MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR (M 3 ) December 2015 January 4th, 2015 THE LATEST MONTHLY MARKET RETURNS FROM THE RICHARDSON GMP TEAM GLOBAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE Americas Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD BRIC Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD S&P/TSX Composite 13,010-3.4-2.2-10.6-11.1-11.1 Brazil 43,350-3.9-3.8-18.3-13.3-13.3 S&P/TSX Comp TR 40,882-3.1-1.4-9.1-8.3-8.3 Russia 757-10.6-4.1-19.5-4.3-4.3 S&P 500 2,044-1.8 6.5-0.9-0.7-0.7 India 26,118-0.1-0.1-6.0-5.0-5.0 S&P 500 Total Return 3,822-1.6 7.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 China 3,539 2.7 15.9-17.3 9.4 9.4 Dow Jones Ind Avg 17,425-1.7 7.0-1.1-2.2-2.2 NASDAQ Comp 5,007-2.0 8.4 0.4 5.7 5.7 MSCI Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Mexico Bolsa 42,978-1.0 0.8-4.6-0.4-0.4 World 1,663-1.9 5.1-4.2-2.7-2.7 S&P/TSX Venture Composite 526 0.4 0.2-21.7-24.4-24.4 EAFE 1,716-1.4 4.4-6.8-3.3-3.3 Russell 2000 1,136-5.2 3.2-9.4-5.7-5.7 Emerging Markets 794-2.5 0.3-18.3-17.0-17.0 Europe Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD EURO STOXX 50 3,268-6.8 5.4-4.6 3.8 3.8 Foreign Indices in CAD$ 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD England (FTSE) 6,242-1.8 3.0-4.3-4.9-4.9 S&P 500 1.8 10.7 9.7 18.2 18.2 France (CAC 40) 4,637-6.5 4.1-3.2 8.5 8.5 S&P 500 Total Return 1.9 11.3 10.9 20.7 20.7 Germany (DAX) 10,743-5.6 11.2-1.8 9.6 9.6 EURO STOXX 50-0.8 6.5 3.0 11.0 11.0 Spain (IBEX) 9,544-8.1-0.2-11.4-7.2-7.2 MSCI World 1.6 9.3 6.1 15.8 15.8 MSCI EAFE 2.1 8.5 3.2 15.2 15.2 Asia Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD MSCI Emerging 1.0 4.2-9.5-1.1-1.1 Japan (Nikkei) 19,034-3.6 9.5-5.9 9.1 9.1 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 21,914-0.4 5.1-16.5-7.2-7.2 Fixed Income 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Australia (ASX 200) 5,296 2.5 5.5-3.0-2.1-2.1 FTSE TMX Universe Bond 1.13 0.97 1.12 3.52 3.52 Note: Returns are in local currency unless otherw ise indicated MARKET QUILT 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD TSX Composite -3% 30% 6% -14% -14% 24% 12% 22% 15% 7% -35% 31% 14% -11% 4% 10% 7% -11% S&P 500 27% 20% -10% -13% -23% 26% 9% 3% 14% 4% -38% 23% 13% 0% 13% 30% 11% -1% NASDAQ 40% 86% -39% -21% -32% 50% 9% 1% 10% 10% -41% 44% 17% -2% 16% 38% 13% 6% U.S. Small Cap -3% 20% -4% 1% -22% 45% 17% 3% 17% -3% -35% 25% 25% -5% 15% 37% 4% -6% Europe 32% 47% -3% -20% -37% 16% 7% 21% 15% 7% -44% 21% -6% -17% 14% 18% 1% 4% Japan -9% 37% -27% -24% -19% 24% 8% 40% 7% -11% -42% 19% -3% -17% 23% 57% 7% 9% EAFE 18% 25% -15% -23% -18% 35% 18% 11% 23% 9% -45% 28% 5% -15% 14% 19% -7% -3% Emerging -28% 64% -32% -5% -8% 52% 22% 30% 29% 36% -54% 74% 16% -20% 15% -5% -5% -17% Canadian Short Bonds 6% 4% 7% 9% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 8% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Canadian Long Bonds 12% -6% 13% 5% 11% 8% 10% 15% 3% 5% 12% -5% 12% 20% 5% -9% 17% 6% US Short Bonds 7% 3% 8% 8% 6% 2% 1% 2% 4% 7% 7% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% US Long Bonds 14% -9% 20% 4% 17% 2% 8% 6% 2% 10% 25% -13% 10% 29% 4% -13% 25% -1% Gold 0% 0% -5% 2% 25% 19% 6% 18% 23% 31% 6% 24% 30% 10% 7% -28% -2% -10% S&P/TSX Venture 4% 63% 4% 23% 34% -5% -72% 91% 50% -35% -18% -24% -25% -24% Note: Returns are in local currency terms
SECTOR PERFORMANCE (local returns) TSX Sector S&P 500 Sector Performance 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Weight Performance 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Weight Materials -2.4 3.1-22.6-22.8-22.8 9.1 Materials (US) -4.4 9.1-9.8-10.4-10.4 2.8 Energy -5.6-2.6-20.1-25.7-25.7 18.8 Energy (US) -10.0-0.6-18.6-23.6-23.6 6.3 Industrials -4.6-1.6-4.1-12.5-12.5 7.6 Industrials (US) -2.2 7.4-0.6-4.7-4.7 9.9 Consumer Disc -5.7-5.7-9.6-3.5-3.5 7.9 Consumer Disc (US) -3.0 5.4 2.3 8.4 8.4 13.1 Consumer Staples -0.3 0.5 8.1 11.0 11.0 5.5 Consumer Staples (US) 2.5 6.9 6.0 3.8 3.8 11.0 Health Care 14.5-36.9-46.8-15.8-15.8 3.0 Health Care (US) 1.6 8.8-3.2 5.2 5.2 14.9 Financials -3.5 0.6-3.5-5.5-5.5 37.6 Financials (US) -2.4 5.4-2.2-3.5-3.5 16.0 Info Tech 1.0 10.3 13.1 14.8 14.8 3.1 Info Tech (US) -2.3 8.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 20.6 Telecom Svs -7.7-2.8-1.3-1.0-1.0 4.9 Telecom Svs (US) 1.7 6.2-2.3-1.7-1.7 2.4 Utilities 1.8-2.6-1.4-7.8-7.8 2.4 Utilities (US) 1.8 0.1 4.5-8.4-8.4 2.9 COMMODITIES Energy Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Precious Metals Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Nat Gas (US/MMBtu) $2.34 2.1-17.8-27.8-33.8-33.8 Gold (US/oz) $1,060-0.5-5.0-9.8-10.8-10.8 WTI Crude (US/bbl) $37.04-13.8-20.8-39.6-38.8-38.8 Silver (US/oz) $13.80-2.0-5.2-12.0-12.5-12.5 Gasoline (USd/gal) 127.10-3.1-6.2-26.6-22.2-22.2 Grains Heating Oil (USd/gal) 112.39-18.4-29.3-43.1-42.1-42.1 Corn (US/bu) $3.59-1.7-7.5-13.3-9.6-9.6 Industrials Wheat (US/bu) $4.70 2.2-8.3-23.5-20.3-20.3 Aluminum (US/lb) $0.68 3.8-5.2-12.5-20.4-20.4 Soybeans (US/bu) $8.71-1.1-2.3-17.5-14.5-14.5 Nickel (US/lb) $3.99-1.1-15.5-27.0-42.4-42.4 Livestock Copper (US/lb) $2.13 2.6-8.8-18.4-25.3-25.3 Hogs (US/lb) $0.60 5.3-13.4-12.0-18.5-18.5 Lead (US/lb) $0.81 8.9 7.2 1.9-3.5-3.5 Cattle (US/lb) $1.37 3.4 2.6-10.0-11.3-11.3 Tin (US/lb) $6.60-3.3-6.2 4.6-25.0-25.0 Soft Commodities Zinc (US/lb) $0.73 2.9-4.7-19.6-26.1-26.1 Cocoa (US/MT) $3,211-3.8 3.0-1.2 13.1 13.1 Lumber (US/1000bf) $258 4.8 12.4-10.6-22.2-22.2 Sugar (USD/lb) $15.24 2.1 18.3 10.8-7.2-7.2 Cotton (USD/lb) 63.28 1.0 4.9-6.0-3.3-3.3 FCOJ (USD/lb) $144.65 2.0 32.3 17.2-0.7-0.7 Coffee (USD/lb) $126.70 5.9 1.8-9.2-29.2-29.2 CURRENCIES AND BONDS Canadian Yields Current -1mo -3mo -6mo -12mo EFFAS Gov Bonds 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD 3M T-bills 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.58 0.92 All 1.17 0.59 1.73 3.72 3.72 2-yr Govt Bonds 0.48 0.63 0.52 0.48 1.01 1-5 years 0.45 0.27 0.42 2.17 2.17 5-yr Govt Bonds 0.73 0.91 0.80 0.82 1.34 5-10 years 1.32 0.61 2.49 5.24 5.24 10-yr Govt Bonds 1.39 1.57 1.43 1.68 1.79 10+ years 2.34 1.14 3.61 5.64 5.64 30-yr Govt Bonds 2.15 2.29 2.20 2.30 2.34 Currency Levels Current -1mo -3mo -6mo -12mo U.S. Yields Canadian Spot 1.3839 1.3362 1.3313 1.2494 1.1621 3M T-bills 0.16 0.17-0.02 0.01 0.04 Cdn - Euro 0.6655 0.7085 0.6720 0.7186 0.7112 2-yr Treasury Bonds 1.05 0.93 0.63 0.64 0.66 Cdn - Australian 0.9915 1.0355 1.0704 1.0385 1.0530 5-yr Treasury Bonds 1.76 1.64 1.36 1.65 1.65 Euro - US 1.0862 1.0565 1.1177 1.1147 1.2098 10-yr Treasury Bonds 2.27 2.21 2.04 2.35 2.17 Yen - US 120.22 123.11 119.88 122.50 119.78 30-yr Treasury Bonds 3.02 2.97 2.85 3.12 2.75 British Pound - US 1.4736 1.5056 1.5128 1.5712 1.5577 Trade Weighted Dollar 98.63 100.17 96.35 95.49 90.27 Blended Benchmark Returns (S&P/TSX Composite TR and FTSE TMX Universe Bond) 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD 75% TSX TR / 25% Bonds -2.02-0.80-6.58-5.36-5.36 60% TSX TR / 40% Bonds -1.39-0.45-5.04-3.58-3.58 30% TSX TR / 70% Bonds -0.13 0.26-1.96-0.03-0.03
Long Term Returns (local annualized) YTD 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr S&P/TSX Comp (price) -11.1-11.1-2.3 1.5-0.7 5.4 1.4 2.5 S&P/TSX Total Return -8.3-8.3 0.7 4.6 2.3 8.6 4.4 5.1 S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP IDX -24.4-24.4-24.9-24.5-25.5-5.8-13.5 S&P 500 (price) -0.7-0.7 5.2 12.7 10.2 12.4 5.1 3.0 S&P 500 Total Return 1.4 1.4 7.4 15.1 12.6 14.8 7.3 5.0 NASDAQ (price) 5.7 5.7 9.5 18.4 13.5 17.9 8.5 4.8 Europe EURO STOXX 50 3.8 3.8 2.5 7.4 3.2 4.2-0.9-2.5 S&P Europe 350 5.2 5.2 4.9 8.9 5.6 8.5 1.4-0.2 England (FTSE) -4.9-4.9-3.8 1.9 1.1 5.0 1.1 0.0 France (CAC 40) 8.5 8.5 3.9 8.4 4.0 5.4-0.2-1.6 Germany (DAX) 9.6 9.6 6.1 12.2 9.2 12.2 7.1 3.5 Spain (IBEX) -7.2-7.2-1.9 5.3-0.6 0.5-1.2 0.3 Asia Japan (NIKKEI) 9.1 9.1 8.1 22.3 13.2 11.5 1.7 2.2 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -7.2-7.2-3.0-1.1-1.0 6.2 3.9 2.5 Australia (ASX 200) -2.1-2.1-0.5 4.4 2.2 5.2 1.1 3.4 BRIC Brazil -13.3-13.3-8.3-10.7-9.0 2.1 2.6 7.2 Russia -4.3-4.3-27.6-20.9-15.6 2.6-3.9 11.7 India -5.0-5.0 11.1 10.4 5.0 15.3 10.8 13.4 China 9.4 9.4 29.3 16.0 4.7 10.0 11.8 3.6 MSCI World -2.7-2.7 0.1 7.5 5.4 8.8 2.8 2.1 EAFE -3.3-3.3-5.3 2.3 0.7 4.8 0.2 0.9 Emerging Markets -17.0-17.0-11.0-9.0-7.2 4.9 1.2 5.9 Bonds All Government Bonds 3.7 3.7 5.4 2.8 4.0 3.5 4.4 5.3 FTSE TMX Universe Bond 3.5 3.5 6.1 3.6 4.8 5.2 Long Term Returns (C$ annualized) YTD 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr S&P 500 (price) 18.2 18.2 20.0 26.0 17.6 14.4 6.9 2.4 S&P 500 Total Return 20.7 20.7 22.5 28.6 20.2 16.9 9.2 4.4 NASDAQ (price) 25.9 25.9 25.0 32.3 21.2 20.1 10.5 4.3 Europe EURO STOXX 50 11.0 11.0 4.0 12.5 5.7 2.4 0.0-2.1 S&P Europe 350 12.5 12.5 6.5 14.0 8.1 6.5 2.3 0.2 England (FTSE) 7.1 7.1 3.6 10.2 6.7 7.1 1.2-0.6 France (CAC 40) 16.0 16.0 5.4 13.5 6.5 3.5 0.7-1.2 Germany (DAX) 17.1 17.1 7.6 17.5 11.8 10.2 8.1 3.9 Spain (IBEX) -0.7-0.7-0.5 10.3 1.7-1.2-0.3 0.7 Asia Japan (Nikkei) 29.3 29.3 15.4 22.6 11.7 9.1 3.3 1.3 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.5 5.8 8.1 5.8 2.0 Australia (ASX 200) 3.9 3.9 2.6 3.7 2.0 7.7 2.8 4.7 BRIC Brazil -31.0-31.0-19.1-19.9-18.3-3.7-0.9 Russia -9.3-9.3-44.5-33.8-24.3-7.8-10.9 India 7.9 7.9 22.4 15.8 3.6 12.4 8.5 China 24.5 24.5 42.5 27.8 12.2 12.7 16.3 MSCI World 15.8 15.8 14.2 20.1 12.5 10.8 4.6 1.5 EAFE 15.2 15.2 8.0 14.3 7.5 6.7 2.0 0.4 Emerging Markets -1.1-1.1 1.6 1.6-0.9 6.9 3.0 5.4 Bonds All Government Bonds 10.9 10.9 7.0 7.6 6.5 1.6 5.4 5.8
12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 7/17/15 8/1/15 8/16/15 8/31/15 9/15/15 9/30/15 10/15/15 10/30/15 11/14/15 11/29/15 12/14/15 12/29/15 S&P TSX Composite 1.18 1.23 1.28 1.33 1.38 USD/CAD 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 WTI Crude 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 S&P 500 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 EUR/USD 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Brent Crude 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 Euro Stoxx 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.59 GBP/USD 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 Natural Gas 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 Nikkei 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 AUD/USD 1000 1020 1040 1060 1080 1100 1120 1140 1160 1180 1200 Gold 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 NASDAQ 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 U.S. Dollar Index World Equities Currencies Commodities 13.00 13.50 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50 Silver
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