Changing Trends and Investor Bases of Asian Bond Markets Sabyasachi Mitra, Asian Development Bank S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawaii A Presentation at the 21 st OECD Global Forum on Public Debt Management January 2012 1
Domestic Debt Securities by Region Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP % of World East Asia (Excluding Japan) 996.60 5,519.10 18.7% 51.1% 7.9% Japan 5,648.11 14,172.26 9.6% 242.0% 20.3% United States 14,042.71 25,474.21 6.1% 169.1% 36.4% EU22 6,171.67 17,678.38 11.1% 100.3% 25.3% World 28,805.01 69,912.83 9.3% 108.6% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 2
Domestic Debt Securities by East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China 214.71 3,141.23 30.8% 44.9% Chinese Taipei 119.33 272.92 8.6% 54.1% Hong Kong SAR 46.17 55.78 1.9% 22.6% Indonesia 47.14 110.24 8.9% 13.2% Malaysia 62.74 282.11 16.2% 114.0% Philippines 21.80 65.26 11.6% 30.2% Singapore 45.60 138.12 11.7% 51.8% Korea 406.16 1,228.56 11.7% 105.6% Thailand 32.93 224.88 21.2% 66.3% East Asia (Excluding Japan) 996.60 5,519.10 18.7% 51.1% Japan 5,648.11 14,172.26 9.6% 242.0% Source: BIS. IMF 3
Government Debt by Region Unit: US$ Billion Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate % of GDP % of World East Asia Ex Japan 442.87 2,765.36 20.1% 25.6% 6.7% Japan 3,654.96 12,090.88 12.7% 206.5% 29.4% United States 4,047.59 11,605.66 11.1% 77.0% 28.3% EU22 3,517.35 10,118.68 11.1% 57.4% 24.6% World 12,950.43 41,058.95 12.2% 63.8% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 4
Government Debt: East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China 119.27 1,485.22 28.7% 21.3% Chinese Taipei 46.07 164.41 13.6% 32.6% Hong Kong SAR 15.62 17.36 1.1% 7.0% Indonesia 45.13 97.76 8.0% 11.7% Malaysia 29.16 128.46 16.0% 51.9% Philippines 21.50 63.22 11.4% 29.3% Singapore 26.97 112.68 15.4% 42.3% Korea 120.81 534.16 16.0% 45.9% Thailand 18.35 162.09 24.3% 47.8% East Asia Ex Japan 442.87 2,765.36 20.1% 25.6% Japan 3,654.96 12,090.88 12.7% 206.5% Source: BIS. IMF 5
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: United States 30000 Unit: US$ Billion 25000 20000 Corporate Financial Government 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: BIS 6
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: EU 22 20000 Unit: US$ Billion 18000 16000 14000 12000 Corporate Financial Government 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: BIS 7
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: Japan Unit: US$ Billion 16000 14000 12000 10000 Corporate Financial Government 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: BIS 8
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: East Asia Unit: US$ Billion 6000 5000 4000 Corporate Financial Government 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: BIS 9
International Debt Securities Issued by Region Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Unit: US$ Billion Annual Growth Rate % of GDP % of World East Asia (w/o Japan) 185.54 568.27 11.8% 5.3% 2.0% Japan 269.48 414.45 4.4% 7.1% 1.5% United States 2,041.09 7,328.70 13.6% 48.6% 26.0% EU22 3,151.58 16,866.29 18.3% 95.7% 59.8% World 6,517.84 28,186.24 15.8% 43.8% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 10
Relative Size: International Debt Securities 100.0% 95.7% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% % of GDP % of World 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 48.6% 59.8% 43.8% 40.0% 30.0% 26.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5.3% 7.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% East Asia Ex Japan Japan United States EU22 World Source: BIS, IMF 11
International Debt Securities by East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China 18.85 112.51 19.6% 1.6% Chinese Taipei 7.99 12.15 4.3% 2.4% Hong Kong SAR 37.58 87.11 8.8% 35.3% Indonesia 9.38 39.75 15.5% 4.8% Malaysia 16.56 41.43 9.6% 16.7% Philippines 17.96 43.11 9.1% 19.9% Singapore 17.30 64.12 14.0% 24.1% Korea 47.21 156.89 12.8% 13.5% Thailand 12.72 11.20-1.3% 3.3% East Asia (w/o Japan) 185.54 568.27 11.8% 5.3% Japan 269.48 414.45 4.4% 7.1% Source: BIS. IMF 12
Investors in East Asian Bonds ECONOMIES Unit: US$ billion AMOUNT EU $226.42 United States 96.47 China, P.R. & Hong Kong 46.45 Singapore 43.63 Japan 27.49 Thailand 8.42 Malaysia 5.63 Korea 2.52 Macao 1.87 Philippines 1.03 Indonesia 0.83 Others 154.96 World $615.72 Source: IMF 13
Investors in Japanese Bonds $MM % EU 108,954.58 37.95% Others 47% EU 38% United States 30,509.00 10.63% Hong Kong 10,776.58 3.75% Singapore 1,239.85 0.43% Korea 0% United States 11% Hong Singapore Kong 0% 4% Korea 1,219.63 0.42% Others 134,368.95 46.81% World 287,068.59 100.00% Source: IMF 14
Investors in Chinese Bonds United States 7% Singapore 7% Japan 2% Macao 2% Korea 1% Others 5% $MM % Hong Kong 12,506.0 54.6% EU 4,959.9 21.6% Singapore 1,721.0 7.5% United States 1,572.0 6.9% EU 22% Hong Kong 54% Japan 494.1 2.2% Macao 452.7 2.0% Korea 145.9 0.6% Others 1,069.2 4.7% World 22,921 100.0% Source: IMF 15
Investors in Korean Bonds Thailand 6% Others 7% $MM % EU 47307.03 37.06% Japan 9% Hong Kong 11% EU 37% United States 24890.00 19.50% Singapore 13774.77 10.79% Hong Kong 13573.88 10.63% Japan 11649.55 9.13% Singapore 11% United States 19% Thailand 7906.03 6.19% Others 8545.31 6.69% World 127646.57 100.00% Source: IMF 16
Investors in Hong Kong Bonds Malaysia 1% Korea 2% Macao 5% Thailand Philippines 1% 1% Japan 8% United States 12% Singapore 25% Others 7% EU 38% $MM % EU 7028.90 37.75% Singapore 4570.49 24.55% United States 2228.00 11.97% Japan 1443.30 7.75% Macao 967.67 5.20% Korea 404.80 2.17% Malaysia 233.50 1.25% Thailand 215.46 1.16% Philippines 209.88 1.13% Others 1315.57 7.07% World 18617.57 100.00% Source: IMF 17
Investors in Singapore Bonds Malaysia 6% Indonesia 2% Others 15% EU 30% $MM % EU 10,311.76 30.46% United States 7,190.00 21.24% Japan 4,663.78 13.78% Hong Kong 4,065.64 12.01% Hong Kong 12% Japan 14% United States 21% Malaysia 1,966.66 5.81% Indonesia 621.51 1.84% Others 5,033.98 14.87% World 33,853.33 100.00% Source: IMF 18
Investors in Australian Bonds $MM % Singapore 2% Hong Kong 5% Others 18% EU 29% EU 150,616.58 29.00% United States 122,978.00 23.68% Japan 114,116.26 21.98% Hong Kong 27,634.43 5.32% Japan 22% United States 24% Singapore 12,200.74 2.35% Others 91,734.19 17.67% World 519,280.21 100.00% Source: IMF 19
Investors in Thai Bonds Hong Kong 1% Malaysia 2% Japan 8% Korea 1% Others 9% EU 36% $MM % EU 3561.90 35.85% Singapore 2280.28 22.95% United States 1953.00 19.66% Japan 851.42 8.57% United States 20% Malaysia 164.87 1.66% Hong Kong 153.83 1.55% Singapore 23% Korea 82.58 0.83% Others 887.83 8.94% World 9935.72 100.00% Source: IMF 20
Investors in Malaysian Bonds Japan Hong 7% Kong 8% Singapore 16% Others 4% Source: IMF United States 25% EU 40% $M % EU 15969.68 40.29% United States 10017.00 25.27% Singapore 6468.41 16.32% Hong Kong 3091.40 7.80% Japan 2772.51 6.99% Others 1322.74 3.34% World 39641.74 100.00% 21
Investment in East Asian bonds by Asian Economies in Proportion to Total Investments 70.00% 60.00% 63.26% 50.00% 52.28% 40.00% 30.00% 29.02% 34.42% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 18.27% 18.79% 1.04% 8.43% 19.59% Source: IMF 22
Investor Profile for Japan JPY billion 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 Other Financial Institutions Financial Auxilliaries Nonfinancial Corporations General Government Households Private Nonprofit InstitutionsServing Households Overseas Central Bank Insurance and Pension Funds Depository Corporations 0 2000 2006 Jun-11 Source: Asian Development Bank
Investor Profile: China CNY billion 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2006 Sep-11 Others Individuals Funds Institutions Banks Non Bank Financial Institutions Insurance Institutions Special Members Source: Asian Development Bank
IDR billion Investor Profile: Indonesia 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2002 2006 Sep-11 Others Foreign Holders Pension Funds Mutual Funds Insurance Bank Indonesia Banks Source: Asian Development Bank
KRW billion 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Investor Profile: Korea 2002 2006 Jun-11 Rest of the World Individual Sector Business Sector Government Sector Other Financial Companies Insurance & Pension Funds Banks Source: Asian Development Bank
MYR billion Investor Profile: Malaysia 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2006 Jun-11 Public Sector Foreign Holders Insurance Companies Social Security Institutions Bank Negara Malaysia Financial Institutions Source: Asian Development Bank
THB billion 3,000.00 2,500.00 Investor Profile: Thailand Nonresidents General Government and Non-profit Organizations Residents 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00-2003 2006 Sep-11 Other Nonfinancial Corporations Contractual Savings Funds Non-Financial Market Mutual Funds Insurance Companies Financial Coporations not elsewhere classified Commercial Banks Central Bank Source: Asian Development Bank
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