(161390 KS/Buy) Auto Company Update May 26, 2014 Tour of China operations: A tough market, but firm is still a winner Visit to s operations in China Tire market in China not the friendliest Nevertheless, to maintain a strong foothold in China Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. [Auto] Michael Yun +822-768-4169 michael.yun@dwsec.com Young-ho Park +822-768-3033 youngho.park@dwsec.com 1. Visit to s Shanghai HQ and Jiaxing plant has five operational sites in China. The firm s China HQ is located in Shanghai, and it has manufacturing facilities in Jiangsu, Jiaxing, and Chongqing, plus one R&D center (China Technical Center). It also has 24 sales HQs across the country (13 for passenger tires and 11 for truck tires). We had a chance to visit the firm s Shanghai HQ and Jiaxing plant May 22 nd -23 rd. s China production in 2013 totaled 27.9mn units (domestic market: 18.6mn; exports: 9.3mn), and the firm forecasts 2% growth in 2014 to 28.5mn units. Going forward, plans to focus more on China s domestic market, and expects to increase capacity in the country to 40mn units by 2020 (currently 31.2mn units), in line with the fastgrowing replacement equipment (RE) demand in China. is targeting a CAGR of 8.4% to 2020 in the China market. 2. One of the most established tire makers in China entered China s tire market in 1994, and started operations at its Jiaxing and Jiangsu plants in 1999. Hence, is one of the oldest foreign companies in China (along with VW). In addition to the firm s continuous investments in the country, Hankook Tire s brand recognition is very high in China compared to other regions (i.e., the US and Europe). For example, a survey in 2013 showed that s brand awareness in China was ranked first among global tire makers, with a substantial lead over Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear. However, the same survey showed that in terms of brand preference, ranked slightly lower in China than Michelin and Bridgestone, though the firm was on the same level as Goodyear. 3. A strong foothold in a very competitive market We forecast China s RE market to maintain nearly 10% annual growth over the long term. However, the growth of the RE market lags growth in new cars and units in operations (UIO) due to a longer-than-expected replacement cycle. While Korean consumers replace their tires every 80,000km on average, Chinese consumers replace them nearly every 100,000km. We believe safety awareness and regulations in China are not yet as advanced as in developed markets. FY (Dec.) 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14F 12/15F 12/16F Revenue (Wbn) - 2,317 7,069 7,422 8,249 8,608 OP (Wbn) - 309 1,031 1,111 1,213 1,262 OP margin (%) - 13.3 14.6 15.0 14.7 14.7 NP (Wbn) - 232 738 828 915 956 EPS (W) - - 5,957 6,685 7,384 7,715 ROE (%) - - 20.7 19.2 17.8 15.9 P/E (x) - - 10.2 9.0 8.1 7.8 P/B (x) - 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the t U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
May 26, 2014 Meanwhile, China s tire market is oversupplied. Asian tire makers, including Cheng Shin Rubber and Giti Tire, have recently been increasing capacity aggressively in China. In addition, 15% of the total tire market is comprised of No Claim Tires, which are considered to be lowquality tires without warranties or assurances. This has caused severe pricing competition in China s tire market among the global tire makers. Against this backdrop, has been focusing on: 1) increasing its portion of ultrahigh performance tires (UHPT) and high-end tires, 2) enhancing its distribution channels, and 3) further improving brand awareness in order to maintain a strong foothold in China s tire market. is enjoying robust growth in its UHPT business in China in step with the strong growth of the country s UHPT market, thanks to strong demand for luxury cars and SUVs. s increasing number of dealers in China is illustrative: the firm had 1,563 exclusive dealers in 2012, but this increased to 2,262 in 2013 and 2,416 in 1Q14. Table 1. Tire s Ch Chinese business overview 1994 Established China China HQ in Beijing 1996 Broke ground on Jiaxing and Jiangsu plants 1998 Established CTC (China Technical Center) 1999 SOP of Jiaxing and Jiangsu plants; Moved HQ to Shanghai 2002 SOP of Jiaxing TBR (truck & bus tires) factory 2010 Broke ground on Chongqing plant 2012 SOP of Chongqing plant; Introduced dealership brand Hankook Masters 2013 Expanded Chongqing s PCR capacity Source: Company data, Figure 1. Tire s operations in China Source: Company data, 2
Figure 2. Average utilization rate of China s tire industry Figure 3. Utilization rate of major tire companies in China (%) 95 PCR (passenger) TBR (truck, bus) (%) 120 PCR (passenger) TBR (truck, bus) 90 90% 100 85 86% 80 81% 60 80 76% 40 75 5/13 8/13 11/13 2/14 Source: Company data, Source: Figure 4. China s PCR market distribution Source:, 4. Strong OE business, another future growth driver Despite a very competitive RE market, has been able to maintain double-digit OP margin levels thanks to lower raw materials prices and a lower cost structure compared to other global plants. However, we believe the firm s strong presence in the original equipment (OE) market is also helping it to maintain solid margins. s domestic customers in China are VW, Hyundai Motor Group, Audi, and Mercedes among the global OEMs, as well as Beijing Auto and Shanghai Auto among local Chinese customers. also exports to OEMs from China, including Audi, BMW, VW, Mercedes, and the US Big 3. This has allowed to increase its UHPT portion while maintaining a full utilization rate. 3
5. A closer look at the Jiaxing plant, the heart of s China business s Jiaxing plant, which is located just south of Shanghai, has an annual capacity of 20mn units, two-thirds of the firm s total China capacity. The Jiaxing plant s first factory started operations in 1999 along with the Jiangsu plant, and was built to supply OE tires to VW. Since then, the Jiaxing plant has been the major tire supplier for OEMs in China s southern region. The plant s sales mix improved dramatically after it began production of luxury-brand OE tires (initially to Audi), increasing the plant s UHPT ratio. In 2013, the Jiaxing plant s UHPT ratio stood at 42%, and the company expects this to increase to 52% in 2014. Meanwhile, the plant s OE production ratio jumped to 67% in 2013 (58% in 2012) as production increased by 13.9%. In 2014, however, plans to export more RE tires, which will result in the OE portion declining to 62%. Table 2.. Hankook s s manufacturing plants in China C Jiaxing plant Jiangsu plant Chongqing plant SOP 1999 1999 2012 Area 380,000 m2 347,000 m2 532,000 m2 Products PCR, LTR PCR, LTR, TBR PCR, LTR, TBR Utilization days 352days/yr 352days/yr 352days/yr Capacity (2014) 59,400/day (20mn/yr) 30,000/day (10mn/yr) 2,560/day (900,000/yr) Total investment (US$mn) 430 430 280 Capital (US$mn) 190 170 100 Note: SOP: Start of Production; PCR: Passenger Car Radial; LTR: Light Truck Radial; TBR: Truck/Bus Radial; Chongqing s capacity is for TBR Source: Company data, Figure 5. Jiaxing s s production trend and outlook (mn units) 25.0 20.0 15.8 17.4 17.1 18.8 19.6 20.4 20.2 20.6 15.0 12.7 10.0 7.5 5.0 0.0 03 05 06 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (plan) Source: Company data, 6. Conclusion: Taking longer than expected, but long-term growth prospects still bright It is true that s China business faces a tough environment in China s tire market, including overcapacity and price competition. However, we still maintain a positive outlook on the company s long-term future. Despite stagnant top-line growth, we have confidence in the firm s ability to maintain sustainable margin levels. Here are the reasons why: 1) A strong presence in China s OE market with customers including VW and Hyundai Motor Group, which will enable to maintain a high utilization rate and enjoy the growth of these major OEM players in China. 2) Increasing OEs to premium brands, along with more production of UHPT and SUV tires, which will enable continuous mix improvement. 3) Maintaining a Tier 1 brand presence in China along with Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear. All in all, we believe has a very strong foothold in China s tire market. In addition 4
to a strong customer base, will continue to benefit from mix improvement and solid growth in China s RE market. Thus, we maintain a Buy rating on with a 12- month target price of W78,000. 5
APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (161390) 10/28/2013 Buy 78,000 07/30/2013 Buy 68,000 04/28/2013 Buy 63,000 02/04/2013 Buy 57,000 11/02/2012 Buy 61,000 (W) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 May 12 May 13 May 14 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ), Target price ( ), Not covered ( ), Buy ( ), Trading Buy ( ), Hold ( ), Sell ( )) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Disclosures Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.`s analyst attended the IR meeting held by within recent one month. Expenses related to the meeting were covered by Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the Analysts ) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers This report is published by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. ( Daewoo ), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Daewoo. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. 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Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. KDB Daewoo Securities International Network Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Head Office 34-3 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu Seoul 150-716 Korea Two International Finance Centre Suites 2005-2012 8 Finance Street, Central Hong Kong 320 Park Avenue, 31st Fl. New York, NY 10022 United States Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Tel: 85-2-2514-1304 Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Tokyo Representative Office Tower 42, Level 41 25 Old Broad Street London EC2N 1HQ United Kingdom 6 Battery Road, #11-01 Singapore, 049909 7th Floor, Yusen Building 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-0005 Japan Tel: 44-20-7982-8016 Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 81-3- 3211-5511 Beijing Representative Office Shanghai Representative Office Ho Chi Minh Representative Office Suite 2602, Twin Towers (East) B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022 China Unit 13, 28 th Floor, Hang Seng Bank Tower 1000 Lujiazui Ring Road Pudong New Area, Shanghai 200120 China Centec Tower 72-74 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Street Ward 6, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 86-21-5013-6392 Tel: 84-8-3910-6000 7