Money & Credit: US Short-Term Business Credit December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Commercial & Industrial Loans 1 Short-Term Business Credit 2-5 December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
2575 24 Figure 1. Commercial & Industrial Loans C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) 2575 24 2225 2225 25 25 1875 1875 17 17 1525 1525 135 135 1175 1175 1 1 825 825 65 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 65 2375 2175 1975 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 42 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 Figure 2. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12/2 2375 2175 1975 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 42 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 Page 1 / December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
6 5 Figure 3. SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (yearly percent change) Short-Term Business Credit 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -3 Commercial & Industrial Loans Nonfinancial Commercial Paper -2-3 -4-5 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. -4-5 25 2 Figure 4. COMMERCIAL BANKS: C&I LOANS (yearly percent change) 25 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 -15-2 -25 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. -2-25 Page 2 / December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
3 Figure 5. Short-Term Business Credit C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (yearly percent change) 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -3 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 Figure 6. SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (yearly change, billion dollars) Commercial & Industrial Loans Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 Page 3 / December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Figure 7. C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (yearly change, billion dollars) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Short-Term Business Credit 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 26 24 Figure 8. SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 26 24 22 2 18 16 C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Oct 22 2 18 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau. 4 Page 4 / December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
Short-Term Business Credit 26 24 22 Figure 9. SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars, ratio scale) 26 24 22 2 18 Oct 2 18 16 14 12 C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) 16 14 12 1 1 8 8 6 Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) 6 4 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 4 Page 5 / December 21, 217 / US Short-Term Business Credit www.
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