Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and MYR deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and MYR deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and MYR, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend* Support / Resistance Market commentary AUD.7594 /.793 The USD fell for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped below 93 level. AUDUSD once touched.789 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Trade Balance. EUR 1.1785 / 1.228 EURUSD rebounded to more than 1 month high as USD fell. EURUSD once touched 1.1959 levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone December Markit Manufacturing PMI final value. GBP NZD RMB CAD 1.3341 / 1.353 UK's November finance loans for housing dropped, as compared with last month. However as USD fell. GBPUSD once touched 1.3456 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's December Markit Manufacturing PMI..6913 /.7181 NZDUSD rose to a more than 2 months high as USD fell. NZDUSD once touched.798 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's December House Sales. 6.4948 / 6.5963 CNH rose to more than 3 and half month high as USD fell. USDCNH once dropped to 6.524 levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Manufacturing PMI. 1.244 / 1.286 Oil prices hovering at around USD, coupled with the USD fell, USDCAD once dropped to 1.2562 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Japan's industrial production and retail figures were higher than expected in November, USDJPY once JPY 112.1 / 113.74 dropped to 112.65 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's December Manufacturing PMI final value. SGD 1.3314 / 1.3487 USDSGD fell for the 3rd consecutive day. USDSGD once dropped to 1.3366 levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 4Q GDP initial value. MYR 4.513 / 4.833 As we dwell onto the last trading day of the year and in the absence of fresh leads in the thin market, MYR continues its gain by opening firmer at mid 4.65 levels this morning and we expect the USDMYR to end the year trading around 4.5 4.7 levels. Throughout 217, the USDMYR pair started the year trading at mid 4.49 level, and if were to end around mid 4.6 level, this will record a 1% appreciation for MYR in 217. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency
29/12/217 AUD RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the December meeting, in line with expectations. The USD fell for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped below 93 level. AUDUSD once touched.789 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Trade Balance. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 3.169.78 Daily change: -.2% -.2% High 3.1774.789 Low 3.5.75 Support* 3.94.7594 Resistance* 3.211.793 (+) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter (+) Australia Q3 CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous quarter (~) Australia November unemployment rate arrived at 5.4%, same as pervious month (-) Australia November Commodity Price Index arrived at -3.3%, lower than 1.9% in previous month 3.52 AUD/MYR 6-month Chart AUD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 3.41 3.3 3.19 3.8 2.97 AUD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 EUR ECB kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected, and said the interest rate will maintain its current level for a considerable period of time. EURUSD rebounded to more than 1 month high as USD fell. EURUSD once touched 1.1959 levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone December Markit Manufacturing PMI final value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 4.854 1.194 Daily change:.7%.7% (+) Germany Q3 GDP rose.8% QoQ, higher than an increase of.6% in previous quarter High 4.8616 1.1959 (+) Eurozone November CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low 4.7766 1.1716 (+) Germany December manufacturing PMI arrived at 63.3, higher than 62.5 in previous month Support* 4.8 1.1785 (-) Germany December Business Climate arrived at 117.2, lower than 117.6 in previous month Resistance* 4.885 1.228 5.25 5.12 4.99 4.86 4.73 EUR/MYR 6-month Chart EUR/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 4. Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 EUR/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
29/12/217 GBP BoE kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected. UK's November finance loans for housing dropped, as compared with last month. However as USD fell. GBPUSD once touched 1.3456 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 5.464 1.344 Daily change: -.4% -.4% High 5.4952 1.3462 Low 5.4232 1.33 Support* 5.427 1.3341 Resistance* 5.499 1.353 (-) UK Q3 GDP final value rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter's preliminary value (+) UK November CPI rose.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.1% in previous month (~) UK ILO October's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.3%, same as pervious month (~) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious month GBP/MYR 6-month Chart GBP/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 5.75 5.62 5.49 5.36 5.23 GBP/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 NZD RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged in November, but raised inflation forecasts. NZDUSD rose to a more than 2 months high as USD fell. NZDUSD once touched.798 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's December House Sales. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 2.881.79 (-) New Zealand Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.8% in previous quarter Daily change:.%.% (+) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.7% in previous quarter High 2.8894.71 (+) New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 4.6%, lower than 4.8% in previous quarter Low 2.7922.6832 (-) New Zealand November Commodity Price Index arrived at -.9%, dropped more than -.3% in previous Support* 2.819.6913 month Resistance* 2.91.7181 3.21 3.8 2.95 2.82 2.69 NZD/MYR 6-month Chart NZD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3
29/12/217 RMB PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. CNH rose to more than 3 and half month high as USD fell. USDCNH once dropped to 6.524 levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec.622 6.532 Daily change: -.5% -.5% High.6242 6.623 Low.6146 6.5215 Support*.617 6.4948 Resistance*.62 6.5963.67.65.63.61 (-) China Q3 GDP rose 6.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.9% in previous quarter (-) China November CPI rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous month (-) China November Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 5.8, lower than 51 in previous month (-) China November industrial production rose 6.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.2% in previous month RMB/MYR 6-month Chart CNH/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.59 9 RMB/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 3 CAD Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 1% in the December meeting as expected, but emphasized it would continue to cautiously adjust its monetary policy. Oil prices hovering at around USD, coupled with the USD fell, USDCAD once dropped to 1.2562 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 3.234 1.257 (+) Canada October GDP rose 3.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.3% in previous month Daily change:.29%.29% (+) Canada November CPI rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month High 3.2362 1.2918 (+) Canada November unemployment rate arrived at 5.9%, lower than 6.3% in previous month Low 3.1564 1.2552 (+) Canada November Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.4, higher than 54.3 in previous month Support* 3.181 1.244 Resistance* 3.261 1.286 CAD/MYR 6-month Chart CAD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 3.49 3.38 3.27 3.16 3.5 CAD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3
29/12/217 JPY Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in December unchanged, in line with market expectations. Japan's industrial production and retail figures were higher than expected in November, USDJPY once dropped to 112.65 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's December Manufacturing PMI final value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 27.74 112.87 Daily change:.%.% High 27.8775 113.74 Low 27.422 112.1 Support* 27.473 112.1 Resistance* 27.948 113.74 (+) Japan Q3 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.6% in previous quarter (+) Japan November CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous month (+) Japan December manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.2, higher than 53.6 in previous month (~) Japan November Industrial Production rose.6% MoM, same as pervious month 28. JPY/MYR 6-month Chart JPY/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 27.8 27. 26.2 25.4 24. JPY/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. USDSGD fell for the 3rd consecutive day. USDSGD once dropped to 1.3366 levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 4Q GDP initial value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec 3.39 1.338 (+) Singapore Q3 GDP final value rose 5.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter's Daily change: -.22% -.22% advance result High 3.483 1.3538 (+) Singapore November CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.4% in previous month Low 3.14 1.3365 (~) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 2.2%, same as pervious quarter Support* 3.17 1.3314 (-) Singapore November Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 9.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.5% in Resistance* 3.54 1.3487 previous month 3.2 3.13 3.6 2.99 SGD/MYR 6-month Chart SGD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 2.92 SGD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3
29/12/217 MYR As we dwell onto the last trading day of the year and in the absence of fresh leads in the thin market, MYR continues its gain by opening firmer at mid 4.65 levels this morning and we expect the USDMYR to end the year trading around 4.5 4.7 levels. Throughout 217, the USDMYR pair started the year trading at mid 4.49 level, and if were to end around mid 4.6 level, this will record a 1% appreciation for MYR in 217. Tehnical Analysis 29-Dec 4.65 Daily change: -.39% High 4.88 Low 4.5 Support* 4.513 (+) US Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec) 67.6, expected 62., prior 63.9 (+) US Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov P).7%, expected.3%, prior -.5% (revised -.4%) (~) US Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 23) 245k, expected 24k, prior 245k (-) US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Dec) 122.1, expected 128., prior 129.5 (revised 128.6) (+) MY Foreign Reserves (Dec 15) $12.2b, prior $11.9b Resistance* 4.833 USD/MYR 6-month Chart USD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4. 9 USD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI \ 3
29/12/217 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of December 29, 217 Analysts Consensus Previous Actual United States 26-Dec-17 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jan 21% 2% 2% 27-Dec-17 Consumer Confidence* Dec 128 129.5 122.1 27-Dec-17 Pending Home Sales MoM Nov -.48% 3.5%.2% 28-Dec-17 Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec 62 63.9 67.6 28-Dec-17 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 24K 245K 245K 28-Dec-17 Continuing Claims Weekly 19K 1932K 1943K 28-Dec-17 Wholesale Inventories Nov.3% -.5%.7% Regional 28-Dec-17 Hong Kong Export YoY % Nov 6.7% 7.8% 28-Dec-17 Hong Kong Import YoY % Nov 7.9% 8.% 29-Dec-17 Australia Private Sector Credit MoM% Nov.4%.4% - 29-Dec-17 Australia Private Sector Credit YoY% Nov 5.2% 5.3% - 29-Dec-17 Hong Kong Gov't Monthly Budget Nov 22.22B - G7 Countries 27-Dec-17 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) Nov 1% -1% -1% 27-Dec-17 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) Nov -2.5% -4.8% -.41% 28-Dec-17 Japan Industrial Production (MoM)* Nov.5%.5%.% 28-Dec-17 Japan Retail Trade YoY Nov 1% -.2% 2.2% 28-Dec-17 Japan Retail Trade MoM SA Nov.7% -.1% 1.9% 29-Dec-17 Germany Consumr Price Index (MoM) Dec.5%.3% - 29-Dec-17 Germany Consumr Price Index (YoY) Dec 1.5% 1.8% - 29-Dec-17 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Dec 1.4% 1.8% - 29-Dec-17 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) Dec.%.3% - 29-Dec-17 Italy PPI (YoY) Nov.4% -
29/12/217 Currency Market Movements Table Night Desk 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months Current High Low High Low High Low High Low AUD/MYR 3.1611 28.8661 3.13 28.8682 3.1688 28.8682 3.1688 28.8682 3.319 EUR/MYR 4.8429 4.8542 4.8425 4.8636 4.8493 4.8847 4.8669 5.135 4.9991 GBP/MYR 5.4552 49.7837 5.4544 49.7873 5.4743 49.7873 5.5247 49.7873 5.6469 MYR/JPY 27.768 27.7997 27.7465 27.881 27.794 27.881 27.794 27.881 27.794 NZD/MYR 2.8784 26.2663 2.8776 26.2699 2.8827 26.2699 2.8827 26.2699 3.448 SGD/MYR 3.332 3.38 3.332 3.476 3.395 3.534 3.395 3.1248 3.1168 USD/MYR 4.5 37.33 4.5 4.913 4.85 4.193 4.845 4.244 4.2389 AUD/USD.7794.784.7788.781.7779.781.7779.7897.7867 EUR/USD 1.1941 1.1959 1.1936 1.1959 1.1929 1.1959 1.1929 1.1961 1.1929 GBP/USD 1.345 1.3456 1.342 1.3457 1.3429 1.355 1.3432 1.355 1.3432 NZD/USD.798.71.774.711.775.711.775.7244.7185 USD/JPY 112.74 112.988 112.715 113.64 113.25 113.75 113.32 114.73 113.95 AUD/GBP.5794.585.5781.588.579.588.579.14.5934 AUD/NZD 1.979 1.14 1.979 1.117 1.983 1.1114 1.15 1.1291 1.12 AUD/SGD 1.421 1.434 1.417 1.446 1.48 1.446 1.48 1.71 1.649 EUR/AUD 1.5319 1.5326 1.5295 1.5528 1.542 1.5771 1.564 1.5771 1.564 EUR/NZD 1.6821 1.685 1.6821 1.765 1.6919 1.7481 1.7237 1.7481 1.7294 EUR/GBP.8878.8889.8873.8899.8874.8982.8874.933.8949 GBP/SGD 1.7983 1.7987 1.7935 1.8125 1.7988 1.8286 1.819 1.8286 1.8131 GBP/NZD 1.8946 1.8964 1.8925 1.9263 1.95 1.9839 1.9529 1.9839 1.9529 AUD/HKD 6.924.1642.1639 6.136 6.799 6.136 6.799 6.1648 6.1163 GBP/HKD 1.5138 1.5162 1.4884 1.5177 1.4957 1.583 1.4957 1.583 1.4957 USD/CAD 1.2569 1.2571 1.2556 1.292 1.2853 1.292 1.2853 1.292 1.2853 CAD/MYR 3.2268 29.485 3.2267 29.4833 3.2285 29.4833 3.2285 29.4833 3.3958 GBP/AUD 1.7255 1.7262 1.7193 1.7557 1.7419 1.7997 1.7719 1.7997 1.7719 USD/SGD 1.337 1.3382 1.3369 1.3497 1.3476 1.3539 1.358 1.3714 1.3636 EUR/SGD 1.5965 1.5978 1.5964 1.5 1.59 1.76 1.5962 1.618 1.36 XAU/MYR 5255.646 5261.8882 5234.4648 5266.1437 5251.6183 5323.425 5251.6183 558.4845 545.3449 XAU/USD 1295.42 1295.851 1293.62 1295.98 1293.87 1296.7 1293.87 136.11 1293.87 XAU/GBP 963.2 963.8198 961.4438 964.21 962.62 97.14 962.62 987.25 975.87 XAU/AUD 1661.88 1662.6417 1658.6565 1662.93 1659.3 179.45 1693.84 1714.44 1697.29 XAU/EUR 184.81 184.9331 181.33 119.9 182.7 119.9 182.7 111.71 112.82 AUD/CAD.9795.982.977.9882.9852.9882.9852.9917.9865 AUD/JPY 87.868 88.94 87.75 88.15 87.852 88.15 87.852 89.95 88.769 CAD/JPY 89.68 89.921 89.393 89.93 89.48 89.93 89.48 9.778 9.15 NZD/JPY 8.1 8.14 79.823 8.173 79.839 8.173 79.839 81.4 8.982 SGD/JPY 84.37 84.458 84.1954 84.629 84.295 84.629 84.295 84.629 84.295 AUD/CNY 5.886 5.151 5.82 5.1214 5.843 5.1214 5.843 5.2435 5.214 GBP/CNY 8.7814 8.7991 8.775 8.8911 8.8118 8.9619 8.8949 8.971 8.8949 NZD/CNY 4.6386 4.641 4.6241 4.6497 4.6276 4.6497 4.6276 4.8255 4.7799 MYR/CNY 1.58 1.79 1.37 1.6248 1.6176 1.6351 1.6249 1.6351 1.6249 Updated as of 29 December 217 9:25:18 AM * Night Desk Session from 5pm 5am Hong Kong Time. Source: Bloomberg Key Currency Performance against MYR Current level vs MYR 1-week Performance 3-month Performance 6-month Performance NZD 2.88.64% -5.37% -8.5% CAD 3.23 1.1% -4.4% -2.8% GBP 5.4.32% -2.74% -1.69% SGD 3.4.2% -2.22% -2.19% AUD 3.17.75% -4.31% -3.71% CNY.62.4% -2.2% -1.5% THB 12.43 -.14% -1.83% -1.63% CHF 4.15.79% -4.33% -6.84% EUR 4.85.41% -2.23% -.57% JPY 3.5.4% -4.5% -4.97% USD 4.65 -.29% -3.95% -5.39% *source : REUTERS closing bid price, as at 28-Dec-217
29/12/217 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund 1.5 1.25 1-Feb-18 Canada (BOC) 1..75 17-Jan-18 Europe (ECB).. 25-Jan-18 Japan (BOJ).1.1 23-Jan-18 UK (BOE).5.5 8-Feb-18 Malaysia 3. 3. 25-Jan-18 Australia (RBA) 1.5 1.5 6-Feb-18 Taiwan 1.38 1.38 - New Zealand (RBNZ) 1.75 1.75 8-Feb-18 Indonesia 6.5 6.5 - Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 29/12/217 before 1.3 am The information in this document has been obtained from reports (relevant reports) issued or compiled by various entities within the HSBC Group (the HSBC Group ) Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. Disclaimer This document is issued by HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad (127776-V) (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgment, which is subject to change without notice. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for, or advice that you should enter into, the purchase or sale of any security, commodity or other investment product or investment agreement, or any other contract, agreement or structure whatsoever and is intended for institutional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document. This document, which is not for public circulation, must not be copied, transferred or the content disclosed, to any third party and is not intended for use by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's professional advisers for the purposes of advising the intended recipient hereon. Copyright. HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad (127776-V) 215. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad.