THE FUTURE OF CASH AND PAYMENTS

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Transcription:

THE FUTURE OF CASH AND PAYMENTS Retail Banking Research January 2010

CONFIDENTIALITY AND COPYRIGHT This report is published by Retail Banking Research Ltd (RBR). The information and data within this report are strictly confidential to those organisations which have purchased it. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. DISCLAIMER The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled to the best of our knowledge and with reasonable care and attention, but neither RBR nor any of its Directors accepts liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or make any representations as to its accuracy and completeness. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Retail Banking Research, 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 11 1.1 Why is the future of cash and payments important? 12 1.2 Report structure 19 1.3 Style and currencies 20 2. INFRASTRUCTURES AND PAYMENT METHODS 22 2.1 Introduction 22 2.1.1 Geographic scope 22 2.1.2 Data availability 22 2.1.3 Snapshots and country profiles 23 2.2 Infrastructure 23 2.2.1 Branch densities 23 2.2.2 Deposit accounts 24 2.2.3 POS terminal densities 25 2.2.4 Payment cards 26 2.2.5 ATM densities and functionality 27 2.2.6 Internet and e-commerce users 28 2.2.7 Shadow economies 30 2.3 Retail payment methods 31 2.3.1 Cash payments 31 2.3.2 Cashless retail payments 33 2.3.3 Payment card purchases 34 2.3.4 Electronic payments 35 2.3.5 Cheques 36 3. PAYMENT TRENDS AND ANALYSES 38 3.1 Introduction 38 3.2 Cashless payments 38 3.2.1 Steady growth in retail cashless payments 38 3.2.2 Payment card purchases drive growth 40 3.2.3 Growth in electronic payments 42 3.2.4 Cheques in long-term decline 44 3.2.5 Changes to retail cashless payments mix 45 3.2.6 Credit transfers represented majority of cashless payment values 46 3.2.7 Cashless payment values grew versus GDP 47 3.2.8 Increases in cashless payment values per capita 48 3.2.9 No correlation between cash in circulation and cashless payments 50 3.2.10 Cashless payments rise as GDP increases 50 3.3 Cash payments 52 3.4 Infrastructure and other comparisons 52 3.4.1 Branch density does not directly affect cashless payments 52 3.4.2 Bank account holding influences cashless payments 53 Page Retail Banking Research, 2010 Contents: Page i

3.4.3 Internet and e-commerce penetrations indicate cashless payments 55 3.4.4 POS terminals encourage payment card transactions 57 3.4.5 Payment card issuance drives payment card transactions 59 3.4.6 Payment card purchase values are falling 61 3.4.7 Test of Bank of Finland s theory produces mixed results 62 3.4.8 ATMs do not correlate with cash usage 63 3.4.9 Shadow economies drive cash usage 65 4. THE ECONOMICS OF CASH SUBSTITUTION 67 4.1 Introduction 67 4.2 European central bank studies 68 4.2.1 Belgium 68 4.2.2 Netherlands 73 4.2.3 Norway 78 4.2.4 Portugal 85 4.2.5 Sweden 91 4.3 Other studies 97 4.3.1 Australia 97 4.3.2 Switzerland 102 4.3.3 United Kingdom (British Retail Consortium) 103 4.3.4 United Kingdom (Visa UK and CRR) 109 4.3.5 MasterCard Europe 111 4.3.6 McKinsey & Company 111 4.3.7 European Commission 111 4.4 The business case for cash substitution 112 4.4.1 Apparent consensus hides disparities 112 4.4.2 Need for business cases 116 4.4.3 Business case for central banks 122 4.4.4 Business case for banks 123 4.4.5 Business case for retailers 124 4.4.6 Business case for consumers 127 4.4.7 Business cases for other participants 128 4.5 Other major drivers 129 4.5.1 Payment Services Directive 129 4.5.2 Regulations 2560/2001 and 924/2009 132 4.5.3 SEPA 133 4.5.4 Merchant Service Charges 145 4.5.5 Interchange fees 150 4.5.6 Price discrimination 157 4.5.7 Annual card fees 158 4.5.8 Charging for ATM cash withdrawals 162 5. OTHER KEY DRIVERS 169 5.1 Introduction 169 5.2 Socio-demographics 170 5.2.1 Dutch working paper 170 5.2.2 Portuguese consumer survey 171 5.2.3 Annual British reports 172 Contents: Page ii Retail Banking Research, 2010

5.2.4 RBA discussion paper 172 5.2.5 Deutsche Bundesbank report 173 5.3 Transaction size and retailer type 176 5.4 Increased debit card use 181 5.5 Purchase with cashback 184 5.6 National e-purse schemes 185 5.7 Financial crisis and recession 186 5.8 Pricing signals 188 5.8.1 The current situation in Europe 188 5.8.2 Pricing signals in different countries 190 5.8.3 Cash substitution by debit cards 193 5.8.4 Impact of pricing signals 196 5.9 Contactless payments 196 5.9.1 M-commerce 196 5.9.2 Contactless card payments 198 6. STRATEGIC FORECASTS 201 6.1 Introduction 201 6.2 Global drivers and country characteristics 202 6.3 Moderate scenario forecasts 202 6.3.1 Cash to remain main retail payment method 202 6.3.2 Cashless payments will increase by three-quarters 209 6.3.3 Changes in payments mix 212 6.4 Accelerated scenario forecasts 215 6.4.1 Substantial cash substitution 215 6.4.2 Major economies benefit most from cash substitution 216 6.4.3 Cash remains main payment method 217 6.4.4 Per capita usage of cash would decline 218 6.4.5 Payment cards would be main cash substitute 219 6.5 Is there a minimum level of cash usage? 222 7. STAKEHOLDER IMPLICATIONS AND ACTIONS 223 7.1 Introduction 223 7.2 Regulators, governments and public institutions 223 7.3 Central banks 224 7.4 Payment card organisations 225 7.5 Retail banks 226 7.6 Acquirers 228 7.7 Retailers 230 7.8 Consumers 231 7.9 Others 232 7.9.1 Banking associations 232 7.9.2 ATM deployers 232 7.9.3 CIT companies 233 Retail Banking Research, 2010 Contents: Page iii

APPENDIX A: MAIN SOURCES OF INFORMATION 234 APPENDIX B: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 240 APPENDIX C: COUNTRY PROFILES, WESTERN EUROPE 249 Introduction 250 C.1 Austria 251 C.2 Belgium 254 C.3 Denmark 258 C.4 Finland 262 C.5 France 265 C.6 Germany 269 C.7 Greece 277 C.8 Ireland 281 C.9 Italy 286 C.10 Luxembourg 291 C.11 Netherlands 293 C.12 Norway 297 C.13 Portugal 302 C.14 Spain 306 C.15 Sweden 311 C.16 Switzerland 316 C.17 United Kingdom 320 APPENDIX D: COUNTRY PROFILES, CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE 329 Introduction 330 D.1 Bulgaria 331 D.2 Czech Republic 334 D.3 Estonia 337 D.4 Hungary 341 D.5 Latvia 345 D.6 Lithuania 348 D.7 Poland 351 D.8 Romania 355 D.9 Russia 359 D.10 Slovakia 363 D.11 Slovenia 366 APPENDIX E: COUNTRY PROFILES, AUSTRALIA AND USA 371 E.1 Introduction 372 E.2 Australia 372 E.3 United States of America 376 APPENDIX F: BANK BUSINESS CASE COSTS AND REVENUES 382 F.1 Introduction 383 F.2 Terminology 385 F.3 Notes 385 Contents: Page iv Retail Banking Research, 2010

APPENDIX G: RETAILER BUSINESS CASE COSTS AND REVENUES 399 G.1 Introduction 400 G.2 Terminology 401 G.3 Notes 402 APPENDIX H: CONSUMER BUSINESS CASE COSTS AND REVENUES 410 H.1 Introduction 411 H.2 Terminology 412 H.3 Notes 412 Retail Banking Research, 2010 Contents: Page v

FIGURES AND TABLES Page Figure 1: Growth of euro cash in circulation, billions, 2002-2008... 12 Figure 2: Growth rates of other currencies cash in circulation to end 2008... 13 Figure 3: Retail payment costs in Europe, 2008 ( billions)... 14 Figure 4: Cash as % of retail payment volumes in western Europe, 2008... 15 Figure 5: Cash as % of retail payment volumes in central and eastern Europe, 2008... 16 Figure 6: Bank/PO branches per million people in Europe, 2008... 24 Figure 7: Deposit accounts per person in Europe, 2008... 25 Figure 8: POS terminals per million people in Europe, 2008... 26 Figure 9: Payment cards per person in Europe, 2008... 27 Figure 10: ATMs per million people in Europe, 2008... 28 Figure 11: Internet users in Europe, June 2008... 29 Figure 12: E-commerce users in the EU27, year to February 2009... 29 Figure 13: Shadow economies in selected countries, 1999/2000 and 2002/3... 30 Figure 14: Use of different retail payment methods in Europe, 2008... 31 Figure 15: Cash payments per capita in Europe, 2008... 32 Figure 16: Cashless payments per capita in Europe, 2008... 33 Figure 17: Payment card purchases per capita in Europe, 2008... 34 Figure 18: Credit transfers and direct debits per person in Europe, 2008... 36 Table 1: Cheques as a proportion of retail cashless payments in Europe, 2008... 37 Figure 19: Retail cashless payments per person in western Europe, 2000-2008... 39 Figure 20: Retail cashless payments per person in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2008 39 Figure 21: Payment card purchases per person in western Europe, 2000-2008... 41 Figure 22: Payment card purchases per person in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2008. 42 Figure 23: Electronic payments per person in western Europe, 2000-2008... 43 Figure 24: Electronic payments per person in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2008... 43 Figure 25: Cheques per person in Europe, 2000-2008... 44 Figure 26: Cashless payment volumes by method in Europe, 2008... 45 Figure 27: Cashless payment volumes by method in central and eastern Europe, 2008... 46 Figure 28: Cashless payment values vs. GDP in western Europe, 2000-2008... 47 Figure 29: Cashless payment values vs. GDP in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2008... 48 Figure 30: Cashless payment values per capita in western Europe, 2000-2008... 49 Figure 31: Cashless payment values per capita in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2008. 49 Figure 32: Per capita cashless payment volumes vs. GDP PPP, Europe 2008... 51 Figure 33: Cashless payments share vs. GDP PPP per capita, Europe 2008... 51 Figure 34: Branch densities vs. cashless payments per capita, Europe 2008... 53 Figure 35: Per capita deposit accounts vs. cashless payments, Europe 2008... 54 Figure 36: Internet penetration vs. cashless payments per capita, 2008... 55 Figure 37a: E-commerce usage vs. cashless payments per capita, 2008/9... 56 Figure 37b: E-commerce usage vs. cashless payments share, 2008/9... 57 Figure 38: Growth of payment card purchases per POS terminal in Europe, 2000-2008... 58 Figure 39: Number of payment card purchases per POS terminal in Europe, 2008... 59 Figure 40: Growth of payment card purchases per payment card in Europe, 2000-2008... 60 Figure 41: Number of payment card purchases per payment card in Europe, 2008... 61 Figure 42: Change in real payment card purchase ATVs per year, 2000-2008... 62 Figure 43: ATM cash withdrawals vs. cash as proportion of retail payments, 2008... 64 Contents: Page vi Retail Banking Research, 2010

Figure 44: ATM density vs. cash as proportion of retail payments, 2008... 65 Figure 45: Cash as proportion of retail payments vs. size of shadow economy... 66 Table 2: Costs of different payment methods in Belgium, 2003... 70 Table 3: Costs of different payment methods in the Netherlands, 2002... 75 Table 4: Social costs for selected payment services in Norway, 2007... 82 Table 5: Payments at Norwegian retailers points of sale, 2007... 83 Table 6: Norwegian banks costs of producing payment services, 2001 and 2007... 83 Table 7: Portuguese banks costs and revenues per payment instrument, 2005... 88 Figure 46: Payments at SME retailers in Portugal, 2005... 89 Table 8: Swedish banks unit costs and fees for payment services, 2002 (SEK)... 93 Table 9: Social costs for cash and payment cards in Sweden, 2002... 95 Table 10: Resource costs per transaction of payment methods in Australia, 2005/6... 101 Figure 47: Collection cost %s per payment method for UK retailers, 2008... 104 Figure 48: Collection cost %s by type of cost for UK retailers, 2008... 105 Table 11: BRC Cost of Collection Survey results, 2006-2008... 107 Table 12: UK retailers costs per payment method, 2006/7... 110 Table 13: Comparison of main study findings... 114 Table 14: Retailer business case example... 126 Table 15: SEPA countries national payment card scheme strategies, August 2009... 139 Figure 49: % higher average MSCs paid by smaller retailers (2004)... 147 Table 16: Merchant Service Charges in Europe, 2008... 148 Table 17: Lower interchange rates on consumer cards in Europe, August 2009... 156 Table 18: Payment card fees in Europe, 2008... 160 Table 19: Debit card ATM cash withdrawal fees in Europe, 2007-2009... 164 Figure 50: Use of different payment methods by type of purchase in Portugal, 2005... 177 Figure 51: Use of different payment methods by type of purchase in Australia, 2007... 179 Figure 52: Use of different payment methods by purchase amount in Germany, 2008... 181 Figure 53: Changes in debit card market shares, western Europe, 2006-2008... 182 Figure 54: Changes in debit card market shares, central and eastern Europe, 2006-2008. 183 Figure 55: Changes in debit card ATVs in Europe, 2006-2008... 184 Figure 56: GDP growth/decline in western Europe, 2000-2010... 187 Figure 57: GDP growth/decline in central and eastern Europe, 2000-2010... 188 Table 20: Indicative cash-related pricing signals in selected countries... 195 Table 21: Main drivers used to forecast future payment volumes... 203 Figure 58: Cash payments per capita 2008-2014, top 14 countries, moderate scenario... 206 Figure 59: Cash payments per capita 2008-2014, bottom 14, moderate scenario... 207 Figure 60: Cash as % of retail payments in Europe 2008-2014, moderate scenario... 208 Figure 61: Cash as % of retail payments in CEE 2008-2014, moderate scenario... 209 Figure 62: Cashless payments per capita in western Europe 2008-2014, moderate... 211 Figure 63: Cashless payments per capita in CEE 2008-2014, moderate scenario... 212 Figure 64: Retail payments in Europe 2008-2014, moderate scenario... 213 Figure 65: Cashless payments by method in Europe in 2014, moderate scenario... 213 Figure 66: Cashless payments by method in western Europe in 2014, moderate scenario 214 Figure 67: Cashless payments by method in CEE in 2014, moderate scenario... 214 Figure 68: Extra cash substitution in accelerated scenario per region, 2009-2014... 215 Figure 69: Extra cash substitution per country, accelerated scenario, 2009-2014... 216 Figure 70: Cash as % of retail payments in Europe in 2014, accelerated scenario... 217 Figure 71: Additional falls in cash proportions in 2014, accelerated scenario... 218 Figure 72: Additional falls in per capita usage of cash in 2014, accelerated scenario... 219 Retail Banking Research, 2010 Contents: Page vii

Figure 73: Cashless payments by method in Europe in 2014, accelerated scenario... 220 Figure 74: Cashless payments by method in western Europe in 2014, accelerated... 221 Figure 75: Cashless payments by method in CEE in 2014, accelerated scenario... 221 Table C1: Infrastructural and ATM data for Austria, 2000-2007... 252 Table C2: Retail payment transactions in Austria, 2000-2007 (millions)... 253 Figure C1: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Austria, 2007... 254 Table C3: Infrastructural and ATM data for Belgium, 2000-2007... 255 Table C4: Retail payment transactions in Belgium, 2000-2007 (millions)... 256 Figure C2: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Belgium, 2007... 257 Table C5: Infrastructural and ATM data for Denmark, 2000-2007... 259 Table C6: Retail payment transactions in Denmark, 2000-2007 (millions)... 260 Figure C3: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Denmark, 2007... 261 Table C7: Infrastructural and ATM data for Finland, 2000-2007... 263 Table C8: Retail payment transactions in Finland, 2000-2007 (millions)... 264 Figure C4: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Finland, 2007... 265 Table C9: Infrastructural and ATM data for France, 2000-2007... 267 Table C10: Retail payment transactions in France, 2000-2007 (millions)... 268 Figure C5: Retail payment volumes by payment type in France, 2007... 269 Table C11: Infrastructural and ATM data for Germany, 2000-2007... 271 Figure C6: Use of different payment methods in German retailers, 1994-2008... 272 Figure C7: Use of different payment methods per German retail sector, 2007... 273 Table C12: Retail payment transactions in Germany, 2000-2007 (millions)... 274 Figure C8: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Germany, 2007... 275 Table C13: Assessment of retail payment instruments in Germany... 277 Table C14: Infrastructural and ATM data for Greece, 2000-2007... 279 Table C15: Retail payment transactions in Greece, 2000-2007 (millions)... 280 Figure C9: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Greece, 2007... 281 Table C16: Infrastructural and ATM data for Ireland, 2000-2007... 283 Table C17: Retail payment transactions in Ireland, 2000-2007 (millions)... 284 Figure C10: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Ireland, 2007... 285 Table C18: Infrastructural and ATM data for Italy, 2000-2007... 288 Table C19: Retail payment transactions in Italy, 2000-2007 (millions)... 289 Figure C11: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Italy, 2007... 290 Table C20: Infrastructural and ATM data for Luxembourg, 2000-2007... 291 Table C21: Retail payment transactions in Luxembourg, 2000-2007 (millions)... 292 Figure C12: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Luxembourg, 2007... 293 Table C22: Infrastructural and ATM data for the Netherlands, 2000-2007... 294 Table C23: Retail payment transactions in the Netherlands, 2000-2007 (millions)... 296 Figure C13: Retail payment volumes by payment type in the Netherlands, 2007... 296 Table C24: Infrastructural and ATM data for Norway, 2000-2007... 299 Table C25: Retail payment transactions in Norway, 2000-2007 (millions)... 300 Figure C14: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Norway, 2007... 301 Table C26: Infrastructural and ATM data for Portugal, 2000-2007... 303 Table C27: Retail payment transactions in Portugal, 2000-2007 (millions)... 304 Figure C15: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Portugal, 2007... 305 Table C28: Infrastructural and ATM data for Spain, 2000-2007... 307 Table C29: Retail payment transactions in Spain, 2000-2007 (millions)... 309 Figure C16: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Spain, 2007... 310 Table C30: Infrastructural and ATM data for Sweden, 2000-2007... 313 Contents: Page viii Retail Banking Research, 2010

Figure C17: Cash as share of value of payments at Swedish points of sale, 1996-2004... 314 Table C31: Retail payment transactions in Sweden, 2000-2007 (millions)... 314 Figure C18: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Sweden, 2007... 315 Table C32: Infrastructural and ATM data for Switzerland, 2000-2007... 318 Table C33: Retail payment transactions in Switzerland, 2000-2007 (millions)... 319 Figure C19: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Switzerland, 2007... 319 Table C34: Infrastructural and ATM data for the UK, 2000-2007... 322 Table C35: Retail payment transactions in the UK, 2000-2007 (millions)... 323 Figure C20: Retail payment volumes by payment type in the UK, 2007... 324 Figure C21: Share of retail payment volumes in the UK made in cash, 2000-2008... 325 Figure C22: Payments at UK retailers, 2006-2008... 325 Figure C23: London bus/tube journeys using Oyster cards, 2007... 327 Table D1: Infrastructural and ATM data for Bulgaria, 2000-2007... 332 Table D2: Retail payment transactions in Bulgaria, 2000-2007 (millions)... 333 Figure D1: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Bulgaria, 2007... 333 Table D3: Infrastructural and ATM data for the Czech Republic, 2000-2007... 335 Table D4: Retail payment transactions in the Czech Republic, 2000-2007 (millions)... 336 Figure D2: Retail payment volumes by payment type in the Czech Republic, 2007... 337 Table D5: Infrastructural and ATM data for Estonia, 2000-2007... 338 Table D6: Retail payment transactions in Estonia, 2000-2007 (millions)... 340 Figure D3: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Estonia, 2007... 340 Table D7: Infrastructural and ATM data for Hungary, 2000-2007... 342 Table D8: Retail payment transactions in Hungary, 2000-2007 (millions)... 343 Figure D4: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Hungary, 2007... 344 Table D9: Infrastructural and ATM data for Latvia, 2000-2007... 346 Table D10: Retail payment transactions in Latvia, 2000-2007 (millions)... 347 Figure D5: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Latvia, 2007... 347 Table D11: Infrastructural and ATM data for Lithuania, 2000-2007... 349 Table D12: Retail payment transactions in Lithuania, 2000-2007 (millions)... 350 Figure D6: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Lithuania, 2007... 351 Table D13: Infrastructural and ATM data for Poland, 2000-2007... 353 Table D14: Retail payment transactions in Poland, 2000-2007 (millions)... 355 Figure D7: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Poland, 2007... 355 Table D15: Infrastructural and ATM data for Romania, 2000-2007... 357 Table D16: Retail payment transactions in Romania, 2000-2007 (millions)... 358 Figure D8: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Romania, 2007... 359 Table D17: Infrastructural and ATM data for Russia, 2000-2007... 361 Table D18: Retail payment transactions in Russia, 2000-2007 (millions)... 362 Figure D9: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Russia, 2007... 363 Table D19: Infrastructural and ATM data for Slovakia, 2000-2007... 364 Table D20: Retail payment transactions in Slovakia, 2000-2007 (millions)... 365 Figure D10: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Slovakia, 2007... 366 Table D21: Infrastructural and ATM data for Slovenia, 2000-2007... 368 Table D22: Retail payment transactions in Slovenia, 2000-2007 (millions)... 369 Figure D11: Retail payment volumes by payment type in Slovenia, 2007... 370 Figure E1: Cashless payment volumes in Australia by payment type, year to June 2007. 373 Figure E2: Cashless payment values in Australia by payment type, year to June 2007... 373 Figure E3: Proportions of personal payments in Australia, 2007... 374 Table E1: Infrastructural and ATM data for the USA, 2000-2007... 377 Retail Banking Research, 2010 Contents: Page ix

Table E2: Retail payment transactions in the USA, 2000-2007 (millions)... 378 Figure E4: Retail payment volumes by payment type in the USA, 2007... 379 Figure E5: Main payment methods used by US adults for everyday expenses... 380 Table F1: Banks major cost elements... 387 Table F2: Banks major revenue elements... 397 Table G1: Retailers major cost elements... 404 Table G2: Retailers major revenue elements... 409 Table H1: Consumers major costs... 414 Table H2: Consumers major revenues/benefits... 415 Contents: Page x Retail Banking Research, 2010

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