Outlook for the Economy LUIS TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSOCIATE BAILEY CUADRA RESEARCH ASSISTANT TECHNICAL REPORT 2 4 6 DECEMBER 217 TR
Contents About this Report... 3 October 217 Summary... 4 Economic Activity... 8 Gross State Product... 8 Business Cycle Index and Leading Index... 8 Major Metros Business Cycle Index... 9 Consumer Confidence Index... 9 Financial Activity... 1 3-Year Mortgage Rate and 1-Year Bond Yield... 1 Housing... 1 Housing Sales... 1 Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator... 11 Construction Values... 11 Major Metros Total Construction Values... 12 Energy... 12 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices... 12 Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count... 13 Employment... 13 Employment Growth Rate... 13 Major Metros Employment Growth Rate... 14 Unemployment Rate... 14 Major Metros Unemployment Rate... 15 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications... 15 Labor Force Participation Rate... 16 Manufacturing Employment... 16 Major Metros Manufacturing Employment... 17 Construction Employment... 17 Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings... 18 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings... 18 Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings... 19
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings... 19 Manufacturing... 2 Manufacturing Outlook Survey... 2 Services... 2 Retail Sector... 2 Services Sector Outlook Survey... 21 CPI Inflation Rates... 21 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components)... 22 Trade... 22 Exports (All Commodities)... 22 Manufacturing Exports... 23 Crude Oil Exports... 23 Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar... 24 Exports by Country... 24 2
About this Report Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and economies. Outlook for the Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise. This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to info@recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Bailey Cuadra Data current as of December 5, 217 217, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved. 3
October 217 Summary 1 The economy advanced as Houston s recovery continued, and the price of oil reached an eight-month high. Rebounds in leisure-hospitality and accommodation-food services pushed monthly employment growth above 71, new jobs. The statewide unemployment rate fell to a record low 3.9 percent but failed to significantly boost wages. Gulf Coast rebuilding efforts supported the construction industry, generating rapid job creation and increased construction values. A combination of higher oil prices and declines in the trade-weighted value of the dollar boosted crude oil exports to record levels. Potential headwinds to the economy include energy price volatility and trade uncertainty, especially with Mexico. Recently released 2Q17 gross state product data for indicated 6.2 percent quarterly annualized growth amid accelerated activity in mining, manufacturing, and real estate. The economic expansion continued through the third quarter as the Business Cycle Index (a measure of current economic activity in the state) posted over 5 percent quarterly annualized growth in each of the past three months. The Austin and San Antonio indices surpassed the state level at 7.2 and 5.7 percent quarterly annualized, respectively, after solid job gains and falling unemployment. Similarly, the Dallas index accelerated above 5 percent for the first time this year, while Fort Worth slowed slightly to 3.6 percent growth. Hurricane recovery efforts stabilized the Houston index after contracting 5.5 percent in the previous month. The Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle) inched forward as growth in the U.S. leading index and higher oil prices outweighed a slowdown in monthly well permits issued. The Consumer Confidence Index flattened after taking a double digit hit from Hurricane Harvey in the previous month but should trend upward as the economic expansion advances. Interest rates elevated after the U.S. Senate approved a budget resolution, opening the door for tax reform. The potential deficit increase resulting from tax breaks would expand the number of bonds issued, weighing on the price of existing debt. If tax cuts sufficiently stimulate economic activity, it could attract investors away from bonds in favor of riskier assets. Yields received an extra boost after the release of the Federal Reserve Board minutes, indicating a high likelihood of raising the federal funds rate in December. As a result, the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rebounded from a year-to-date (YTD) low last month, reaching 2.36 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 3-year fixed-rate also reversed its downward trend, reaching 3.9 percent after slipping in the third quarter. housing sales expanded across the state despite shortages of homes priced under $3,. Current residential construction activity, measured by the Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, flattened as industry employment gains offset falling construction values. 1 All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise. 4
However, rebounds in weighted building permits and housing starts accelerated the Residential Construction Leading Index for the first time since March, signaling increased activity in upcoming months. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.) The average West intermediate crude oil spot price increased to $51.58 2, the highest since February, driven by geopolitical tension in the Middle East and hopes of extended OPEC production cuts. Despite the number of active rigs in falling to 442 2, crude oil production rebounded 6. percent amid rising well completions. Increased shale activity could counter OPEC supply cuts, thereby hindering upward oil price momentum. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell to $2.88 per million BTU 2 (British thermal unit) despite decreased global supply, a trend that could continue amid predictions of a colder-than-average winter in the northern. monthly nonfarm employment added 71,5 jobs as Houston landed back on its feet after two months of hurricane-related payroll declines. The unemployment rate dipped to a record low 3.9 percent as labor markets tightened across the state. In Austin, the unemployment rate fell to 2.7 percent, the lowest since 1999. Unemployment fell to 3.2 percent in both Dallas and Fort Worth, while settling at 3. percent in San Antonio. Houston unemployment persisted above the state level at 4.4 percent, still well below its historical average. Revised data revealed a surge in initial unemployment insurance claims in through September, rather than the large drop reported last month. However, the series shifted to more typical levels, falling 29.6 percent this month and should decline even further as the Houston economy recovers. Despite the tightening labor market, the labor force participation rate remained at a historically low 63. percent. This month s payroll expansion occurred primarily in Houston, where recoveries in the leisure and hospitality industry as well as retail trade led to 27,3 total new jobs. Dallas added jobs in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors, elevating its 217 job creation total to 41,5. San Antonio maintained the largest YTD job growth rate at 2.3 percent, adding over 2,3 jobs in each of the past five months. Austin and Fort Worth added 3, and 2,5 jobs, respectively, as growth in leisure and hospitality offset goods-producing employment contractions. Statewide, the service-providing sector more than recovered the 15,8 jobs lost in August and September. The leisure and hospitality subsector led the charge with 34,7 jobs created, followed by accommodation and food services with 3,. The Service Sector Outlook Survey corroborated these trends as the wages and benefits, hours worked, and employment indices elevated. Increases in the revenue and service sector outlook indices reflected improved conditions after the hurricane. The retail industry fared similarly well, recovering nearly a third of the 25,1 jobs lost between February and September. The Retail Outlook Survey employment indices indicated job 2 Nonseasonally adjusted. 5
growth but slightly lower wage pressures. Despite approaching the holiday season, retailer optimism and future outlook decelerated. The goods-producing sector maintained its steady expansion, adding 6,8 jobs and pushing the YTD total above 84,. Supported by higher oil prices, ranked second nationally in year-over year (YOY) employment growth in mining and logging at 16.9 percent, adding 3,2 in October. The construction industry created 4,5 jobs amid rebuilding efforts around the Gulf Coast, pushing annualized growth to 3.1 percent, nearly twice the national rate. The total value of construction increased for the first time on a three-month moving average since May, led by investment in stores, restaurants, offices, and bank buildings. Residential construction values remained negative, but single-family home building ticked upward. manufacturing employment growth slowed from 5.4 to 4.1 percent annualized quarterly, shedding 9 jobs this month. Dallas posted the highest manufacturing growth rate at 8. percent, reaching a 2-year high after lackluster performance over the past two years. Fort Worth maintained 7.7 percent growth, thereby contributing to the robustness of the manufacturing industry in North. Austin s manufacturing growth rate accelerated to 4.8 percent after stagnating late this summer, while growth in San Antonio decelerated to 2.6 percent. The Houston annualized employment growth rate fell to -2.3 percent, a drastic slide from double-digit positive readings between April and July. Houston has lost over 4, durable-goods manufacturing jobs since August, all of which should recover as economic conditions normalize. The Manufacturing Outlook Survey confirmed the overall industry expansion, indicating increased activity and demand. The production index extended its positive trend to 16 months, and over 3 percent of respondents reported improved business activity. The hours worked and wage indices slowed, supporting recent labor market adjustments in manufacturing, particularly along the Gulf Coast. Respondents mentioned prolonged supply chain disruptions from the hurricane and subsequent flooding but remained optimistic for the fourth quarter. Despite low unemployment levels, employee compensation remained relatively mute throughout the state. Real private hourly earnings hovered around 1.9 percent YTD after sliding in August and September. Wages fell 1.1 and 2.2 percent YOY in Fort Worth and Houston, respectively. Hourly earnings rose.8 percent in Austin barely above last year s level. Wage growth was more favorable in Dallas and San Antonio, rising 2.4 and 2.1 YOY, respectively. While wages lagged the national level by $.4, manufacturing jobs paid an 11.3 percent premium in hourly earnings relative to U.S. average. Fort Worth had the highest manufacturing wages, paying 48.2 percent more than the statewide average but were flat on the year. Manufacturing earnings fell 1.2 percent in Houston amid production process disruptions. San Antonio remained the outlier for wage growth, rising 14.7 percent YTD while remaining 19.5 percent below the average. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2. percent YOY after hurricane-related energy price spikes calmed. The core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile energy and food sectors, 6
increased 1.8 percent YOY, indicating upward price pressure. Prices remained elevated in Houston as the local CPI rose 2.3 percent YOY, the highest since 214. Gasoline and medical care expenses rose over 4.5 YOY, accounting for most of the Houston inflation. The U.S. real goods trade deficit increased by $3.1 billion to $65.3 billion as commodity imports rose and exports flattened. Total commodity and manufacturing exports surged 11.2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, as petroleum exports returned to pre-harvey levels. crude oil exports continued to hit record highs, rising 15.8 percent amid higher oil prices. Furthermore, the trade-weighted value of the dollar 3 fell 1.3 percent YTD, thereby increasing the attractiveness of goods and services to foreign consumers. Strong global economic growth and the falling value of the dollar will likely support upward trending export growth throughout the next two quarters. Mexico, largest trade partner, received more than a third of September exports but slowed economically in recent months. NAFTA renegotiations and the potential of a Mexican recession remained potential headwinds to -Mexico trade activity. 3 The trade-weighted value of the dollar is generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Its release typically lags the Outlook for the Economy by one month. 7
Economic Activity Gross State Product (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 15 1 5-5 -1 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 17 Note: Seasonally adjusted annualized rate. For more information, see Real GDP Growth. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 27 = 1) Business Cycle Index Leading Index (right-y-axis) 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 15 8 1 75 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 8
15. Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 1. 5.. -5. -1. -15. Austin-Round Rock Fort Worth-Arlington San Antonio Dallas-Plano-Irving Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 211 = 1) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Conference Board 9
Financial Activity 7. 6. 3-Year Mortgage Rate and 1-Year Bond Yield (Percent) Mortgage Bond 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board Housing 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 Housing Sales (Index Jan 27 = 1) Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-15 May-16 Sep-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at A&M University 1
11 1 Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator (Index Jan 27 = 1) TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index 9 8 7 6 5 4 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sources: Real Estate Center at A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 12 11 1 9 Construction Values (Index Jan 27 = 1) Total Residential Non-residential 8 7 6 5 4 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Real values are seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Dodge Analytics 11
13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Major Metros Total Construction Values (Index Jan 27 = 1) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Real values are seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Dodge Analytics Energy $/Barrel Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ($) $/million BTU 14 12 Crude Oil Natural Gas (Right Axis) 14 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters 12
(Number of rigs) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count) Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis) Number of Operating Rigs (Millions of barrels per day) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-15 May-16 Sep-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count. Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Employment 6 4 Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change) 2-2 -4-6 -8 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 13
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio -8 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 Unemployment Rate (Percent) 3 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 14
9 Major Metros Unemployment Rate (Percent) 8 7 6 5 4 3 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio 2 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at A&M University 175 14 15 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change) US 7 35-35 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications. Source: Department of Labor 15
67 66 Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent) 65 64 63 62 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 4-4 -8-12 -16-2 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 16
15 Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 May-16 Dec-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 17
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Fort Worth-Arlington San Antonio-New Braunfels Dallas-Plano-Irving Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 35 3 25 2 15 Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston The Woodlands Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels 1 5-5 -1-15 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. October 217 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
Manufacturing Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index) 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. index is adjusted -5 to be on scale with index Services Index 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Jun-7 Nov-7 Apr-8 Retail Sector (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change) Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Retail Survey Sep-8 Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 May-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Retail Sector. Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from Comptroller of Public Accounts Retail Sales (Right Axis) Year-over-Year Percent 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 2
4 3 Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index) 2 1-1 -2 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. index is adjusted -5 to be on scale with index. Prices 6 5 CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Houston 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 21
16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Food and Beverages Transportation Oct-13 Feb-14 Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Housing Medical Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Trade 35 Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau 22
3 2 1 Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change) -1-2 -3 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau Crude Oil Exports (Index Dec 215 = 1) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Note: Inflation adjusted and detrended with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Crude Oil Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau Dec-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 23
12 115 Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index Jan 27 = 1) 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-15 May-16 Sep-17 Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 Exports by Country (Percent) 9 8 7 6 5 4 Netherlands 3 Mexico China 2 Canada 1 Brazil ROW 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Note: For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau 24
MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL A&M University 2115 TAMU College Station, TX 77843-2115 http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-231 DIRECTOR GARY W. MALER ADVISORY COMMITTEE DOUG ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN Austin MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca ALVIN COLLINS Andrews JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth BESA MARTIN Boerne TED NELSON Houston C. CLARK WELDER San Antonio BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple i