Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends December 27, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-3 jabbott@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Buybacks & Dividends 3- Buybacks 7 S&P 1/// Divisors Buybacks & Dividends 9 Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings 1 December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks & Dividends 7 Figure 1. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) 7 -Quarter Sum (17.7) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Figure 2. S&P DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, annualized) 3 3 3 -Quarter Sum 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Page 3 / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks & Dividends 2 Figure 3. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly) 2 1 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 12 1 Figure. S&P DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, quarterly) 12 1 2 2 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Page / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
3 27 2 22 2 Figure. S&P DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) Buybacks Dividends S&P Index Buybacks & Dividends Nov 3 27 2 22 2 17 1 12 17 1 12 1 7 2 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Source: Standard & Poor s. 1 7 2 7 3 2 1 13 12 11 1 9 7 3 Figure. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) S&P FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD (percent) S&P Forward Earnings Yield* (.) BoA Merrill Lynch AA-AAA Corporate Bond Yield (3.7) 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Nov 7 3 2 1 13 12 11 1 9 7 3 * Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P stock price index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Standard & Poor s and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Page / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
Buybacks & Dividends 12 1 Figure 7. S&P BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, annualized) 12 1 Total (931) 2 2 7 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 7 Buybacks (17) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 3 3 2 Dividends (22) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 -quarter sum Source: Standard & Poor s. 1 Page / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
2 Figure. TOTAL GROSS ISSUANCE OF STOCKS MINUS S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars) Total Gross Issuance of Stocks Minus S&P Buybacks (annualized) Buybacks 2-2 -2 - - - Corporate Equities: Net Issuance Nonfinancial Corporate Business (-quarter sum) - - 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor s Corporation. - Page 7 / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
9 7 3 2 1 Figure 9. S&P 1 DIVISOR* S&P 1/// Divisors 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2 S&P 1 DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2 2-2 - - 97 92 S&P DIVISOR* S&P DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1 7 2 2 77-2 72 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2-3 2 S&P MIDCAP DIVISOR* S&P MIDCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1 2-1 -1 1-1 -2 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2-2 2 2 1 S&P SMALLCAP DIVISOR* S&P SMALLCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change) 1-1 -1-1 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2 9 9 2 1 12 1 1 1 2-2 * Divisor is used to ensure that changes in shares outstanding, capital actions, and the addition or deletion of stocks to the index do not change the level of the index. Page / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
12 Figure 1. S&P YIELD FROM BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS Buybacks & Dividends 12 1 1 Buybacks + Dividends (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) (93.9) 2 7 3 2 1 Yield (%) Buybacks (2.) Dividends (1.91) Buybacks + Dividends (.31) 199 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 2 7 3 2 1 2 17 1 12 Figure 11. S&P BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly) 2 17 1 12 1 1 7 7 2 2 1. 1. 1.2 1.. Buybacks as a % of S&P Market Cap (.) 1.2 1.......2. 199 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219.2. Page 9 / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
1 12 1 2 1 12 Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings Figure 12. S&P BUYBACKS, DIVIDENDS, & OPERATING EARNINGS (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) Buybacks (17.7) Operating Earnings (117.1) Dividends (13.2) Buybacks+Dividends (93.9) Buybacks+Dividends as percent of Operating Earnings (91.) 1 12 1 2 1 12 1 7 1 7 1999 2 21 22 23 2 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 1 12 1 Figure 13. S&P EX-ENERGY BUYBACKS, DIVIDENDS, & OPERATING EARNINGS (billion dollars, trailing four-quarter) Buybacks (9.2) Operating Earnings (99.1) Dividends (37.3) Buybacks+Dividends (.) 1 12 1 2 2 17 1 Buybacks+Dividends as percent of Operating Earnings (9.) Capped at 1% due to extreme values. 17 1 12 12 1 1 7 7 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 21 219 Page 1 / December 27, 217 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P Buybacks & Dividends www.
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