FORUM ÉCONOMIQUE SUR LE CONSEIL DE COOPÉRATION DU GOLFE ET LE MAGHREB LES PERSPECTIVES D INVESTISSEMENT DANS LA RÉGION DU GOLFE ET LES ASPECTS LÉGAUX En collaboration avec:
Investment Outlook in the GCC Region October 2010
List of Topics I. The Gulf Cooperation Council Facts & Figures II. III. IV. Overview of the Mergermarket Study and Survey Results Opportunities for Corporations, Private Equity, JVs, and Equities Saudi Arabia a Case Study
I. Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council Combined Area: 2,672,700 km2 (More than one third the size of Canada) Combined Population: 40,338,196 Combined GDP: $1,103,235 million (2009) Growth Rates for 2008: between 4.3% and 12.8%
II. Mergermarket Forecast Background Respondent Breakdown by Geography
Mergermarket Forecast Which of the following countries will see the most intraregional investment activity over the next 12 months? (Rank where 1 = least activity and 6 = most activity)
Mergermarket Forecast: Investment Which of the following countries will see the most foreign investment activity over the next 12 months? (Rank where 1 = least activity and 6 = most activity)
Mergermarket Forecast: Investment
Mergermarket Forecast: Investment In the GCC region overall, which of the following sectors do you think will see the most rapid development in the next 12 to 24 months?
Mergermarket Forecast: Bank Lending In Saudi Arabia specifically, which sector will banks be most willing to lend to over the next 12 to 24 months?
Mergermarket Forecast: Single Currency Should plans for a common currency for Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia follow through, do you think such a currency would positively influence investment activity in the GCC region?
Saudi Arabia Spending Budget 2010 Others 38% Total Budget $144B Credit & liquidity 9% $53.7B Includes security & defense, National ICT plan, National Science & Technology Plan, Judicial reform $12.9B 12.9B $12.3B $36.7B $16.3B Education & training 25% Municipal Transport & 4% Water, telecom agriculture & 4% infrastructure 9% Healthcare & social services 11% KSA increased spending figures 2004-2010 Transport & Telecom: 22% Health/Social Services: 17% Municipal Services: 17% Water & Infrastructure: 16% Education & training: 16% *Ministry of Finance KSA
Economic Growth / Macro Economic Outlook Which of the following factors will be most important to fueling economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2010?
Oil & Gas Oil prices expected to hold value at $75-$80. Global oil demand is expected to rise during 2010 as the global economic recovery continues. The Kingdom already has excess capacity to enable it to respond to any higher demand.
Mining & Petrochemical Mining: Development of a strong mining sector. KSA possesses large deposits of various minerals, including bauxite, copper, gold, iron, lead, silver, tin and various non-metallic minerals. Petrochemical: KSA increased market share and demand to increase. Expansion of oil production (from about 11 Mb/d to 12.5M b/d by 2010).
Infrastructure Mergermarket estimates that Infrastructure, along with Natural Resources & Transport are best positioned to stimulate growth Saudi Arabia s rail plans are fuelling activity in the infrastructure sector - (US$30bn worth of contracts under way) Utilities sector also estimated to increase number of projects
IIII. Opportunities for Corporations, Private Equity, JVs and Equities
Mergermarket Forecast: Corporate Structures Which of the following deal structures do you expect to be the most common in the GCC region over the next 12 months?
Mergermarket Forecast: Private Equity What will be the primary focus of private equity firms operating in the GCC region over the next 12 months?
Mergermarket Forecast: Joint Ventures How do you expect the volume of domestic/intra-regional joint ventures to compare to the volume of international joint ventures in the GCC region over the next 12 months?
Equities: Saudi Arabia Over 50 IPOs are expected in the Kingdom in 2010. However, little financing forthcoming from foreign banks. Strong upward trend for Saudi equities in the next two quarters. Tadawul All Shares Index has risen by 12% this year. Among equity sectors, petrochemicals and banks still most preferred by investors, although interest has been shifting to telecommunications & cement since first quarter.
Equities: Other GCC States Qatar: On a P/E 2010 basis, Qatar is attractively valued compared to regional peers and the EMEA. This is due to strong Gas reserves and forecasts of oil above USD 80 following the economic recovery. Kuwait: Kuwait's domestic non-oil economy is expected to grow solidly in 2010/11. Services Sector growing, while property, banking and investment activities as well as support services related to the energy and petrochemical sectors continue to provide significant revenue streams.
Equities: Other GCC States UAE: Local risk appetite subdued; Tightening liquidity and worries on the debt restructuring of Dubai Holdings still overhang on the local equity markets. Though, strong signs this is now stabilising. Talk of a merger of Abu Dhabi and Dubai exchanges is welcomed & could provide extra liquidity. Bahrain: Bahrain's local stock market is improving; Bahraini banks direct exposures generally low. Bahrain is pushing for making the country truly business friendly. Oman: Oman's economic policy is to focus on diversifying the economy away from its reliance on the hydrocarbons sector and on meeting the employment needs of a young and expanding population; Inflation continues to creep up.
IV. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Case Study Global economic downturn has had little adverse affect KSA is the largest market in the ME for construction work, ahead of Turkey, Iran and the other Gulf countries. KSA has gone through remarkable changes in the last few years, creating a more supportive environment for foreign company participations Open for Business: - World Bank now ranks KSA in top 15 countries for foreign investment and business One of the best regions in the world today to pursue business and investments.
Relative Perspective World Bank/IFC Ease of Business Studies: Canada (8) and Saudi Arabia (13) have very respectable ranks India (133) and other BRIC countries are well down the list Economy Global Doing Business Rank Singapore 1 New Zealand 2 Hong Kong, China 3 United States 4 United Kingdom 5 Denmark 6 Ireland 7 Canada 8 Australia 9 Norway 10 Georgia 11 Thailand 12 Saudi Arabia 13 Iceland 14 United Arab Emirates 33 South Africa 34 Puerto Rico 35 St. Lucia 36 Colombia 37 Azerbaijan 38 Qatar 39 Cyprus 40 Spain 62 Kazakhstan 63 Trinidad and Tobago 81 Albania 82 Serbia 88 China 89 Bangladesh 119 Russian Federation 120 Costa Rica 121 Brazil 129 Malawi 132 India 133 Madagascar 134 Central African Republic 183
Legal Aspects of Doing Business in the Gulf Perform due diligence and seek legal advice Sponsors are an important part of foreign firms doing business Be mindful of doing other business unrelated to the sponsor Agents can be helpful But, make part of due diligence Consider with your legal counsel the best form of entity to set-up
Conclusion Recent legal reform in the Gulf has meant business transactions have become more streamlined, timely and cost efficient. Reforms have resulted in an attractive hub for both international and foreign investment. The Economies of countries of the GCC are well positioned for growth in the next three years, fueled by investments in the non-oil sector with support from the oil sector. More economic activity is expected as the GCC economies become more integrated.