HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA January 2013 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
Composition of distressed sales by geography 60% Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions November 2012 Percent of Total Transactions 40% 20% 0% 29% 29% 26% 9% 12% 11% 9% 6% 9% 11% 10% 12% 10% 12% 13% 15% 11% 5% 8% 7% 11% 8% 8% 13% 12% 5% 6% 11% 7% 7% Short Sale Move-In Ready REO Damaged REO Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties Who Is Buying Properties? November 2012 100% 19% 29% 12% Percent of Property Type 75% 50% 25% 61% 21% 46% 38% 33% 55% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 35% 32% 18% 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
Financing for home purchases 100% Financing for Homebuyers November 2012 Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 75% 50% 25% 22% 30% 6% 5% 15% 22% 18% 48% 17% 7% 2% 74% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash 25% 0% Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors 9% Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012
California Trends
California s unemployment rate declining but still well above national average 14 12 California Unemployment Rate (%) 10 8 6 4 United States 2 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
California house prices appear to be stabilizing 250 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 170 California United States 130 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Northern California house prices are stabilizing 250 FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100) FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 170 Sacramento Oakland San Francisco 130 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Housing markets in the Central Valley saw greatest drops; Merced, Stockton at 2000 values 270 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly) 240 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 180 150 Fresno 120 Stockton Merced 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) Visalia
Southern California MSA house prices also stabilizing 290 FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly) 250 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 170 Los Angeles Ventura San Diego 130 Inland Empire 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Number of delinquencies and properties in foreclosure remain steady 800,000 600,000 Number of Mortgages 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
California s consumer debt delinquency rate trending down along with U.S. 12% Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate 10% California 8% U.S. 6% 4% 2% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
Rents up as vacancy rate falls in LA $1,500 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Los Angeles Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 6% $1,440 Asking Rent $1,380 3% Vacancy Rate $1,320 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted
Rents up, vacancies down in Inland Empire $1,080 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Bernardino/Riverside Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 9% 6% Asking Rent $1,040 3% Vacancy Rate $1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category. 0%
Steep rise in rents in San Francisco $2,200 $2,100 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Francisco Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 6% $2,000 Asking Rent $1,900 $1,800 3% Vacancy Rate $1,700 $1,600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category. 0%
Fresno rents up, vacancies down $860 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Fresno Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 8% $830 Asking Rent $800 4% Vacancy Rate $770 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Sacramento rents up, vacancies down $975 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Sacramento Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 9% $950 6% Asking Rent $925 3% Vacancy Rate $900 $875 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
State & Local Data Maps
California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
California Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Northern California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Northern California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Sacramento Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Sacramento Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Southern California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Southern California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Inland Empire Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Inland Empire Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
San Diego Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
San Diego Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events http://www.frbsf.org/community/