Service Exports as a New Driver of Israeli Growth July, 2006 Israel's external accounts are one of the most stable and reassuring components in the country's economic picture. There is a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments, there is a lack of net external debt (in fact there is large surplus of FX assets over liabilities), and the country has a high level of foreign currency reserves. One of the components that contributed to an overall surplus in Israel's balance of payments last year was the surplus in the services account. The services account includes Israel's trade vis-à-vis other countries in various areas such as tourist services, international shipping (by land, sea, and air), insurance services, and a group of "other services" that includes computer services, R&D, various professional services, and more. Israel's exports of services Billions of US$, 2005 data Exports Imports Deficit(-) / Surplus(+) Tourist services 2.9 2.9 0.0 Transportation (cargo) services 3.7 4.7-1.0 Insurance services 0.0 0.4-0.4 Other services: computer services, software, R&D, professional services 11.2 5.4 5.8 Total exports of services 17.8 13.7 4.1 The first major component in the services account is the export of tourist services from Israel that amounted to US$2.9bn in 2005. In the 2004-2005 period the export of tourist services increased by an average annual rate of 18%. This rapid expansion reflects the improvement in the security situation in the country. The peak levels of incoming tourism were recorded back in 2000, which was a unique year for tourism due to the arrival of the Pope who came to Israel within the framework of the Millennium celebrations. This year has set a target for the recovery of the tourism sector and its exports of services. The Economics Sector, Chief Economist Dr. Gil Bufman, P.O.Box 2, Tel Aviv 61000 Ph: 972-3-514-8737, Fax: 972-3-5147375, e-mail: Gilbu@bll.co.il
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Exports of tourist services 1980 1982 1984 Millions of US$ 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2006: estimate The positive trend in incoming tourism to Israel continued in the beginning of 2006, as seen in the number of tourists arriving to Israel, the length of stay, and also the average daily expenditure of tourists in Israel. The serious flare-up of violence in mid July 2006, which included an indiscriminant barrage of missiles and rockets launched by Hezbollah on the northern cities of Israel, caught the tourism sector in the midst of expansion and greatly exposed to the impact of the security situation. Previous flare-ups on the northern border, which did not include such a massive bombardment of towns in northern Israel, had substantially negative economic consequences for the tourism sector. Following previous episodes, foreign tourists refrained from coming to Israel for months after the operations ended. Accordingly, even under the assumption that the deterioration of the security situation will be limited, the second half of 2006 is likely to show a substantial drop in the number of incoming tourists and exports of tourist services. Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind that tourism is a relatively small part of the Israeli economy, which represents only 2-3% of GDP. % of GDP 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% Exports of tourist services as a percentage of GDP 4.0% 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006: estimate 2
The second major component in the services account is the export of transportation services from Israel that amounted to US$3.7bn in 2005. In the 2004-2005 period the export of transportation services increased by an average annual rate of 15%. The main component included in transportation services is the shipment of cargo between foreign ports, which amounted to US$2.2bn in 2005. This activity includes the shipment of cargo around the world using Israeli ships and airplanes. The expansion in this activity reflects the economic growth around the world, the increase in the price of sea and transport, and possibly also a continued increase of Israeli market share. The surplus in Israel's service account (the difference between services exports and service imports) amounted to US$3.8bn in 2005. While the tourism, transportation and insurance items posted an aggregate deficit, there was a large surplus of US$5.8bn in the area of "other services", which includes, as already mentioned, computer services, software, R&D, and more. This surplus is the result of US$11.2bn worth of exports, offset by imports of US$5.4bn. A deeper look at the "other services" component of export from Israel shows a number of notable main sub-components. The current account deficit(-)/surplus(+) as a % of GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% -0.4% -1.0% -1.2% -1.3% -3.0% -3.6% -5.6% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(*) 2007(*) 2006-2007 - forecast The first sub-component is that of computer services, including software. Export of this type amounted to more than US$3bn in 2005. During the 2004-2005 period, the export of computer services grew at a double digit rate. We point out at this time that the success of Israel's software industry is notable as well in other economic indicators, and not just in export. The second notable sub-component is the export of services by Israel's industrial sector, for example consulting to other companies around the world. This activity amounted to close to US$2bn in 2005. The third sub-component is the export of R&D services, in which many overseas companies turn to Israeli companies to perform R&D activity on the basis of scientific and technological know-how that has developed and exists in Israel. In 2005 the export of R&D services amounted to about US$1.5bn, and in the 2003-2005 period export of this type increased at an average annual dollar rate of more than 20%. The remaining subcomponents included under the banner of "other services", which amounted to about US$4bn in 2005, include services in various professional areas such as accounting, law, security, civil engineering, culture, entertainment, sports, and more. 3
The rapid development of the high-tech sector in Israel, including as well the export of hightech services, did not occur by chance. Instead, it has been the result of a heavy investment of resources, primarily in the realm of skilled human resources, across the span of many years. In this regard, it is important to point out that Israel is the world leader in R&D spending as a percentage of GDP, and also in terms of R&D expenditure per capita. A clear majority of Israel's R&D investment is channeled towards the information technology and communications sector, which is heavily represented in Israel's service exports. Another aspect that has supported Israel's technology sector is related to the level of education of the country's workforce, which is high relative to that of many other developed countries. ISRAEL Sweden Finland Japan Switzerland Germany Korea Denmark United States France OECD Netherlands United Kingdom Canada Norway Australia Ireland Portugal Greece Civilian R&D as a percentage of GDP 0 1 2 3 4 5 % of GDP R&D in ICT manufacturing as share of R&D in manufacturing sector ISRAEL Finland Ireland Korea Canada United States Netherlands Japan Sweden France Italy Denmark Norway Belgium Australia Germany United Kingdom Spain Poland 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % The export of services, and in particular high-tech services, is expected to continue to lead Israeli exports in the coming years. This area of activity is expected to grow at a rate faster than the average, while at the same time attracting overseas investments. As these trends 4
come to fruition, they will have a positive impact on the Israeli capital market, as well as on the labor market. In addition, a continued rapid expansion of services exports is expected to support the on-going increase in the proportion of the services sector in the overall economy. This trend has been notable for a long period now, and consequently the proportion of trade and services activity of the business sector has increased from 46.7% in 1995 to 58.3% in 2005. Compared to other developed countries the proportion of the trade and services sectors in Israel's economy is still relatively low. Parallel to the rise in the proportion of trade and services activities in Israel's business sector, there has been a decline in the proportion of industrial activity, from 27.1% in 1995 to 21.2% in 2005. Gil Bufman, Chief Economist The data, information, opinions and forecasts published in this publication (the Information ) are furnished as a service to the readers and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Bank. The above should not be seen as a recommendation and should not replace the independent discretion of the reader, nor should it be considered an offer or invitation to receive offers or advice whether in general or in consideration of the particular data and requirements of the reader to purchase and /or to effect investments and/or operations or transactions of any kind. The Information may contain errors and is subject to changes in the market and to other changes. Likewise, significant discrepancies may arise between the forecasts contained in this booklet and actual results. The Bank does not undertake to provide the readers with notice, in advance or in retrospect, of any of the aforementioned changes by any means whatsoever. The Bank and/or its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates and/or the parties controlling and/or parties having an interest in any of them may, from time to time, have an interest in the information represented in the publication, including in the financial assets represented therein. 5