// The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University January, 3 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 98-Q3 99-Q -Q 9-Q 3 6 7 8 9 3 6 7 8 9 *in 99 or 9 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After Quarters Avg % Chg 6. GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports..8. 3...9 3...9..3..... Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.3.7.7.7.. 98-Q3 99-Q -Q 9-Q Recession.% Increasing Role of Exports % of GDP Quarters Post-Recession 3.%.%.%.% Percent of GDP.% 8.% 6.%.% 9.3% 8.9% 6.%.8% 7.% 98-Q3 99-Q -Q 9-Q.%.% 3 6 7 8 9 36789 Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// reasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP Quarters Post-Recession 7.% Percent of GDP 6.%.%.% 3.%.%.%.%.%.8%.8% 3.%.3% 3.% 3.%.7% 3 6 7 8 9 36789 Quarters After Start of Recession 98-Q3 99-Q -Q 9-Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change - - - - - 6 7 8 9 3 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// 6 - - -6-8 - - Jan Jan U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 6 7 8 9 3 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 6 3 3 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year Nov = +.8M - - -6-8 (s) 7 US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month 3 Nov = +3 - -3 - -7-9 7 8 9 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total =,76 9 97 696 9 377 7 7 7 68 6 - -6 - - 6 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = 3 38 86 3 8 3 8 - - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
// (s) 7 6 6 3 3 Initial Claims for Unemployment -Week Moving Average 7 98 Source: Department of Labor (s) Initial Claims for Unemployment -Present -Week Moving Average 3 3 7 98 Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9 8 7 6 Nov =.8 IHS FCST 6..6 6. 7.3 8. 9.3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics ember, $/barrel Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > 8 6 6 7 8 9 3 6 7 8 9 Source: IHS Economics ember, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
// Consumer Confidence 8 6 Expectations Current Situation Nov-9 Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov-3 Nov- Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3 - % Consumer Prices - 9 Forecast > > > > > 9 8 7 6 3 9 8 7 6 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics ember, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
// Interest Rates - 9 8 Forecast > > > > 7 6 3-Yr -Yr Treas Fed 3-3 7 9 3 7 9 Source: IHS Economics ember, U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) 6,,,,, 3, 3,,, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) 6 3 3 Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// % 6 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > 3 3.8 3. 3. 3..6..9.3..3.8 3..9.8.. - - -.3 -.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics ember, U.S. Economic Performance % - - - - - -3 Forecast > > > > GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics ember, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// % 6 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast - - -6-8 - 7 8 9 3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics ember, Annual Change in US Employed Workers* (s) 6 Nov = +.9 M - - -6-8 *employed workers include full-time, part-time, self-employed and contract workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Oct 8 Oct... RECESSION C.I. 9. 9. L.I. 8. 8. 7. 7. Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov-3 Nov- Source: The Conference Board The Washington Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// Washington MSA Leading Economic Index.% Month-Over-Year Percent Change.%.% -.% -.% -Month Moving Average -.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index.% Month-Over-Year Percent Change.%.% -.% -.% -Month Moving Average -.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA - - 99 99 993 99 99 996 997 998 999 3 6 7 8 9 3 (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia 6 - - 99 99 993 99 99 996 997 998 999 3 6 7 8 9 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland 6 - - 99 99 993 99 99 996 997 998 999 3 6 7 8 9 3 (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia 6 - - 99 99 993 99 99 996 997 998 999 3 6 7 8 9 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
// (s) 8 6 - Largest Job Markets Job Change: Nov 3 Nov Washington +8,9.%.% Largest Job Markets Job Change: Nov 3 Nov Washington +.6% 3.%.%.%.% -.% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// 6 - - -6-8 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, - Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year 8 3 8 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Washington MSA - -3 - -3 (s) Total = 8,9 3 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. 8 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Washington MSA - - (s) Total = 8,6 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. - - - - Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 9 3 Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar 8 Nov- Total: 78. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
// - - - - Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 9 3 Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar 8 Nov- Total: 36.7 (s) Annual Data 6 3 - - -3 - Annual Job Change District of Columbia, - 8 Annual Month over Year 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov District of Columbia - (s) Total,6 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov District of Columbia - - (s) Total, (.) (.) -.. 3. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) Annual Data 6 3 - - -3 - Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, - 8 Annual Month over Year 3 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Suburban Maryland -3 - - - (s) Total,3 3 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Suburban Maryland - (s) Total 3,8 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. (s) Annual Data 6 3 - - -3 8 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, - Annual Month over Year 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Northern Virginia - - - - - (s) Total 6, 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Northern Virginia - (s) Total 3,6 3 (.) (.) -.. 3. 7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 7-8 6 7. DC.8 U.S..7 SMD. MSA 3.7 - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) 8. % 7. 6... 3.... Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Nov. US.8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) Metro Washington Annual Change in Employed Residents Month-Over-Year - - - 99 99 993 99 99 996 997 998 999 3 6 7 8 9 3 Annual Change Residents Employed Washington MSA (s) Annual Data - - - Annual Month over Year 9 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
// WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 8-Feb Feb -Nov -8-3 -3-3 - - -8 - -7 - (s) Total -78 Total 3-8 -6 - - 6 8 39 9 8 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: 8 6 Washington +39, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: 3 8 6 Washington + 3,3 Housing Market Trends GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
// 8 6 - - -6 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year, MSA Nov = +7.6% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month., Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Nov,, 8, -Month Moving Average 6,,, 3 9 8 7 6 3 999 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
// Total Listings Per Sale Nov Each Year PW PG - LDN ARL DC MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 3 3 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $37.3K Nov Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// % 3 - - 6 3 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change - -6 8 6 6 6 7 9 3 3 - Annual Change by Month 3 - - -7 6 6 9 6 8 3 3 3 3 8 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 7 9 - -3 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 3 - Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change 7 6 6 - - -7-8 - 8 7 8 9 9 3 7 8 8 6 6 Annual Change by Month 3-3 - -9-8 8-3- 3 3 7 8 6 7 - - 6 - -6 - -3 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// % 3 - - 6 Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change 3-8 -6 - - -8-6 -8 - -- - -9 - -- -3-6 - Annual Change by Month 3-7 - -3 - - - 9 7 8 9 3 6 - -3-3 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 3 - Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change 3-9 6 76 9 9 6 6 6 7 3-6 Annual Change by Month 3 - -3 3 8 9 8 6 7 8 3 6 7 7 - - -3-3 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 3 - - - -8 3 6 3 3 99 3 - - -7-3 38 3 7 9 7 88 3 7 6 - -3-9 Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Nov % : DC = -. SM = -.6, NV = +. % 3 - - -3 3 3 - Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached Annual Change -7 9 7 9 3 8 6 6 76 3 - - Annual Change by Month 3 7 3 8 7 8 33 9 6 3 77 7 3 6 3 3-9 Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Nov % : DC = +., SM = +.9, NV = +.7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 33
// Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos % 3 - Annual Change 3-8 - - 6-3 - -3-6 --- - - -7-6 -9 Annual Change by Month 3 8 989 8 9 77 6 3 7 6 87 6 89 66-33 - 9 - -3-9 Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Nov % : DC = +6., SM = -., NV = -.,, 3, 3,,,,, Washington MSA Building Permits, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// Total Active Listings Per Sale Nov Each Year Metro Area 8 6 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 7 6 3 - - Economic Outlook (GRP), -8 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) 3 6 7 8 9 3 6 7 8 9 NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: October GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
// Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 3 6 7 8 D.C...6. 6. 8. 9.8. 3.6 Sub. MD..8 6.7. 7...9. No. VA 6. 3..6 7.8 7.7 3. 6.9.7 REGION.6 3. 3.3 6. 3. 3. 6.8 9. Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 99- = 3,8 % 8 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 8 6 U.S. - Washington - 3 6 7 8 9 3 6 7 8 9 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: October GMU Center for Regional Analysis 36
// Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 37