Attachment 5 Year 2050 Population and Economic Forecasts #211068v1 Environmental Justice Task Force April 16, 2013 1
Introduction Population and economic projections serve as a basis for updating the regional land use and transportation plans to 2050 Future size and characteristics of the Region s population Future number and types of jobs The Commission has developed projections five times since 1960, typically with the release of decennial Census data A range (high, intermediate, and low) of population, household, and employment levels are projected Most recent projections prepared in 2000 for the 35 year period to 2035 and used as a basis for the year 2035 land use and transportation plans 2
Introduction Population and household projections: 2050 SEWRPC Technical Report No. 11 (5 th edition) The Population of Southeastern Wisconsin Employment projections: 2050 SEWRPC Technical Report No. 10 (5 th edition) The Economy of Southeastern Wisconsin Both reports were recently approved by the Commission s Advisory Committee on Regional Population and Employment Forecasts 3
Population Trends The Region s population was 2,020,000 in 2010, a 4.6 percent increase since 2000 This increase was greater than the 1970s and 1980s, but less than the 1990s 2,250 POPULATION IN THE REGION: 1900-2010 2,000 1,750 Population (in thousands) 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 4
Population Trends There was an increase in people age 50 to 64 and a decrease in people age 35 to 44 between 2000 and 2010, largely reflecting the aging of baby-boomers The median age of the Region s population has increased steadily between 1970 and 2010 from about 27 to 37 years of age The Region s minority population increased by 29 percent between 2000 and 2010 to 582,900 persons Washington 1.3% Walworth 2.3% Racine 8.6% Ozaukee 1.0% Minority Popula on Waukesha 6.3% Kenosha 6.3% Most of the minority population lives in Milwaukee County Milwaukee 74.2% 5
Population Trends Population change in the Region is a function of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (balance of migration into and out of the Region) 240,000 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE IN THE REGION: 1920-2010 200,000 160,000 120,000 PERSONS 80,000 40,000 0 40,000 80,000 Natural Increase Net Migra on 120,000 1920 1930 1930 1940 1940 1950 1950 1960 1960 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 YEARS 6
Household Trends Households, or occupied housing units, are important in land use and public facility planning There were about 800,100 households in the Region in 2010, a 6.8 percent increase since 2000 Household growth rate exceeding population growth rate Average household size is decreasing in the Region 3.36 persons in 1950 2.47 persons in 2010 Increase in Non-family and one person households 7
Economic Trends An understanding of the Region s economic base is also important in land use and public facility planning Number and type of jobs ( place of work data) Labor force ( place of residence data) Income levels There were 1,176,600 jobs in the Region in 2010, a 2.7 percent decrease from 2000 Prior to the 2000s there was job growth each decade since 1950 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (JOBS) 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 EMPLOYMENT IN THE REGION: 1970-2010 750,000 700,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR 8
Economic Trends Service industry jobs have increased significantly in the Region since 1970 and manufacturing jobs have decreased Similar shifts have happened Statewide and Nationwide EMPLOYMENT (JOBS) 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 EMPLOYMENT BY GENERAL INDUSTRY GROUP IN THE REGION: 1970-2010 AGRICULTURE CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE TRADE RETAIL TRADE SERVICES GOVERNMENT OTHER 100,000 50,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR 9
Year 2050 Projections As in past studies, the Commission prepared high, intermediate, and low projections, which recognize uncertainty in predicting future socio-economic conditions The intermediate projection is considered the most likely and constitutes the forecast to be used as a basis for preparing regional land use and transportation plans The high and low projections provide a range of population, household, and employment levels that may occur under significantly higher or lower, but plausible, growth scenarios for the Region 10
Year 2050 Population Projections Cohort-component method used in projecting population: Establish base population disaggregated into age-sex cohorts Establish an estimating cycle (five years) for age- and sex-specific fertility, survival, and migration rates Gradual increase in fertility rate Increased life expectancy Modest improvement in net migration due to long term economic growth and retirement of babyboomers Apply rates to base population for each cycle over the projection period 11
Year 2050 Population Projections The Region s population would increase from 2,020,000 in 2010 to 2,354,000 in 2050 under the intermediate growth scenario ACTUAL AND PROJECTED POPULATION IN THE REGION: 1950-2050 2.6 HIGH PROJECTION 2.4 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION 2.2 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 2.0 1.8 1.6 ACTUAL LOW PROJECTION 1.4 1.2 1.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR 12
Year 2050 Population Projections Most of the growth will occur due to natural increase 240,000 HISTORIC AND PROJECTED COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE IN THE REGION: 1950-2050 (INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION) 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 ACTUAL PROJECTED PERSONS 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Natural Increase Net Migra on -100,000-120,000 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 YEARS 13
Year 2050 Population Projections Persons 65 or older are expected to account for about 21 percent of the Region s population, compared to 13 percent in 2010 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 800 700 600 500 400 300 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED POPULATION IN THE REGION BY GENERAL AGE GROUP: 1950-2050 (INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION) AGE 45 TO 64 AGE 20 TO 44 AGE 0 TO 19 200 AGE 65 AND OLDER 100 ACTUAL PROJECTED 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 The minority share of the Region s population is projected to increase from 29 percent in 2010 to nearly 45 percent in 2050 A similar increase in the minority share of total population is expected for the Nation as a whole 14 YEAR
Year 2050 Household Projections The Region s households would increase from 800,100 in 2010 to 972,400 in 2050 under the intermediate growth scenario Average household size is projected to decrease from 2.47 persons in 2010 to 2.36 persons in 2050 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS IN THE REGION: 1950-2050 1,100 HIGH PROJECTION 1,000 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION 900 THOUSANDS OF HOUSEHOLDS 800 700 600 500 ACTUAL LOW PROJECTION 400 300 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR 15
Year 2050 Employment Projections Total employment is disaggregated into major industry groups and projections were developed for each group considering: Historic trends Projections from other agencies Various economic outlooks Projected employment is linked to the estimated size of the future labor force based on population projections Commission employment projections show long-term employment trends, irrespective of shorter term business cycle-related employment fluctuations 16
Year 2050 Employment Projections The Region s employment would increase from 1,176,600 jobs in 2010 to 1,386,900 jobs in 2050 under the intermediate growth scenario Continuing shift from manufacturing to service oriented jobs in the Region 1,600,000 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE REGION: 1970-2050 1,500,000 HIGH PROJECTION 1,400,000 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION 1,300,000 JOBS 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 ACTUAL LOW PROJECTION 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR 17
Comparison of Year 2050 Projections to Previous Commission Projections POPULATION IN MILLIONS COMPARISON OF YEAR 2050 POPULATION PROJECTIONS WITH PRIOR COMMISSION FORECASTS 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR ACTUAL LEVEL 1963 FORECAST FOR YEAR 1990 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1974 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2000 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1991 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2010 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1995 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2020 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 2004 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2035 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 2013 HIGH PROJECTION FOR 2050 2013 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION FOR 2050 2013 LOW PROJECTION FOR 2050 18
Comparison of Year 2050 Projections to Previous Commission Projections COMPARISON OF YEAR 2050 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS WITH PRIOR COMMISSION FORECASTS 1,100 1,000 HOUSEHOLDS IN THOUSANDS 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR ACTUAL LEVEL 1963 FORECAST FOR YEAR 1990 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1974 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2000 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1991 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2010 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1995 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2020 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 2004 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2035 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 2013 HIGH PROJECTIONFOR 2050 2013 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION FOR 2050 2013 LOW PROJECTION FOR 2050 19
Comparison of Year 2050 Projections to Previous Commission Projections COMPARISON OF YEAR 2050 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS WITH PRIOR COMMISSION FORECASTS 1,600 1,500 1,400 EMPLOYMENT (JOBS) IN THOUSANDS 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR ACTUAL LEVEL 1963 FORECAST FOR YEAR 1990 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1974 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2000 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1991 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2010 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 1995 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2020 REGIONAL LAND USE PLAN 2004 FORECAST FOR YEAR 2035 REGIONAL LAND PLAN 2013 HIGH PROJECTION FOR 2050 2013 INTERMEDIATE PROJECTION FOR 2050 2013 LOW PROJECTION FOR 2050 NOTE: ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE YEARS 1951-1959 AND 1961-1969. 20