, 6-ma) Poor Sales Taxes Government Regulation Financial & Interest Rates 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & POOR SALES (percent, -ma) 1-1 -2 2 2 3 Percent Reporting Poor Sales (inverted scale) NFIB: Earnings Higher Minus Lower Past 3 Months -3-4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 - Page 8 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
4 Figure 17. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND, CAPITAL SPENDING & EMPLOYMENT PLANS (-month average, percent) Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) 4 3 3 2 Good Time To Expand 2 1 1 Plans To Increase Employment -1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19-1 4 36 32 2 8 4-4 -8 Figure 18. NFIB: EXPANSION PLANS (-month average, percent) 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 Capital Spending Plans (next 3 to 6 months) Percent of Firms With One or More Job Openings Percent of Firms Expecting to Increase Employment 4 36 32 2 8 4-4 -8 Page 9 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
Figure 19. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & EARNINGS (-month average, percent) -1 2-2 Good Time To Expand -3 8 Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower) -4 4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19-4 Figure 2. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & CAPITAL SPENDING PLANS (-month average, percent) 3 2-1 Earnings Over Past 3 Months* (higher minus lower) -3 Capital Spending Plans* (next 3 to 6 months) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2-4 * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then -month average. Page 1 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
3 2 Figure 21. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT MEASURES (-month average, percent) Firms With One Or More Job Openings 3 2 2 2 1 1 Expecting To Increase Employment - 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19-4 4 Figure 22. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & CAPITAL SPENDING (-month average, percent) 4 4 3 Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) 3 2 2 2 2 1 Good Time To Expand 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 Page 11 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
4 Figure 23. NFIB: CAPITAL SPENDING INTENTIONS & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP 3 4 2 1 3 2 Q3 2 NFIB: Percent Planning Capital Expenditures Next 3 to 6 Months -1 1 Capital Spending in Real GDP on Equipment & Software (yearly percent change) 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business. -2-3 8 7 6 Figure. NFIB: CAPITAL SPENDING (percent) Capital Spending (percent) Making Plans Over the Past 6 Months Planning Over Next 3 to 6 Months 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 26 27 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 2 217 218 1 Page / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
1 8 6 4 2 Figure 2. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NFIB: Small Business with Job Openings* (percent, 3-month average) Unemployment Rate (percent) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 41 39 37 33 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 13 11 9 7 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 Figure 26. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent) 7 7 6 3 2 1 Small Business with Job Openings* (3-ma) (31.7) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Hard to Get** (.9) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 ** Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board. Page 13 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
2 Figure 27. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT PLANS (-month average, percent) 1 1-1 -2 Earnings Over Past 3 Months* (higher minus lower) -3 Expecting To Increase Employment* (next 3 months) -4-1 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 14 18 2 - * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then -month average. Page 14 / December 21, 217 / NFIB www.
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