Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies January 4, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies 1 Stock Markets: Americas 2-3 Stock Markets: Asia 4-7 Stock Markets 8-9 US$ Forex Rates: Americas 1 US$ Forex Rates: Asia 11 Fragile Five 12-13 Emerging Markets Bond Yields 14-15 January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
16 Figure 1. EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES 7 14 6 12 Local Currency 5 1 US Dollars 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: MSCI. 2 Figure 2. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX* (US$) 2 15 15 1 1 5 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5 * Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Americas 65 55 Figure 3. EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI (US$) ARGENTINA MSCI 5 4 45 35 25 3 2 15 1 5 5 BRAZIL MSCI CHILE MSCI 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 8 MEXICO MSCI PERU MSCI 2 6 15 4 1 2 5 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Americas 1 8 Figure 4. EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI (local currencies) ARGENTINA MSCI 4 3 6 2 4 2 1 35 3 25 BRAZIL MSCI CHILE MSCI 7 6 5 2 4 15 3 1 2 5 1 5 MEXICO MSCI PERU MSCI 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Asia 7 6 Figure 5. EM ASIA MSCI (US$) CHINA MSCI 14 12 5 4 3 1 8 6 4 2 2 1 HONG KONG MSCI 14 SINGAPORE MSCI 12 7 6 1 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 6 SOUTH KOREA MSCI 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. TAIWAN MSCI 4 4 3 2 2 1 Page 4 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Asia 1 8 6 Figure 6. EM ASIA MSCI (local currencies) CHINA MSCI 14 12 1 8 6 4 4 2 2 18 16 HONG KONG MSCI SINGAPORE MSCI 5 14 4 12 1 3 8 2 6 4 1 8 SOUTH KOREA MSCI TAIWAN MSCI 5 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Asia 12 1 8 Figure 7. INDONESIA MSCI (US$) THE PHILIPPINES MSCI 7 6 5 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 6 MALAYSIA MSCI INDIA MSCI 8 5 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 6 THAILAND MSCI PAKISTAN MSCI 25 5 2 4 15 3 2 1 1 5 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets: Asia 8 Figure 8. INDONESIA MSCI (local currencies) THE PHILIPPINES MSCI 2 6 15 4 1 2 5 7 MALAYSIA MSCI INDIA MSCI 15 6 5 1 4 3 5 2 1 7 6 THAILAND MSCI PAKISTAN MSCI 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets 2 15 Figure 9. RUSSIA MSCI (US$) ISRAEL MSCI 4 3 1 2 5 1 2 POLAND MSCI TURKEY MSCI 9 15 7 1 5 5 3 1 15 HUNGARY MSCI EGYPT MSCI 16 14 1 12 1 5 8 6 4 11 1 9 CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA MSCI 7 6 8 5 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
Stock Markets 2 15 Figure 1. RUSSIA MSCI (local currencies) ISRAEL MSCI 4 3 1 5 2 1 3 POLAND MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX TURKEY STOCK PRICE INDEX 2 25 15 2 15 1 1 5 5 25 HUNGARY MSCI EGYPT MSCI 4 2 3 15 2 1 5 1 7 6 5 CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA MSCI 2 15 4 3 2 1 5 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
US$ Forex Rates: Americas 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Figure 11. MEXICO (Peso/$) BRAZIL (Real/$).1.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 22 4.6-5 5 1 15 2 ARGENTINA (Peso/$) CHILE (Peso/$) 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 VENEZUELA (Bolivar Fuerte/$) 12/29 COLOMBIA (Peso/$) 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 2.2 2.4 2.6 PERU (New Sol/$) 2.8 3. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
US$ Forex Rates: Asia 5.6 6. 6.4 6.8 Figure 12. CHINA (Yuan/$) 12/29 MALAYSIA (Ringgit/$) 2.5 3. 3.5 7.2 7.6 8. 12/29 4. 4.5 8.4 5. 6 8 SOUTH KOREA (Won/$) INDONESIA (Rupiah/$) 6 8 1 12/29 1 12 12 14 14 16 16 25 35 INDIA (Rupee/$, inverted scale) THAILAND (Baht/$) 25 3 45 35 55 65 4 75 45 2-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. Page 11 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
5 Figure 13. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: FRAGILE FIVE (percent change) Fragile Five Latest data thru: /18 5-5 -5-1 Brazil (-57.6) India (-15.7) Indonesia (-39.3) South Africa (-45.1) Turkey (-19.9) -1-15 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASOND 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. -15 6 4 Figure 14. MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE (US$, percent change) Latest data thru: /18 6 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -8 Brazil (-21.6) India (42.7) Indonesia (3.4) South Africa (4.4) Turkey (-32.4) -6-8 -1 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASOND 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. -1 Page 12 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
7 6 5 4 3 Figure 15. MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE (local currencies, percent change) Brazil (23.6) India (65.1) Indonesia (44.1) South Africa (51.4) Turkey (42.) Fragile Five Latest data thru: /18 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 -3-4 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ JASOND 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. -4 Page 13 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
14 12 1 Figure 16. Emerging Markets Bond Yields 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Hong Kong (1.88) India (7.34) Malaysia (3.92) Philippines (5.5) 14 12 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Haver Analytics. 8 6 Figure 17. 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Singapore (2.4) South Korea (2.52) Taiwan (.97) Thailand (2.38) 8 6 4 4 2 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 14 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
16 14 12 1 Figure 18. Emerging Markets Bond Yields 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Brazil (4.52) Chile (4.48) Colombia (6.35) 16 14 12 1 8 8 6 6 4 1/3 4 2 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 15 / January 4, 218 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
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