Population Forecasts: Long-Term Projections for Clark County, Nevada 2013-2050 2013 Prepared by Constant I. Tra, Ph.D., Associate Director Prepared for Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition, and members of the Forecasting Group July 11, 2013
Population Forecasts: Long-Term Projections for Clark County, Nevada 2013-2050 The Center for Business and Economic Research Prepared by Constant I. Tra, Ph.D. 4505 S. Maryland Parkway Las Vegas, Nevada 89154-6002 (702) 895-3191 CBER@unlv.nevada.edu http://cber.unlv.edu Copyright 2013, CBER
TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 1 I. Introduction... 5 II. Comparison of REMI Models: Current and Previous Year... 7 III. Recalibrating the Model... 10 A. Employment adjustment... 11 B. Transportation and infrastructure improvements... 14 C. Amenity adjustments... 15 D. Rebasing the population forecast... 16 IV. Analysis of the Economic and Demographic Forecast... 16 A. Population... 17 B. Employment... 19 C. Gross regional product... 20 V. Comparing Current Forecast with Previous Years of the Forecast... 23 VI. Risks to the Forecast... 24 VII. Conclusion... 26 Appendix: Detailed Report Tables... 27 i
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Clark County Final Population Forecast: 2000-2050...3 Table 2: Employment Growth Rates for Clark County before Adjustment...12 Table 3: Model Job Adjustments (in 000s) for 2012...13 Table 4: Population History, REMI Forecast, and Rebased Forecast...18 Table 5: Employment History and Forecasts...20 Table 6: Gross Regional Product History and Forecasts...22 Table A1: Out-of-the-Box Clark County Population and Population Growth Forecasts from REMI Models LHY2011 and LHY2009...28 Table A2: Detailed Final Population Forecast: 2000-2050...29 Table A3: Economic Forecast after Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments...30 Table A4: Employment (in 000s)...32 Table A5: Employment II (in 000s)...35 Table A6: Gross Regional Product (Fixed 2005 $)...37 Table A7: Income (Billions of current $)...39 Table A8: Population and Labor Force (in 000s)...42 Table A9: Demographics (in 000s)...44 ii
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Clark County Population Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2011 and LHY2009: 2013-2035...9 Figure 2: Clark County Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2011 and LHY2009: 2013-2035...9 Figure 3: Clark County Historic Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: 2013-2035...24 iii
Executive Summary Each year, the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (RTC), the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), the Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition (SNRPC), the (CBER) at the, and a group of community demographers and analysts work together to provide a long-term forecast of economic and demographic variables influencing Clark County's population growth. The primary goal is to develop a longterm forecast of the Clark County population that is consistent with the structural economic characteristics of the county. Toward this end, we employ a generalequilibrium demographic and economic model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), specifically for Clark County. The model recalibration incorporates the most recent available information regarding local employment growth, local transit investment, and an amenity factor representing negative externalities from local growth. The resulting long-term forecast predicts positive population growth throughout the range of the forecast. By 2035, we predict that Clark County s population will reach approximately 2.65 million. By 2050, we predict that it will reach nearly 3.10 million. Table 1 summarizes the population forecast. We anticipate that population growth will be moderate in the near future. The population in Clark County is predicted to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent in 2013. Despite short-term economic uncertainties and modeling difficulties, we note that this forecast is intended for medium- to long-term planning purposes. In the medium term, the population growth rate rises to 1.5 percent and then declines to 1.3 percent by 2020 as the Southern Nevada economy moves closer to maturity. In the long term, population growth begins to taper off as the maturing 1
economy attracts fewer economic migrants. By 2035, annual population growth has declined to 1.1 percent. By 2050, the growth reaches 1.0 percent, roughly twice the projected 1 long-term national population growth rate. This represents a long-term convergence to the national average annual population growth rate. As is typical of any forecast, there are potential risks which could lead to either over- or underestimated population growth in the short run. The principal risk to our forecast is the recovery of the Southern Nevada economy in the short term. The assumption underlying this forecast is that the local economy will continue to recover in 2013. To the extent that the near term economic outlook differs, the short-run forecasts will differ. We believe, however, that these risks tend to arise from short-term uncertainty; whereas, our forecasts are primarily meant to be long-term planning tools. 1 Source: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012.html 2
Table 1: Clark County Final Population Forecast 2000-2050 Population Change in Population Growth in Population Year Forecast Forecast (Percent) 2000 1,428,689* 107,513 8.1% 2001 1,498,278* 69,589 4.9% 2002 1,578,332* 80,054 5.3% 2003 1,641,529* 63,197 4.0% 2004 1,747,025* 105,496 6.4% 2005 1,815,700* 68,675 3.9% 2006 1,912,654* 96,954 5.3% 2007 1,996,542* 83,888 4.4% 2008 1,986,145* -10,397-0.5% 2009 2,006,347* 20,202 1.0% 2010 1,951.269** -55,078-2.7% 2011 1,966,630* 15,361 0.8% 2012 2,008,654* 42,024 2.1% 2013 2,031,000*** 22,346 1.1% 2014 2,061,000*** 30,000 1.5% 2015 2,085,000 24,000 1.2% 2016 2,111,000 26,000 1.2% 2017 2,138,000 27,000 1.3% 2018 2,167,000 29,000 1.4% 2019 2,196,000 29,000 1.3% 2020 2,224,000 28,000 1.3% 2021 2,253,000 29,000 1.3% 2022 2,281,000 28,000 1.2% 2023 2,309,000 28,000 1.2% 2024 2,337,000 28,000 1.2% 2025 2,365,000 28,000 1.2% 2026 2,393,000 28,000 1.2% 2027 2,421,000 28,000 1.2% 2028 2,449,000 28,000 1.2% 2029 2,477,000 28,000 1.1% 2030 2,506,000 29,000 1.2% 2031 2,534,000 28,000 1.1% 2032 2,562,000 28,000 1.1% 2033 2,591,000 29,000 1.1% 2034 2,619,000 28,000 1.1% 2035 2,648,000 29,000 1.1% 2040 2,793,000 30,000 1.1% 2045 2,946,000 31,000 1.1% 2050 3,104,000 32,000 1.0% *SNRPC consensus population estimate. ** 2010 U.S. Census. ***CBER 2013 Economic Outlook forecast. 3
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the members of the Population Forecasting Group for comments on earlier versions of this report; and Rennae Daneshvary for editing the report. 4
I. Introduction Each year, the Regional Transportation Commission (RTC), the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), the Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition (SNRPC), the (CBER) at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and a group of community demographers and analysts work together to provide a long-term forecast of economic and demographic variables influencing Clark County. The primary goal is to develop a long-term forecast of the Clark County population that is consistent with the structural economic characteristics of the county. Toward this end, we employ a general-equilibrium demographic and economic model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), specifically for Clark County. The REMI model is a state-of-the-art econometric forecasting model that accounts for dynamic feedbacks between economic and demographic variables. Special features allow the user to update the model to include the most current economic information. CBER calibrates the model using information on recent local employment levels, the most recent national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast, spending on local capital projects, and adjustments for amenities related to local population growth. The model employed divides Nevada into five regions: Clark County; Nye County; Lincoln County; Washoe County; and the remaining counties, which are combined to form a fifth region. These regions are modeled using the U.S. economy as a backdrop. The model contains over 100 economic and demographic relationships that are carefully constructed to concisely represent the Clark County economy. The model includes equations to account for migration and trade between Nevada counties and other states and counties in the country. 5
The demographic and economic data used to construct the model begin in 1990, the most important of which include the aggregate totals of employment, labor force, and population. The economic data for the most recent version of the model (REMI PI+ v1.5) are consistent with the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The most recent data for REMI PI+ v1.5 are from 2011 because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) personal-income data are reported with a two-year lag. Over the years, the availability of the income data has been the key in setting the last year of history in the model. The REMI model is the best model available for describing how economies interact geographically. 2 These interactions may take place within a single economy (such as the interaction between house-price growth and employment growth in Clark County) or between two economies (such as the interaction between Southern Nevada and Southern California). These and over 100 other interactions contained within the model are too complex to consider modeling on our own. Rather, we turn to the REMI model because it has a solid foundation in economic theory and the principles of generalequilibrium-based growth distribution, yet it still offers the flexibility required to model a regional economy like Clark County. To assure that the most current data are used in the forecast, we make a series of adjustments to the model. In this way, we ensure that the forecast model includes the best available information at the time the forecast is made. First, the model is updated with the employment figures from the Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation (DETR). Next, we include planned new investment in public infrastructure using information from RTC. The third adjustment accounts for the potential secondary 2 See Schwer, R. K. and D. Rickman (1995), A comparison of the multipliers of IMPLAN, REMI and RIMS II: Benchmarking ready-made models for comparison, The Annals of Regional Science. 6
effects of population growth on the quality of life in Clark County. Lastly, we rebase the population forecast to the most recent population estimate for Clark County available from the SNRPC. In the following section, we first examine the changes in the REMI model from last year s model. Following that, in Section III, we present sequentially the changes we make to update the model and tailor it to local information. In Section IV, we present the population forecast and give a brief discussion of the economic environment surrounding the forecast. In Section V, we compare the population growth forecast with previous years forecasts. We conclude with a discussion of the risks to the forecast. II. Comparison of REMI Models: Current and Previous Year Over the years, we have compared the most recent out-of-the-box REMI models, that is, the current forecast before any model recalibrations are made, with corresponding out-ofthe-box forecasts from the previous models. This gives us the opportunity to examine how the new model differs from the previous versions and to explore the basis of these differences. The most recent data used to develop this year s model are from 2011. Thus, we refer to the current model as last historical year 2011 (LHY2011) and the previous model as last historical year 2009 (LHY2009). Each year the REMI staff and users discuss the workings of the model and propose changes for improvement. Based on research findings, each year s model incorporates improvements in addition to the inclusion of more recent data. The new model, identified as PI+ v1.5, offers one major improvement; the model includes a new commuter flow equation. In prior models, the commuter flows are set to the last historical year values. These values are determined by Journey to Work and Residence Adjustment 7
data from the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new equation takes into account the spatial distance and relative cost of living between places of residence and places of work. These model updates and the new data history for 2011 lead to the differences in the out-of-the-box population forecast between the LHY2011 model and the LHY2009 model. Figures 1 and 2 compare the LHY2011 and LHY2009 population forecasts from the out-of-the-box models, i.e., without any updating for migration, employment, infrastructure projects, the amenity factor, or the national GDP forecast. 3 The out-of-thebox population forecast arising from the LHY2011 model predicts lower population levels for 2013 through 2035 than the LHY2009 model. With regards to population levels, the difference between the two forecasts is relatively small in 2013 but gets larger in the later years of the forecast. By 2035, the out-of-the-box forecasted population in the LHY2011 model is nearly 210,000 people lower than the LHY2009 model. 3 The detailed out-of-the-box results through 2050 appear in Table A1 of the Appendix. 8
Figure 1: Clark County Population Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2011 and LHY2009: 2013-2035 Note: Out-of-the-box refers to the model prior to recalibration. These numbers are not the final forecast. Figure 2: Clark County Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2011 and LHY2009: 2013-2035 Note: Out-of-the-box refers to the model prior to recalibration. These numbers are not the final forecast. 9
The lower out-of-the-box forecasted population levels from the LHY2011 model are due to the additional economic history, from 2010 and 2011, and the short-term economic forecast for 2012. The Las Vegas metropolitan area lost 11,500 jobs in 2010 and gained 9,500 jobs in 2011, for a net loss of 2,000 jobs over the two-year period. In addition, the LHY2011 model has a more conservative employment growth rate forecast for 2012, 2.3 percent, compared to the LHY2009 model s employment growth rate forecast of 3.5 percent for 2012. As a result the LHY2011 model has fewer economic migrants and a lower population in 2012. This translates to the lower out-of-the-box population forecasts for the LHY2011 model compared to the LHY2009 model. III. Recalibrating the Model County-level personal income is only available with a two-year lag. As a result, the REMI model also has a two-year lag with the most recent historical data from 2011 for the current model, PI+ v1.5, released in 2013. To bring the model up to date, we update available pertinent model information, including the most recent employment figures, spending on capital projects, and adjustments for disamenities related to population growth to reflect local information in the forecast. We describe each update in turn. Last year, we made an adjustment to the national GDP forecast using the most recent national GDP forecast from the University of Michigan s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). This adjustment is not necessary this year because the current REMI model, PI+ v1.5, was released in May 2013 and includes the most recent RSQE forecast from March 2013. In previous years, we made an adjustment to future hotel employment based on local expectations of hotel rooms that will be added in the near future. This ensures that the model includes a good short-term forecast of new hotel investment and employment. 10
This year, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) projects that 2,892 new hotel/motel rooms will be added to the local room stock by the end of 2014. Assuming a jobs-to-room multiplier of 1.6, this would imply roughly 4,627 new jobs for the accommodation sector. However, the REMI model s baseline employment forecast for the accommodation industry already predicts 12,000 additional jobs by the end of 2014. As a result, we did not make an additional adjustment for new hotel rooms. The current forecast relies on the REMI model s growth forecast for the accommodation sector in the near term. The REMI model s baseline employment growth forecast for the accommodation industry is roughly 3.2 percent and 3.5 percent in the years 2013 and 2014, respectively. A. Employment adjustment One of the most noteworthy updates we make to the REMI model is the employment adjustment. The industry-level employment data used by REMI are the sum of the BLS wage and salary estimates for Clark County and REMI s BLS-based estimate of the number of proprietors. The most recent historical year in the model data is 2011. However, more recent wage and salary employment data are available from the Nevada DETR for 2012. Thus, we update the model to account for the more recent information. The latest growth rates for the out-of-the-box REMI-model forecasts and recent DETR estimates are shown in Table 2 for 2012. The actual growth rates from DETR differ substantially from the REMI out-of-the-box forecasts, suggesting a clear need for adjustments. The employment update is as follows: We calculate the annual percentage change using DETR data and apply the percentage changes to generate new estimates for 2012. The underlying assumption of this procedure is that the proportion of self- 11
employed in each industry classification grows at the same rate as does the ratio between full- and part-time workers. Table 2: Employment Growth Rates for Clark County before Adjustment REMI Baseline Forecast DETR Estimates Industrial Classification 2012 2012 Construction 5.96% -3.14% Wholesale trade -3.85% -0.98% Retail trade 1.08% 4.37% Transit, ground pass transportation -4.55% 5.51% Monetary authorities, et al. -2.01% 1.50% Ins carriers, related activities -3.84% 3.10% Real estate 0.87% 8.33% Prof, technical services 2.53% 1.53% Management of companies 1.98% 9.22% Administrative, support services 3.33% 5.71% Ambulatory health care services 3.05% 2.58% Hospitals 3.54% 2.53% Amusement, gambling, and rec 1.64% 3.36% Accommodation 3.39% -1.20% Food services, drinking places 3.39% 2.44% Total 2.31% 1.89% Table 3 reports the updated employment data by category for the model. The Clark County job growth numbers in 2012 suggest that general economic conditions are still improving in the Las Vegas area. While the Southern Nevada economy gained 1.3 percent of its total employment in 2011, the DETR estimates suggest that Clark County employment grew by 2.7 in 2012. Strong positive job growth took place in 2011 in key sectors such as health care services, retail, and food services. However, other key sectors such as construction and accommodation experienced job losses. Nevertheless, it appears that the Southern Nevada economy is still on the road to economic recovery. Overall, Southern Nevada s economy gained roughly 21,000 jobs in 2012. 12
Table 3: Model Job Adjustments (in 000s) for 2012 Baseline DETR Growth Rates Adjusted Job Levels Industrial Classification History 2011 2012 2012 Forestry et al. 0.20 1.48% 0.21 Agriculture 0.12 0.87% 0.12 Oil and gas extraction 1.65-3.03% 1.60 Mining (except oil and gas) 0.59-0.17% 0.59 Support activities for mining 0.13 5.97% 0.14 Utilities 2.92-1.51% 2.88 Construction 48.08-3.14% 46.57 Wood product manufacturing 0.37 1.36% 0.37 Nonmetallic mineral product mfg 1.78 2.41% 1.82 Primary metal mfg 0.58-4.63% 0.56 Fabricated metal product mfg 1.72 1.28% 1.74 Machinery manufacturing 0.56-4.13% 0.53 Computer and electronic product mfg 0.56-5.20% 0.53 Electrical equipment mfg 0.46-4.13% 0.44 Motor vehicles and parts mfg 0.17 2.31% 0.18 Other transportation equipment mfg 0.19-4.30% 0.18 Furniture and related product mfg 0.87 0.34% 0.88 Miscellaneous manufacturing 5.41-16.24% 4.54 Food manufacturing 2.99 0.07% 2.99 Beverage and tobacco product mfg 0.17-1.17% 0.17 Textile mills; Textile product mills 0.49-4.12% 0.47 Apparel manufacturing 0.28-12.68% 0.25 Paper manufacturing 0.39 1.55% 0.39 Printing and related support activities 2.35 1.07% 2.37 Petroleum and coal products mfg 0.03 0.00% 0.03 Chemical manufacturing 0.78 0.51% 0.79 Plastics and rubber product mfg 1.58 2.03% 1.61 Wholesale trade 24.26 4.92% 25.46 Retail trade 111.13 4.21% 115.81 Air transportation 5.72-0.98% 5.66 Rail transportation 0.37 4.37% 0.39 Water transportation 0.03 2.94% 0.04 Truck transportation 4.81 3.80% 4.99 Couriers and messengers 3.02 4.47% 3.16 Transit and ground passenger transp 14.05 2.37% 14.38 Pipeline transportation 0.02 5.51% 0.02 Scenic and sightseeing transportation 5.37 1.73% 5.46 Warehousing and storage 4.38 4.25% 4.57 13
Table 3 Continued: Baseline DETR Growth Rates Adjusted Job Levels Industrial Classification History 2011 2012 2012 Publishing, exc Internet 2.31-0.26% 2.30 Motion picture, sound rec 2.58 5.90% 2.73 Internet serv, data proc, other 1.73 4.17% 1.80 Broadcasting, exc Int 1.44 3.05% 1.49 Telecommunication 4.96 0.18% 4.97 Monetary authorities, et al. 25.36 1.50% 25.74 Sec, comm contracts, inv 25.21 1.01% 25.46 Ins carriers, rel act 12.56 3.10% 12.95 Real estate 63.75 8.33% 69.06 Rental, leasing services 6.13 1.80% 6.24 Prof, tech services 56.20 1.53% 57.06 Mgmt of companies, enterprises 15.97 9.22% 17.45 Administrative, support services 73.62 5.71% 77.83 Waste mgmt, remed services 2.01 2.24% 2.05 Educational services 10.31 6.64% 10.99 Ambulatory health care services 37.32 2.58% 38.28 Hospitals 15.94 2.53% 16.34 Nursing, residential care facilities 7.54 2.72% 7.74 Social assistance 16.42 3.36% 16.97 Performing arts, spectator sports 18.81 3.23% 19.42 Museums et al. 0.32 4.63% 0.34 Amusement, gambling, recreation 14.17 3.36% 14.65 Accommodation 167.05-1.20% 165.05 Food services, drinking places 81.42 2.44% 83.40 Repair, maintenance 10.33 1.63% 10.50 Personal, laundry services 16.77 0.02% 16.77 Membership assoc, organ 8.04 1.64% 8.17 Private households 12.16 2.43% 12.45 State & local gov 81.84-0.76% 81.22 Federal civilian 11.75-0.71% 11.67 Federal military 15.03-3.74% 14.47 Farm 0.23-0.43% 0.23 Total 1,067.84 1.89% 1,088.64 B. Transportation and infrastructure improvements Clark County has continued to invest in transportation infrastructure such as roads, highways, and mass transit. The model assumes that public-infrastructure investment will continue at a pace consistent with the model history. Thus, some local spending on public infrastructure, such as road building and additional services, is built into the model. However, one-time monies tend to come from outside the region (for example, federal 14
transportation funding). These large, special projects need to be accounted for in the forecast. Whereas some of the planned expenditures are new money, the remaining would have been spent for other purposes. Thus, in order to avoid double-counting and retain a balanced budget, the expenditures are entered in the REMI model as translator policy variables. The model then computes the actual new expenditures over and above what is already included and returns them as policy variables. The estimated federal funding in transportation-infrastructure investment expenditures is about $319 million in 2013, $170 million in 2014, $2.04 billion between 2015 and 2020, and $4.40 billion between 2021 and 2030. 4 These expenditures are annualized and included in the REMI model as new construction projects. C. Amenity adjustments For over a decade, the Las Vegas metropolitan area was one of the fastest-growing communities in the United States. This has helped maintain a vibrant economy, but research has shown that rapid urban expansion is frequently correlated with a diminishing quality of life as congestion, deteriorating air quality, and a shortage of public services take their toll on local populations. These negative externalities arising from rapid growth impose costs on local residents, making the county less attractive to those living here and potential in-migrants. As a result, people are more likely to relocate to areas with a higher quality of life, all else being equal. To account for the rising social costs of negative externalities from growth, we include an amenity factor in the model. We assume that the social costs of growth rise by 0.033 percent each year. The amenity factor is introduced in the model through the wage 4 Source: Regional Transportation Commission. 15
equations, effectively causing real wages to fall relative to other regions. Falling wages means less economic migration, and population growth slows as the desirability of Clark County falls. D. Rebasing the population forecast In the past, we rebased the population forecast by adding the forecasted annual changes in population to the most recent population estimate. We rebase the population forecasts using the new population update feature in the REMI model. We update the population in 2012 based on the most recent information available for use from the SNRPC. The SNRPC consensus population estimate for Clark County in 2012 is 2.01 million. In addition, we update the population levels in 2013 and 2014 to reflect the population growth rate forecast from CBER s 2013 Economic Outlook published in December 2012. The latter adjustment is intended to incorporate the views of local economic experts at CBER in the short-term population forecasts. CBER predicts that the Clark County population will grow by 1.1 percent in 2013 and 1.5 percent in 2014. These population growth-rate forecasts translate to a forecasted population of 2.03 million in 2013 and 2.06 million in 2014. We use these forecasted population levels to update the population in the REMI model. IV. Analysis of the Economic and Demographic Forecast The forecast predicts moderate rates of population growth for Southern Nevada over the forecast period extending out to 2050. The rate of growth, which has been decidedly greater than the national average over the past fifty years, is beginning to moderate and move toward the national rate of growth. The economic forecast calls for the continuation of the economic recovery in 2013 and steady employment growth through 2015. Tables 4 16
through 6, respectively, report the population, employment, and Gross Regional Product (GRP) predictions for Clark County from the calibrated model. A. Population In the short term, the current forecast predicts moderate rates of population growth in Southern Nevada. The population in Clark County is predicted to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent in 2013 and 1.5 percent in 2014. The population growth rate declines in the medium term as the Clark County economy moves closer to maturity. By 2020, population growth is at 1.3 percent. By 2035, the population growth rate falls to 1.1 percent as the Clark County economy is expected to mature; and it reaches 1.0 percent, roughly twice the projected 5 long-term national population growth rate, by 2050. This pattern of long-term growth is expected as our economy matures and is very similar to previous forecasts. Clark County is forecasted to add roughly 22,000 new residents in 2013. CBER s 2013 Southern Nevada Economic Outlook predicts that population growth is likely to be moderate in the near term, and it will not be a driver of economic growth as it was throughout much of Las Vegas history. Rather, economic growth will drive population. The population forecast predicts that the Clark County population will be roughly 3.1 million by 2050. 5 Source: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012.html 17
Table 4: Population History, REMI Forecast, and Rebased Forecast 6 Year Population REMI Forecast* Population Rebased Forecast Change in Population Rebased Forecast Growth in Population Rebased Forecast 2012 1,995,000 2,008,654** 2013 2,019,000 2,031,000*** 22,000 1.1% 2014 2,046,000 2,061,000*** 30,000 1.5% 2015 2,076,000 2,085,000 24,000 1.2% 2016 2,108,000 2,111,000 26,000 1.2% 2017 2,140,000 2,138,000 27,000 1.3% 2018 2,173,000 2,167,000 29,000 1.3% 2019 2,206,000 2,196,000 29,000 1.3% 2020 2,239,000 2,224,000 28,000 1.3% 2021 2,271,000 2,253,000 29,000 1.3% 2022 2,302,000 2,281,000 28,000 1.2% 2023 2,334,000 2,309,000 28,000 1.2% 2024 2,365,000 2,337,000 28,000 1.2% 2025 2,396,000 2,365,000 28,000 1.2% 2026 2,427,000 2,393,000 28,000 1.2% 2027 2,458,000 2,421,000 28,000 1.2% 2028 2,488,000 2,449,000 28,000 1.2% 2029 2,519,000 2,477,000 28,000 1.2% 2030 2,550,000 2,506,000 29,000 1.2% 2031 2,581,000 2,534,000 28,000 1.1% 2032 2,612,000 2,562,000 28,000 1.1% 2033 2,643,000 2,591,000 29,000 1.1% 2034 2,674,000 2,619,000 28,000 1.1% 2035 2,705,000 2,648,000 29,000 1.1% 2040 2,862,000 2,793,000 30,000 1.1% 2045 3,027,000 2,946,000 31,000 1.1% 2050 3,198,000 3,104,000 32,000 1.0% *This forecast incorporates all the adjustments except rebasing. **SNRPC concensus population estimate. *** CBER 2012 Economic Outlook forecast 6 A table detailing the rebased population forecast appears in the Appendix Table A2. 18
B. Employment The forecast predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada in 2013. The Las Vegas economy is forecasted to add an additional 25,000 jobs in 2013, which represents a 2.3 percent growth in employment over 2012. Employment growth is predicted to be stronger in 2014 as the economy is predicted to add 32,000 new jobs. The forecast also predicts a continuation of steady employment growth in the near term. It is predicted that the Las Vegas economy will return to the 2007 peak employment level (1.18 million jobs) by 2015. Employment growth reaches a peak of 3.1 percent in 2015 and then eventually stabilizes at around 1 percent as the Southern Nevada economy reaches maturity. See Table 5. 7 7 Unadjusted employment forecasts are shown in the Appendix. 19
Table 5: Employment History and Forecasts Change in Growth in Employment- Year Employment Forecast Employment Forecast Employment Forecast Population Ratio Forecast** 2011 1,068,000* 2012 1,089,000 21,000 1.9% 0.54 2013 1,114,000 25,000 2.3% 0.55 2014 1,146,000 32,000 2.9% 0.56 2015 1,181,000 36,000 3.1% 0.57 2016 1,217,000 35,000 3.0% 0.58 2017 1,251,000 35,000 2.9% 0.59 2018 1,286,000 34,000 2.7% 0.59 2019 1,305,000 19,000 1.5% 0.59 2020 1,322,000 17,000 1.3% 0.59 2021 1,339,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2022 1,355,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2023 1,372,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2024 1,388,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2025 1,404,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2026 1,421,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2027 1,437,000 16,000 1.2% 0.59 2028 1,454,000 17,000 1.2% 0.59 2029 1,471,000 17,000 1.2% 0.59 2030 1,489,000 18,000 1.2% 0.59 2031 1,506,000 17,000 1.1% 0.59 2032 1,522,000 16,000 1.0% 0.59 2033 1,538,000 16,000 1.0% 0.59 2034 1,554,000 16,000 1.0% 0.59 2035 1,570,000 16,000 1.0% 0.59 2040 1,651,000 16,000 1.0% 0.59 2045 1,735,000 17,000 1.0% 0.59 2050 1,815,000 17,000 0.9% 0.58 *Actual employment. **The unrebased population forecast was used for consistency. C. Gross regional product Gross Regional Product (GRP) is defined as the dollar value of all final goods and services for sale in a regional economy. As such, it reflects the output of a local economy and avoids double-counting initial and intermediate goods. The forecast for growth in the 20
Clark County GRP, shown in Table 6, basically mirrors the growth pattern of local employment, but also reflects continued growth in productivity throughout the majority of the forecast. The GRP growth forecast starts at 2.9 percent in 2013, and climbs up to 4.6 percent in 2015. The GRP forecast finally stabilizes at around 2.2 percent as the Southern Nevada economy reaches maturity. 21
Table 6: Gross Regional Product History and Forecasts Year GRP (Billions of Chained 2005$) REMI Forecast Change in GRP (Billions of Chained 2005$) REMI Forecast Growth in GRP (Billions of Chained 2005$) REMI Forecast GRP per Capita (Chained 2005$) REMI Forecast 2011 83.92* 42,597 2012 86.96 3.05 3.60% 43,294 2013 89.48 2.51 2.90% 44,061 2014 93.21 3.74 4.20% 45,222 2015 97.48 4.26 4.60% 46,750 2016 101.79 4.31 4.40% 48,220 2017 106.17 4.38 4.30% 49,649 2018 110.60 4.44 4.20% 51,037 2019 113.87 3.27 3.00% 51,858 2020 117.06 3.18 2.80% 52,623 2021 120.26 3.20 2.70% 53,385 2022 123.49 3.23 2.70% 54,145 2023 126.78 3.29 2.70% 54,914 2024 130.11 3.33 2.60% 55,681 2025 133.50 3.39 2.60% 56,455 2026 136.97 3.47 2.60% 57,246 2027 140.54 3.56 2.60% 58,055 2028 144.26 3.72 2.60% 58,910 2029 148.09 3.83 2.70% 59,786 2030 152.07 3.98 2.70% 60,694 2031 155.70 3.63 2.40% 61,445 2032 159.41 3.71 2.40% 62,211 2033 163.20 3.79 2.40% 62,992 2034 167.06 3.86 2.40% 63,782 2035 171.01 3.95 2.40% 64,582 2040 191.96 4.31 2.30% 68,717 2045 215.32 4.72 2.20% 73,089 2050 241.37 5.25 2.20% 77,756 *Actual GRP. 22
V. Comparing Current Forecast with Previous Years of the Forecast This section compares this year s final population growth forecasts with the final population growth forecasts from previous years. This exercise allows us to assess the consistency of the forecast methodology and to assess the variability in the population growth forecasts over the last eight years. Figure 3 shows the population-growth-rate forecasts obtained from 2006 to 2013. Figure 3 also shows the standard deviation of the population-growth-rate forecast in the last 13 years (2001-2013). 8 The populationgrowth-rate forecasts exhibit a high level of variability in the near term. The standard deviation of the population-growth-rate forecast for the year 2013 is roughly 1 percent. This reflects a high degree of uncertainty in the short-term forecast (see Section VI). The variability among the population-growth-rate forecasts falls dramatically in the long term. By 2030, the forecasted growth rates converge to about 1.2 percent, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent. Hence, there is a large degree of consistency in the long-term growth predictions obtained during the last 13 years, as evidenced by the low standard deviation among the forecasts. This observation further confirms the fact that our forecasts are primarily meant to be long-run planning tools. 8 The standard deviation is a measure of the variability among data points. For data that follow a normal distribution, 99.7 percent of data points will fall within approximately 3 standard deviations of the mean. 23
Figure 3: Clark County Historic Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: 2013-2035 VI. Risks to the Forecast Our Southern Nevada population forecasts rest on economic and demographic models set in the context of a structured framework. This structure keeps our long-term forecasts consistent with our objectives. We have separated the long-term trend from the noise that one finds in time-series data. These noise factors include the business cycle and seasonal and irregular events. The main risks to the short-term population forecast arise from short-term fluctuations in both U.S. and Southern Nevada economic conditions. At mid-2013, the U.S. economy faces considerable uncertainty. Among the more visible uncertainties are fiscal policy, the weak European and Asian economies, possible oil price shocks, and the 24
impact of greatly improved private-sector balance sheets. The Southern Nevada economy is based on the idea that improving economic conditions in the United States, particularly in the West, will benefit the Southern Nevada economy. The Southern Nevada economy could see slower growth if the U.S. economy proves weaker than we have forecast. If and when growth of the U.S. economy suddenly accelerates, the Southern Nevada economy will be much stronger. A stronger Southern Nevada economy could mean a return of the Hispanic migrant population which left as a result of the economic recession. This would result in higher population growth rates than those we are seeing in the current forecast. The reliability of the long-term forecast hinges on the new growth path that will emerge from the recent economic recession. As the current employment figures show, the recovery from the recent recession is slower in Southern Nevada as compared to the national economy. The Las Vegas unemployment rate was 9.8 percent in April 2013, compared to the U.S. unemployment rate of 7.5. The recent recession also may have caused a structural change in consumer spending habits. While the Las Vegas visitor volume has exceeded the levels seen before the recession, it is becoming clear that visitors seem to be gambling less and purchasing less from the retail shops at casinos. As a result, the spending for each visitor may remain at a lower level than during the boom period, and it may be some time before consumers return to earlier spending levels. Therefore, although we feel the population forecasts are sound, there are significant risks to the forecasts that could lead to either over- or underestimated growth. We say again, however, that these risks tend to arise from short-term uncertainty; whereas, our forecasts are primarily meant to be long-term planning tools. 25
VII. Conclusion The latest REMI model projects long-term population growth patterns that are consistent with previous population forecasts. Overall, the population growth forecast is less than last year s forecast. This is a reflection of the new data incorporated into the model that take into account the recent economic recession. We note that, despite short-term economic uncertainties and model difficulties, the long-term population forecast, which is the main focus of this forecasting exercise, remains consistent with past forecasts. By 2035, we predict that Clark County s population will be about 2.65 million. In 2050, Clark County is expected to have nearly 3.1 million residents. The model continues to predict changes in the economy as the county grows and matures. Thus, the breakneck percentage annual growth rates seen in the past two decades are expected to moderate over the long term. 26
Appendix: Detailed Report Tables 27
Table A1: Out-of-the-Box Clark County Population and Population Growth Forecasts from REMI Models LHY2011 and LHY2009 Year LHY2011 Population (Thousands) LHY2009 Population (Thousands) LHY2011 Population Growth LHY2009 Population Growth 2011 1,970 1,984 2012 1,995 2,027 1.3% 2.2% 2013 2,019 2,074 1.2% 2.3% 2014 2,046 2,124 1.3% 2.4% 2015 2,076 2,175 1.5% 2.4% 2016 2,108 2,227 1.5% 2.4% 2017 2,140 2,279 1.5% 2.4% 2018 2,173 2,332 1.6% 2.3% 2019 2,206 2,380 1.5% 2.0% 2020 2,239 2,424 1.5% 1.8% 2021 2,271 2,464 1.4% 1.7% 2022 2,302 2,502 1.4% 1.5% 2023 2,334 2,538 1.4% 1.4% 2024 2,365 2,572 1.3% 1.4% 2025 2,396 2,605 1.3% 1.3% 2026 2,427 2,637 1.3% 1.2% 2027 2,458 2,669 1.3% 1.2% 2028 2,488 2,701 1.3% 1.2% 2029 2,519 2,731 1.2% 1.1% 2030 2,550 2,762 1.2% 1.1% 2031 2,581 2,793 1.2% 1.1% 2032 2,612 2,823 1.2% 1.1% 2033 2,643 2,854 1.2% 1.1% 2034 2,674 2,884 1.2% 1.1% 2035 2,705 2,915 1.2% 1.1% 2039 3,039 3,039 1.0% 1.0% 2040 2,862 3,071 1.1% 1.0% 2044 3,198 3,198 1.0% 1.0% 2045 3,027 3,230 1.1% 1.0% 2049 3,356 3,356 0.9% 0.9% 2050 3,198 3,386 1.1% 0.9% Note: Out-of-the-box refers to the model prior to recalibration. These numbers are not the final forecast. 28
Table A2: Detailed Final Population Forecast: 2000 2050 Year Population Forecast Change in Population Forecast Growth in Population (Percent) 2000 1,428,689* 107,513 8.1% 2001 1,498,278* 69,589 4.9% 2002 1,578,332* 80,054 5.3% 2003 1,641,529* 63,197 4.0% 2004 1,747,025* 105,496 6.4% 2005 1,815,700* 68,675 3.9% 2006 1,912,654* 96,954 5.3% 2007 1,996,542* 83,888 4.4% 2008 1,986,145* -10,397-0.5% 2009 2,006,347* 20,202 1.0% 2010 1,951,269** -55,078-2.7% 2011 1,966,630* 15,361 0.8% 2012 2,008,654* 42,024 2.1% 2013 2,031,000*** 22,346 1.1% 2014 2,061,000*** 30,000 1.5% 2015 2,085,000 24,000 1.2% 2016 2,111,000 26,000 1.2% 2017 2,138,000 27,000 1.3% 2018 2,167,000 29,000 1.4% 2019 2,196,000 29,000 1.3% 2020 2,224,000 28,000 1.3% 2021 2,253,000 29,000 1.3% 2022 2,281,000 28,000 1.2% 2023 2,309,000 28,000 1.2% 2024 2,337,000 28,000 1.2% 2025 2,365,000 28,000 1.2% 2026 2,393,000 28,000 1.2% 2027 2,421,000 28,000 1.2% 2028 2,449,000 28,000 1.2% 2029 2,477,000 28,000 1.1% 2030 2,506,000 29,000 1.2% 2031 2,534,000 28,000 1.1% 2032 2,562,000 28,000 1.1% 2033 2,591,000 29,000 1.1% 2034 2,619,000 28,000 1.1% 2035 2,648,000 29,000 1.1% 2036 2,677,000 29,000 1.1% 2037 2,706,000 29,000 1.1% 2038 2,735,000 29,000 1.1% 2039 2,764,000 29,000 1.1% 2040 2,793,000 29,000 1.0% 2041 2,823,000 30,000 1.1% 2042 2,853,000 30,000 1.1% 2043 2,884,000 31,000 1.1% 2044 2,915,000 31,000 1.1% 2045 2,946,000 31,000 1.1% 2046 2,977,000 31,000 1.1% 2047 3,009,000 32,000 1.1% 2048 3,040,000 31,000 1.0% 2049 3,072,000 32,000 1.1% 2050 3,104,000 32,000 1.0% * SNRPC consensus population estimate. ** 2010 U.S. Census. *** CBER 2012 Economic Outlook forecast. Note: The average annual forecasted growth rate is 1.2 percent. 29
Table A3: Economic Forecast after Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Employment (in 000s) 1113.574 1145.668 1181.241 1216.515 1251.396 1285.547 1304.888 1322.260 1338.733 Total Employment as % of Nation 0.616 0.622 0.628 0.634 0.639 0.643 0.647 0.650 0.653 Private Non-Farm Employment (000s) 1007.519 1039.580 1074.403 1108.933 1143.063 1176.443 1195.471 1212.480 1228.619 Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.651 0.657 0.663 0.669 0.673 0.677 0.681 0.684 0.686 Gross Domestic Product (billions of fixed 2005 $) 89.471 93.202 97.459 101.762 106.138 110.567 113.833 117.011 120.212 Personal Income (billions of current $) 74.518 78.908 83.784 89.191 95.008 101.193 106.510 111.929 117.625 Personal Income as % of Nation 0.542 0.545 0.548 0.552 0.556 0.560 0.564 0.567 0.570 Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 2005 $) 67.117 70.671 74.831 79.668 84.870 90.399 95.154 100.002 105.097 PCE-Price Index (2005=100) 112.058 113.436 115.190 117.428 119.802 122.300 124.816 127.342 129.986 Real Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 59.895 62.300 64.963 67.844 70.842 73.916 76.235 78.530 80.853 2005 $) Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.578 0.583 0.588 0.593 0.598 0.602 0.607 0.610 0.614 Population (unrebased forecast, in 000s) 2030.748 2061.210 2085.062 2110.889 2138.381 2167.128 2195.893 2224.424 2252.620 Population as % of Nation 0.642 0.647 0.650 0.653 0.657 0.661 0.665 0.669 0.672 Table A3: Economic Forecast after Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Employment (in 000s) 1355.184 1371.657 1388.037 1404.191 1420.536 1436.941 1454.026 1471.271 1489.195 Total Employment as % of Nation 0.655 0.657 0.659 0.661 0.663 0.665 0.666 0.668 0.671 Private Non-Farm Employment (000s) 1244.745 1260.872 1276.935 1292.780 1308.800 1324.868 1341.563 1358.392 1375.851 Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.688 0.690 0.692 0.693 0.695 0.697 0.699 0.700 0.702 Gross Domestic Product (billions of fixed 2005 $) 123.441 126.734 130.063 133.454 136.933 140.501 144.227 148.065 152.052 Personal Income (billions of current $) 123.585 129.777 136.292 143.147 150.299 157.848 165.755 174.118 183.025 Personal Income as % of Nation 0.572 0.575 0.577 0.580 0.583 0.585 0.588 0.591 0.594 Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 2005 $) 110.427 115.963 121.790 127.920 134.317 141.070 148.144 155.627 163.599 PCE-Price Index (2005=100) 132.727 135.471 138.316 141.263 144.216 147.271 150.332 153.497 156.766 Real Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 83.199 85.600 88.051 90.555 93.136 95.789 98.544 101.388 104.358 2005 $) Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.616 0.619 0.622 0.625 0.627 0.630 0.633 0.636 0.639 Population (unrebased forecast, in 000s) 2280.690 2308.718 2336.647 2364.639 2392.678 2420.701 2448.765 2476.973 2505.507 Population as % of Nation 0.676 0.679 0.683 0.686 0.689 0.693 0.696 0.699 0.703 30
Table A3: Economic Forecast after Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total Employment (in 000s) 1569.755 1650.502 1734.625 1815.102 Total Employment as % of Nation 0.681 0.689 0.696 0.701 Private Non-Farm Employment (000s) 1455.655 1535.567 1618.439 1696.832 Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.712 0.719 0.724 0.729 Gross Domestic Product (billions of fixed 2005 $) 171.040 192.040 215.472 241.613 Personal Income (billions of current $) 231.669 292.962 369.867 464.933 Personal Income as % of Nation 0.611 0.628 0.644 0.658 Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 2005 $) 207.168 262.134 331.148 416.481 PCE-Price Index (2005=100) 174.142 193.505 215.035 238.769 Real Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 2005 $) 118.965 135.466 153.997 174.428 Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.657 0.674 0.691 0.705 Population (unrebased forecast, in 000s) 2647.993 2793.447 2945.916 3104.183 Population as % of Nation 0.721 0.740 0.760 0.781 31
Table A4: Employment (in 000s) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Employment 1113.576 1145.669 1181.241 1216.514 1251.396 1285.547 1304.888 1322.260 1338.733 Total Employment as Share of Nation 0.616 0.622 0.628 0.634 0.639 0.643 0.647 0.650 0.653 Private Non-Farm 1007.520 1039.581 1074.403 1108.933 1143.063 1176.443 1195.471 1212.479 1228.619 Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.336 0.342 0.346 0.350 0.354 0.357 0.358 0.359 0.360 Mining 2.365 2.358 2.372 2.392 2.418 2.447 2.466 2.484 2.495 Utilities 2.867 2.865 2.870 2.877 2.889 2.901 2.893 2.882 2.863 Construction 49.786 54.829 60.105 65.415 70.680 75.716 78.855 81.177 83.203 Manufacturing 21.464 21.584 21.839 22.127 22.453 22.788 22.876 22.910 22.845 Wholesale Trade 25.889 26.518 27.273 28.054 28.856 29.667 30.077 30.461 30.859 Retail Trade 118.749 122.127 126.351 130.457 134.414 138.171 139.885 141.150 142.107 Transportation and Warehousing 39.331 40.228 41.216 42.279 43.416 44.639 45.424 46.324 47.221 Information 13.388 13.536 13.741 13.919 14.073 14.207 14.112 14.004 13.901 Finance and Insurance 65.015 66.142 67.302 68.482 69.700 70.970 71.611 72.347 73.040 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 76.257 77.713 79.215 80.750 82.271 83.756 84.484 85.069 85.684 Professional and Technical Services 58.521 60.390 62.624 64.934 67.291 69.666 71.275 72.824 74.352 Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 17.691 18.010 18.386 18.753 19.119 19.484 19.559 19.649 19.720 Admin and Waste Services 81.836 84.266 86.992 89.718 92.430 95.109 96.744 98.274 99.789 Educational Services 11.275 11.602 11.946 12.293 12.647 13.001 13.267 13.519 13.770 Health Care and Social Assistance 82.134 85.356 88.605 91.960 95.437 99.094 102.037 105.180 108.298 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 35.142 36.008 36.927 37.838 38.750 39.662 40.192 40.716 41.209 Accommodation and Food Services 256.286 264.959 274.015 282.610 290.766 298.409 302.292 305.528 308.488 Other Services, except Govt 49.189 50.749 52.278 53.726 55.099 56.401 57.063 57.622 58.416 Government 105.829 105.862 106.612 107.356 108.108 108.878 109.193 109.557 109.892 State and Local 80.936 81.599 82.415 83.222 84.024 84.826 85.261 85.707 86.099 Federal Civilian 11.408 11.342 11.343 11.344 11.354 11.376 11.322 11.297 11.299 Federal Military 13.485 12.921 12.854 12.790 12.730 12.676 12.610 12.553 12.494 Farm 0.227 0.226 0.226 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.224 0.223 0.222 32
Table A4: Employment (in 000s) continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Employment 1355.184 1371.657 1388.037 1404.191 1420.536 1436.941 1454.026 1471.271 1489.195 Total Employment as % of Nation 0.655 0.657 0.659 0.661 0.663 0.665 0.666 0.668 0.671 Private Non-Farm 1244.745 1260.872 1276.935 1292.780 1308.800 1324.868 1341.563 1358.392 1375.851 Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.358 0.355 0.351 0.345 0.338 0.331 0.323 0.313 0.302 Mining 2.499 2.496 2.485 2.464 2.435 2.397 2.344 2.281 2.209 Utilities 2.840 2.813 2.780 2.749 2.710 2.670 2.627 2.587 2.542 Construction 85.241 87.203 89.098 90.918 92.694 94.424 96.146 97.835 99.531 Manufacturing 22.769 22.716 22.651 22.576 22.489 22.423 22.449 22.457 22.458 Wholesale Trade 31.277 31.710 32.163 32.625 33.113 33.618 34.161 34.724 35.323 Retail Trade 143.003 143.819 144.597 145.292 146.001 146.677 147.403 148.133 148.957 Transportation and Warehousing 48.134 49.054 49.979 50.914 51.866 52.843 53.855 54.893 55.968 Information 13.797 13.701 13.611 13.526 13.451 13.385 13.336 13.295 13.272 Finance and Insurance 73.668 74.271 74.832 75.334 75.801 76.224 76.617 76.958 77.256 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 86.268 86.872 87.482 88.098 88.738 89.387 90.084 90.797 91.566 Professional and Technical Services 75.849 77.368 78.906 80.460 82.053 83.701 85.440 87.240 89.134 Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 19.794 19.874 19.960 20.052 20.158 20.276 20.412 20.558 20.722 Admin and Waste Services 101.344 102.981 104.666 106.435 108.305 110.298 112.445 114.767 117.253 Educational Services 14.024 14.270 14.512 14.741 14.963 15.173 15.377 15.560 15.741 Health Care and Social Assistance 111.474 114.715 118.004 121.335 124.708 128.072 131.488 134.917 138.407 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 41.714 42.227 42.752 43.278 43.824 44.374 44.953 45.543 46.166 Accommodation and Food Services 311.519 314.519 317.482 320.342 323.206 326.041 328.949 331.827 334.787 Other Services, except Govt 59.173 59.909 60.624 61.296 61.948 62.554 63.154 63.707 64.257 Government 110.218 110.565 110.883 111.193 111.520 111.858 112.249 112.666 113.133 State and Local 86.444 86.765 87.046 87.307 87.567 87.822 88.112 88.410 88.739 Federal Civilian 11.315 11.344 11.387 11.445 11.521 11.614 11.726 11.857 12.007 Federal Military 12.459 12.456 12.450 12.441 12.432 12.422 12.411 12.399 12.387 Farm 0.221 0.220 0.219 0.218 0.216 0.215 0.214 0.212 0.211 33
Table A4: Employment (in 000s) continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total Employment 1569.755 1650.502 1734.625 1815.102 Total Employment as % of Nation 0.681 0.689 0.696 0.701 Private Non-Farm 1455.655 1535.567 1618.440 1696.832 Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.251 0.223 0.216 0.221 Mining 1.750 1.810 1.888 1.965 Utilities 2.301 2.059 1.831 1.612 Construction 107.947 117.618 128.638 138.352 Manufacturing 22.326 21.950 21.362 20.327 Wholesale Trade 38.127 40.798 43.382 45.701 Retail Trade 152.110 154.504 156.169 156.346 Transportation and Warehousing 61.206 66.637 72.429 78.398 Information 13.053 12.789 12.510 12.205 Finance and Insurance 77.949 78.114 77.996 77.439 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 94.969 98.527 102.487 106.371 Professional and Technical Services 98.362 107.504 116.668 125.559 Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 21.276 21.580 21.698 21.587 Admin and Waste Services 129.410 141.649 154.411 167.267 Educational Services 16.476 17.136 17.808 18.382 Health Care and Social Assistance 156.009 175.560 197.686 221.883 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 49.069 52.033 55.148 58.232 Accommodation and Food Services 346.685 357.172 367.205 375.882 Other Services, except Govt 66.380 67.903 68.910 69.103 Government 113.899 114.743 116.002 118.095 State and Local 89.065 89.276 89.666 90.332 Federal Civilian 12.683 13.535 14.596 16.169 Federal Military 12.151 11.932 11.740 11.594 Farm 0.201 0.192 0.183 0.175 34
Table A5: Employment II (in 000s) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Private Non-Farm 1007.520 1039.581 1074.403 1108.933 1143.063 1176.443 1195.471 1212.479 1228.619 Intermediate Demand 218.218 224.505 231.267 237.891 243.948 249.834 252.634 254.711 257.270 Local Consumption Demand 361.616 371.342 382.027 392.684 403.297 413.929 420.506 426.772 432.615 Government Demand 9.619 9.706 9.682 9.733 9.527 9.570 9.597 9.634 9.751 Investment Activity Demand 40.472 46.211 51.729 57.628 62.282 67.921 71.644 74.672 78.074 Exports to Multi-regions 4.405 4.496 4.594 4.695 4.795 4.895 4.937 4.973 5.009 Exports to Rest of Nation 347.402 357.164 367.607 377.742 387.567 396.918 401.502 405.400 409.080 Exports to Rest of World 29.464 30.967 32.490 34.181 35.732 37.795 39.278 41.114 42.717 Exogenous Industry Sales 2.036 1.058 1.206 0.814 2.914 2.811 2.714 2.623 1.428 Exogenous Industry Demand -5.710-5.868-6.199-6.434-6.999-7.230-7.342-7.420-7.324 Table A5: Employment II (in 000s) continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Private Non-Farm 1244.745 1260.872 1276.935 1292.780 1308.800 1324.868 1341.563 1358.392 1375.851 Intermediate Demand 259.667 262.147 264.724 267.502 270.516 274.026 278.135 282.798 288.107 Local Consumption Demand 438.419 444.151 449.822 455.239 460.576 465.575 470.469 475.044 479.548 Government Demand 9.774 9.797 9.815 9.827 9.734 9.740 9.743 9.739 9.730 Investment Activity Demand 80.901 83.735 86.580 89.416 91.523 94.392 97.298 100.210 103.164 Exports to Multi-regions 5.045 5.081 5.116 5.150 5.182 5.214 5.249 5.280 5.312 Exports to Rest of Nation 412.726 416.319 419.777 423.082 426.316 429.529 432.842 436.092 439.377 Exports to Rest of World 44.215 45.738 47.279 48.819 50.210 51.748 53.280 54.775 56.249 Exogenous Industry Sales 1.380 1.334 1.290 1.246 2.437 2.353 2.272 2.191 2.112 Exogenous Industry Demand -7.383-7.430-7.470-7.501-7.694-7.710-7.725-7.737-7.748 35
Table A5: Employment II (in 000s) continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Private Non-Farm 1455.655 1535.567 1618.440 1696.832 Intermediate Demand 313.659 340.941 370.747 400.573 Local Consumption Demand 499.526 519.494 540.259 559.272 Government Demand 9.689 9.589 9.470 9.361 Investment Activity Demand 118.833 133.161 146.207 157.622 Exports to Multi-regions 5.428 5.520 5.634 5.754 Exports to Rest of Nation 451.849 463.347 474.694 484.592 Exports to Rest of World 63.514 71.048 79.032 87.325 Exogenous Industry Sales 0.755 0.000 0.000 0.000 Exogenous Industry Demand -7.598-7.534-7.604-7.668 36
Table A6: Gross Regional Product (Billions of fixed 2005 $) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Personal Consumption Expenditures 68.311 71.063 74.217 77.374 80.560 83.800 86.198 88.520 90.850 93.193 95.543 97.980 Vehicle & parts 3.013 3.162 3.365 3.570 3.791 4.015 4.175 4.333 4.493 4.660 4.816 4.990 Computers & furniture 2.372 2.519 2.679 2.835 2.989 3.140 3.250 3.350 3.450 3.548 3.647 3.750 Other durables 5.907 6.578 7.407 8.259 9.131 10.002 10.622 11.167 11.724 12.291 12.887 13.508 Food & beverages 4.614 4.726 4.832 4.936 5.043 5.150 5.235 5.321 5.404 5.486 5.568 5.651 Clothing & shoes 2.298 2.391 2.522 2.650 2.778 2.905 2.994 3.079 3.164 3.250 3.338 3.429 Gasoline & oil 1.548 1.561 1.611 1.661 1.692 1.746 1.777 1.809 1.843 1.878 1.892 1.929 Fuel oil & coal 0.038 0.039 0.042 0.045 0.047 0.049 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.049 0.049 Other non-durables 4.943 5.096 5.296 5.497 5.704 5.919 6.085 6.254 6.426 6.596 6.769 6.946 Housing 11.536 11.788 12.050 12.302 12.542 12.775 12.947 13.104 13.259 13.410 13.559 13.708 Household operation 1.261 1.256 1.252 1.252 1.257 1.266 1.278 1.296 1.313 1.330 1.346 1.362 Transportation 1.916 1.974 2.035 2.101 2.171 2.248 2.309 2.379 2.450 2.521 2.592 2.664 Medical care 10.454 10.888 11.338 11.788 12.246 12.721 13.092 13.481 13.872 14.270 14.675 15.086 Other services 18.411 19.085 19.786 20.478 21.169 21.864 22.386 22.896 23.402 23.903 24.404 24.909 Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment 10.792 11.949 13.204 14.526 15.736 17.089 18.055 18.938 19.917 20.833 21.774 22.744 Residential 2.229 2.817 3.343 3.907 4.385 4.940 5.322 5.627 5.983 6.288 6.596 6.911 Nonresidential structures 1.812 1.978 2.214 2.461 2.648 2.873 3.026 3.144 3.289 3.402 3.522 3.642 Nonresidential equipment 6.751 7.153 7.647 8.158 8.703 9.276 9.706 10.167 10.645 11.143 11.655 12.191 Change in Private Inventories 0.083 0.140 0.170 0.202 0.234 0.267 0.288 0.304 0.319 0.335 0.351 0.367 Exogenous Final Demand 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Government Consumption Expenditures 12.096 12.109 12.204 12.341 12.321 12.450 12.566 12.693 12.872 12.975 13.086 13.193 Federal Military 4.493 4.351 4.360 4.372 4.375 4.388 4.404 4.425 4.449 4.460 4.478 4.494 Federal Civilian 1.336 1.337 1.341 1.349 1.349 1.357 1.364 1.373 1.384 1.392 1.401 1.409 State and Local Government 6.266 6.422 6.503 6.620 6.597 6.705 6.798 6.895 7.039 7.123 7.207 7.290 Total Exports 55.414 57.767 60.588 63.340 66.385 69.213 71.174 73.095 74.872 76.867 78.852 80.934 Total Imports 57.218 59.815 62.906 65.996 69.067 72.213 74.404 76.490 78.566 80.708 82.815 85.097 37
Table A6: Gross Regional Product (Billions of fixed 2005 $) continued Variable 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2035 2040 2045 2050 Personal Consumption Expenditures 100.451 102.983 105.583 108.270 111.043 113.925 116.596 127.919 143.709 161.407 181.140 Vehicle & parts 5.157 5.333 5.516 5.713 5.904 6.109 6.297 7.124 8.223 9.364 10.479 Computers & furniture 3.853 3.958 4.067 4.181 4.297 4.420 4.533 5.009 5.648 6.337 7.075 Other durables 14.154 14.834 15.535 16.290 17.064 17.895 18.707 22.287 27.482 33.452 40.280 Food & beverages 5.734 5.819 5.904 5.989 6.077 6.168 6.248 6.572 7.022 7.534 8.106 Clothing & shoes 3.518 3.611 3.703 3.800 3.901 4.002 4.094 4.489 5.024 5.626 6.299 Gasoline & oil 1.969 1.985 2.028 2.045 2.091 2.110 2.153 2.243 2.385 2.534 2.687 Fuel oil & coal 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.048 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.045 0.042 0.040 0.037 Other non-durables 7.127 7.313 7.502 7.698 7.900 8.111 8.305 9.138 10.301 11.613 13.101 Housing 13.854 14.006 14.157 14.310 14.467 14.632 14.761 15.323 16.152 17.138 18.286 Household operation 1.378 1.394 1.410 1.426 1.442 1.459 1.473 1.527 1.600 1.680 1.765 Transportation 2.737 2.811 2.886 2.961 3.038 3.117 3.188 3.478 3.855 4.246 4.653 Medical care 15.506 15.936 16.371 16.818 17.278 17.753 18.187 20.013 22.533 25.392 28.654 Other services 25.414 25.934 26.456 26.991 27.535 28.101 28.602 30.672 33.441 36.452 39.718 Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment 23.736 24.675 25.742 26.862 28.022 29.238 30.524 35.674 42.672 50.193 58.371 Residential 7.234 7.501 7.845 8.204 8.578 8.970 9.428 11.086 13.403 15.839 18.335 Nonresidential structures 3.761 3.861 3.993 4.128 4.279 4.428 4.610 5.241 5.901 6.541 7.232 Nonresidential equipment 12.741 13.314 13.904 14.530 15.165 15.840 16.486 19.347 23.369 27.813 32.805 Change in Private Inventories 0.382 0.398 0.413 0.428 0.443 0.457 0.469 0.512 0.546 0.556 0.540 Exogenous Final Demand 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Government Consumption Expenditures 13.300 13.342 13.448 13.567 13.672 13.798 13.933 14.255 14.720 15.219 15.817 Federal Military 4.511 4.522 4.534 4.552 4.560 4.581 4.582 4.591 4.610 4.637 4.676 Federal Civilian 1.418 1.424 1.432 1.442 1.451 1.461 1.468 1.492 1.530 1.574 1.632 State and Local Government 7.372 7.397 7.482 7.572 7.662 7.756 7.882 8.172 8.581 9.008 9.509 Total Exports 83.087 85.415 87.758 90.180 92.800 95.490 97.866 108.377 122.808 139.196 157.911 Total Imports 87.445 89.822 92.385 95.022 97.857 100.799 103.638 115.647 132.374 151.066 172.142 38
Table A7: Income (Billions of current $) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Personal income 74.396 78.742 83.658 89.092 94.925 101.120 106.445 111.869 117.567 Personal income as % of nation 0.541 0.544 0.548 0.552 0.556 0.559 0.563 0.567 0.569 Total earnings by place of work 54.269 56.972 60.428 64.252 68.374 72.773 76.521 80.317 84.310 Total wage and salary disbursements 39.120 41.113 43.645 46.402 49.378 52.553 55.263 58.008 60.897 Supplements to wages and salaries 9.580 10.070 10.674 11.409 12.191 13.017 13.727 14.444 15.196 Employer contributions for employee 6.599 6.943 7.364 7.876 8.419 8.994 9.488 9.987 10.510 pension and insurance funds Employer contributions for government 2.981 3.128 3.310 3.534 3.772 4.023 4.239 4.457 4.686 social insurance Proprietors' income with inventory valuation 5.569 5.789 6.109 6.440 6.805 7.203 7.532 7.865 8.218 and capital consumption adjustments Less: Contributions for government social 6.037 6.357 6.745 7.190 7.666 8.171 8.604 9.042 9.502 insurance Employee and self-employed contributions 3.056 3.229 3.435 3.656 3.894 4.148 4.365 4.585 4.816 for government social insurance Employer contributions for government 2.981 3.128 3.310 3.534 3.772 4.023 4.239 4.457 4.686 social insurance Plus: Adjustment for residence -0.560-0.587-0.620-0.658-0.697-0.739-0.769-0.800-0.833 Gross in 0.784 0.823 0.871 0.923 0.980 1.041 1.095 1.149 1.206 Gross out 1.344 1.409 1.491 1.581 1.677 1.780 1.863 1.949 2.039 Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 47.672 50.029 53.063 56.405 60.011 63.862 67.148 70.476 73.974 Plus: Rental, personal interest, and personal 14.074 15.244 16.232 17.327 18.495 19.727 20.794 21.890 23.040 dividend income Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 12.649 13.469 14.364 15.360 16.419 17.531 18.502 19.503 20.552 Equals: Personal income 74.396 78.742 83.658 89.092 94.925 101.120 106.445 111.869 117.567 Less: Personal current taxes 7.396 8.230 8.950 9.523 10.140 10.796 11.359 11.930 12.530 Equals: disposable personal income 67.000 70.512 74.708 79.568 84.786 90.324 95.086 99.939 105.037 Real personal income 66.393 69.410 72.624 75.861 79.223 82.669 85.268 87.837 90.435 Real disposable personal income 59.793 62.155 64.854 67.752 70.761 73.843 76.169 78.470 80.796 PCE-price index 112.053 113.445 115.194 117.441 119.820 122.319 124.836 127.360 130.002 Real personal income with housing price 69.849 72.957 76.266 79.599 83.063 86.614 89.277 91.910 94.579 Real Disposable personal income with housing 62.905 65.331 68.107 71.090 74.190 77.366 79.751 82.109 84.498 price PCE-price index with housing price 106.509 107.930 109.693 111.926 114.281 116.748 119.229 121.715 124.306 Relative housing price 0.654 0.656 0.659 0.662 0.665 0.668 0.671 0.674 0.676 39
Table A7: Income (Billions of current $) continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Personal income 123.528 129.718 136.231 143.082 150.231 157.775 165.678 174.037 182.939 Personal income as % of nation 0.572 0.575 0.577 0.580 0.582 0.585 0.588 0.591 0.594 Total earnings by place of work 88.511 92.878 97.47 102.297 107.321 112.61 118.149 123.993 130.19 Total wage and salary disbursements 63.936 67.093 70.412 73.899 77.528 81.346 85.344 89.561 94.032 Supplements to wages and salaries 15.983 16.799 17.654 18.551 19.481 20.459 21.482 22.558 23.697 Employer contributions for employee 11.057 11.625 12.22 12.843 13.49 14.17 14.881 15.629 16.421 pension and insurance funds Employer contributions for government 4.926 5.174 5.435 5.708 5.991 6.289 6.601 6.929 7.276 social insurance Proprietors' income with inventory valuation 8.593 8.986 9.404 9.847 10.312 10.805 11.324 11.873 12.46 and capital consumption adjustments Less: Contributions for government social 9.985 10.486 11.012 11.564 12.137 12.74 13.371 14.036 14.74 insurance Employee and self-employed contributions 5.059 5.312 5.577 5.856 6.146 6.451 6.77 7.107 7.465 for government social insurance Employer contributions for government 4.926 5.174 5.435 5.708 5.991 6.289 6.601 6.929 7.276 social insurance Plus: Adjustment for residence -0.871-0.911-0.953-0.999-1.046-1.096-1.149-1.206-1.268 Gross in 1.265 1.326 1.389 1.456 1.524 1.597 1.672 1.751 1.833 Gross out 2.136 2.236 2.342 2.454 2.571 2.693 2.821 2.957 3.101 Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 77.655 81.482 85.506 89.735 94.138 98.774 103.629 108.75 114.181 Plus: Rental, personal interest, and personal 24.237 25.478 26.785 28.16 29.598 31.119 32.710 34.398 36.202 dividend income Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 21.635 22.757 23.94 25.187 26.495 27.883 29.339 30.889 32.556 Equals: Personal income 123.528 129.718 136.231 143.082 150.231 157.775 165.678 174.037 182.939 Less: Personal current taxes 13.16 13.815 14.503 15.227 15.982 16.777 17.61 18.489 19.423 Equals: disposable personal income 110.367 115.903 121.727 127.855 134.249 140.998 148.068 155.548 163.516 Real personal income 93.059 95.744 98.484 101.282 104.165 107.129 110.205 113.38 116.695 Real disposable personal income 83.144 85.547 88.000 90.503 93.084 95.737 98.491 101.335 104.305 PCE-price index 132.742 135.484 138.327 141.271 144.224 147.276 150.336 153.499 156.767 Real personal income with housing price 97.277 100.041 102.863 105.746 108.721 111.779 114.957 118.238 121.666 Real Disposable personal income with housing 86.913 89.386 91.912 94.492 97.155 99.893 102.739 105.677 108.748 price PCE-price index with housing price 126.986 129.665 132.439 135.307 138.181 141.149 144.122 147.192 150.362 Relative housing price 0.679 0.681 0.683 0.685 0.688 0.690 0.692 0.694 0.696 40
Table A7: Income (Billions of current $) continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Personal income 231.550 292.799 369.626 464.532 Personal income as % of nation 0.611 0.627 0.644 0.657 Total earnings by place of work 163.620 204.892 256.013 318.83 Total wage and salary disbursements 118.143 147.99 185.001 230.583 Supplements to wages and salaries 29.834 37.435 46.870 58.504 Employer contributions for employee pension and 20.689 25.975 32.538 40.632 insurance funds Employer contributions for government social 9.145 11.46 14.332 17.873 insurance Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital 15.643 19.467 24.142 29.743 consumption adjustments Less: Contributions for government social insurance 18.537 23.238 29.070 36.256 Employee and self-employed contributions for 9.392 11.778 14.738 18.384 government social insurance Employer contributions for government social insurance 9.145 11.46 14.332 17.873 Plus: Adjustment for residence -1.607-2.046-2.599-3.258 Gross in 2.273 2.812 3.479 4.311 Gross out 3.880 4.858 6.078 7.569 Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 143.476 179.609 224.345 279.316 Plus: Rental, personal interest, and personal dividend income 46.169 59.006 75.316 95.620 Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 41.905 54.184 69.965 89.596 Equals: Personal income 231.550 292.799 369.626 464.532 Less: Personal current taxes 24.495 30.820 38.704 48.427 Equals: disposable personal income 207.056 261.979 330.922 416.105 Real personal income 132.968 151.317 171.899 194.567 Real disposable personal income 118.902 135.390 153.899 174.283 PCE-price index 174.140 193.500 215.025 238.752 Real personal income with housing price 138.475 157.414 178.636 201.994 Real Disposable personal income with housing price 123.826 140.845 159.931 180.936 PCE-price index with housing price 167.215 186.005 206.916 229.973 Relative housing price 0.708 0.720 0.7320 0.744 41
Table A8: Population and Labor Force (in 000s) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2013.199 2037.577 2064.645 2093.159 2122.925 2153.606 2184.028 2213.993 2243.438 Population as % of nation 0.637 0.640 0.644 0.648 0.652 0.657 0.661 0.665 0.669 By race and ethnicity White 936.387 938.324 941.395 944.837 948.519 952.273 955.552 958.294 960.482 Black 199.985 201.528 203.319 205.200 207.150 209.136 211.044 212.860 214.573 Other 263.251 268.367 273.849 279.530 285.391 291.385 297.350 303.260 309.094 Hispanic 613.575 629.358 646.083 663.592 681.865 700.813 720.082 739.578 759.289 By age Ages 0-14 411.584 413.419 415.57 418.258 421.954 425.956 429.463 432.96 436.296 Ages 15-24 258.235 257.778 256.618 255.323 255.802 256.46 258.661 260.498 262.575 Ages 25-64 1078.655 1086.6 1097.389 1110.064 1121.374 1133.37 1143.207 1152.675 1161.935 Ages 65 & older 264.725 279.78 295.068 309.514 323.795 337.821 352.698 367.860 382.631 Labor force 1006.561 1015.036 1024.971 1036.362 1047.267 1058.398 1072.283 1085.080 1097.419 Participation rates by gender Male (16 & older) 0.710 0.707 0.704 0.702 0.698 0.696 0.694 0.692 0.691 Female (16 & older) 0.583 0.579 0.574 0.571 0.567 0.563 0.561 0.559 0.557 Table A8: Population and Labor Force (in 000s) continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2272.604 2301.596 2330.383 2359.14 2387.867 2416.508 2445.148 2473.878 2502.889 Population as % of nation 0.673 0.677 0.681 0.684 0.688 0.691 0.695 0.699 0.702 By race and ethnicity White 962.226 963.598 964.573 965.232 965.58 965.595 965.314 964.786 964.074 Black 216.202 217.758 219.24 220.662 222.017 223.299 224.512 225.664 226.775 Other 314.899 320.679 326.424 332.15 337.866 343.563 349.267 354.988 360.763 Hispanic 779.277 799.561 820.146 841.096 862.405 884.051 906.056 928.44 951.277 By age Ages 0-14 439.029 441.465 445.216 449.131 452.953 456.452 459.961 463.536 467.251 Ages 15-24 265.371 268.795 270.539 271.801 273.438 276.152 279.044 281.573 284.315 Ages 25-64 1170.889 1179.527 1188.502 1197.146 1205.927 1214.388 1222.762 1231.565 1240.583 Ages 65 & older 397.315 411.808 426.126 441.062 455.55 469.516 483.381 497.205 510.740 Labor force 1108.004 1118.569 1129.104 1138.682 1148.672 1158.999 1169.765 1180.356 1190.762 Participation rates by gender Male (16 & older) 0.688 0.685 0.682 0.680 0.677 0.675 0.673 0.671 0.669 Female (16 & older) 0.553 0.550 0.547 0.544 0.541 0.538 0.536 0.533 0.531 42
Table A8: Population and Labor Force (in 000s) continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2647.096 2793.304 2945.74 3103.563 Population as % of nation 0.720 0.740 0.760 0.781 By race and ethnicity White 956.536 943.891 928.456 912.11 Black 231.568 235.368 238.354 240.438 Other 389.911 420.187 452.189 485.289 Hispanic 1069.081 1193.858 1326.741 1465.725 By age Ages 0-14 487.474 512.535 542.77 576.077 Ages 15-24 297.814 312.396 327.590 344.488 Ages 25-64 1292.832 1351.12 1415.466 1477.400 Ages 65 & older 568.976 617.253 659.914 705.598 Labor force 1248.665 1311.002 1375.183 1440.225 Participation rates by gender Male (16 & older) 0.663 0.660 0.659 0.657 Female (16 & older) 0.523 0.518 0.514 0.510 43
Table A9: Demographics (in 000s) Variable 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Starting population 1991.523 2013.199 2037.577 2064.645 2093.158 2122.925 2153.606 2184.028 2213.993 Births 27.873 27.988 28.139 28.327 28.558 28.794 29.041 29.262 29.45 Deaths 13.801 14.274 14.767 15.271 15.789 16.318 16.857 17.405 17.967 Natural growth 14.073 13.713 13.372 13.056 12.769 12.476 12.184 11.857 11.483 Population before migrants 2005.596 2026.912 2050.949 2077.701 2105.927 2135.401 2165.79 2195.885 2225.475 Total migrants 7.603 10.665 13.696 15.458 16.997 18.205 18.238 18.108 17.962 Economic migrants -3.462-1.5 0.312 1.629 2.746 3.521 3.131 2.534 1.943 Retired migrants 4.372 4.55 4.729 4.909 5.067 5.231 5.413 5.607 5.796 International migrants 8.241 8.501 8.760 9.020 9.279 9.538 9.798 10.057 10.316 Special pops migrants -1.548-0.886-0.105-0.101-0.094-0.085-0.104-0.090-0.093 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2013.199 2037.577 2064.645 2093.159 2122.925 2153.606 2184.028 2213.993 2243.438 Table A9: Demographics (in 000s) continued Variable 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Starting population 2243.437 2272.604 2301.596 2330.383 2359.14 2387.867 2416.508 2445.148 2473.878 Births 29.645 29.842 30.061 30.284 30.524 30.77 31.018 31.255 31.518 Deaths 18.539 19.122 19.719 20.33 20.955 21.592 22.243 22.905 23.582 Natural growth 11.106 10.720 10.342 9.954 9.570 9.177 8.775 8.350 7.936 Population before migrants 2254.543 2283.323 2311.938 2340.337 2368.709 2397.044 2425.284 2453.498 2481.814 Total migrants 18.06 18.272 18.444 18.803 19.157 19.464 19.864 20.380 21.075 Economic migrants 1.577 1.315 1.072 1.008 0.949 0.877 0.904 1.054 1.407 Retired migrants 5.962 6.127 6.288 6.456 6.610 6.733 6.848 6.956 7.038 International migrants 10.576 10.835 11.093 11.353 11.612 11.87 12.13 12.389 12.648 Special pops migrants -0.055-0.005-0.009-0.014-0.014-0.016-0.017-0.019-0.019 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2272.604 2301.596 2330.383 2359.14 2387.867 2416.508 2445.148 2473.878 2502.889 44
Table A9: Demographics (in 000s) continued Variable 2035 2040 2045 2050 Starting population 2618.125 2763.588 2914.624 3071.763 Births 33.109 35.099 37.355 39.616 Deaths 26.952 29.877 32.177 33.923 Natural growth 6.157 5.222 5.178 5.693 Population before migrants 2624.282 2768.81 2919.802 3077.456 Total migrants 22.813 24.494 25.938 26.107 Economic migrants 2.968 4.537 5.828 5.666 Retired migrants 7.199 7.225 7.323 7.655 International migrants 12.72 12.796 12.844 12.825 Special pops migrants -0.074-0.064-0.057-0.039 Total population (unrebased forecast) 2647.096 2793.304 2945.74 3103.563 45
An affirmative action/equal opportunity institution.