Company Note May 27, 2015 Cheil Industries (028260) 12M rating BUY (Maintain) 12M TP W255,000 from W200,000 Up/downside +36% Stock Data KOSPI (May 26, pt) 2,144 Stock price (May 26, KRW) 188,000 Market cap (USD mn) 23,052 Shares outstanding (mn) 135 52-Week high/low (KRW) 188,000/113,000 6M avg. daily turnover (USD mn) 153.4 Free float / Foreign ownership (%) 29.4/2.8 Major shareholders (%) Jae-Yong Lee and 9 others 52.3 KCC Corporation 10.2 Performance 1M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 10.9 0.0 0.0 Relative to KOSPI (%p) 11.7 0.0 0.0 12MF PE trend (X) 12MF PER (LHS) (W' 000) 300 140.0 price (RHS) 250 120.0 100.0 200 80.0 150 60.0 100 40.0 50 20.0 0.0 0 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: WISEfn consensus Exceeding market expectations again Concerns over overvaluation fading 1) From a long-term perspective, we believe Electronics (SEC) will lift its dividend payout given Cheil Industries (Cheil) s ownership position. Of note, 2016 NP of the Cheil- C&T merged entity is forecast to grow 21.2% assuming SEC s dividend payout ratio rises to 20%. As such, overvaluation concerns should fade as dividend income from SEC ramps up, especially as Cheil should increase its ownership stake as part of a transition to a holding company. 2) Cheil secured brand royalties from C&T via this merger, and the new entity should retain brand royalties from key affiliates, e.g., SEC after a merger with the SEC holdings company. Cheil- C&T entity to be major shareholder of Biologics After the merger, Cheil- C&T is expected to own 19.34% of Life, 4.1% of SEC and 51.4% of Biologics. Currently, Cheil does not book any equity method gains as the Life and SEC stakes have been classified as available-for-sale securities. However, earnings from Biologics will be consolidated as Cheil- C&T will become the largest shareholder. And, we expect Biologics to reach a meaningful earnings level from 2H16 on sales of SB4, the Enbrel biosimilar, in Europe. During an IR session, the group announced early achievement of its original plan (sales of W1.8tn, OPM 40% targeted for 2020) appears possible given the robust bio business growth. NAV per share calculated at W255,000 NAV per share less treasury stock is calculated at W255,000, equivalent to a fair market cap of W42.3tn. As such, we revise up our TP by 27.5% from W200,000 to W255,000. 1) We increased the operating value of the construction business to W6.7tn (including C&T s trading business), 2) we reflected fair value of W12.7tn on securities held by C&T, including a 4.1% stake in SEC and a 17.1% stake in SDS, and 3) we reflected an additional 5.75% stake in Biologics while deducting net debt from C&T. Of note, additional operating value was reflected as C&T has traded at a discount to asset value. To reflect the holding company transition, we discounted future cash flows, including dividend income and brand royalties, by 70% in our DCF valuation. While we reflected EPS dilution during the merger process, we expect to revise our discount rate and TP as the transition gains traction. Taeho Yoon 822-3276-5956 taeho3123@truefriend.com Seoyeon Kim 822-3276-6246 seoyeon.kim@truefriend.com Yr to Sales OP NP EPS % chg EBITDA PE EV/EBITDA PB ROE DY Dec (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (KRW) (YoY) (W bn) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) 2013A 3,226 111 45 18,086 1,408.5 210 NM 7.1 NM 1.2-2014A 5,130 213 456 3,375 (81.3) 357 46.8 61.7 178.3 9.9-2015F 5,188 189 122 900 (73.3) 359 208.9 73.5 3.9 2.2-2016F 5,992 248 160 1,189 32.0 446 158.1 59.7 3.7 2.7-2017F 6,698 281 185 1,370 15.3 511 137.2 52.3 3.4 2.8 - Note: Net profit and EPS are based on figures attributed to controlling interest Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Table 1. Comparison between Cheil Industries and C&T 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F (W bn, 000 shares, X, KRW) Cheil(A) C&T(B) (A)+(B) Cheil(A) C&T(B) (A)+(B) Cheil(A) C&T(B) (A)+(B) Cheil(A) C&T(B) (A)+(B) Sales 5,130 28,446 33,576 5,188 26,986 32,173 5,992 27,579 33,571 6,698 27,948 34,645 Operating profit 213 652 865 189 456 645 248 529 777 281 558 839 EBT 147 457 604 160 387 548 211 455 666 244 504 748 Net income 455 286 741 121 271 393 160 318 478 185 353 538 (adj. dividend income from SEC) 88 480 102 580 113 651 controlling NP 456 271 727 122 246 456 160 293 555 185 328 626 Shareholders' equity 5,285 13,672 18,958 5,745 15,993 21,738 6,247 18,361 24,608 6,773 20,763 27,537 Market cap 21,505 8,712 30,216 21,505 8,712 30,216 21,505 8,712 30,216 21,505 8,712 30,216 # of shares 135,000 156,218 189,690 135,000 156,218 189,690 135,000 156,218 189,690 135,000 156,218 189,690 outstanding PER 47.2 32.1 41.6 176.9 35.4 66.3 134.0 29.7 54.4 116.2 26.6 48.3 EPS 3,375 1,735 3,831 900 1,576 2,401 1,189 1,877 2,928 1,370 2,100 3,301 PBR 4.1 0.6 1.6 3.7 0.5 1.4 3.4 0.5 1.2 3.2 0.4 1.1 BPS 39,150 87,522 99,941 42,558 102,377 114,600 46,276 117,533 129,728 50,173 132,912 145,167 Note: Price calculated in merger applied Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities Table 2. Deal details (KRW) Existing entity Cheil Industries Merged entity C&T Share exchange ratio 1 : 0.3500885 Common shares 189,690 Preferred shares 1,627 % of treasury stock 12.7 Standard price Common shares Cheil Industries 159,294 C&T 55,767 Preferred shares Cheil Industries 99,432 C&T 34,810 Exercise price in appraisal right Cheil Industries 156,493 C&T Common stock 57,234 C&T Preferred stock 34,886 Major schedules Date of board decisions May 26 Announcement in holding a shareholders' meeting July 2 Expected date of shareholders' meeting July 17 Periods available for exercising appraisal right July 17~August 6 Periods offered for creditors to submit objection July 18~August 18 Date of merger September 1 Issuance of new shares September 14 Listing of new shares September 15 Source: Korea Investment & Securities 2
Table 3. Changes in major shareholders post-merger (shares, %) Cheil Industries C&T Merged entity # of % of Shareholder shareholding shareholding Shareholder # of shareholding % of shareholding Shareholder # of % of shareholding shareholding Jae-Yong Lee 31,369,500 23.2 Keon-Hee Lee 2,206,110 1.4 Keon-Hee Lee 5,425,734 2.9 KCC 13,750,000 10.2 NPS 20,537,217 13.1 Jae-Yong Lee 31,369,500 16.5 Bu-Jin Lee 10,456,450 7.7 SDI 11,547,819 7.4 Bu-Jin Lee 10,456,450 5.5 Seo-Hyun Lee 10,456,450 7.7 F&M 7,476,102 4.8 Seo-Hyeon Lee 10,456,450 5.5 Keon-Hee Lee 4,653,400 Welfare 3.4 Foundation 231,217 Other special 0.1 relatives 709,194 0.4 Yoo-Jeong 600,000 0.4 Foundation of Lee Culture 123,072 0.1 SDI 9,042,759 4.8 Woon-Hae Cho 100,000 0.1 Shin Kim 26,261 0.0 SEMCO 5,000,000 2.6 SEMCO 5,000,000 3.7 Treasury stock 8,990,557 5.8 F&M 2,617,297 1.4 SDI 5,000,000 3.7 Foundation of 1,144,086 0.6 Culture C&T 1,849,850 1.4 Welfare 80,946 0.0 Foundation Foundation of 1,101,000 0.8 KCC 13,750,000 7.2 Culture Treasury stock 19,033,800 14.1 Treasury stock 24,031,141 12.7 Outstanding shares Note: As of end-march 2015 135,000,000 100.0 Outstanding shares 156,217,764 100.0 Outstanding shares Source: DART, Korea Investment & Securities 189,690,043 100.0 Figure 1. group ownership structure post-merger Keon-Hee Lee and relatives 4.8% 2.6% Biologics 51.4% 30.4% Cheil Industries 12.7% 1.4% 19.3% 20.8% Life 5.5% 15.0% SDS 0.04% 17.1% F&M 12.4% 22.6% 4.1% 7.2% Card 0.4% 34.4% SDI0.05% 19.6% SEC 12.1% 1.3% 11.1% Securities 5.5% SEMCO 0.05% 23.7% Note: As of end-december 2014/ Price calculated in merger applied Source: DART, Korea Investment & Securities 3
Table 4. Cheil Industries SotP valuation Cheil (A) C&T (B) Merged entity (A)+(B) Assumption (A) Operating value = 6,408 5,690 12,099 (a)+(b)+(c)+(d) (a) Operating value of fashion W bn 2,153 2,153 business EBITDA W bn 144 2015F EBITDA EV/EBITDA x 14.9 Average of Hansom(manufacturer), Shinsegae International(importer) Operating income W bn 106 2015F Operating income (b) Operating value of food business W bn 2,783 2,783 EBITDA W bn 166 2015F EBITDA EV/EBITDA x 16.7 Shinsegae food EV/EBITDA Operating income W bn 136 2015F Operating income (c) Operating value of construction business W bn 995 5,690 6,685 EBITDA W bn 86 633 718 Simple addition to 2015F EBITDA on 2015F OP of C&T EV/EBITDA x 11.6 9.0 9.3 20% discount over industry average Operating income W bn 73 456 2015F Operating income (d) Revised Operating value of leisure business W bn 477 477 Land of resort is not included Operating value of leisure business W bn 553 EBITDA W bn 78 2015F EBITDA EV/EBITDA x 7.1 global peer - 40% discount Operating income W bn 22 2015F Operating income (B) Non-operating value = (e)+(f)+(g) 14,037 13,627 27,664 (e) Real estate W bn 2,365-50% hilly area 2014 appraisal value of Everland s appraisal site - 27% allowed for development Nearby land value (forest, housing sites) - 23% for facility Land value of Lakeside Country Club (f) Securities W bn 4,551 12,730 Close-May 26 - SEC 4.06% 8,145 - Life 19.34% 4,487 - SDS 17.08% 3,747 - Cheil Worldwide 12.64% 317 - Engineering 7.81% 125 - Fine Chem 5.59% 61 - Securities 0.26% 12 - Heavy Industries 0.13% 6 - imarket Korea 0.47% 5 - Other securities (not listed) 53 323 Book value as of December 2014 (g) Biologics stake value W bn 7,121.2 897.0 8,018.2 Subtract net debt from operating value of Bioepis and Biologics - Estimated market cap. of W bn Biologics 15,600 15,600 Biologics: Apply PS of Celltrion and Isu Abxis - % of holding stake % 45.65% 5.75% (C) Premiums on holding firm transition 4,780 4,780 - discount factor 70.0% Apply discount factor considering the future value - value in holding firm transition 15,932 7.0% of WACC effective in calculating PV of dividend income and brand royalties - dividend income from affiliates 9,525 20% of dividend payout ratio effective - brand royalties income 6,406 0.5% of sales from SEC, C&T, Life and F&M (D) Net debt 1,120 1,154 2,274 Subtract short-term financial asset value from financial debt (both short and long-term debt incl.) value, as of end-2014 Debt 1,496 3,454 4,950 Cash&CE 373 1,801 2,174 Non-controlling equity 2 500 502 (D) Total enterprise value = (A)+(B)+(C)-(D) 42,268 Shares outstanding Share 189,690,043 Total outstanding shares Treasury stock Share 24,033,447 Treasury stocks of 12.7% NAV/share (excl. treasury stock) W 255,000 Subtract treasury stocks Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities 4
Balance sheet FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Current assets 1,753 1,980 2,002 2,313 2,585 Cash & cash equivalent 152 305 308 356 398 Accounts & other receivables 1,007 991 1,002 1,158 1,294 Inventory 452 536 542 626 699 Non-current assets 6,801 7,531 8,310 9,127 9,915 Investment assets 4,250 4,937 5,450 5,909 6,319 Tangible assets 2,118 2,132 2,392 2,677 2,991 Intangible assets 238 275 278 321 359 Total assets 8,554 9,511 10,312 11,440 12,500 Current liabilities 1,841 1,266 1,103 1,313 1,589 Accounts & other payables 592 634 641 741 828 ST debt & bond 751 63 63 77 93 Current portion of LT debt 275 312 159 193 235 Non-current liabilities 2,764 2,961 3,464 3,880 4,138 Debentures 798 1,297 1,609 1,805 1,927 LT debt & financial liabilities 506 88 261 295 287 Total liabilities 4,605 4,226 4,567 5,193 5,727 Controlling interest 3,946 5,283 5,744 6,246 6,773 Capital stock 13 14 14 14 14 Capital surplus 52 575 575 575 575 Other Reserves (693) (693) (693) (693) (693) Retained earnings 2,038 2,482 2,597 2,754 2,936 Minority interest 3 2 2 1 0 Shareholders' equity 3,949 5,285 5,745 6,247 6,773 Income statement FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Sales 3,226 5,130 5,188 5,992 6,698 COGS 2,642 3,497 3,625 4,190 4,721 Gross profit 584 1,633 1,563 1,802 1,976 SG&A expense 473 1,419 1,373 1,554 1,695 Operating profit 111 213 189 248 281 Financial income 62 47 52 57 64 Interest income 4 12 16 18 20 Financial expense 46 65 63 71 78 Interest expense 44 65 62 71 78 Other non-operating profit (53) (11) (18) (22) (23) Gains (Losses) in associates, subsidiaries and JV (70) (37) 0 0 0 Earnings before tax 5 147 160 211 244 Income taxes 10 55 39 51 59 Net profit 45 455 121 160 185 Net profit of controlling interest 45 456 122 160 185 Other comprehensive profit 290 356 345 345 345 Total comprehensive profit 335 812 466 505 530 Total comprehensive profit of controlling interest 335 812 467 506 531 EBITDA 210 357 359 446 511 Cash flow FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F C/F from operating 235 143 280 446 546 Net profit 45 455 121 160 185 Depreciation 99 144 170 198 230 Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 Net incr. in W/C (48) (118) (11) 85 129 Others 139 (338) 0 3 2 C/F from investing (1,248) 54 (603) (672) (674) CAPEX (163) (186) (432) (487) (547) Decr. in fixed assets 3 5 3 3 3 Incr. in investment (35) (301) (168) (114) (64) Net incr. in intangible assets (3) (16) (3) (43) (38) Others (1,050) 552 (3) (31) (28) C/F from financing 1,131 (46) 326 274 170 Incr. in equity 0 525 0 0 0 Incr. in debts 1,327 (568) 333 277 174 Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Others (196) (3) (7) (3) (4) C/F from others (1) 1 0 0 0 Increase in cash 117 153 3 48 42 Key financial data FY-ending Dec. 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F per share data (KRW) EPS 18,086 3,375 900 1,189 1,370 BPS 37,136 886 47,690 51,409 55,305 DPS 0 0 0 0 0 Growth (%) Sales growth 19.4 59.0 1.1 15.5 11.8 OP growth 60.4 92.1 (11.3) 31.1 13.4 NP growth (67.9) 907.7 (73.3) 32.0 15.3 EPS growth 1,408.5 (81.3) (73.3) 32.0 15.3 EBITDA growth 203.9 69.8 0.5 24.3 14.6 Profitability (%) OP margin 3.4 4.2 3.6 4.1 4.2 NP margin 1.4 8.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 EBITDA margin 6.5 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 ROA 0.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 ROE 1.2 9.9 2.2 2.7 2.8 Dividend yield - - - - - Dividend payout ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stability Net debt (W bn) 2,171 1,385 1,713 1,931 2,053 Debt/equity ratio (%) 59.0 33.3 36.4 37.9 37.5 Valuation (X) PE NM 46.8 208.9 158.1 137.2 PB NM 178.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 EV/EBITDA 7.1 61.7 73.5 59.7 52.3 Note: Based on K-IFRS (consolidated) 5
Changes to recommendation and price target Company (Code) Date Recommendation Price target Cheil Indus. (028260) 12-16-14 BUY W107,000 04-21-15 BUY W200,000 05-27-15 BUY W255,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 6
Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. stock ratings based on 12-month forward share price performance relative to the market index BUY: Expected to outperform the market index by 15%p or more Hold: Expected to underperform or outperform the market index by less than 15%p Underweight: Expected to underperform the market index by 15%p or more Korea Investment & Securities does not offer target prices for stocks with Hold or Underweight ratings. Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. sector ratings for the next 12 months Overweight: Recommend increasing the sector s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. Neutral: Recommend maintaining the sector s weighting in the portfolio in line with its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. Underweight: Recommend reducing the sector s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. Analyst Certification I/We, as the research analyst/analysts who prepared this report, do hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities and issuers discussed in this report. I/We do hereby also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Important compliance notice As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or the public appearance (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month), Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Cheil Indus.. There is no actual, material conflict of interest of the research analyst or Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates known at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Cheil Indus. in the past 12 months; Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not received compensation for investment banking services from Cheil Indus. in the past 12 months; Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Cheil Indus. in the next 3 months. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates was not making a market in Cheil Indus. s securities at the time that the research report was published. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. does not own over 1% of Cheil Indus. shares as of May 27, 2015. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. has not provided this report to various third parties. Neither the analyst/analysts who prepared this report nor their associates own any shares of the company/companies covered in this report as of May 27, 2015. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. has issued ELW with underlying stocks of Cheil Indus. and is the liquidity provider. Prepared by: Taeho Yoon 7
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