DAILY FX OUTLOOK FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Jay & Silent BOE Friday, November 3, 217 Except against the GBP, the USD lost steam against its G1 counterparts with the US curve softer (bull flattened from the back-end with the 1y UST yield below 2.35%). Investors greeted Trump s nomination of Powell and the House tax plan (to be addressed by the House Ways and Means Committee next Monday with the road to passage by Thanksgiving or Christmas expected to be contentious) announcement with little fanfare. Meanwhile, the BOE raised (7-2 vote with Cunliffe and Ramsden dissenting) its benchmark rate by 25bps to.5% on Thursday as widely expected but accompanying language (including from Carney) surprised even investors who had been looking for a one-and-done hike. Specifically, the previous phrasing warning of more hikes than expected by the markets was omitted. Meanwhile, the Bank highlighted considerable risks to its growth and inflation outlook and that further rate hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. As a result, the GBP was trounced with the pair slumping through 1.31 to a 1.343 low with gilts striding higher. Elsewhere, with relative central bank dynamics losing impetus, markets looked towards risk appetite dynamics, with the cyclicals edging higher across G1 space while the JPY underperformed across the board. Structurally, we have now closed the loop with the host of core central banks having had their say in terms of telegraphing a healthy dose of caution and gradualism (despite continued stabilization in economic activity and inflation). Although we continue to think that the greenback may remain structurally underpinned on the back of rate dynamics (despite the recent curve flattening globally), the fading USD narrative (Powell, tax bill, 1y UST yield < 2.35%) in the near term may leave investors reduced to trading off risk appetite dynamics in the interim. Treasury Research & Strategy For today, look to USD NFP (123 GMT) today with global services/composite PMIs also on tap. In terms of central bank speak, look to the Fed s Kashkari (1615 GMT) and the ECB s Coeure (215 GMT). Emmanuel Ng +65 653 473 ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com Amidst the latest corrective move in the USD, our 28 Sep 17 idea to be tactically short AUD-USD (spot ref:.7816) hit its profit stop of.772 on Thursday, yielding an implied +1.2% gain.
3/3/214 3/7/214 3/11/214 3/3/215 3/7/215 3/11/215 3/3/216 3/7/216 3/11/216 3/3/217 3/7/217 3/11/217 3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook Asian FX EM FX firmed slightly against the USD in general on Thursday and with the FXSI (FX Sentiment Index) continuing to push deeper into Risk-On territory, expect the ACI (Asian Currency Index) to continue to react lower to the hesitant broad dollar. Net portfolio inflow developments meanwhile continue to point to relative outperformance for the KRW, TWD, and INR. Meanwhile, net outflow momentum for the IDR, THB, MYR have also been compressing. SGD NEER: The SGD NEER is firmer again at +1.8% above its perceived parity (1.3738) with NEER-implied USD-SGD thresholds largely unchanged on the day. At current levels, the +1.2% threshold is estimated at 1.3575 where an interim floor for the USD-SGD may be expected. Overall, expect a slightly top heavy tone within the 55-day MA (1.3559) and 1-day MA (1.3629). 12 118 116 114 112 11 18 16 14 12 1 Asian Currency Index SGD NEER % deviation USD-SGD Current 125.61 1.9 1.3592 +2.% 126.74 1.3469 Parity 124.26 1.3738-2.% 121.77 1.418 CFETS RMB Index: The USD-CNY mid-point this morning slipped (as largely as expected) to 6.672 from 6.6196 on Thursday, lifting the CFETS RMB Index higher to 95.33 from 95.23 yesterday. We stay on the lookout for any discretionary push higher next week amidst Trump s visit to China/Asia next week. 15 CFETS NEER vs. USD-CNY mid-point 7. 6.9 1 95 9 85 8 75 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6. CFETS RMB Index USD-CNY Fix, Bloomberg Treasury & Strategy Research 2
4-Nov-15 4-Nov-15 4-Nov-15 4-Nov-15 3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook G7 1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 EUR-USD EUR-USD Despite still hovering slightly rich relative to implied confidence intervals, the pair may continue to remain relatively underpinned into the end of the week in line with its short term implied valuations. The 1-day MA (1.171) is expected to cap with 1.16 (which has held all week) also likely to cushion as investors attempt to latch onto new cues. 123 118 113 18 13 USD-JPY USD-JPY Ahead of the NFP tonight, note that short term implied valuations for the USD-JPY have stepped lower discernibly. As such, the pair may be expected to fade upticks (as opposed to bouncing on dips) within 113.5-114.5 in the interim. 98.8.78.76.74.72.7.68 AUD-USD AUD-USD China Caixin PMIs this morning came in mixed while the AUD was undermined slightly by disappointing September retail sales readings. Short term implied valuations meanwhile have been fairly static (if a little top heavy). In the interim, the 2-day MA (.7698) may serve as a near term junction. 1.57 1.52 1.47 1.42 1.37 1.32 1.27 1.22 GBP-USD GBP-USD After being trounced overnight, the GBP-USD may remain vulnerable post-boe MPC. Short term implied valuations are also seen soggy as investors continue to digest the dovish hike. Expect the 1-day MA (1.384) to now function as a near term resistance, with risks obviously tilted towards a violation of 1.35 towards 1.325. 1.17 Treasury & Strategy Research 3
4-Nov-15 3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook 1.44 1.39 1.34 1.29 1.24 USD-CAD USD-CAD USD vulnerability coupled with a rebound in crude softened the USD-CAD on Thursday. Short term implied valuations remain top heavy although some bottom picking may be expected within 1.277-1.285 hade of the Canadian labor market numbers today. 1.19 USD-Asia VS. Net Capital Flows South Korea Taiwan 1 18 8 29.5 8 6 4 2-2 11 112 114 116 118 12 122 6 4 2-2 -4 3. 3.5 31. 31.5 32. 32.5 33. 33.5-4 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 124-6 34. NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD India Indonesia 15 63.5 5 129 4 1 64.5 3 131 5 65.5 2 1 133 66.5-1 135-5 67.5-2 -3 137 68.5-4 139-1 -5 NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D USD-INR Bond & Equity: 2D RS USD-IDR Thailand Philippines 3 33. 7 46. 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 33.5 34. 34.5 35. 35.5 36. 5 3 1-1 -3-5 47. 48. 49. 5. 51. -2 36.5-7 52. Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB NFB: RS2 USD-PHP Treasury & Strategy Research 4
29-Sep-5 29-Mar-6 29-Sep-6 29-Mar-7 29-Sep-7 29-Mar-8 29-Sep-8 29-Mar-9 29-Sep-9 29-Mar-1 29-Sep-1 29-Mar-11 29-Sep-11 29-Mar-12 29-Sep-12 29-Mar-13 29-Sep-13 29-Mar-14 29-Sep-14 29-Mar-15 29-Sep-15 29-Mar-16 29-Sep-16 29-Mar-17 29-Sep-17 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook 15 1 5-5 -1 Malaysia 3.8 3.9 4. 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5-15 4.6 Equity 2D RS USD-MYR 1.5 1. z-score 4wk MA ACI VS. Net Capital Flows Stronger Asia FX 1m% -4-3.5-2. -1 -.5-1. 1-1.5-2. Weaker Asia FX 2 3-2.5 4 Total Net Flows (2D RS) ACI (RHS) FX Sentiment Index 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 RISK OFF 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5 RISK ON -2. Treasury & Strategy Research 5
KRW CLP PLN INR TWD THB CNY IDR MYR SGD HUF PHP RUB EUR ARS JPY GBP AUD NOK ZAR CAD CHF COP SEK NZD BRL MXN TRY 3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook 1M Correlation Matrix Security DXY USGG1 CNY SPX MSELCA CRY JPY CL1 VIX ITRXEX CNH EUR DXY 1.58.65.73.35.691.819.762.233 -.799.532 -.962 CHF.935.662.64.797.557.821.911.855.434 -.879.43 -.85 CAD.915.694.69.729.479.86.868.821.476 -.84.443 -.817 JPY.819.798.615.694.396.648 1.69.515 -.691.54 -.69 MYR.733.652.864.385.31.319.654.357.395 -.435.776 -.691 IDR.682.684.682.78.518.743.671.646.541 -.723.321 -.577 SGD.66.751.81.223 -.255.81.652.12.3 -.216.887 -.651 CNY.65.656 1.453.92.357.615.412.613 -.329.968 -.539 USGG1.58 1.656.367.47.338.798.336.655 -.34.68 -.453 CNH.532.68.968.166 -.243.69.54.87.277 -.146 1 -.531 PHP.334.596.597.626.644.738.467.559.684 -.552.41 -.163 CCN12M.224.238.758.86 -.85 -.22.26.16.97 -.19.745 -.22 THB.19.25.38 -.449 -.795 -.532 -.148 -.53 -.267.346.552 -.131 TWD -.53.337.568 -.331 -.89 -.567 -.8 -.577 -.65.46.631.55 GBP -.46 -.236 -.339 -.144.211.99 -.329 -.89.72 -.7 -.346.369 INR -.498 -.64 -.87 -.638 -.755 -.813 -.491 -.795 -.19.771.18.433 KRW -.76 -.229 -.24 -.664 -.783 -.887 -.677 -.869 -.123.893 -.253.729 NZD -.82 -.88 -.649 -.727 -.42 -.727 -.885 -.714 -.583.722 -.438.652 AUD -.852 -.749 -.57 -.534 -.259 -.598 -.766 -.654 -.387.74 -.384.788 EUR -.962 -.453 -.539 -.581 -.251 -.578 -.69 -.667 -.96.735 -.531 1 Source: Bloomberg Immediate technical support and resistance levels S2 S1 Current R1 R2 EUR-USD 1.1581 1.16 1.1657 1.17 1.1824 GBP-USD 1.327 1.361 1.369 1.31 1.3218 AUD-USD.7613.7625.7683.7694.77 NZD-USD.6818.69.6916.7.7131 USD-CAD 1.2476 1.28 1.2814 1.29 1.2917 USD-JPY 111.84 114. 114.4 114.45 114.62 USD-SGD 1.3546 1.36 1.3614 1.3674 1.37 EUR-SGD 1.58 1.585 1.5869 1.59 1.619 JPY-SGD 1.194 1.191 1.1938 1.2 1.211 GBP-SGD 1.7742 1.7763 1.7791 1.78 1.791 AUD-SGD 1.4 1.417 1.459 1.5 1.622 Gold 1264.16 1266.8 1277.6 1299.53 13. Silver 16.68 17.1 17.13 17.2 17.22 Crude 54.5 54.8 54.8 55.18 55.22 FX performance: 1-month change agst USD 4. 3. % 2. 1.. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. Source: Bloomberg Treasury & Strategy Research 6
3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook G1 FX Heat Map AUD NZD EUR GBP JPY CAD USD SGD MYR AUD 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 NZD 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 EUR 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 GBP 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 JPY 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 9 CAD 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 USD 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 SGD 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 MYR 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 2 Asia FX Heat Map USD JPY CNY SGD MYR KRW TWD THB PHP INR IDR USD 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 JPY 2 2 1 9 2 2 1 1 1 1 CNY 2 2 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SGD 2 1 9 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 MYR 2 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 KRW 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 TWD 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 THB 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 1 2 PHP 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 1 2 INR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 IDR 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Treasury & Strategy Research 7
3 November 217 Daily FX Outlook FX Trade Ideas Inception B/S Currency Spot Target Stop/Trailing Stop Rationale TACTICAL 1 21-Sep-17 B USD-JPY 112.58 115.5 111.3 Policy dichotomy post FOMC-BOJ + positive risk appetite levels 2 28-Sep-17 B USD-CAD 1.25 1.395 1.264 Reality check from the BOC's Poloz even as the USD garners renewed interest 3 24-Oct-17 S EUR-USD 1.1763 1.1535 1.1875 Potential disappoint from the ECB, possible USD resilience from fiscal and Fed-chair news flow 4 24-Oct-17 B USD-SGD 1.3616 1.3765 1.354 Post MAS MPS behavior of SGD NEER, broad USD resilience, uneven net portfolio inflows in STRUCTURAL 5 9-May-17 B GBP-USD 1.2927 1.37 1.2535 USD skepticism, UK snap elections, positioning overhang, hawkish RECENTLY CLOSED TRADE IDEAS BOE? Inception Close B/S Currency Spot Close Rationale P/L (%)* 1 28-Sep-17 11-Oct-17 S EUR-USD 1.1734 1.186 Political overhang from Germany contrasting with FOMC, Yellen -.99 2 9-Oct-17 12-Oct-17 S GBP-USD 1.3116 1.3256 Brexit concerns plus additional leadership threats to PM May's position 3 4-Oct-17 12-Oct-17 B USD-SGD 1.362 1.3525 Potential USD resilience- Fed, geopolitical risks, static MAS, decaying capital inflows in Asia 4 22-Aug-17 2-Oct-17 Bearish 2M 1X1.5 USD-JPY Put Spread Underwhelming data feed, Spot ref: 19.31; Strikes: 19., 16.4; gradualist Fed, potential negative Exp: 2/1/17; Cost:.57% US political baggage 5 29-Aug-17 27-Oct-17 Bearish 2M 1X1.5 USD-SGD Put Spread Vunerable USD, prevailing Spot ref: 1.3519; Strikes: 1.3511, 1.3361; positivity towards carry, EM/Asia Exp: 27/1/17; Cost:.31% -1.5 -.56 -.56** -.31** 6 28-Sep-17 2-Nov-17 S AUD-USD.7816.772 Cyclicals may undergo a reassessment in face of corrective moves in the USD and US yields +1.2 Jan-Nov*** 217 Return -1.55 * realized **of notional ***month-to-date 216 Return +6.91 Treasury & Strategy Research 8
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