DELIVERING IN CHALLENGING TIMES Maersk Oil Maersk Group Capital Markets Day, 9 September 2015
page 2 LEGAL NOTICE This presentation contains certain forward looking statements (all statements that are not entirely based on historical facts, among others expectations to future financial performance, developments, resources growth and production levels). Those forward looking statements reflect current views on future events and are by their nature subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. We consider such forward looking statements reasonable based on the information available to us at this time, but the actual results etc. may differ materially from our expectations because of external factors as well as changes to APMM s goals and strategy. Thus, no undue reliance should be placed on such statements. Neither APMM, nor any other person, shall assume responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the forward looking statements and do not undertake any obligation to update such statements except as required by law. This Legal Notice shall be governed by Danish Law. Any dispute arising out of or in relation to this Legal Notice which can not be solved amicably shall be decided by the Danish Courts.
page 3 TODAY S SPEAKERS Jakob Thomasen Chief Executive Officer Graham Talbot Chief Financial Officer Gretchen H. Watkins Chief Operating Officer
page 4 DELIVERING RESULTS Top quartile performance and profitable growth 306,000 boepd 300 mmboe USD 1.7 billion Production growth Reserves additions from sanctioned major projects Johan Sverdrup and Culzean Capex and Opex reductions realised in response to market changes
page 5 A year of progress Strong operational performance improvements First oil on time and on budget from Jack (US), Golden Eagle (UK) and Tyra SE (DK) Sanctioned Culzean (UK) and Johan Sverdrup (NO) Major cost savings realised and more to come Started Qatar bid preparations Offshore employee, Danish North Sea
page 6 AGENDA OUR RESPONSE TO THE MARKET CHANGES OPTIMISING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OPERATIONS EXCELLENCE AND PROJECT DELIVERY NAVIGATING TURBULENT WATERS
The oil price, looking ahead page 7 The oil price will likely stay at current levels in the short term Million barrels per day 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Brent price (USD/barrel) Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 but we expect the oil price to go higher as the supply-demand gap normalises Today s oil price is challenged by market fundamentals China s oil demand growth OPEC response The strength of US unconventionals Price recovery is expected in the longer term, but in the short to medium term, the industry must adjust to a new oil price reality Worldwide supply Worldwide demand Brent price Source: EIA, August 2015
page 8 Industry response Major project cancellations and deferrals Cost cutting and workforce reductions Impairments Renegotiation of contracts and project costs
... and what it means to Maersk Oil page 9 How we are different Proactive strategy effort in 2014 prepared us for a lower oil price Advantage of project sanction timing for our major projects Robust core portfolio Limited exposure to high-cost, high-risk assets Part of APMM Group, financially strong Maersk Oil response On target to reach 10% opex reduction end of 2015 with a goal of 20% by end of 2016 USD 1.3 billion capital expenditure reductions in 2015 33% unit operating cost reduction since 2014 Workforce reductions; 600 positions end of Q2 Active portfolio management Focus shift from organic to inorganic growth
Strategic focus remains, adjusting to market conditions page 10 SHORT-TERM DELIVERY Operations Excellence MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH Project Delivery LONG-TERM GROWTH Exploration / Inorganic Growth COST AND CAPITAL DISCIPLINE - OUR RIGHT TO GROW
page 11 Delivering results in turbulent waters Production growth New cost initiatives will deliver a sustainable and competitive cost base Robust portfolio dominated by relatively cost advantaged barrels several world class projects maturing Well positioned for pursuing countercyclical inorganic growth opportunities The Dan E field, Danish North Sea
page 12 OPTIMISING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE The El Merk facility, Algeria Graham Talbot Chief Financial Officer
page 13 FINANCIAL AMBITION Adjusting to the new environment Continued focus on cost management; USD 1.7 billion Capex and Opex reductions realised 10% ROIC over the cycle Capital expenditure within investment range of USD 2-4 billion annually A maturing resource base
Sustaining financial performance Underlying segment result after tax (USD million) page 14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2,121 2,364 Onshore drilling, Kurdistan Region of Iraq 500 0 Impairments & gains/losses Oil price (USD/bbl) 1,083 1,035 424 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015-9 80-37 -1,896-79 111 112 109 99 58
Entitlement production growth continues 2015 guidance increased from 265,000 boepd to 285,000 boepd page 15 Maersk Oil entitlement production ( 000 bpd) Peer production growth (Percentage change Q2-2014 to Q2-2015) 400 30% 350 25% 300 250 200 150 100 50 333 257 235 251 ~285 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 30% 23% 19% 4% 3% 2% 0-4% -6% -11% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E -15% Maersk Oil Hess BG Group Marathon Noble Talisman Anadarko Murphy Apache Occidental Source: Peer group data based on Evaluate Energy information
Maintaining ROIC >10% over the cycle Outcompeting peers in a tough market page 16 Maersk Oil ROIC (excl. impairments) (%) Peer Group ROIC (incl. impairments) (%, 3 year avg. 2012-2014) 40% 15.0% 35% 30% 10.0% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 37% 36% 16% 18% 15% 5.0% 0.0% 12.2% 11.5% 10.1% 9.0% 8.6% 8.3% 4.6% 1.8% -0.7% -4.8% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015-5.0% Maersk Oil Hess Corp Murphy Noble Marathon Occidental BG Group Anadarko Apache Talisman Source: Peer group data based on Evaluate Energy information
Capital discipline Investing through the cycle page 17 Development Capex 1) (USD million) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 3,788 1,959 1,800 2,198 996 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015 2-4 billion /year Reducing development Capex towards USD 2-4 billion/year, not including inorganic growth Significant Capex reductions realised in 2014/15 Continuously optimising capital expenditure by active portfolio management and contract re-negotiations Chissonga optimisation ongoing Investing through the cycle Johan Sverdrup (NO) and Culzean (UK) 1) Including acquisitions
page 18 Check workforce % ok Reducing our costs Focus on cost leadership and building a sustainable cost base On track to reach 10% Opex savings end of 2015 and 20% end of 2016 Global workforce reduced by 600 positions end of Q2 2015 Progress on track and well positioned to manage a period of turbulence Portfolio Management Procurement and Supply Chain Organisational and Process Efficiency Cost Focus and Performance Management
Adjusting to new market conditions page 19 Sound financial results in a challenging market Continued investment through the cycle Material increase in both production and reserves Immediate actions taken in response to market conditions to maintain a sustainable cost base Major cost reductions achieved and more to come, creating a solid foundation for growth Employee at the Dunga field, Kazakhstan
page 20 OPERATIONS EXCELLENCE AND PROJECT DELIVERY Offshore workers, Danish North Sea Gretchen H. Watkins Chief Operating Officer
Reliable and predictable operations performance page 21 SHORT-TERM DELIVERY Operations Excellence MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH Project Delivery 66% 30% 33% 3 2 22% fewer safety incidents compared to 2009 production growth compared to Q2-2014 reduction of Opex per produced barrel major projects delivered major projects sanctioned Capex reduction on Culzean (UK)
Our global portfolio page 22 Greenland United Kingdom Norway Denmark Kazakhstan USA Algeria Kurdistan Region of Iraq Qatar Active in 11 countries Exploration in 7 Development projects in 9 Operated production in 4 Non-operated in 4 Brazil Angola
A safer Maersk Oil page 23 Maersk Oil safety performance Lost Time Injury Frequency (LTIF) per million working hours Process Safety Comprehensive programme to manage process safety 2.5-66% 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 15
Production growth continues page 24 Maersk Oil entitlement production ( 000 bpd) 340 320 300 280 +30% Entitlement production continues to build Operations Excellence is reducing unplanned downtime and increasing production More planned shutdowns in 2015 have been completed on time than ever before 260 240 220 200 239 226 229 247 256 235 238 275 304 306 285 Full year production 2015 is expected to increase 14% over last year Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 2015 E
Operations Excellence in mature fields page 25 Adding low cost barrels Production Example: GP3 in UK Central North Sea Production 10% Operations Excellence Infill wells Infill wells Operations Excellence 85% production increase 30,500 bpd Base production 16,500 bpd 2014 2015 2016 May 2014 May 2015 Infill wells Additional production from Operations Excellence
Taking action to reduce operating costs Development in Opex per barrel USD/bbl 25-33% Contract renegotiation Prioritising high value work page 26 20 15 10 5 0 23 Jul-14 21 Aug-14 19 20 Sep-14 Oct-14 17 16 16 16 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 14 15 Mar-15 Apr-15 16 17 May-15 Jun-15 15 Jul-15 Standardisation and simplification Ongoing portfolio management Note: Opex per barrel is calculated as Opex over equity production, where average cost per barrel has been adjusted to reflect Qatar net share of Opex relative to entitlement production
Delivering major capital projects page 27 Golden Eagle, United Kingdom First oil: Q4-2014 Plateau entitlement production (boepd): 20,000 Jack, USA First oil: Q4-2014 Plateau entitlement production (boepd): 8,000 Tyra Southeast, Denmark First oil: Q1-2015 Plateau entitlement production (boepd): 4,000 Chissonga, Angola Project deferred while under evaluation, investigating potential to improve overall economics and reduce capital costs. Johan Sverdrup, Norway Plan for Development and Operation for Phase 1 received 21 August 2015. First oil planned for late-2019. Culzean, United Kingdom Sanctioned 31 August 2015. First gas is planned for 2019.
Reliable and predictable operations performance page 28 SHORT-TERM DELIVERY Operations Excellence MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH Project Delivery 66% 30% 33% 3 2 22% fewer safety incidents compared to 2009 production growth compared to Q2-2014 reduction of Opex per produced barrel major projects delivered major projects sanctioned Capex reduction on Culzean (UK)
page 29 NAVIGATING TURBULENT WATERS The Global Producer 3 FPSO in the UK North Sea Jakob Thomasen Chief Executive Officer
page 30 OUR RESPONSE TO THE MARKET CHANGES OPTIMISING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OPERATIONS EXCELLENCE AND PROJECT DELIVERY NAVIGATING TURBULENT WATERS Continued focus on cost management Capex decreased to USD 2-4 billion annually Active portfolio management Sound financial results in a turbulent market New cost initiatives will deliver a sustainable and competitive cost base Major cost reductions achieved and more to come 66% fewer safety incidents 30% production growth 33% reduction of Opex per produced barrel 3 major projects delivered 2 major projects sanctioned Proactive strategy effort in 2014 prepared us for a lower oil price Material increase in both production and reserves Maersk Oil is well-positioned for inorganic growth
Long-term profitable growth page 31 Profitable growth Maersk Oil will grow to ensure a profitable future Focus is on inorganic growth in 2015/16 and investing in exploration acreage to deliver sustained exploration performance by 2016/17 Longer term, exploration is considered a critical element for reserves replacement To deliver both long and short term growth Maersk Oil must expand within our core and beyond Selecting growth opportunities Balanced portfolio and cost curve Geographic fit, risk profile Production profile & timing Leveraging our capabilities
page 32 Near-term strategic actions 2015/2016 New cost initiatives to build the basis for growth, 20% Opex savings by end of 2016 Project delivery Operational efficiency to grow production Deliver material value-adding inorganic growth opportunities Employees offshore, Danish North Sea
page 33 DELIVERING RESULTS Top quartile performance and profitable growth 306,000 boepd 300 mmboe USD 1.7 billion Production growth Reserves additions from sanctioned major projects Johan Sverdrup and Culzean Capex and Opex reductions realised in response to market changes
Thank you page 34