QBR.b (T) Stock Rating: Target: Risk Rating: Cdn$38.74 Outperform (Unchanged) Cdn$43. (Unchanged) Above Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return 11.5% Stock Data: 52-w eek High-Low (Canada) $41.22 - $31.53 52-w eek High-Low (U.S.) NA Bloomberg/Reuters: Canada QBR/B / QBR.B Bloomberg/Reuters: U.S. NA (FYE Dec. 31) 215a 216e 217e Revenue (mln) $3,888 $4,24 $4,117 EBITDA (mln) $1,441 $1,495 $1,58 Adjusted EPS - FD $1.77 $2.27 $3.2 P/E 21.9x 17.1x 12.8x EV/EBITDA* 7.3x 7.x 6.5x FCF/Share $2.6 $2.8 $2.47 FCF Yield 5.4% 6.4% *Using forecast net debt + convertible debentures. Financial Data (as at September 3, 216): Shares Outstanding (mln) 122.2 Float (mln) 82.4 Market Capitalization (mln) $4,735 Net Debt + Convertibles (mln) $6,149 Common Shareholders' Equity (mln) $1,174 Net Debt to Capital 83.3% Leverage (Net Debt to EBITDA) 3.3x BVPS / Price/Book $6.65/5.8x Dividend $.18 Dividend Yield.5% Industry Rating (Telecom Services): Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Company Profile: Quebecor Inc. serves as the holding company for privately-held Quebecor Media which is owned 81. by QBR and 18.93% by Caisse de depot et placement du Québec. Les Placements Péladeau Inc. controls 64. of the votes and 27.1% of the equity. March 12, 217 Quebecor Inc. Quarterly Preview The NBF Daily Bulletin Cable Services 4Q Comes March 15 with Vidéotron Growth Complemented by TVA Beat, Target Upside HIGHLIGHTS 4Q call scheduled at 11: am ET: 877-293-852 (486#). We re looking for Revenues of $1.57B, EBITDA of $39.5M & Adj. FD EPS of $.65. Our estimates incorporate TVA s 4Q which came on March 3. Consensus is at $1.49B, $387.4M & $.6. On Feb. 16, Pierre Karl Péladeau returned as CEO. Wireless & Business continue to boost Telecom gains. We forecast Vidéotron Revenues +5.1% and EBITDA +5.2%. We expect Cable PSUs (-19.3K vs. -13.5K) and Wireless adds (+25.4K vs. +26.1K) to be down y/y, with Wireless ARPU growth of +7.2% to $52.77 (total ARPU +5.8%). We have Wireless EBITDA at $29.6M vs. $24.2M. Business Solutions to see ongoing M&A-driven growth as the 1/7/16 acquisition of Fibrenoire is boosted by expansion at 4Degrees Colocation (bought 3/11/15, Montreal data centre opened 9/13/16). Newspaper in secular decline, M&A reduced exposure. We anticipate Revenues to drop -5.1% to $49.M with EBITDA growth of +33.5% to $2.9M reflecting higher margins of 6.% vs. 4.3% in. Sun Media s English-language newspapers & digital properties were sold on 4/13/15. TVA 4Q Revs & EBITDA beat on Broadcasting and MELS. TVA s Revenues were $169.5M (NBF $159.M), with EBITDA at $22.M (NBF $18.3M). While Broadcasting enjoyed a jump in ad sales and lower opex growth, Film Production Services saw increased activity on all fronts and should grow in 217. Maintain Outperform, target appears to have upside. Our target s been based on the average of the 217E/218E metrics in our NAV. Although this now points to $42 after changes to our FCF, upside exists when we push to 218E. Implied EV/EBITDA = 7.3x 216E, 6.8x 217E & 6.3x 218E. Focus = sale of Wireless spectrum outside of Quebec, IPTV decision, takeout of the Caisse s 18.93% stake in QMI. Stock Performance (source: Reuters) Daily /QBRb.TO 3/7/216-3/22/217 (TOR) Price CAD 4. 39. 38.74 38. 37. 36. Adam Shine, CFA - 514-879-232 adam.shine@nbc.ca Associates: Luc Troiani, CFA 416-869-6585 luc.troiani@nbc.ca Ahmed Abdullah 514-879-2564 ahmed.abdullah@nbc.ca 16 1 18 2 16 1 16 4 18 2 16 1 16 3 17 1 16 1 16 3 16 1 16 1 16 Q1 16 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 35. 34. 33. 32. Volume 2.M 235,96..
Page 2 Quebecor 4Q16 Financial Forecast ($ millions) A % y/y Consensus REVENUES Cable Television 256. 263.5-2.8% Internet 254.3 239.5 6.2% Cable Telephony 13. 111.5-7.6% Mobile Telephony 139.4 111.5 25.% Business Solutions 28.9 18.1 59.5% Other 33. 3.7 7.5% Vidéotron 814.6 774.8 5.1% Retail and Eliminations 2. 2.3 Telecommunications 816.6 777.1 5.1% Newspaper Publishing 49. 51.6-5.1% Broadcasting 128.2 123. 4.3% MELS (Vision Globale) 15.2 11.8 29.2% Other 71.1 81.1-12.3% Media 263.5 267.4-1.5% Sports & Entertainment 11.1 1.1 1.% Head Office -33.8-33.8.% Total Revenues 1,57.4 1,2.8 3.6% 1,49. EBITDA Vidéotron 365.9 347.8 5.2% % EBITDA Margin 44.9% 44.9% Retail and Eliminations.9 1.2 Telecommunications 366.8 349. 5.1% Newspaper Publishing 2.9 2.2 % EBITDA Margin 6.% 4.3% Broadcasting 17.4 14. MELS (Vision Globale) 2.4 1. Other 6.1 5.1 Media 28.9 22.3 29. Sports & Entertainment -2.2-3.1-28.3% Head Office -3. -7.4 Total EBITDA 39.5 36.8 8.2% 387.4 % EBITDA Margin 36.9% 3 36.9% Adjusted EPS - FD ($) $.65 $.43 5.4% $.6 Free Cash Flow 97.3 223.2-56.4% 79.9 Quebecor 4Q16 Operating Forecast Basic TV Adds (k) -9.2-9. -1.7 Internet Adds (k) 9.7 8.7 9.4 Telephony Adds (k) -19.9-13.2-17.2 Total Cable Adds (k) -19.3-13.5-18.5 Wireless Adds (k) 25.4 26.1 na Wireless ARPU $52.77 $49.23 7.2% $52.45 Total ARPU $148.37 $14.19 5.8% na estimates
Page 3 New Previous New Previous QBR Financial Forecast ($MLN) 215A y/y% 216E y/y% 216E 217E y/y% 217E Revenues Vidéotron Cable Television 1,54-2.% 1,24-2.8% 1,24 998-2.5% 998 Internet 921 7.5% 985 6.9% 985 1,43 5.9% 1,43 Cable Telephony 458-3.6% 423-7.6% 423 394-6.8% 394 Wireless 44 4.3% 513 27.% 513 624 21. 624 Business Solutions 69 11 58.9% 11 121 1.% 121 Other 93 37.3% 12 9.8% 13 17 5.% 18 Vidéotron Revenues 2,998 6.1% 3,156 3,157 3,287 4.2% 3,288 Retail and Eliminations 9-13.3% 7-19.8% 7 7-5.% 7 Telecomunications Revenues 3,7 6.% 3,163 5.2% 3,164 3,294 4.1% 3,295 Media Newspaper Publishing 228-11.1% 197-13.2% 197 159-19.4% 159 Broadcasting 421 1.8% 428 1.5% 421 429.3% 415 MELS (Vision Globale) 6 59-1.3% 56 64 8.2% 56 Other 264 22.6% 251-4.9% 251 239-4.9% 241 Media Revenues 973 14.3% 935-3.9% 925 891-4. 872 Sports & Entertainment Revenues 23 226.8% 36 54.8% 36 4 1.% 4 Head Office Revenues -115-111 -17-17 -17 Total Revenues 3,888 7.8% 4,24 3.5% 4,18 4,117 2.3% 4,99 EBITDA Vidéotron 1,382 2.5% 1,449 4.8% 1,45 1,526 1,527 % Margin 46.1% 45.9% 45.9% 46.4% 46.4% Retail and Eliminations 3 2 2 2 2 Telecomunications 1,386 2.4% 1,452 4.8% 1,452 1,529 1,529 % Margin 46.1% 45.9% 45.9% 46.4% 46.4% Newspaper Publishing 15-39.3% 11-26.4% 11 7-35.2% 7 % Margin 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 4.5% 4.5% Broadcasting 26 29.9% 22-12.6% 19 28 26.8% 32 % Margin 6.1% 5.2% 4.5% 6.6% 7.6% MELS (Vision Globale) 14 9 8 14 8 Other 16 25 26 24 25 Media 7 2.2% 68-3. 64 73 8.5% 72 % Margin 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% Sports & Entertainment -12-8 -8-7 -7 Head Office -4-16 -16-15 -15 Total EBITDA 1,441 2.2% 1,495 3.8% 1,492 1,58 5. 1,58 % Margin 37.1% 37.2% 37.1% 38.4% 38.5% Adj. Basic EPS $1.95 14. $2.45 25.5% $2.46 $3.2 23.5% $3.2 Adj. FD EPS $1.77 12. $2.27 28.1% $2.28 $3.2 33.3% $3.2 Free Cash Flow* 252 16.1% 254.9% 32 32 18.8% 315 Capital Expenditures* 1,39 8.1% 837-19.5% 837 771-7.9% 755 QBR Subscriber Forecast (s) Basic Video Net Additions -45-5 -5-42 -42 Internet Net Additions 31 38 38 26 26 Telephony Net Additions -33-71 -71-56 -56 Wireless Net Additions 136 125 125 112 112 Cable ARPU ($) $115.2 3.6% $118.38 2.8% $118.38 $121.87 2.9% $121.87 Total ARPU ($) $135.68 8.4% $143.34 5.6% $143.34 $153.8 6.8% $153.8 *215 excludes $218.8 million in spectrum purchases estimates
Page 4 Quebecor - Key Credit Metrics ($MLN, unless otherw ise noted) 216E 217E EBITDA 1,433 1,441 1,456 1,467 1,466 1,495 1,58 Y/Y Change 1.4% 2.2% 3.% 4.5% 2.3% 3.8% 5. Debt / EBITDA 4.1x 4.1x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.8x 3.6x Net Debt / EBITDA 4.1x 4.1x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.7x 3.4x Net Debt / Capital 82.4% 83.5% 82. 82. 82.8% 81.5% 76.3% EBITDA / Interest 4.3x 4.3x 4.4x 4.5x 4.5x 4.6x 5.x FFO / Debt.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x Calculations involving Income Statement items are on an LTM basis. EBITDA figures are ex-items. Calculations are based on Quebecor Inc. not Quebecor Media. Debt excludes convertibles and derivative assets. Our valuation includes $5 million in convertible debentures, and derivative assets as reported by QBR. Source: Company reports and National Bank Financial. Maintain Outperform and $43. Target Our target is still based on the average of the 217E and 218E metrics in our NAV. Although this now points closer to $42 following changes to our FCF, upside appears to exist to our target when we push out our valuation by six months to 218E after the March 15 reporting. Our current target implies EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.3x 216E, 6.8x 217E and 6.3x 218E. Quebecor Inc. - Net Asset Value Analysis ($MLN) EBITDA Multiple Value 215A 216E 217E 218E (x) 215A Per Share 216E Per Share 217E Per Share 218E Per Share I. Quebecor Media Inc. NAV: Private Holdings Telecom (Vidéotron Cable) $1,336.8 $1,352.2 $1,375.3 $1,39.9 6.5 $8,689.2 $7.93 $8,789. $71.86 $8,939.2 $73.9 $9,4.6 $73.92 Telecom (Vidéotron Wireless) $49. $99.5 $153.4 $229.1 DCF $1,974.7 $16.12 $2,15.2 $17.58 $2,311.7 $18.9 $2,448.6 $2.2 Toronto AWS Spectrum $96.4 $96.4 $96.4 $96.4 @Book $96.4 $.79 $96.4 $.79 $96.4 $.79 $96.4 $.79 7 MHz Spectrum $233.3 $233.3 $233.3 $233.3 @Book $233.3 $1.9 $233.3 $1.91 $233.3 $1.91 $233.3 $1.91 Quebec Remparts (QMJHL Team) $25. $25. $25. $25. @Book $25. $.2 $25. $.2 $25. $.2 $25. $.2 News Media (Selling Assets) $15. $11. $7.2 $4.9 3. $45. $.37 $33.1 $.27 $21.5 $.18 $14.7 $.12 Book Publishing & Distribution $7.7 $13.8 $12.6 $11.7 3. $23.2 $.19 $41.5 $.34 $37.8 $.31 $35.2 $.29 Sports & Entertainment ($11.7) ($8.4) ($7.1) ($6.4) 6. ($7.2) ($.57) ($5.5) ($.41) ($42.6) ($.35) ($38.2) ($.31) Current Public Holdings Price Groupe TVA [TVA.B:TSX] 1 29,539,364 (68.4% equity, 99.9% votes) $3.47 118.1.96 96..78 12.5.84 147.7 1.21 QMI Gross Asset Value 11,134.8 9.9 11,414. 93.33 11,724.8 95.87 12,3.4 98.15 Less: QMI Net Debt ex-tva Debt (includes derivative asset) 4,775.7 38.99 4,7. 38.43 4,468. 36.53 3,793.9 31.2 QMI Net Asset Value 6,359.1 51.91 6,714. 54.9 7,256.8 59.34 8,29.5 67.13 Holding Company Discount % % % % QMI Equity Value 6,359.1 51.91 6,714. 54.9 7,256.8 59.34 8,29.5 67.13 Less: Minority Interest (18.93% owned by Caisse, was 24.6% pre-215) 1,23.8 9.83 1,271. 1.39 1,373.7 11.23 1,554.1 12.71 QMI Value to Quebecor Inc. (81., was 75.4% pre-215) 5,155.3 42.8 5,443. 44.51 5,883.1 48.1 6,655.4 54.42 Quebecor Inc. Shares Outstanding 122.5 122.3 122.3 122.3 QMI Value per QBR Share 42.1 44.5 48.1 54.4 Quebecor Inc. Total Asset Value 5,155.3 42.8 5,443. 44.51 5,883.1 48.1 6,655.4 54.42 Less: Quebecor Inc. (parent-level) Net Debt (includes convertible debentures) 555.9 4.54 531.2 4.34 531.2 4.34 531.2 4.34 Quebecor Inc. Net Asset Value 4,599.4 37.55 4,911.8 4.16 5,351.9 43.76 6,124.2 5.8 Holding Company Discount 1% (3.75) 1% (4.2) 1% (4.38) 1% (5.1) Quebecor Inc. Equity Value 4,139.5 33.79 4,42.7 36.15 4,816.7 39.38 5,511.8 45.7 Quebecor Inc. Shares Outstanding 122.5 122.3 122.3 122.3 NAV per Quebecor Inc. Share $33.79 $36.15 $39.38 $45.7 NAV Sensitivities: Telecom (Vidéotron Cable).5x $3.98 $4.3 $4.1 $4.15 Telecom (Vidéotron Wireless) DCFg1% $1.89 $2.6 $2.24 $2.45 News Media.5x $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 Book Publishing & Distribution.5x $.2 $.4 $.4 $.4 Sports & Entertainment.5x $.3 $.3 $.2 $.2 Groupe TVA $.5 $.9 $.9 $.9 $.9 QMI Holdco Discount 5.% $1.89 $2. $2.16 $2.45 QBR Holdco Discount 5.% $1.88 $2.1 $2.19 $2.5 1 Current price for 216E, 12-month target price of $5. for 217E & 218E; QMI subscribed to ~17.3M Class B shares as part of TVA's rights offering on 3/18/15 w hich is now reflected in our NAV. Source: Quebecor Inc. and National Bank Financial estimates.
Page 5 Consolidated Revenues ($MLN) & Growth (%) Consolidated EBITDA ($MLN) & Margin (%) 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 873 2.2% 929 6.4% 5.% 975 1.4% 893 7.9% 964 3.% 993. 888 9.8% 975 2.4% 998 2.9% 954 7.% 1,21 1,57 3.6% 2.% 18.% 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.% 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 335 38.4% 339 36.5% 36.4% 355 4.3% 36 36.2% 349 36.3% 36 4.8% 362 4.2% 391 39.% 39 37.% 353 361 3 391 36.9% 5.% 48.% 46.% 44.% 42.% 4.% 38.% 36.% 34.% 32.%.% 3.% Consolidated EBITDA Growth (%) Consolidated Expenses ($MLN) & Growth (%) 12.5% 1.5% 8.5% 6.5% 4.5% 2.5%.5% -1.5% -3.5% -5.5% 8.1% 1.3% 4.6% 4.5% -2.9% 3.1% -.2% 8.2% -.4% -.9% 2.2% 8.2% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 538-5.4% 9.6% 59 Adjusted EPS - FD ($) & Growth (%) Net Debt to EBITDA (x) $1. $.9 35.% 3.% 3.9x $.8 $.7 $.6 $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 $. $.34 47.8% $.32-5.9% $.5 56.3% 32.3% $.41 19.5% $.49 4.1% $.51 4.9% $.43 25.6% $.54 13.% $.61 3.7x 3.5x 3.3x 3.1x 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x 3.36x 3.29x Consolidated Capex ($MLN) & Capex Intensity (%) LTM Vidéotron & Consolidated Capex Intensity (%) 3 4.% 35% Vidéotron Capex Intensity 25 2 15 1 179 2.4% 2.5% 191 22.1% 216 2.4% 182 18.5% 179 23.5% 234 21.5% 191 25.8% 252 19. 196 2.2% 192 19.5% 199 191 18.1% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 3% 25% 2% 15% 2.6% 17.6% 24.6% 2.6% 24.4% 21.5% 21.8% 18.6% 24.% 2.2% 26.% 22. Consolidated Capex Intensity 22.8% 19.2% 24.3% 21.3% 25.% 21.2% 24.4% 2.6% 24.1% 21.1% 24.3% 2.8% 5 5.% 1% LTM Free Cash Flow ($MLN) LTM Dividend Payout Ratio on EPS (%) 5 4 3 357 299 44 34 439 381 217 251 255 1% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 6% 2 1 137 99-1 -36 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %.% 5% 3.4x 3.39x 3.3x 3.41x 3.18x 3.53x 3.32x 3.26x 3.4x 3.2x $.38 5.6% $.43 13.2% $.65 5.4% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% 5.2% 621-4.4% 533 1 615 2.9% 632-3.6% 526 1.9% 583 4.4% 69 -. 61 66 9.9% 667 1.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -7.5% -1.%
Page 6 Vidéotron Revenues ($MLN) & Growth (%) Vidéotron EBITDA ($MLN) & Margin (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 693 4.8% 732 5.6% 771 3.1% 695 6.3% 739 779 3. 79 6.1% 752 792 73 775 6.1% 815 5.1% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.% 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 335 48.3% 343 46.8% 358 46.5% 47.6% 331 46.2% 341 46.5% 362 47.8% 339 46.6% 35 45.8% 363 47.1% 344 348 44.9% 366 44.9% 54.% 52.% 5.% 48.% 46.% 44.% 42.%.% 2 4.% Vidéotron EBITDA Growth (%) Vidéotron Expenses ($MLN) & Growth (%) 1.% 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 7.% 2.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.1% 6.2% 2.% 3.4% 3.6% 6.6% 1.2% 5.2% 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 358 2.8% 389 8. 6.% 413 2.8% 364 9.3% 398 4.6% 416 37 8. 42 6. 429 4.2% 386 427 1.5% 449 5.1% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.%.% -1.% 5 Television Net Adds (s) 2 3 Internet Net Adds (s) 25 23 2 24-5 -2-2 2-1 -15-2 -14-12 -15-17 -14-9 -9 15 1 5 4 6 1 4 9 1-25 -23-25 -5-4 -3-1 -6 3 Telephony Net Losses (s) 7 Cable Net RGU Adds (s) 2 5 38 1-2 -2 12 3 1-1 11 4-1 -2-3 -4-12 -7-2 -8-19 -7-13 -2-3 -5-7 -12-11 -17-19 -34-51 -17-13 -19 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 18 29 27 Wireless Blended Net Adds (s) 3 41 33 38 4 39 42 26 25 $6. $5. $4. $3. $2. $1. $4.6-1.% $46.2 14.9% Wireless Blended ARPU ($) & Growth (%) $49.66 $41.43 $47.4 $5.51 $44.16 $49.8 $52.61 $45.48 7.9% 2.1% 13.5% 7.4% 6.3% 11.1% 7.2% 12.4% $49.23 8.2% $52.77 7.2% 33.% 28.% 23.% 18.% 13.% 8.% 3.% $. -2.%
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Page 8 NBF quarterly ratings summary and the total ratings by month can be found on our website under Research and Analysis/Equities/About NBF Research/Quarterly Ratings Summary (link attached) http://www.nbcn.ca/cmst/site/index.jhtml?navid=83&templateid=249 The NBF Research Dissemination Policy is available on our website under Legal/Research Policy (link attached) http://www.nbcn.ca/cmst/site/index.jhtml?navid=712&templateid=243 Click on the following link to see the company specific disclosures http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html Click on the following link to see National Bank Financial Markets Statement of Policies http://nbfm.ca/en/statement-of-policies/ If a company specific disclosure is not found herein for a listed company, NBF at this time does not provide research coverage or stock rating for the company in question. Additional company related disclosures for Quebecor Inc. (6,7,1) 6 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has a non-investment banking services related relationship during the past 12 months. 7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months. 1 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.