Prince William County Chamber of Commerce The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for The U.S. and Washington Region s Economies Plus Prince William County 2015-2025 Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University November 3, 2017
(%) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 2015 2021 (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (March 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
How is the U.S. economy performing and what is the outlook for 2018?
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0Q 2Q 4Q 6Q 8Q 10Q 12Q 14Q 16Q 18Q 20Q 22Q 24Q 26Q 28Q 30Q 32Q Quarters After Trough *in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars ** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2009-Q2 2001-Q4**
U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 15.0 10.0 5.0 - (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 4.0 2.0 - (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 U.S. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs Month-Over-The-Year Sep = +1.8 M Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Ranked by Size in 2016 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector September 2016 September 2017-69 -78 (000s) -4 43 55 54 183 118 150 234 105 477 528 Total = +1,796 (600) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
% 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 U.S. Unemployment Rate September 2009 September 2017 Sep 17 = 4.2% IHS Forecast 17 4.4 18 4.1 19 4.0 20 4.1 21 4.2 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
($/barrel) 120 100 80 Brent Crude Spot Price $ per barrel Forecast 60 40 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
U.S. Consumer Confidence September 2010 September 2017 160 140 120 100 Expectations 80 60 40 20 Present - Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 U.S. Consumer Prices Percent Change, 2001-2021 Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 U.S. Interest Rates Average Annual, 2001-2021 Forecast 30-Yr 10-Yr Treasury Fed Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (000s) 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Sources: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
U.S. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays (%) 5 4 3 2 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.6 Forecast 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 1 0-1 -2-0.3-1.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
% 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 2018 Forecast -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
How is the Washington Region s economy currently performing?
Washington Region
GRP Growth in Washington and Peer Metros, 2010 2016 100 = 2010 130 125 120 115 110 105 Dallas (1st) Seattle (3rd) Houston (4th) Atlanta (5th) Boston (8th) Washington (15th) 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 Annual Change Annual Job Change, 2002-2017 Washington Region Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 = +44.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 15 Largest U.S. Job Markets Job Change: September 2016 September 2017 Washington: +44,500 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
15 Largest U.S. Job Markets Job Change: September 2016 September 2017 3.0% 2.5% Washington: +1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Ranked by Size in 2016 Prof. & Business Services Edu.& Health Services Federal Govt State & Local Govt Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Washington MSA Job Change by Sector September 2016 September 2017-3 -2-1 (000s) -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 0 0 3 3 4 4 4 6 10 17 Total = 44,500
(000s) 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Professional and Business Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Sep 17 Total = 755.7 Administrative & Waste Management Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Education and Health Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Sep 17 Total = 444.0 Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Annual Change Federal Government Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 Total = 365.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 20 Leisure and Hospitality Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment Sep 17 Total = 333.2 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Annual Change Northern Virginia Annual Job Change, 2002-2017 Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 = +10.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Ranked by Size in 2016 Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services State & Local Govt Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Federal Govt Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector September 2016 September 2017-3.7-2.9-3.5-1.0 (000s) 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4 3.4 3.3 2.3-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 10.2 Total = 10,700
Washington Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 2010-2017 (%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 6.6 DC 4.4 U.S. 3.7 MSA 3.6 SMD 3.2 NVA 0 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
What is the Washington Region s economic near-term outlook?
Employment Change by Sub-State Area Baseline Forecast (000s) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 D.C. 5.2 15.9 13.0 10.4 9.2 8.1 6.2 5.5 Sub. MD 10.2 12.5 14.4 22.8 16.6 16.2 13.1 12.3 No. VA 0.8 29.8 31.0 19.8 20.4 20.8 15.1 13.0 REGION 18.6 57.7 55.6 53.0 46.2 45.1 34.4 30.8 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,300 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017) NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
(%) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Washington MSA and Sub-State Areas Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2021 (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) Forecast NoVA WMSA Sub MD DC Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Local Serving Activities 34.8% Non-Local Serving Business 12.0% The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy 2010 2021 Other Federal 10.7% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Procurement 19.1% Non-Local Serving Business 19.1% Local Serving Activities 38.3% Other Federal 7.7% Total Federal 27.2% Fed Wages & Salaries 6.7% Procurement 12.8% Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 2017
(%) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 2015 2021 (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (March 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Prince William County s Economy: 2015-2025
Economic Change in Prince William County: 2015-2025 Ten-year % Change Population 16.2% Employment 19.6% Job/resident in 2015 =.307; in 2025 =.316 P&BS 49.9% Edu & Health Services 27.6% Leisure & Hospitality Services 22.3% Real GCP* 5.4% Household Income Current $s) 38.3% Personal Income (Current $s) 70.1% Retail Sales (Current $s) 59.9% Retail Sales (Real $s) 32.5% *gross county product
Employment Change in Prince William County: 2015-2025 Sector 2015 2025 Professional & Business Services 14.5% (22.7)* 18.2% (26.1)* Education & Health Services 11.8% (13.3) 12.6% (13.7) Leisure & Hospitality Services 11.8% (9.8) 12.1% (9.7) Total Shares 38.1% (45.8) 42.9% (49.4) Note: the average contribution to GRP of P&BS jobs is $157,969, Ed & Health Services is $72,162, and Leisure and Hospitality Services is $51,110 in 2014$s. *(percent in Washington metropolitan area)
GCP* Change in Prince William County: 2015-2025 (in real $s) 2015 2025 % Change Real GCP $23.795b $30.001b 26.1% GCP per job $152,536 $160,835 5.4 GRP per job in WMSA $140,064 $152,443 8.8 *gross county product
Net Fiscal Impact of Residents and Jobs in Prince William County: FY2015 Source Per Capita Per Job Expenditures $1,975.95 $731.20 (Education) ($923.59) Revenues $1,844.99 $1,207.69 (Real estate tax) ($1,052.02) ($592.27) Net Fiscal Impact - $130.96 $476.49
Economic Impact of Residents and Jobs in Prince William County Construction Impacts: 5.77 jobs* Post-Construction: HH Annual Local Spending: retail @ 11.3 jobs* HH Assets: not dissimilar to business investment *per million dollars
Thank You & Questions For monthly reports on the Washington region s economic performance go to: sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu