Analyst Conference Call Q results

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Transcription:

LOCAL EXPERTISE MEETS GLOBAL EXCELLENCE Analyst Conference Call Q3 2008 results November 11, 2008 Dr. Wolf Schumacher, CEO Hermann J. Merkens, CFO

Highlights Q3 2008 1 Aareal business model proved itself successful once more 1 2 Making profits despite accelerating financial crisis 2 3 Black figures even without reclassification of securities 3 4 Good operating performance in both business segments 4 5 Growth of core portfolio 5 6 Adequate capital base 6 7 Solid funding position 7 1

Business Development

Structured Property Financing Risk weighted assets (KSA) New business development yoy bn 30 + 6.4% 23.4 22.0 20 10 0 30.6.2008 30.9.2008 bn 10 8 6 4 2 0 German 8.752-43.1% 4.983 9M 2007 9M 2008 International New business development qoq New business by region 9M 2008 bn 2,5 2,0 1,5 + 70.1% 1.083 + 11.7% 1.842 2.058 Europe South Asia/Pacific 12% 11% 25% North America 1,0 0,5 0,0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 German International Europe 13% North Europe East 17% 22% Europe West 3

Consulting / Services Stable customer deposits: mn 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 Term deposits (housing industry) 1.000 0 Sight deposits (housing industry) 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Further acquisition successes in all product lines Stable demand for consulting services Stable earnings independent of financial crisis 9M EBT of 33mn in line with FY guidance ( 40-50 mn) 4

Funds issued matching new commitments mn 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 mn 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 9M 2008 0 Senior unsecured issues Mortgage Pfandbrief Issues x New commitments 5

Financial Performance

Performance Profit before tax and special effects by quarter mn 240 221 220 200 Pre tax one-off effects Q3 2008: Impairments and losses on securities: -44 mn Effects from hedges: +34 mn Shown as operating: 180 160 140 120 100 80 provisions for social plan: -8 mn Pre tax one-off effects Q2 2008: Proceeds from Interhotel transaction : +10 mn Pre tax one-off effects Q1 2008: ABS marked-to-market effect: -16 mn Pre tax one-off effects Q4 2007: Bond marked-to-market effect: -16 mn 60 40 20 0-20 32 Q3 2007 27 45 Q4 2007 27 43 Q1 2008 48 38 Q2 2008 31 41 Q3 2008 Goodwill impairment BauGrund: -2 mn Pre tax one-off effects Q3 2007: Proceeds from Interhotel transaction: +63 mn Proceeds from Immoscout : +153 mn Bond marked-to-market effect: -15 mn Special expenses (compensation payments, preparation of legacy portfolio sale): -12 mn 7 Operating profit without one-offs One-off effects

Performance Net interest income and allowance for credit losses mn 130 110 90 70 50 84 89 83 91 92 95 99 30 10-10 -30 14 15 17 18 15 19 18-22 -22-19 -14-20 -20-20 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 NII Sructured Property Financing NII Consulting/Services Allowance for credit losses 8

Performance Net commission income mn 40 Positive performance of Consulting/Services balances out reduced commission income in Structured Property Financing (due to substantially reduced fee income from unscheduled repayments) 20 32 37 33 35 34 0 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Commission Income 9

Performance Admin expenses mn 100 80 60 Measures to raise efficiency paying off First successful steps towards adapting group structure to optimised portfolio structure 40 93 88 88 89 84 20 0 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Admin Expenses 10

Analysis Breakdown net trading income mn 40 35 30-7 25-2 20 15 10 34-15 - 2 17 25 5 0 Gain from economic hedges Lehman impairment Cost of securitisations ABS mtm Bond mtm Reclassisfication Total 11

Analysis Breakdown results from non-trading assets mn 0 Impairments -5-14 -10 Realised losses Total -15-20 -25-15 -37-30 -35-8 -40 12

Performance Development revaluation reserve mn 120 80 40 0 6 56 86 70-35 -30-40 -106-90 -71-80 -39-120 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 31.03.2008 30.06.2008 30.09.2008 Revaluation reserve Relief by reclassification of securities from AfS to LaR 13

Analysis of reclassified securities in Q3 2008 in mn Without reclassification With reclassification from 1.7.2008 Trading book Notional Market value Hypothetical P&L effect Hypothetical market value Volume in LaR P&L effect Volume in LaR 30.06.2008 Q3 2008 30.09.2008 01.07.2008 Q3 2008 30.09.2008 ABS 560 520-15 505 520 0 520 Bonds 10 9-2 7 9 0 9 Total 570 529-17 512 529 0 529 AfS book Notional Market value Hypothetical? Reval. Res. Hypothetical market value Volume in LaR? Reval. reserve Volume in LaR 30.06.2008 Q3 2008 30.09.2008 01.07.2008 Q3 2008 30.09.2008 ABS 56 54-2 52 54 0 54 Bonds 431 390-49 341 390 0 390 Total 487 444-51 393 444 0 444 Def. tax on? Reval. reserve 12 Net position -39 No active market in Q3 2008 for the reclassified securities No impairments were necessary on the reclassified securities in Q3 2008 14

Exposure to special asset classes as of 30.09.2008 Asset Class Exposure Aareal Bank US Subprime and US RMBS None CDOs None ABCPs / SIVs None Exposure insured by Monoliners None Iceland (including Icelandic Banks) None Lehman Brothers < 10 mn ABS portfolio - of which AAA rated - of which US CMBS ~ 610 mn > 90% < 50 mn 15

Funding Structure & Capital

Adequate capital position 40 Total balance sheet leverage 9,0% Tier 1 ratio (KSA) 35 30 30,4 30,6 30,7 8,5% 8,0% 7,7% 8,3% 8,0% 25 22,3 22,6 22,5 7,5% 20 7,0% 15 6,5% 10 6,0% 5 5,5% 0 '31.03.2008 30.6.2008 30.9.2008 5,0% '31.03.2008 30.6.2008 30.9.2008 Total assets / equity including hybrids 17 Total assets / equity without hybrids

Asset/Liability structure as at 30.09.2008 bn 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 1.3 Cash and interbank 10.6 Treasury portfolio 2.1 Public sector loans 23.0 Real estate structured finance loan book 5.0 Interbank 5.1 Client deposits 22.1 Long-term funds 10 5 0 2.8 Non-interest-bearing assets 3.2 Non-int.-bearing liab. + equity Assets 4.4 Deposits from the housing industry Liabilities 18

Maturity profiles Loan portfolio vs. long term liabilities (as at 30.09.2008) mn 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Solid liquidity situation: Long term funding average maturity: 5.0 years Loan portfolio average maturity: 3.5 years 1000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 Contractual repayments of the loan portfolio Long term funding volume to mature Of which: Mortgage Pfandbriefe Surplus (cumulative) 19

Asset Quality

Total property finance portfolio as at 30.09.2008 Total volume outstanding : 23.7 bn North America Europe East Europe North 12% Europe South 11% 12% Developments by region 5% 17% Asia/Pacific Europe 22% West (ex Ger) 21% Germany Other Other / Mixed Logistics Hotel by property type 9% 15% Residential 12% 15% 12% 3% 12% 4% 30% 19% by product type by LTV ranges 1) > 80% 60-80% Office Shopping Centre 85% Investment finance 84% < 60% 21 1) Mortgage collateralised business only; value does not take into account any collateral other than mortgages

Facts and Figures

Group P&L Q3 2008 Q3 2008 Q3 2007 Change mn mn % Net interest income 117 100 17.0% Net loan loss provisions 20 19 5.3% Net interest income after net loan loss provisions 97 81 19.8% Net commission income 34 32 6.3% Net result on hedge accounting 1-1 - Net trading income 25-13 - Results from non-trading assets -37 162 - Results from companies accounted for at equity 63-100.0% Results from investment properties 0 0 - Administrative expenses 84 93-9.7% Net other operating income -5-10 -50.0% Impairment of goodwill - Operating Profit 31 221-86.0% Income taxes 11 33-66.7% Consolidated net income / loss 20 188-89.4% Allocation of results Consolidated net income / loss attributable to minority interests Consolidated net income / loss attributable to 5 5 0.0% shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 15 183-91.8% 23

Segment reporting Q3 2008 Quarter 3 2008 mn mn mn mn Quarter 3 2007 Quarter 3 2008 Quarter 3 2007 Quarter 3 2008 Quarter 3 2007 Quarter 3 2008 Net interest income 99 83 0 0 18 17 117 100 Provision for loan losses 20 19 20 19 Net interest income after net loan loss provisions 79 64 0 0 18 17 97 81 Net commission income 7 4 46 46-19 -18 34 32 Net result on hedge accounting 1-1 1-1 Net trading income / expenses 25-13 25-13 Results from non-trading assets -37 9 0 153-37 162 Results from companies accounted for at equity 63 63 Results from investment properties 0 0 0 0 0 0 Administrative expenses 50 55 35 40-1 -2 84 93 Net other operating income / expenses -5-7 0-2 0-1 -5-10 Impairment of goodwill Structured Property Financing Consulting/ Services Consolidation/ Reconciliation/ Other Aareal Bank Group Operating profit 20 64 11 157 0 0 31 221 Income taxes 8 29 3 4 11 33 Consolidated net income / loss 12 35 8 153 0 0 20 188 Quarter 3 2007 Allocation of results Consolidated net income / loss attributable to minority interests Consolidated net income / loss attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 4 4 1 1 5 5 8 31 7 152 0 0 15 183 Allocated equity 981 844 73 73 266 237 1,320 1,154 Cost/income ratio in % 59.5 46.2 78.7 21.7 65.2 31.9 RoE after taxes in % 3.3 14.5 38.8 834.2 4.5 63.3 24

Definitions and Contacts

Definitions Property Financing Portfolio Paid-out financings on balance sheet Incl. remaining property loans on DEPFA books New Business Newly acquired business incl. renewals (excl. interest rate extensions) Contract is signed by costumer Fixed loan value and margin Net RoE = Group net income after minority interests Allocated (average) equity Allocated Equity Average of: Equity minus minorities and revaluation surplus (start of period less dividends) and Equity minus minorities and revaluation surplus (end of period less expected dividends) CIR = Admin expenses + other operating expenses Net income Net Income net interest income +net commission income + net result from hedge accounting + net trading income + results from nontrading assets + results from investments accounted for at equity + results from investment properties + other operating income 26

Contacts Jürgen Junginger Managing Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 2636 juergen.junginger@aareal-bank.com Alexandra Beust Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3053 alexandra.beust@aareal-bank.com Nicole Schüttforth Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3044 nicole.schuettforth@aareal-bank.com 27

Disclaimer 28 2008 Aareal Bank AG. All rights reserved. This document has been prepared by Aareal Bank AG, exclusively for the purposes of a corporate presentation by Aareal Bank AG. The presentation is intended for professional and institutional customers only. It must not be modified or disclosed to third parties without the explicit permission of Aareal Bank AG. Any persons who may come into possession of this information and these documents must inform themselves of the relevant legal provisions applicable to the receipt and disclosure of such information, and must comply with such provisions. This presentation may not be distributed in or into any jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted by law. This presentation is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to enter into a contract on the provision of advisory services or an offer to purchase securities. Aareal Bank AG has merely compiled the information on which this document is based from sources considered to be reliable without, however, having verified it. Therefore, Aareal Bank AG does not give any warranty, and makes no representation as to the completeness or correctness of any information or opinion contained herein. Aareal Bank AG accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements or trend information that are based on current plans, views and/or assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, most of them being difficult to predict and generally beyond Aareal Bank AG s control. This could lead to material differences between the actual future results, performance and/or events and those expressed or implied by such statements. Aareal Bank AG assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or any other information contained herein.