Samsung Electro-Mechanics 915 KS BNP PARIBAS Jay Han 25 SEPTEMBER 215 KOREA / SEMICONDUCTORS SAMSUNG ELECTRO-MECHANICS 915 KS HOLD UNCHANGED TARGET PRICE KRW57, CLOSE KRW63,1 UP/DOWNSIDE -9.7% PRIOR TP KRW5, CHANGE IN TP 14.% HOW WE DIFFER FROM CONSENSUS MARKET RECS TARGET PRICE (%) (21.9) POSITIVE 23 EPS 215 (%) 32. NEUTRAL 1 EPS 216 (%) (9.1) NEGATIVE Still in the woods KEY STOCK DATA YE Dec (KRW b) 214A 215E 216E 217E 3Q OP likely improve q-q on rush orders and FX tailwind Samsung launched Note 5 and Edge 6 Plus in August, 1-2 months earlier than usual, which led to rush orders. We estimate SEMCO s 3Q15 OP will grow 9% q-q to KRW88b, in line with BBG consensus. Besides, KRW/USD is at 1,193 vs the 1,97 2Q average. Each 1 KRW/USD change impacts our quarterly OP estimate by KRW4b. Component order likely muted in 4Q, ahead of early GS7 launch We shift our GS7 launch schedule assumption to Feb from Apr, which suggests SEMCO earnings will peak in 1Q rather than the usual 2Q. However, we expect Samsung to adjust inventory ahead of the early launch of GS7 and trigger muted component orders in 4Q. Samsung s price cut on GS6 (cusd1 globally) supports our thesis. Substrate challenges ahead We see downside risk in substrate business, on 1) ongoing losses in PC substrate, despite Intel Skylake, and 2) A1 foundry shift to TSMC from Samsung. TSMC s InFO WLP (which doesn t need substrate) could be a big threat to SEMCO s profitable FCCSP (mobile AP substrate, 22% of 215E OP). (Scenario analysis: Ex 5). Reiterate HOLD A strong USD offsets a weak substrate outlook and prompts increases in our earnings estimates. Our new TP of KRW57, is set at the 2H14 trough of.9x P/B (for 216E). In a saturated smartphone market, re-rerating potential is limited, given SEMCO s mobile-oriented business (82/97% of sales/op in 216E). Any jump on the back of overblown GS7 expectations is likely to be short-lived. Historical 12M fwd. P/BV trend (x) 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 +2 SD +1 SD Avg -1 SD -2 SD Revenue 7,144 6,539 6,238 6,491 Rec. net profit (3) 27 23 254 Recurring EPS (KRW) (34) 2,672 2,963 3,278 Prior rec. EPS (KRW) (34) 2,386 2,797 3,193 Chg. In EPS est. (%) n/m 12. 5.9 2.7 EPS growth (%) n/m n/m 1.9 1.7 Recurring P/E (x) n/a 23.6 21.3 19.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 8. 5.4 5.1 4.8 Price/book (x) 1.1 1. 1. 1. Net debt/equity (%) 5.1 (5.8) (7.6) (8.9) ROE (%) (.1) 4.5 4.7 5. Sep-14 85, Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 8 72,5 55 6, 3 47,5 5 35, (2) (KRW) (%) Samsung Electro-Mechanics Rel to MSCI Korea Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month Absolute (%) 21.8 18.2 18.8 Relative to country (%) 17.9 28.9 33.8 Next Results October 215 Mkt cap (USD m) 3,956 3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 22.3 Free float (%) 7 Major shareholder Samsung Electronics (24%) 12m high/low (KRW) 81,8/4, 3m historic vol. (%) 42. ADR ticker - ADR closing price (USD) - Issued shares (m) 75 Sources: FactSet estimates; BNP Paribas estimates Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas estimates Jay Han jay.han@asia.bnpparibas.com +822 2125 546 Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, FactSet and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. PREPARED AND PUBLISHED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES KOREA CO LTD. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 12
Investment thesis We estimate 61% of SEMCO s 215 sales will be attributable to Samsung Electronics (SEC, 593 KS). Therefore, stabilisation of SEC s mobile division should be positive for SEMCO s earnings. SEMCO is restructuring loss-making HDD motors (discontinued) and other non-core products (power, tuners, electronic shelf labels spun off). Assuming the spun-off businesses will be removed from the income statement from 3Q15 (HDD motors were removed in 2Q15), we estimate the restructuring will likely reduce total sales by ckrw5b but increase OP by KRW21b in 215E. The company announced a new business roadmap for automotives, IoT and wearables. However, in contrast to smartphones, SEMCO does not have captive customers in this field. SEMCO is currently supplying camera modules and MLCCs to automotive customers, but their revenue contribution is negligible. Also, the global automotive market is dominated by Japanese peers, while LGI (117 KS) looks better positioned for Korean automakers at the moment. Catalyst Better/worse-than-expected shipments for SEC s high-end smartphones than we currently assume could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings. Faster/slower-than-expected expansion in new growth drivers, such as automotive components and wireless charging. Non-operational catalysts include: 1) a favourable FX environment; 2) the sale of its Cheil Industries (2826 KS) stake; and 3) further restructuring plans. Risk to our call The key up/downside risks to our P/B-based target price are stronger/weaker-than-expected smartphone and/or tablet sales by SEC and better/worse-than-expected TV and PC market growth. Company background Samsung Electro-Mechanics established in 1973 as a display component joint venture under Samsung-Sanyo Parts. SEMCO is a manufacturer of key electronic components, such as capacitors, camera modules, precision motors, substrates, tuners, etc. Key assumptions Samsung smartphone shipments (m units) 214 215E 216E Flagship model (GS/GS Note) 85 73 75 Mid-low end smartphone 232 24 237 Samsung smartphone shipments 317 312 312 Principal activities (revenue, 215E) Sources: Samsung Electro-Mechanics; BNP Paribas estimates Earnings sensitivity DM (Camera module, etc) 43% LCR (mostly MLCC) 32% ACI (substrate) 25% -------------------- OP -------------------- 215E 216E (KRW b) (KRW b) 1% KRW appreciation 283 37 Base 297 326 1% KRW depreciation 311 344 Source: BNP Paribas estimates Key executives Source: BNP Paribas estimates Age Joined Title Yoon Tae Lee 55 214 CEO Ja Hyun Koo 55 212 Vice President http://www.samsungsem.co.kr SEC accounts for 61% of total SEMCO sales in 215E. SEMCO's earnings are highly correlated to SEC's mobile growth. We estimate mobile components will account for 82% of SEMCO's overall sales and 97% of OP in 216. Our FX sensitivity analysis shows 1% KRW depreciation against the USD from our base case would increase OP by 6% in 215E, all else being equal 2 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Muted component orders in 4Q likely, ahead of early GS7 launch Samsung (593 KS) launched Note 5 and Edge 6 Plus in August, one to two months earlier than usual, to boost new flagship shipments ahead of the iphone 6S launch in September, by minimising the time gap between pre-launch event and actual sales. We estimate SEMCO s 3Q15 OP will grow 9% q-q to KRW88b, due mainly to Samsung s rush orders for this accelerated launch, and our estimate is in line with Bloomberg consensus. Exhibit 1: Samsung s flagship launch schedule Flagship Announcement Release Note1 Sep-11 Oct-11 GS3 May-12 May-12 Note2 Aug-12 Sep-12 GS4 Mar-13 Apr-13 Note3 Sep-13 Sep-13 GS5 Feb-14 Apr-14 Note4 Sep-14 Oct-14 GS6 Mar-15 Apr-15 Note5/Edge 6 Plus Aug-15 Aug-15 *GS7 Feb-16 Feb-16 Sources: GSM Arena; BNP Paribas estimates for GS7 We shift our GS7 launch schedule assumption to February 216 from April 216, assuming Samsung will use the same mobile strategy going forward as for Galaxy Note5/Galaxy S6 Edge Plus launch in 3Q15. We thus expect Samsung to deploy mobile component orders from early 216 and SEMCOs earnings to peak in 1Q vs the usual 2Q. We aggregated the reported 4Q sales of the Galaxy supply chain - Korea Circuit [substrate, 781 KS], BH [Substrate, 946 KS], Daeduck GDS [substrate [413 KS], Jahwa Electronics [camera actuator, [3324 KS], Partron [camera module, 917 KS], IM [Camera actuator, 1139 KS] which shows sales in this quarter are typically weak, in line with SEMCO s revenue seasonality, as Samsung adjusts inventory at the end of the fiscal year ahead of its new Galaxy launch in April. 214 was the exception, as Samsung aggressively pushed new mid- to low-end smartphones Galaxy A,E,J series in 4Q14 on disappointing GS5 shipments. We thus anticipate a sequential decline in 4Q15, forecasting 4Q15 OP of KRW68b (-22% q-q) due to Samsung`s inventory adjustment at fiscal year-end. Samsung announced a flexible pricing plan for GS6 in its 2Q15 earnings conference call, to boost volumes, and slashed the GS6 price by USD1 globally in August. As Samsung mobile will bring forward the launch schedule of GS7 to February 216 from April 216, it will likely watch inventory cautiously and digest GS6 inventory before the GS7 launch, which triggers muted component orders in 4Q15. 3 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Exhibit 2: SEMCO s revenue trend Exhibit 3: Galaxy supply chain s revenue trend (KRW b) 3, 2,5 2, Revenue (LHS) Change (RHS) Parity (RHS) (q-q %) 2 15 1 5 (KRW b) 1,2 1, 8 Aggregate sales (LHS) Change (RHS) Parity (RHS) (q-q %) 4 3 2 1,5 1, 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) 6 4 2 1 (1) (2) 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15E (25) 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 (3) Note: Due to spin-off, Tuner, power and ESL ( Electronic Shelf Label ) discontinued from 3Q15, which reduces 3Q15E revenue by KRW5b-6b Sources: SEMCO; BNP Paribas estimates Sources: Companies; BNP Paribas Exhibit 4: SEMCO s OP trend (KRW b) LCR (mostly MLCC) ACI (substrate) DM (Digital module) 12 1 8 6 4 2 (2) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E Sources: SEMCO; BNP Paribas estimates Substrate challenges ahead Aside from the core MLCC and camera module cash-cows, FCCSP (mobile AP substrate) has been profitable for SEMCO, accounting for 22% of SEMCO s total 215E OP. It has been offsetting weakness in PC substrate (FCBGA, double-digit loss) and HDI (mobile motherboard, single-digit loss), minimising losses in SEMCO s substrate division. FCCSP business has high technological barriers to entry and a diversified customer base (all major mobile AP are SEMCO s customers), and is the only growth driver among its substrates, in our view. However, we now see downside risk in FCCSP. In our scenario analysis, our best/worst case scenario changes EPS by 5% in 216E, all else being equal. (See: Exhibit 5). A foundry war between Samsung and TSMC (233 TT) to compete for Apple s (APPL US) mobile AP business has been affecting the competitive landscape of mobile AP substrate. SEMCO competes with Ibiden (462 JP) for Apple s FCCSP business, and its market share has changed based on the volume of Samsung foundry orders from Apple. In 214, TSMC pushed out Samsung for the production of Apple s A8 chip orders. As Ibiden took about 7% of A8 chip substrate allocation, SEMCO s FCCSP revenue ended up declining by 27% y-y with about 3% allocation. In 215, SEMCO s market share of Apple s FCCSP business is about 55%, and the rest is taken by Ibiden, thanks to Samsung winning back foundry of A9 chips at the expense of TSMC. We thus estimate 17% y-y growth of FCCSP in 215. 4 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
In 216, we expect Samsung to give up A1 chip business but secure other fabless customers, such as Qualcomm (QCOM US) to fully run its fab at high utilisation rates (216-217 outlook and catalysts, 27 Aug 215). Of note, TSMC is preparing InFO WLP (which doesn t need substrate) for A1, threatening the substrate industry. Substrate accounts for about 4-5% of packaging cost and customers can enjoy smaller form factors (no substrate), increased I/O density, excellent electrical/thermal performance, and so on. Although InFO WLP is still in its infancy, without a proven cost advantage yet, we expect FCCSP vendors to face strong headwinds and implement aggressive pricing to retain customers for a foreseeable future. Our base case scenario is that TSMC will be the major foundry of A1 chip in 216 and substrate will still be used given uncertainty over InFO WLP yield. Base case (TSMC major foundry, SEMCO takes 3% of AP substrate allocation): Forecast 19% y-y decline in FCCSP sales and 11% EPS growth in 216. Worst case (TSMC major foundry, substrate is no longer used on InFO WLP): Forecast 41% y-y decline of FCCSP sales and 5% EPS growth in 216. Best case (Samsung major foundry, SEMCO takes 55% of AP substrate allocation): Forecast 2% y-y decline of FCCSP sales and 16% EPS growth in 216. Exhibit 5: Key assumptions on FCCSP scenario analysis Key assumption 214 215 216E Apple FCCSP value (KRW b) 495.6 432.6 41.9 SEMCO FCCSP revenue (KRW b) 148.7 237.9 123.3 Order allocation (%) 3 55 3 Ibiden FCCSP revenue (KRW b) 346.9 194.7 287.6 Order allocation (%) 7 45 7 Major foundry TSMC Samsung TSMC Base case (TSMC major foundry, 3% of order allocation to SEMCO, substrate is used) SEMCO FCCSP total revenue 495.6 58.3 467.9 Change (y-y %) (27.3) 17.1 (19.4) SEMCO FCCSS OP 33.5 47.2 3.9 Change (y-y %) (65.4) 4.8 (34.6) SEMCO total recurring EPS (35.5) 2,776.1 3,77.8 Change (y-y %) nm nm 1.9 Worst case (TSMC major foundry. substrate is no longer used on InFO WLP) SEMCO FCCSP total revenue 495.6 58.3 343.5 Change (y-y %) (27.3) 17.1 (4.8) SEMCO FCCSS OP 33.5 47.2 14.2 Change (y-y %) (65.4) 4.8 (69.9) SEMCO total recurring EPS (35.5) 2,776.1 2,92.5 Change (y-y %) nm nm 5.2 Best case (Samsung major foundry 55% of order allocation to SEMCO, substrate is used) SEMCO FCCSP total revenue 495.6 58.3 569.5 Change (y-y %) (27.3) 17.1 (1.9) SEMCO FCCSS OP 33.5 47.2 47.2 Change (y-y %) (65.4) 4.8. SEMCO total recurring EPS (35.5) 2,776.1 3,231.9 Change (y-y %) nm nm 16.4 Note: Historical numbers based on our estimates. Source: BNP Paribas estimates 5 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Samsung Electro-Mechanics 915 KS Jay Han Exhibit 6: FCCSP sales trend by scenario Base case FCCSP sales (LHS) Base case (RHS) (KRW b) Worst case (RHS) Bulll case (RHS) 8 7 6 5 (y-y %) 1 8 6 4 4 (1.9) 2 3 2 ( 19.4) (2) 1 211 212 213 (4.8) 214 215E 216E (4) (6) Sources: SEMCO; BNP Paribas estimates Exhibit 7: Flip Chip vs InFo-WLP structure Source: TSMC 6 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Earnings, valuation and risks Exhibit 8: Earnings revisions ------------------ Old ------------------ ------------------ New ------------------ ------------------ Change ------------------ Consolidated (IFRS) 215E 216E 217E 215E 216E 217E 215E 216E 217E (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (%) (%) (%) Sales 6,395 5,96 6,21 6,539 6,238 6,491 2.3 5.6 4.5 LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 2,24 2,66 2,121 2,87 2,28 2,251 3.1 6.8 6.1 ACI (Substrate) 1,565 1,567 1,578 1,614 1,487 1,387 3.1 (5.1) (12.1) DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) 2,818 2,272 2,511 2,85 2,544 2,853 1.1 11.9 13.6 OP 268 39 349 297 326 357 1.7 5.4 2.4 LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 219 22 228 239 254 265 9.3 15.9 16. ACI (Substrate) (7) 18 37 (5) (17) (8) nm nm nm DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) 57 72 84 63 88 1 1.9 21.9 19.5 OPM (%) 4.2 5.2 5.6 4.5 5.2 5.5.3 ppt. ppt (.1 ppt) LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 1.8 1.6 1.8 11.4 11.5 11.8.6 ppt.9 ppt 1. ppt ACI (Substrate) (.4) 1.1 2.3 (.3) (1.1) (.6).1 ppt (2.2 ppt) (2.9 ppt) DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) 2. 3.2 3.3 2.2 3.5 3.5.2 ppt.3 ppt.2 ppt FX (KRW/USD) 1,115 1,13 1,13 1,135 1,17 1,17 1.8 3.5 3.5 EPS 2,386 2,797 3,193 2,672 2,963 3,278 12. 5.9 2.7 BVPS 61,93 63,218 65,764 61,379 63,67 66,31.5.7.8 ROE (%) 4. 4.5 5. 4.5 4.7 5..5.2.1 Source: BNP Paribas estimates Earnings revisions: We raise our earnings forecasts, factoring in FX that offsets substrate weakness. The PC demand outlook remains weak, despite Intel s new processor Skylake, and we are more cautious on SEMCO s FCCSP business (mobile AP substrate). Thanks to content growth on LTE expansion in China and product mix improvement, we believe the LCR division (mostly MLCC) will continue to be a cash cow for SEMCO and account for 74-8% of total OP in 215-17. We model SEMCO s major camera module to be 2MP OIS (GS7) and dual-cam (GS8) in 216-17, given insufficient time for dual-cam development (especially software). Samsung will likely copy the dual-cam feature in its flagship (GS8) in 217 after Apple`s iphone 7 dual-cam in 3Q16, in our view. KRW/USD is at 1,193 vs the 1,97 2Q avg. We now assume 1,17 KRW/USD (the 3Q average, 1,13 earlier) in 215-17. Valuation: Our TP of KRW57, is set at an unchanged 2H14 trough valuation of.9x P/B (applied to 216E). In an increasingly saturated smartphone market (Smartphone growth to deteriorate further in 216, 1 September 215), it s hard to see potential for a re-rerating, given SEMCO s mobile-oriented business structure (82%/97% of sales/op in 216E). Neither Samsung s meaningful market share gain in high-end smartphones nor SEMCO s new business (auto, IoT and wearable) are likely to be game-changers near term. (Struggling to turn the tide, 31 July 215). Cost efficiency improvements through rigorous cost cutting, Vietnam fab movement and restructuring are widely known and we believe priced in. Any overshooting on over-blown expectations from the early launch of GS7 is likely to be short-lived, in our view. Risk: Risks to our call are FX and Samsung s smartphone shipments. We think it s safe to assume 1,17 KRW/USD (average of 3Q15) for the rest of our forecast period, given rising uncertainty in global macro conditions. Each 1 KRW/USD change impacts our quarterly OP by KRW4b. We assume flat growth in Samsung s total smartphone shipments for the next two years and cautiously expect its flagship shipments to grow 6% y-y in 217 on disruptive foldable smartphones. 7 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Exhibit 9: Sales and OP trend 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E 214 215E 216E (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) Revenue 1,729 1,861 1,722 1,833 1,777 1,698 1,56 1,54 7,144 6,539 6,238 LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 464 465 474 479 534 57 558 488 1,883 2,87 2,28 ACI (Substrate) 398 397 411 423 388 374 391 461 1,63 1,614 1,487 DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) 863 99 826 916 852 831 611 555 3,595 2,85 2,544 OP 15 21 (69) 34 61 8 88 68 2 297 326 LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 1 1 (6) 15 59 6 69 51 29 239 254 ACI (Substrate) 4 3 (16) 12 (4) (3) 1 3 (5) (17) DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) 2 8 (47) 7 5 24 18 16 (3) 63 88 OPM (%).9 1.1 (4.) 1.9 3.4 4.7 5.6 4.5. 4.5 5.2 LCR (MLCC, Inductor) 2.1 2.1 (1.2) 3.2 11.1 11.7 12.4 1.4 1.5 11.4 11.5 ACI (Substrate).9.8 (3.9) 2.8 (1.) (.7).1.3.2 (.3) (1.1) DM (Camera module, Wi-Fi module, vibration motor, etc) Note: Restructuring effective since 2Q15 Sources: SEMCO; BNP Paribas estimates.2.8 (5.7).8.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 (.8) 2.2 3.5 Exhibit 1: SEMCO s sales by application (KRW b) Mobile PC Display and others 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 212 213 214 215E 216E Note: Historical numbers based on our estimates. Source: BNP Paribas estimates Exhibit 11: SEMCO s OP by application (KRW b) Mobile PC Display and others 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (1) (2) 212 213 214 215E 216E Note: Historical numbers based on our estimates. Source: BNP Paribas estimates 8 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Exhibit 12: Peer valuation Company BBG code Mkt. cap -------- P/E -------- -------- P/BV -------- -------- ROE -------- -------- OPM -------- --- Dividend yield --- Passive component & RF 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E (USD m) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Murata 6981 JP 3,263 21.4 16.8 3.2 2.7 15.8 17.3 2.2 23.2 1.1 1.3 TDK 6762 JP 7,7 19.8 13.2 1.3 1.1 6.9 9. 6.7 8.2 1.3 1.7 Taiyo Yuden 6976 JP 1,52 19.4 12.7 1.3 1.1 7.1 9.4 6. 9.1.7 1. Avg. 2.2 14.2 1.9 1.7 9.9 11.9 11. 13.5 1. 1.4 Substrate Ibiden 462 JP 1,95 12.7 11.8.6.6 5.1 5.1 7.3 8.3 1.9 2.2 Shinko Elec 6967 JP 78 16.6 12.6.7.7 4.4 5.4 3.5 7.2 2.9 3.4 Unimicron 337 TT 577 NA 34.1.4.4 -.6 1.3 -.6.6 1.5 1.6 Kinsus 3189 TT 863 1.6 1.1 1..9 1.1 1.5 12.3 12.5 5.8 5.6 Nanya PCB 846 TT 611 34.2 24.9.5.5 1.5 1.9.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 Korea Circuit 781 KS 192 14.5 5.8.7.6 5.3 1.8 9. 8.5 1.2 1.2 Daeduck GDS 413 KS 166 18.4 1.6.5.5 2.6 4.3 -.6 3.6 3.1 3.1 Avg. 17.8 15.7.6.6 4. 5.6 4.4 6. 2.6 2.8 Camera module LGI 117 KS 1,726 13.7 9.5 1.1 1. 8.5 11.2 4.3 5.1.3.4 Sunny Optical 2382 HK 2,149 18.3 14.5 3.5 2.9 2.6 22.3 8.1 8.6 1.6 2. Partron 917 KS 41 11.3 8.8 1.4 1.3 13.1 15.4 6.5 7.3 3.2 3.5 Avg. 14.5 1.9 2. 1.7 14.1 16.3 6.3 7. 1.7 2. SEMCO 915 KS 4,17 24.1 21.7 1. 1. 4.5 4.7 4.5 5.2 1.2 1.2 Priced as of 24 September Sources: BNP Paribas for SEMCO; Bloomberg consensus for others Exhibit 13: Historical 12M fwd P/B trend (x) 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 +2 SD +1 SD Avg -1 SD -2 SD. 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas estimates 9 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Financial statements Samsung Electro-Mechanics Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 213A 214A 215E 216E 217E Revenue 8,257 7,144 6,539 6,238 6,491 Cost of sales ex depreciation (6,9) (5,387) (4,774) (4,521) (4,691) Gross profit ex depreciation 2,167 1,757 1,765 1,717 1,8 Other operating income Operating costs (1,83) (1,95) (85) (811) (844) Operating EBITDA 1,83 662 915 96 956 Depreciation (6) (642) (599) (562) (581) Goodwill amortisation (19) (18) (18) (18) (18) Operating EBIT 464 2 297 326 357 Net financing costs (39) (29) Associates 2 Recurring non operating income 11 28 Non recurring items 657 (22) (22) (22) Profit before tax 436 657 275 34 336 Tax (9) (13) (62) (68) (75) Profit after tax 346 526 214 236 261 Minority interests (15) (6) (6) (6) (6) Preferred dividends Other items Reported net profit 33 52 27 23 254 Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 15 (523) Recurring net profit 346 (3) 27 23 254 Per share (KRW) Recurring EPS * 4,455 (34) 2,672 2,963 3,278 Reported EPS 4,421 6,965 2,776 3,78 3,46 DPS 1,19 751 752 752 753 Growth Revenue (%) 4.3 (13.5) (8.5) (4.6) 4.1 Operating EBITDA (%) (1.5) (38.9) 38.2 (.9) 5.5 Operating EBIT (%) (2.1) (99.6) 17,614.5 9.8 9.7 Recurring EPS (%) (21.6) n/m n/m 1.9 1.7 Reported EPS (%) (25.1) 57.5 (6.1) 1.9 1.7 Operating performance Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 19. 15.6 17.8 18.5 18.8 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 9.3 14. 14.5 14.7 Operating EBIT margin (%) 5.6. 4.5 5.2 5.5 Net margin (%) 4.2 (.) 3.2 3.7 3.9 Effective tax rate (%)..... Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 22.9 (2,197.1) 28.1 25.4 23. Interest cover (x) 12.8 1.6 n/a n/a n/a Inventory days 51.7 58.6 65.7 69.5 67.2 Debtor days 41.7 46.8 51.8 5.7 48.6 Creditor days 53.6 58.2 65.7 68.2 65.6 Operating ROIC (%) 13..5 8.2 9.2 9.8 ROIC (%) 9.2.9 6.2 7. 7.5 ROE (%) 8.6 (.1) 4.5 4.7 5. ROA (%) 5.7.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 *Pre exceptional pre-goodwill and fully diluted Sources: Samsung Electro-Mechanics; BNP Paribas estimates 1 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Financial statements Samsung Electro-Mechanics Cash Flow (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 213A 214A 215E 216E 217E Recurring net profit 346 (3) 27 23 254 Depreciation 6 642 599 562 581 Associates & minorities 15 4 6 6 6 Other non-cash items 123 88 112 11 164 Recurring cash flow 1,84 732 925 899 1,5 Change in working capital (18) (344) (142) 89 (44) Capex - maintenance (961) (86) (817) (78) (811) Capex - new investment Free cash flow to equity (57) (472) (34) 28 149 Net acquisitions & disposals 126 473 311 133 125 Dividends paid (79) (58) (58) (58) (58) Non recurring cash flows (55) (14) Net cash flow (65) (72) 219 283 216 Equity finance Debt finance 12 36 (176) (74) (9) Movement in cash 55 (35) 42 28 28 Per share (KRW) Recurring cash flow per share 14,514 9,795 12,382 12,33 13,458 FCF to equity per share (762) (6,319) (454) 2,789 2, Balance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 213A 214A 215E 216E 217E Working capital assets 1,882 2,77 1,915 1,891 1,965 Working capital liabilities (891) (1,35) (963) (928) (958) Net working capital 991 1,42 952 963 1,7 Tangible fixed assets 2,95 2,926 2,744 2,821 2,97 Operating invested capital 3,941 3,968 3,696 3,784 3,914 Goodwill Other intangible assets 244 157 353 353 354 Investments 1,263 979 743 743 743 Other assets 78 13 98 94 89 Invested capital 5,526 5,27 4,89 4,973 5,1 Cash & equivalents (769) (1,477) (1,679) (1,78) (1,864) Short term debt 897 1,116 8 8 8 Long term debt * 79 597 597 597 597 Net debt 837 236 (283) (384) (468) Deferred tax Other liabilities 198 194 18 18 18 Total equity 4,174 4,553 4,763 4,941 5,145 Minority interests 84 89 96 12 18 Invested capital 5,526 5,27 4,89 4,973 5,1 * includes convertables and preferred stock which is being treated as debt Per share (KRW) Book value per share 53,789 58,677 61,379 63,67 66,31 Tangible book value per share 5,649 56,659 56,833 59,124 61,742 Financial strength Net debt/equity (%) 19.7 5.1 (5.8) (7.6) (8.9) Net debt/total assets (%) 11.7 3.1 (3.8) (5.) (5.9) Current ratio (x) 1.5 1.7 2. 2.1 2.2 CF interest cover (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Valuation 213A 214A 215E 216E 217E Recurring P/E (x) * 14.2 n/a 23.6 21.3 19.2 Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 12.8 (1,667.1) 21.3 19.2 17.4 Reported P/E (x) 14.3 9.1 22.7 2.5 18.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 P/CF (x) 4.3 6.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 P/FCF (x) (82.8) (1.) (138.8) 22.6 31.5 Price/book (x) 1.2 1.1 1. 1. 1. Price/tangible book (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1. EV/EBITDA (x) ** 5.3 8. 5.4 5.1 4.8 EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 4. 6.4 4.8 4.9 4.6 EV/invested capital (x) 1.1 1. 1..9.9 * Pre exceptional & pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non operating income Sources: Samsung Electro-Mechanics; BNP Paribas estimates 11 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
Disclaimers and Disclosures APPENDIX DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES APPLICABLE TO NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES KOREA CO LTD ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION Jay Han, BNP Paribas Securities Korea Co Ltd, +822 2125 546, jay.han@asia.bnpparibas.com The BNP Paribas Securities Korea Co Ltd Analysts mentioned in this disclaimer are employed by a non-us affiliate of BNP Paribas Securities Corp., and are not registered/ qualified pursuant to NYSE and/or FINRA regulations The individual(s) identified above certify(ies) that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal view of the analyst(s) with regard to any and all of the subject securities, companies or issuers mentioned in this report; and (ii) no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REQUIRED IN THE UNITED STATES BY FINRA RULES AND OTHER JURISDICTIONS "BNP Paribas is the marketing name for the global banking and markets business of BNP Paribas Group. No portion of this report was prepared by BNP Paribas Securities Corp (US) personnel, and it is considered Third-Party Affiliate research under NASD Rule 2711. The following disclosures relate to relationships between companies covered in this research report and the BNP entity identified on the cover of this report, BNP Securities Corp., and other entities within the BNP Paribas Group (collectively, "BNP Paribas"). The disclosure column in the following table lists the important disclosures applicable to each company that has been rated and/or recommended in this report: Company Ticker Disclosure (as applicable) N/A N/A N/A BNP Paribas represents that: 1. Within the past year, it has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 2. It had an investment banking relationship with this company in the last 12 months. 3. It received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the last 12 months. 4. It expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company/ies in the next 3 months. 5. It beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. 6. It makes a market in securities in respect of this company. 7. The analyst(s) or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a financial interest position in securities issued by this company. The financial interest is in the common stock of the subject company, unless otherwise noted. 8. The analyst (or a member of his/her household) is an officer, director, or advisory board member of this company or has received compensation from the company. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REQUIRED IN KOREA The disclosure column in the following table lists the important disclosures applicable to each Korea listed company that has been rated and/or recommended in this report: Company Ticker Price (as of 23-Sep-215 closing price) Interest Samsung Electro-Mechanics 915 KS KRW63,1 N/A 1. The performance of obligations of the Company is directly or indirectly guaranteed by BNP Paribas Securities Korea Co. Ltd ( BNPPSK ) by means of payment guarantees, endorsements, and provision of collaterals and/or taking over the obligations. 2. BNPPSK owns 1/1 or more of the total outstanding shares issued by the Company. 3. The Company is an affiliate of BNPPSK as prescribed by Item 3, Article 2 of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act. 4. BNPPSK is the financial advisory agent of the Company for the Merger and Acquisition transaction or of the Target Company whereby the size of the transaction does not exceed 5/1 of the total asset of the Company or the total number of outstanding shares. 5. BNPPSK has taken financial advisory service regarding listing to the Company within the past 1 year. 6. With regards to the tender offer initiated by the Company based on Item 2, Article 133 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act, BNPPSK acts in the capacity of the agent for the tender offer designated either by the Company or by the target company, provided that this provision shall apply only where tender offer has not expired. 7. The listed company which issued the stocks in question in case where 4 days has not passed since the new shares were listed from the date of entering into arrangement for public offering or underwriting-related agreement for issuance of stocks 8. The Company that has signed a nominated advisor contract with BNPPSK as defined in Item 2 of Article 8 of the KONEX Market Listing Regulation. 9. The Company is recognized as having considerable interests with BNPPSK in relation to No.1 to No. 8. 1. The analyst or his/her spouse owns (including delivery claims of marketable securities based on legal regulations and trading and misc. contracts) the following securities or rights (hereinafter referred to as Securities, etc. in this Article) regardless of whose name is used in the trading. 1) Stocks, bond with stock certificate, and certificate of pre-emptive rights issued by the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited. 2) Stock options of the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited. 3) Individual stock future, stock option, and warrants that use the stocks specified in Item 1) as underlying. 12 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215
History of change in investment rating and/or target price Samsung Electro-Mechanics (915 KS) Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (KRW) Samsung Electro-Mechanics Target Price Date Rating Target price Date Rating Target price Date Rating Target price 19-Feb-13 Buy 125,. 27-Jun-14 Hold 57,. 12-Mar-15 Buy 12,. 18-Jun-13 Buy 12,. 24-Sep-14 Hold 49,. 25-Apr-15 Buy 1,. 19-Jul-13 Hold 91,. 14-Nov-14 Hold 55,. 15-Jun-15 Buy 85,. 29-Oct-13 Hold 9,. 4-Dec-14 Buy 67,. 1-Jul-15 Buy 65,. 3-Jan-14 Hold 75,. 2-Jan-15 Buy 71,. 3-Jul-15 Hold 5,. 4-Apr-14 Hold 72,. 4-Feb-15 Buy 86,. Jay Han started covering this stock from 2 Jan 215 Price and TP are in local currency Valuation and risks: The key up/downside risks to our P/B-based target price are stronger/weaker-than-expected smartphone and/or tablet sales by SEC and better/worse-thanexpected TV and PC market growth. Sources: FactSet; BNP Paribas GENERAL DISCLAIMER This report was produced by BNP Paribas Securities Korea Co Ltd, member company(ies) of the BNP Paribas Group. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without our prior written consent. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the terms and limitations set forth herein. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Customers are advised to use the information contained herein as just one of many inputs and considerations prior to engaging in any trading activity. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other investments. 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For all research available on a particular stock, please contact the relevant BNP Paribas research team or the author(s) of this report. Additional Disclosures Target price history, stock price charts, valuation and risk details, and equity rating histories applicable to each company rated in this report is available in our most recently published reports available on our website: http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com, or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your BNP Paribas representative. All share prices are as at market close on 23 September 215 unless otherwise stated. RECOMMENDATION STRUCTURE Stock Ratings Stock ratings are based on absolute upside or downside, which we define as (target price* - current price) / current price. BUY (B). The upside is 1% or more. HOLD (H). The upside or downside is less than 1%. REDUCE (R). The downside is 1% or more. Unless otherwise specified, these recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation. * In most cases, the target price will equal the analyst's assessment of the current fair value of the stock. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will reassess the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the target price may differ from fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our assessment of current fair value. Industry Recommendations Improving ( ): The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be positive over the next 12 months. Stable (previously known as Neutral) ( ): The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be maintained over the next 12 months. Deteriorating ( ): The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be negative over the next 12 months. Country (Strategy) Recommendations Overweight (O). Over the next 12 months, the analyst expects the market to score positively on two or more of the criteria used to determine market recommendations: index returns relative to the regional benchmark, index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and index returns relative to the market cost of equity. Neutral (N). Over the next 12 months, the analyst expects the market to score positively on one of the criteria used to determine market recommendations: index returns relative to the regional benchmark, index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and index returns relative to the market cost of equity. Underweight (U). Over the next 12 months, the analyst does not expect the market to score positively on any of the criteria used to determine market recommendations: index returns relative to the regional benchmark, index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and index returns relative to the market cost of equity. RATING DISTRIBUTION (as at 24 September 215) Total BNP Paribas coverage universe 736 Investment Banking Relationship (%) Buy 424 Buy.47 Hold 29 Hold. Reduce 13 Reduce. Should you require additional information concerning this report please contact the relevant BNP Paribas research team or the author(s) of this report. 215 BNP Paribas Group 15 BNP PARIBAS 25 SEPTEMBER 215