PRECIOUS METALS OUTLOOK DECEMBER 217
Copyright CPM Group LLC 217. These reports are produced by CPM Group for distribution by Monex Deposit Company. The rights to distribution, reproduction, and redistribution rights are ceded to Monex Deposit Company by CPM Group for these reports. These reports are not for reproduction or retransmission without written consent of Monex Deposit Company. The intellectual content and property of these reports remain the property of CPM Group, and they are not for reproduction or retransmission without written consent of CPM Group. The views expressed within are solely those of CPM Group. Such information has not been verified, nor does CPM make any representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. While every effort has been made to ensure that the accuracy of the material contained in the reports is correct, CPM Group cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. CPM Group is not soliciting any action based on it. Information contained here should not be relied on as specific investment or market timing advice. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have long or short positions in some of the markets mentioned here.
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 1 Gold prices are expected to be well-supported above $1,22 over the course of December, despite the possibility of facing some headwinds during the month as markets try to get clarity on future U.S. monetary and tax policy. Prices are forecast to head higher during the first couple of months during 218 as seasonal factors contribute to higher prices especially in January ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, which will occur in the middle of February. Prices could rise toward $1,32 during these two months. Heading into 218 gold prices should be expected to remain at elevated levels but not expected to rise sharply. Healthy global economic growth, low inflation, and the possibility of a corporate America friendly tax code should help to keep investors focused on stock markets, at least in the near term. These factors could weigh on gold prices. That said, there are several risks to present global economic conditions, ranging from heightened political risks, massive increases in global debt (see front section of this report), possible medium and long term negative impact of the reformed U.S. tax code (an increase in the deficit), and the possibility that the Fed tightens monetary policy more than necessary. These risks are expected to prevent gold prices from declining sharply. Gold prices are forecast to average $1,29 on an annual basis, up 2.4% from the projected 217 annual average price. Gold prices are expected to perform best during the first and last quarters of 218. Among the major global economies, the United States seems most vulnerable to an economic downturn in the medium term. It is CPM Group s expectation that the U.S. could head into a short and shallow recession during the second half of 218 or in 219. The U.S. economic Gold Prices: 1 December 21 to 7 December 217 Gold Three-Month Gold Price Projection $/Oz 14 14 13 13 12 12 Acutal 1,282 1,3 1,27 1,22 Projected 1,32 1,32 1,26 1 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17 J-18 F-18 recovery is now long in the tooth, and while U.S. monetary policy is very loose it has been tightened the most among the major central banks. The timing and depth of the recession will to a large extent depend on the degree to which monetary policy is further tightened. Policy is expected to be kept relatively loose, however, if policy is tightened more than what U.S. wage growth and inflation can sustain the recession could come sooner rather than later. There is a higher possibility of an economic slowdown in the United States during 219 than in 218, as any negative impact political or economic typically has an effect on the economy with a lag. Based on this expectation, gold prices are forecast to rise more strongly in 219 than in 218, averaging $1,379 during the year, up 6.9% from 218. Timing recessions and financial crisis is more art than science, although there are a number of economic and econometric tools that help time issues visible on the horizon. $ /Oz 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1, 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan- Jan-16 Jan-17 CPM Group notes that investment demand for gold already is at historically high levels, although down from the levels that took gold prices to record levels in 28-212. CPM does not see current levels of investment demand and prices as peaks, however. Rather, they are viewed as new basis from which both investment demand and prices will rise further the next time the economic and political environment inspires investors to rush even more dramatically back to gold. CPM Group has been writing for a few years now that it considered the gold and silver markets to have reached cyclical bottoms in prices in late 2 or early 216, and that these markets were in the early stages of what should be expected to be multi-year bull markets. Further, CPM
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 2 has stated several times that it expected gold and silver prices to rise sharply at some point over the next three to 1 years, with the potential for gold to reach record levels surpassing those seen in 211 and 212. Triggers CPM Group s long-term price projections are predicated on a mix of trends in each commodity s fundamentals with a macro-economic view of the economic, financial, and political environment that affects and determines those trends in supply, demand, investment demand, inventories, and other market segments. Gold We cannot foresee the specific mix of events that leads to a reversal of the present focus on stocks and relatively stable although high levels of investment demand for gold and silver. However, we are pretty sure that much of the bases for the inevitable spike in investment demand and prices for gold and silver will rest in the debt market. The debt markets public, private, corporate, and personal, nationally and globally have not improved since the Global Financial Crisis. They have gotten more problematic. Where in the wide world of debt the cracks first appear is a key question, one the answer to which no one knows. As discussed below, most likely the cracks will appear in smaller, less protected financial arenas. Our present view of the global economy and consequently commodities markets and prices has imbedded in it the view that there could be a short, shallow recession perhaps limited to the United States in 218 or 219, followed by an anemic recovery in economic activity for a few years, with a much more significant global financial crisis and economic downturn possibly emerging around 222 224. As a result of these economic projections, our expectations are that gold and silver prices could rise sharply at some point in the coming decade, when a number of economic, financial, and political constraints combine to lead investors to move more forcefully into these precious metals. What Will Happen Given such strong projections, it behooves CPM to explain what we think may cause the next period of increased, out-sized investor buying of gold and silver. Historians write about the causes and occasions for events to unfold. There can be many causes, but some event or set of events serve as the occasion that triggers the larger event to occur. This paper focuses on the potential catalysts for the next round of sharply increased investment demand and prices. It seems most likely that it will be some combination of financial and economic events. There may be one development that serves as the trigger or occasion of the change, but it is likely to be the culmination of many financial and economic trends that lead up to both that causative event s occurrence and the subsequent effects across markets: Gold, silver, stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. There are nonetheless certain hot spots in financial markets that are likely to participate in the next spasm of financial market credit constraints that consequently would lead to a major round of economic problems and a rush to gold and silver. These include the following. They may be divided into two subsets. The first are the longer term, structural problems facing the world. The second are the smaller problems, which actually are more likely to join in some combination to serve as the occasion or trigger for the next round of financial panic. Structural Issues Persistent government deficits, Ever expanding sovereign debt, The squeezing out of debt markets of more productive private sector borrowing by this sovereign debt, Probable negative consequences from the Fed s policies of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, which will constrain private sector borrowing further, Mounting private sector debt, Long-term unemployment and labor market surpluses, Inability to grow consumer demand sufficient to keep pace with production of consumer goods and services, The mismatch between pension fund returns since 28 and their long-term obligations, which are leading to pension funds taking greater risks in order to try to regain some capital. And more
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 3 Possible Occasions Issues such as the hidden illiquidity inherent in the growing open interest of exchange traded products relative to the underlying assets market sizes, The disappearance of market makers, specialists, and other braking mechanisms from global financial markets, Program trading, And the inevitable unforeseen events. It may seem odd to write about the next financial crisis at this time. In late 217 volatility in the stock market, bond market, gold, silver, oil, currencies, and other markets are at or close to historical lows. In the financial markets, all seems unnaturally calm. Gold Net Long Non-Commercial Positions and Gold Prices Weekly Data, through 28 Nov 217 $/Ounce 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Net Long Positions Gold Price Apr-9 Apr-99 Apr-3 Apr-7 Apr-11 Apr- Million Ounces 4 3 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2 It is natural in fact to worry at times like the present especially. The reality is that financial markets are grossly under-pricing risk, just as they did in the periods of 1998 2 and then 24 26. At some point financial market volatility is likely to increase sharply, dramatically, and suddenly. That would be translated into a very sharp drop in stock prices, a sharp drop in bond prices, and a sharp rise in gold and silver prices. We are not writing about a % - 2% decline in stocks. In 21 and the 28 29, the S&P was virtually cut in half, while some other market indices such as Nasdaq declined much more. Other Stress Points The occasions will occur somewhere else. To figure out what combination of such factors may serve as a collective trigger, one needs to consider carefully the secondary list of trends listed above, as well as to struggle with discerning other trends not so readily apparent. The Fed s policies of raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet in order to prepare for the next recession and financial crisis, will play an important role in the coming drama. CPM has written it feels these policies are misguided for several years now. The very acts of Fed tightening could well precipitate or contribute heavily to the emergence of the next recession and financial crisis. Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercial Positions Comex Gold Futures & Options.Weekly,through 28 Nov 217 Million Oz. 4 4 Net Fund Position in Comex 3 3 2 2 1 - -1 - Short -2 Million Oz. 4 4 Long 3 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2 Jan-96 Jan- Jan-4 Jan-8 Jan-12 Jan-16 Monthly Mint Gold Coin Sales to Dealers Through Nov 217 Thou Oz. 3 3 2 2 Thou Oz. 3 3 2 2 So, the Fed s policies are likely to be a factor. They most likely will not be the trigger, however, since they are so obvious and important that almost the entire world s financial sector is focused mightily on these. 1 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 The occasion is more likely to appear in an overlooked corner of financial markets, just as the collateralized debt obligations built on shoddy U.S. mortgage industry practices served as the occasion in 27 a part of financial markets that many participants were unaware even existed until it became a problem. In searching for overlooked corners of financial markets that have unsustainable structures, the departure of market makers, the rise of electronic, mechanical trading, and the mismatch in liquidity between ETFs and the underlying asset markets all pop to the front of consciousness. Indeed, the mismatch between ETF open interest and the volume of underlying assets is very similar to that which existed, and exists again, in the U.S. mortgage and housing market. Back in the period before 27 there were economists and regulators who expressed concern over the enormous volume of CDO assets relative to the size of the underlying asset markets. Bankers continued deprecated such concerns, saying that such derivative volumes could be netted out, reducing the size of the imbalance to manageable ratios. The counter argument that such netting only worked if it was simultaneously was written off in the bankers testimonies as being an issue that only nonpractitioners found worrisome. In the final event, it was exactly the fact that netting is not simultaneous that started the GFC. Bad government responses, primarily by the U.S. Treasury, compounded that problem. Gold Page 4 All of this points to the idea that the next financial crisis and recession will begin in some esoteric, overlooked corner of the global debt market, or maybe several such corners. ETFs, taking an ever-growing proportion of investor funds, is a good candidate, as is the nature of electronic financial markets. The growing imbalance between the size of the ETF derivatives markets open interest or outstanding obligations, on the one hand, and the sharply less liquid markets for many of the underlying assets, poses enormous risks for the overall financial market. Just as the liquidity and credit crunch in the CDO market led to a freezing of global credit that caused a plunge in all asset values, a seemingly minor liquidity event in a series of ETF derivatives could trigger a similar global financial crisis in the future. Net long Comex gold positions held by institutional investors rose over the course of November. This increase in net long positions occurred at a time when prices stabilized at lower level from the highs in September. This was another sign that investors see limited downside from present levels and used the softness in gold prices as a buying opportunity. Net long positions reached 23. million ounces at the end of November, driven higher by a combination of an increase in gross long positions and a decline in gross short positions. Gross long position were at 29. million ounces up from 26.9 million ounces at the end of October, while gross short positions were down to.98 million ounces at the end of November from 7.3 million ounces at the end of October. While gross longs rose back to the levels seen in September 217, when price peaked for the year, gross short positions were at their lowest level since September 216. Annual Reported Central Bank Changes in Gold Holdings 217 Through Oct. 3 3 2 2 1 - -1 - -2-2 -3 M Million Oz. 3 Net Additions/Reductions 3 Gross Additions 2 2 1 - -1 - -2 Gross Reductions -2-3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Million Oz. Total open interest in Comex gold declined over the course of November to 47.4 million ounces at the end of the month, down from 3.2 million ounces at the end of October. The decline in total open interest suggests that market participants closed out of the nearby active December Comex contract and did not roll their positions into the forward active contracts. Central banks continued to add gold to their holdings on a net basis during October. Central banks increased their holdings by 1.37 million ounces during the month, with Russia, Turkey, and Jordan making the largest additions. During the first 1 months of the year central banks have added 9.4 million ounces of gold to their holdings on a net basis. Outside of Russia, which has been on a mission to replenish its gold reserves, Turkey has been adding to its holdings in a meaningful way this year, adding around two million ounces or a fifth of the gross additions in 217, within a span of six months.
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page Silver prices are forecast to remain weak through the end of this year. An overall positive sentiment toward the global economy is expected to weigh on silver investment demand. Prices are not expected to slip below $, however. Prices are forecast to rise during the first two months of 218, driven higher by seasonal demand. On the upside, silver prices are expected to face initial resistance at $17.4. If this level is broken, prices could rise toward $18.. Silver prices moved mostly between $16.67 and $17.39 during November, breaking out on the downside during the last two days of the month. Prices slipped to an intraday low of $16.28 on 3 November and settled at $16.38 on that day. While silver prices moved in a narrow band during November they did so in a choppy fashion, which pushed monthly price volatility to 23.3%, the highest level since July 217. Silver prices could soften further or remain at low levels before they rise at the start of next year. Investor sentiment toward the global economy is positive at this time which is expected to weigh on safe haven demand and silver prices in the medium term. Seasonal strength in demand at the start of the calendar year is expected to offset some of the softness in prices resulting from a positive investor sentiment toward risk assets. Prices could fall back during the middle of the year, however, with prices recovering only in the fourth quarter of next year. Silver prices are forecast to average $17.1 on an Silver 2 19 18 17 16 Three-Month Silver Price Projection Silver Prices and Open Interest Daily, Prices thourgh 6 Dec. 217 OI thourgh Dec. 217 $/Ounces 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 Total Open Interest 16.98 17. 16.7 Prices (Left Scale) 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Projected 18. 17.4.. Actual J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17 J-18 F-18 Million Ounces 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 Silver Price Volatility Monthly Data, Through 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% Nov. 217 Nov '17 23.3% Oct '17 13.3% Nov '16 34.1% % 76 8 84 88 92 96 4 8 12 16 Comex Silver Inventories & Total Open Interest Daily, OI Through Dec. 217 Stocks Through 6 Dec. 217 Mln Ozs 1,2 1, Total Open Interest 8 6 4 Registered Stocks 2 Eligible Stocks 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Mln Ozs 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 6 annual average basis during 218, essentially flat from the forecast annual average for 217. The global economy is faced with several political as well as economic risks and these risks are expected to be supportive of silver prices in the medium term, however, they are unlikely to push silver prices significantly higher, instead they are expected to prevent prices from declining sharply from present levels. The potential for a U.S. economic recession in 219 should be supportive of silver prices during that year, with prices forecast to rise to $19.33 on an annual average basis, up 13% from 218 levels. The gold/silver ratio has risen to 77 in November 217, which is well above its long-term average of 6. This suggests that silver is underpriced relative to gold and that prices could rise more sharply when prices begin to rise. Net long positions held by institutional investors rose during the first half of November and declined during the second half. Net long positions reached 341 million ounces on 14 November, which was the highest level of net long positions since the middle of September 217, when silver prices reached near their highs for this year. Net long positions ended the month at 29 million ounces, down from 29 million ounces at the end of October. The decline in net long positions during November was entirely the result of a decline in gross long positions. The positions declined to 448.7 million ounces at the end of November, down from 471.6 million ounces at the end of October and were at the lowest level since the middle of July 217. Gross short positions, meanwhile, also declined resulting in a net positive effect. These positions had slipped to 8. million ounces down from 176. million ounces at the end of October. Silver Non-Commercial Gross Long and Short Silver Positions Comex Futures & Options. Weekly Data, Through28 Nov. 217 Mln Ozs Mln Ozs 7 7 Long 6 6 4 Net Fund Position in Comex 4 3 3 2 2 - - - - -2-2 -3-3 Short -4-4 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan- Jul- Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Non-Commercial Gross Long and Short Silver Positions Comex Futures & Options. Weekly Data, Through 28 Nov. 217 Mln Ozs Mln Ozs 7 6 6 Long 4 Net Fund Position in Comex 4 3 3 2 2 - - - - -2-2 Short -3-3 -4-4 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Disaggregated Non-Commercial Silver Positions Comex Futures and Options. Weekly Data, Through 28 Nov. 217 Mln Ozs 7 6 4 3 2 - - -2-3 -4 Short Other Traders Money Managers Net Position Long 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Mln Ozs 7 6 4 3 2 - - -2-3 -4
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 7 Silver Monthly U.S. Eagle Silver Coin Sales by the U.S. Mint Month 2 216 217 January,3,,94,,127, Fe bruary 3,22, 4,782, 1,2, March 3,19, 4,16, 1,6, April 2,81, 4,72, 83, May 2,23, 4,498, 2,4, June 4,84, 2,837, 986, July,29, 1,37, 2,32, August 4,93, 1,28, 1,2, September 3,84, 1,67, 32, October 3,788, 3,82, 1,4, November 4,824, 3,61, 38, December 2,333, 24, Total YTD 44,666, 37,461, 17,323, % Change YOY 7.% -16.1% -3.8% Annual Total 47,, 37,71, % Change YOY 6.8% -19.8% Annual U.S. Mint Silver Coin Sales to Dealers Through November 217 Million Ounces 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Monthly U.S. Mint Coins Through November 217 Mln Oz 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Dealer Premia on U.S. Mint Silver Coins Daily Data through Dec. 217 3% 3% 2% 2% % 1% % Silver American Eagle Silver 1 Oz. bar % Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan- Jan-16 Jan-17 Note: Red bar is net addition during 216 for corresponding period in 217
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 8 Chinese Market Activity Chinese net imports rose sharply in October to 6.9 million ounces, up 184% over the corresponding period in 216. This was also the highest level of net imports into the country since February 214 when it stood at 1.6 million ounces. The sharp increase in net imports into China during October 217, was the result of a sharp decline in net exports versus an increase in imports. Gross imports reached 11.6 million ounces in October, up 2.3% over the corresponding period in 216, however, gross exports declined to 4.6 million ounces during the month, down 48% from the same period in 216. Silver SHFE Silver Stocks Weekly, Through 2 November 217 Mln Oz 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug- Aug-16 Aug-17 Silver inventories held at SHFE-approved warehouses rose in November to 43.9 million ounces, up 2.87% over October. Inventories were down around 2% over the past year and are down around 31% from the beginning of this year. Combined open interest for silver futures on SHFE rose in November to.3 million ounces, up.4% from 142.6 million ounces at the end of November. During November the volume of silver futures transactions on the SHFE rose to 1.84 million ounces, up % from October. SHFE Silver Trading Volume Monthly, Through 31 October 217 Million Oz 2, 2,, 1,, M-12 F-13 N-13 A-14 M- F-16 N-16 A-17 Chinese Silver Imports and Exports Monthly, Through September 217 Moz Moz 2 2 2 2 1 1 - - -1 - -2 Gross Imports Gross Exports -1 - -2-2 Net Trade -2 F- A-6 F-8 A-9 F-11 A-12 F-14 A- F-17 SHFE Silver Open Interest Monthly, Through 3 November 217 Million Oz 2 1 May-12 May-13 May-14 May- May-16 May-17
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 9 Platinum After a mild rebound during November, Nymex platinum prices fell sharply in the first few trading days of December, with prices slipping to an intraday low of $89. on 7 December, the lowest since 11 July when the intraday low hit $891.4. This development effectively erased the gains made by platinum during November. Much of the decline in prices in early December came from a relatively stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar index climbed to 93.69 on 7 December, up.9% from 92.89 on 1 December. Investors appeared to have built some fresh short positions in platinum in early December as total open interest in Nymex platinum rose while prices declined. In the near term prices may trade in a range of $88 and $9. An absence of fresh catalysts may see many market participants stay on the sidelines. Trading activity typically slows down around Christmas and the New Year, keeping prices relatively stable. In the first quarter of next year, investor repositioning, a combination of low prices and much of the negativity in the metal s fundamentals already factored into current prices, could provide some upward momentum to prices. A positive macro background as industrial and manufacturing activities continue to gather momentum in Europe and the United States, short covering and/or fresh long building may send prices higher to $1,-$1,3 early next year. On the downside, prices could slip to $88 if concerns over declining platinum usage in automobiles re -emerge or if there is a broad-based shift in market sentiment away from precious metals in general. 1. Three-Month Platinum Price Projections $/Oz 1,1 1, 1, 9 9 8 Acutal 8 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17 J-18 F-18 Platinum Prices: 1 January 21 to 7 December 217 $ /Oz 19 18 17 16 14 13 12 1 9 8 7 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 The Gold/Platinum Price Ratio Monthly, Through November 217 937 9 93 88 Projected 1,3 9 88 1.3 1.1.9.7..3 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 1 With the exception of Brazil, most key auto markets recorded strong growth in commercial vehicle sales. The European market continued to report robust growth in the first ten months of the year, with commercial vehicle sales up 4.3% year-on-year to 2. million units. During that period, Spain continued to drive growth (+.1%), followed by France (+7.7%), Germany (+3.3%), and Italy (+1.8%). However, commercial vehicle registrations in the United Kingdom declined 3.9% year-on-year over the same period. Platinum Monthly Commercial Vehicle Sales Thous Units 2, 2, 1, 1, 213 214 2 216 217 J F M A M J J A S O N D Notes: Countries/regions included in this data series are China, US, Europe, Japan, India, and Brazil. These countries/regions account for 7% of global annual sales. Sources: national auto associations, OICA, Bloomberg Monthly Commercial Vehicles Sales Growth in China Percentage Change Fom Year Ago, Through October 217 6% 6% YTD Commercial Vehicle Sales Growth by Region Data for October 217 2% 2% 4% 4% % % 2% 2% 1% 1% % % % % -2% -2% % % -4% 11 12 13 14 16 17-4% -% China U.S. Europe Japan Brazil -% Monthly Commercial Vehicle Sales in the U.S. Data Through October 217 Thou. Units 12 1 8 6 4 2 Monthly Commercial Vehicle Sales in Europe Data Through October 217 Thou. Units 3 2 2 1 12 13 14 16 17 12 13 14 16 17
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 11 Platinum Institutional investors turned positive on Nymex platinum during November, with their net longs in the metal surging 68.3% to 1.6 million ounces on 28 November from the end of October. This was a sharp contrast to a lot of fresh short building in the previous month. Over the course of November, institutional investors built fresh long positions in platinum while covering their previously-built short positions. Their gross longs rose 9.4% to 2.7 million ounces on 28 November while their gross shorts were down 29.% to 1.1 million ounces. Total open interest in Nymex platinum rose.9% to nearly 3.9 million ounces on 3 November from the end of October. This was accompanied by a 2.% month-on-month increase in platinum prices at the end of November. Non-Commercial Gross Long and Short Platinum Positions Nymex Futures & Options. Weekly Data, Through 28 Nov. 217 ' Ozs ' Ozs 3,8 3,8 2,9 2, 1,1 2-7 -1,6 Net Fund Position in Nymex Long Short -2, 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 Disaggregated Nymex Non-Commercial Platinum Positions Nymex Futures and Options. Weekly Data, Through 28 Nov. 217 Thousand Ounces 3,6 3, 2,4 1,8 1,2 6-6 -1,2 Other Traders Money Managers Net Position Long -1,8 Short -2,4 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 2,9 2, 1,1 2-7 -1,6-2, Thousand Ounces 3,6 3, 2,4 1,8 1,2 6-6 -1,2-1,8-2,4 Platinum Prices, Total Open Interest, and Nymex Inventories Daily, Prices & Stocks Through 7 Dec., OI Through 6 Dec. $ / Oz Mln Ozs 3, 4. 2, 2, 1, 1, Prices (Left scale) Nymex Stocks Open Interest 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... Nymex Platinum Commercial Positions Nymex Futures & Options. Weekly Data, Through ' Ozs 1,2 8 4-4 -8-1,2-1,6-2, -2,4-2,8-3,2-3,6-4, Net Position in Nymex Long Short 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 28 Nov. 217 ' Ozs 1,2 8 4-4 -8-1,2-1,6-2, -2,4-2,8-3,2-3,6-4,
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 12 Platinum Shanghai Gold Exchange Monthly Platinum Trading Volume Data Through November 217 Troy Ounces Troy Ounces 2, 2, 18, 18, 16, 16, 14, 14, 12, 12, 1, 1, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Chinese Net Imports of Platinum Annual, Through October 217 Thousand Ounces 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Thousand Ounces 3, 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Note: Orange bar bar refers to to YTD YTD volume in in 213 the previous year 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Platinum Priced in South African Rand and in U.S. Dollar Daily Data Through 7 December 217 Index: 3 Jan. 2 = 1 4 Platinum (ZAR) 3 Platinum $ 3 2 2 1 Index 4 3 3 2 2 1 Chinese Net Imports of Platinum Monthly Volume, Through October 217 ' oz 3 3 2 2 1-6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 - - J-14 J-14 J- J- J-16 J-16 J-17 J-17
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 13 Nymex palladium experienced some brief investor profittaking during the first half of November, before rebounding in the second half of the month to hit a fresh elevenyear high of $1,23.9 on 29 November. A sharp increase in institutional investors gross long positions in palladium was largely responsible for the strong rebound in prices in late November. Gross longs held by institutional investors rose 2, ounces between 21 November and 28 November, or an increase of 8.% week-on-week, although gross shorts also rose, but at a much slower pace of 14,8 ounces, or an increase of 3.4%. Investors seemed to be impressed with the resilience of palladium prices which held firmly above $98 during the entire month of November in spite of profit-taking during the first half of the month. This boosted investor confidence in the future prospects of palladium s price appreciation and prompted them to add a large amount of gross longs positions in late November. This helped to push palladium prices to a fresh eleven-year high on 29 November. The December roll is now behind the market. On 3 November there were around 14, ounces of December open interest, against 17,3 ounces of registered inventories and 4,83 ounces of total Nymex reported inventories. This suggested that the spike up in prices on 28 November and 29 November may have been the final spike up for the December delivery roll. Most of the December contract already has rolled into the now nearby active March contract, which had nearly 3.3 million ounces in open interest on December. The physical market meanwhile seems better supplied. Much of the forward demand seems to be coming from speculators, rather than automobile and other companies looking for metal to meet fabricating needs. Gross longs held by institutional investors in Nymex palladium stood at 2.91 million ounces on 28 November, a historically high level, or 92.2% of the all-time high of 3.2 million ounces reached on 12 November 213. This high level of gross longs could make prices vulnerable to Palladium Three-Month Palladium Price Projections $/Oz 1,1 1, 1, 9 9 8 8 7 Acutal 7 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17 J-18 F-18 Palladium Prices: 1 January 21 to 7 December 217 $ /Oz 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13Jan-14Jan-Jan-16 Jan-17 Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercial Positions Nymex Palladium Futures &Options. Weekly Data, Through 28 Nov. ' Oz 3,6 2,8 2, 1,2 4-4 Long 997 Net Position in Nymex 124 9 89 Projected -1,2 Short -2, A-9 A-98 A-1 A-4 A-7 A-1 A-13 A-16 1,24 82 92 ' Oz 3,6 2,8 2, 1,2 4-4 -1,2-2,
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 14 Palladium massive liquidation. At the same time, gross shorts in the metal held by institutional investors stood at 449,1 ounces on 28 November, a relatively low level by historical standards. With the congestion in the palladium market starting to ease, palladium prices may subside and the market may move back to contango in the next couple of months. Investor long liquidation and/or short building could send prices lower to $89. If this level is breached, prices could slip further to $82. On the upside, prices could retest their recent peak of $1,2-$1,24 if the tightness on Nymex palladium contracts re-emerge or fabrication demand from auto makers is stronger than expected. U.S. Auto Sales Million Units 2 2 1-1992 1997 22 27 212 217 Source: Bloomberg. Note: 217 data is through November. Red bar is sales in 216 for same period in 217. Annual Percentage Change in Auto Sales 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -% -6% Brazil Russia India China USA 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 Source: Bloomberg. Note: 217 data is through October. Monthly Vehicle Production in China, Year-on-Year Change Through October 217 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan- Jan-17 Source: Bloomberg Ratio of US Cars to Light Truck Sales Passenger Cars Light Trucks 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % 22 2 28 211 214 217 Annual Vehicle Sales in China Thousand Vehicles 3, 2, 2,, 1,, - 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Source: Bloomberg. Note: 217 data is through October. Red bar is for same period in 216.
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page Palladium U.S. auto sales rebounded in November, up 1.3% year-on-year to nearly 1.4 million units, although this did not translate into a year-on-year increase in auto sales during the January-November period. Auto sales in the United States fell 1.6% year-on-year to. million units in the first eleven months of the year. In October Chinese auto sales were up 2.% year-onyear to 2.7 million units. During the January-October period, auto sales in China rose 4.% year-on-year to 22.9 million units. The other BRIC countries also recorded strong growth in their auto sales in the first ten months of the year. Brazil and Russia posted strongest growth in auto sales during this period, up 13.3% year-onyear and up 11.3% year-on-year, respectively. During November institutional investors continued to build fresh long positions in Nymex palladium, and they also covered their previously-built short positions, resulting in a 14.% increase in their net longs. Their gross longs stood at 2.91 million ounces on 28 November, only a tad lower than the nearly 3.1 million ounces reached on 9 September 214. This high level of gross longs held by institutional investors suggested that if there is a turnaround in investor sentiment, palladium prices will be vulnerable to massive liquidation. Institutional investors gross shorts stood at 449,1 ounces on 28 November, down 6.4% from the end of October, and only accounting for.4% of their gross longs in palladium, which were at historically high levels. Total open interest reached nearly 3. million ounces at the end of November, up 1.9% from the end of the previous month. Disaggregated Non-Commercial Positions Nymex Palladium Futures & Options. Weekly, Through 28 November Thousand Oz. 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - -1, -1, Short -2, Monthly Global Semiconductor Sales Data through September 217 4 3 3 Billion USD Money Managers Other Traders Net Position Thousand Oz. 4, Long 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - -1, -1, -2, Nov-9 May-11 Nov-12 May-14 Nov- May-17 Palladium Prices, Total Open Interest, and Nymex Inventories Daily, Prices & Inventories Through 7 Dec., OI Through 6 Dec. $ / Oz Mln Oz 11. 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 Prices (Left scale) Open Interest 2 Nymex Stocks 1 D-2 D-4 D-6 D-8 D-1 D-12 D-14 D-16 Source: Bloomberg 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... Billion USD 4 3 3 2 2 1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 Source: Semiconductor Industry Association,via Bloomberg. 2 2 1
217 Precious Metals Market Outlook 8 December 217 Page 16 World Palladium Supply and Demand Balance 1, Total Supply 9, 8, 7, Fabrication Demand 6,, 4, 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 1, 9, 8, 7, 6,, 4, Annual Palladium Supply Projected Through 217 Million Ounces 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Other Mine Production Secondary Supply Million Ounces 1 Russian Supply South African Mine Production 76 79 82 8 88 91 94 97 3 6 9 12 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Palladium Secondary Supply and Price Annual, Projected Through 217 Thousand Oz. 3 Annual Average Price 2 (right scale) 2 1 $/Ounce 1,2 1, 8 6 4 Secondary Supply 76 8 84 Source: CPM Group 88 92 96 4 8 12 16 2
CPM Group LLC CPM Group is a fundamentally based commodities research shop. We develop our own proprietary estimates of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium supply and demand on a global basis, drawing on every resource we can find, including our own extensive list of contacts involved in precious metals around the world. We have been doing this sort of research and analysis since the 197s, far longer than anyone else in the business. We also undertake research in specialty metals, base metals, energy and agricultural commodities. We are known for our basic fundamental research, a wide range of financially oriented consulting services, and our expertise in using financial derivatives to structure financing for producers, refiners, industrial users, and investors interested in either hedging or investing in commodities. Our investment philosophy is simple: We are value investors who base our decisions on what to buy, sell, hold, or avoid on the fundamentals of each asset, and the macro-economic, financial and political environmental factors that we expect will affect that asset s value. We have concerns, expressed in this report and elsewhere, about long-term imbalances in government deficit spending, public and private debt, and a wide range of other economic and political factors. We don t expect the world s financial system to collapse, however. That is not the way the world tends to work. More likely economic outcomes in the real world lie between the extremes of cataclysmic collapses and nirvana. We advise our clients and practice what we preach to have some of their wealth in gold and silver as an insurance policy against a catastrophic failure, but we also advise them to invest other portions of their money in precious metals and other assets based on the assumption that that sort of failure does not occur. We focus on investing based on likely scenarios, but with an eye always open to outlying events that take the world s markets by surprise. We have watched investors who were so worried about a collapse that they missed some of the largest stock and bond market rallies of all times over the past 3 years, while watching their safe haven assets fluctuate eight-fold in value up and down, and then up and down again. We prefer our clients to buy and sell precious metals and other assets based on cyclical and other developments, while also maintaining that long-term insurance policy in case the levee breaks. CPM Group LLC 168 7th St. Suite 31 Brooklyn, NY 112 USA T. 1-212-78-832 www.cpmgroup.com info@cpmgroup.com