BUY HOLD SELL A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F BUY December 31, 2017 BUY RATING SINCE 05/06/2016 TARGET PRICE $80.00 WPC BUSINESS DESCRIPTION W. P. Carey Inc. is a leading internally-managed net lease REIT that provides long-term sale-leaseback and build-to-suit financing solutions primarily for companies in the U.S. and Europe. At September 30, 2017, the Company had an enterprise value of approximately $11.4 billion. STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 3 Yr (Ann) Price Change 1.03 19.55-1.53 GROWTH (%) Last Qtr 12 Mo. 3 Yr CAGR Revenues -6.19-9.08 4.22 Net Income -27.65-7.87 2.70 EPS -28.16-9.10 4.94 RETURN ON EQUITY (%) WPC Ind Avg S&P 500 Q3 2017 7.73 12.67 13.41 Q3 2016 8.01 12.02 11.79 Q3 2015 4.39 1 12.91 Sector: Real Estate Sub-Industry: Diversified REITs Source: S&P Weekly Price: (US$) SMA (50) SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years Rating History BUY HOLD BUY Volume in Millions 2016 2017 COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History TARGET PRICE $80.00 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 4 2 0 P/E COMPARISON RECOMMENDATION We rate (WPC) a BUY. This is driven by multiple strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any nesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its reasonable valuation levels, expanding profit margins, good cash flow from operations, solid stock price performance and largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income. 30.11 WPC 51.94 Ind Avg 25.84 S&P 500 HIGHLIGHTS The gross profit margin for is rather high; currently it is at 61.83%. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 35.35% significantly outperformed against the industry average. EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Net operating cash flow has slightly increased to $134.62 million or 7.41% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, has also modestly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of 4.39%. Q1 0.34 Q2 0.59 Q3 0.20 2015 Q4 0.48 Q1 0.54 Q2 0.48 Q3 1.03 2016 NA = not available NM = not meaningful Q4 0.44 Q1 0.53 Q2 0.59 Q3 0.74 2017 1 Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. Compared to where it was a year ago today, the stock is now trading at a higher level, regardless of the company's earnings results. Turning our attention to the future direction of the stock, it goes without saying that even the best stocks can fall in an overall down market. However, in any other environment, this stock still has good upside potential despite the fact that it has already risen in the past year. WPC, with its decline in revenue, underperformed when compared the industry average of 9.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 6.2%. Weakness in the company's revenue seems to have hurt the bottom line, decreasing earnings per share. PAGE 1
PEER GROUP ANALYSIS REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* Revenue Growth (TTM) -20% 180% UNFAVORABLE 24% EBITDA Margin (TTM) VER FAVORABLE 30% Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $2.5 Billion and $8.6 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD Revenue Growth (TTM) -20% 180% UNFAVORABLE VER -2% CLNS Earnings Yield (TTM) GPT FCE.A SRC WRE ESRT PSB FAVORABLE STOR WPC LPT Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -9.1% and 171.8%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. 6% INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The US real estate industry is one of the larger components of the US economy. The industry is cyclical and depends upon economic growth and demographic trends. The level and volatility of interest rates ly affect the industry. Real estate prices skyrocketed during the past decade due to rising demand and low interest rates. Residential construction and sales of existing homes remained during 2000-2005. However, by the end of 2006, the residential market slumped and prices started to decline as a result of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and broader economic slowdown. This culminated in a nationwide crash in real estate values that has since leveled out and begun to slowly strengthen. Tighter credit and declining prices throughout the US that damaged the industry have begun to reverse course. The market has experienced a period of high delinquencies and foreclosures, which has resulted from the wide scale price collapse. Many homes are under foreclosure proceedings or are now owned by lenders. Also, the commercial real estate market has witnessed a spill-over impact from the decline in the residential market. The US real estate industry is comprised of real estate investment trusts (REIT) and real estate management and development. A REIT is a corporation or trust that uses pooled capital to issue mortgage loans to builders/developers or directly invests in income-generating property that offers tax benefits with respect to interest and capital gains. The real estate management and development industry includes companies engaged in ownership, management and development. There are three principal types of REITs: equity REITs, mortgage REITs and hybrid REITs. Equity REITs own properties and generate revenue through the rental and sale of property. Roughly 90% of REITs are equity based. The US sub-prime debacle adversely impacted the performance of REITs when access to capital via public debt and equity markets became more challenging. Mortgage REITs remain in the financial sector while all other Real Estate stocks are grouped under the newly designated Real Estate sector in 2016. Mortgage REITs may originate, purchase, and securitize both residential and commercial mortgage loans and other mortgage-backed securities and assets. Real estate management and development is separate and distinct from the REIT industry. With higher structural flexibility, the trade-off for investors is generally lower dividend yields than are available from REITs. Secular changes such as increased outsourcing of real estate services are propelling the industry forward. After years of performance, the slowdown in the US economy and deterioration in the housing market may have abated positively impacting performance in the coming years. PEER GROUP: Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts REITs Recent Market Price/ Net Sales Net Income Ticker Company Name Price ($) Cap ($M) Earnings TTM ($M) TTM ($M) WPC 69.26 7,405 30.11 944.42 249.78 VER VEREIT INC 7.74 8,644 NM 1,377.01-51.48 CLNS COLONY NORTHSTAR INC 11.54 7,849 NM 2,565.85 133.13 FCE.A FOREST CITY REALTY TRUST INC 24.14 6,439 52.48 1,007.83 104.95 LPT LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST 43.35 6,391 18.29 754.45 349.37 STOR STORE CAPITAL CORP 26.03 4,946 29.25 439.46 152.97 PSB PS BUSINESS PARKS 125.27 4,482 41.76 398.08 151.36 GPT GRAMERCY PROPERTY TRUST 26.80 4,400 60.91 577.77 73.66 SRC SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL INC 8.57 4,078 95.22 676.99 42.35 ESRT EMPIRE STATE REALTY TR INC 20.59 3,266 52.79 708.26 62.34 WRE WASHINGTON REIT 31.29 2,455 104.30 321.03 22.78 The peer group comparison is based on Major Diversified REITs companies of comparable size. PAGE 2
COMPANY DESCRIPTION W. P. Carey Inc. is a leading internally-managed net lease REIT that provides long-term sale-leaseback and build-to-suit financing solutions primarily for companies in the U.S. and Europe. At September 30, 2017, the Company had an enterprise value of approximately $11.4 billion. In addition to its owned portfolio of diversified global real estate, W. P. Carey manages a series of investment programs with assets under management of approximately $13.2 billion. Its corporate finance-focused credit and real estate underwriting process is a constant that has been successfully leveraged across a wide variety of industries and property types. Furthermore, its portfolio of long-term leases with creditworthy tenants has an established history of generating stable cash flows, enabling it to deliver consistent and rising dividend income to investors for over four decades. www.wpcarey.com. 50 Rockefeller Plaza New York, NY 10020 USA Phone: (212) 492-1100 Fax: (212) 492-8922 http://www.wpcarey.com STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of WPC shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and nesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE Growth 4.0 out of 5 stars Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, WPC has a growth score better than 70% of the stocks we rate. Total Return 3.0 out of 5 stars Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 50% of the companies we cover. Efficiency 3.0 out of 5 stars Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 50% of the companies we review. Price volatility 2.5 out of 5 stars Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 40% of the stocks we monitor. Solvency 3.0 out of 5 stars Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 50% of the companies we analyze. Income 5.0 out of 5 stars Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 90% of the companies we track. THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. PAGE 3
Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 's gross profit margin for the third quarter of its fiscal year 2017 has increased when compared to the same period a year ago. Sales and net income have dropped, underperforming the average competitor within its industry. During the same period, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has remained virtually unchanged only decreasing by 4.58% from the same quarter last year. 0.57 Q4 FY17 2.42 E 2017(E) 2.22 E 2018(E) STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit www.thestreetratings.com. INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) 227.07 242.05 EBITDA ($mil) NA NA EBIT ($mil) 113.33 105.58 Net Income ($mil) 80.28 110.94 BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) 219.34 279.32 Total Assets ($mil) 8,334.41 8,468.29 Total Debt ($mil) 4,314.84 4,391.82 Equity ($mil) 3,228.58 3,383.85 PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin 61.83% 53.92% EBITDA Margin NA NA Operating Margin 49.91% 43.62% Sales Turnover 0.11 0.12 Return on Assets 2.99% 3.20% Return on Equity 7.73% 8.01% DEBT Current Ratio NA NA Debt/Capital 0.57 0.56 Interest Expense 41.18 44.35 Interest Coverage 2.75 2.38 SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) 107 106 Div / share 1.01 0.99 EPS 0.74 1.03 Book value / share 30.20 31.84 Institutional Own % NA NA Avg Daily Volume 283,266 264,016 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. PAGE 4
RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for has not changed since 5/6/2016. As of 12/28/2017, the stock was trading at a price of which is 4.4% below its 52-week high of $72.41 and 20.3% above its 52-week low of $57.58. 2 Year Chart BUY: $60.84 HOLD: $54.89 BUY: $63.00 2016 $80 $70 $60 MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action From To 5/6/16 $63.00 Upgrade Hold Buy 2/19/16 $54.89 Downgrade Buy Hold 12/28/15 $60.84 No Change Buy Buy Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 12/28/2017) 44.99% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months. 29.96% Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss. 25.05% Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY 10005 www.thestreet.com Research Contact: 212-321-5381 Sales Contact: 866-321-8726 VALUATION BUY. This stock's P/E ratio indicates a significant discount compared to an average of 51.94 for the Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts REITs industry and a premium compared to the S&P 500 average of 25.84. To use another comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 2.29 indicates a discount versus the S&P 500 average of 3.28 and a significant discount versus the industry average of 4.72. The current price-to-sales ratio is well above the S&P 500 average, but below the industry average. Upon assessment of these and other key valuation criteria, proves to trade at a discount to investment alternatives within the industry. Price/Earnings WPC 30.11 Peers 51.94 Discount. A lower P/E ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower growth expectations. Price/Projected Earnings WPC 31.23 Peers 58.02 Discount. A lower price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower future growth expectations. Price/Book WPC 2.29 Peers 4.72 Discount. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. Price/Sales WPC 7.84 Peers 8.27 Average. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. WPC is trading at a valuation on par with its industry on this measurement. DISCLAIMER: Price/CashFlow WPC 13.74 Peers 19.83 Discount. The P/CF ratio, a stock s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. Price to Earnings/Growth WPC NM Peers 112.90 Neutral. The PEG ratio is the stock s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. WPC's negative PEG ratio makes this valuation measure meaningless. Earnings Growth lower higher WPC -9.10 Peers 62.26 Lower. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. However, WPC is expected to significantly trail its peers on the basis of its earnings growth rate. Sales Growth lower higher WPC -9.08 Peers 10.58 Lower. A sales growth rate that trails the industry implies that a company is losing market share. WPC significantly trails its peers on the basis of sales growth The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at http://www.thestreet.com/static/about/terms-of-use.html. PAGE 5