本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 1 wwwww1 SWS Research Co. Ltd 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com Capital Goods Company Research The Chinese View on China August 10, 2012 Outperform Unchanged Market Data: Aug,9 Closing Price (HK$) 19.36 Price Target (HK$) 21.37 HSCEI 9,962 HSCCI 3,945 52-week High/Low (HK$) 23.50/10.82 Market Cap (USD Mn) 1,139 Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 8,830 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 456 Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.23 Price Performance Chart: Source: Bloomberg Analyst Titus Wu A0230511040056 ARG344 wutao@swsresearch.com Contact Nicole Yao (8621)23297818 7317 Related Reports "ZHUZHOU CSR TIMES ELECTRIC-H ( 3898 HK ) - Weak 1Q12 results not a surprise" Apr 17,2012 " ZHUZHOU CSR TIMES ELECTRIC-H (3898 HK) Return to stable stage" March 30, 2012 " ZHUZHOU CSR TIMES ELECTRIC-H (3898 HK) Prudent attitude on railway FAI in 2012" Dec 28,2011 The company or its affiliate may have equities of the listed corporation reviewed authorized by law. The company may also provide investment banking and consulting service to the listed corporation. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for the relevant disclosure materials. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure in the last page. 株洲南车时代电气 ( 3898.HK ) 中报业绩显示环比改善迹象 Financial summary and valuation 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenue (RMB million) 5,887 7,125 7,803 8,869 10,224 YOY (%) 77.02 21.03 9.52 13.66 15.27 Net income (RMB million) 852 1,187 1,248 1,410 1,616 YOY (%) 59.45 39.31 5.18 12.97 14.60 EPS (RMB) 0.78 1.09 1.15 1.30 1.49 Diluted EPS (RMB) 0.78 1.09 1.15 1.30 1.49 ROE (%) 18.65 21.83 19.78 19.27 19.08 Debt/asset (%) 35.53 37.17 36.76 35.80 35.27 Dividend Yield (%) 1.89 2.11 2.14 2.41 2.77 P/E (x) 20.57 14.77 14.04 12.43 10.85 P/B (x) 3.83 3.22 2.77 2.39 2.07 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.08 10.29 9.49 8.10 6.81 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each year s EPS. 投资要点 : 南车时代电气 2012 年度上半年营业收入达到人民币 32.0 亿元, 同比下降 25.2%; 公司权利持有人收益达到人民币 5.46 亿元, 同比下降 41.7%; 每股收益为人民币 0.50 元, 符合我们预期的人民币 0.50 元 疲弱的业绩在市场的意料之中 第一季度营业收入达到人民币 14.5 亿元, 同比下降 27.8%; 公司权利持有人收益达到人民币 2.3 亿元, 同比下降 51.3% 公司在第二季度的表现强于第一季度 我们认为尽管铁道部对动车组和大功率机车的采购订单还没有踪影, 公司在第二季度的产品交付在加速 铁路固定资产投资正在复苏 2012 年的前 7 个月铁路固定资产投资达到近 2257 亿, 同比下降 30%, 铁路基建投资同比下降 33.5% 铁路固定资产投资的增速逐步走出谷底, 在第一季度铁路固定资产投资的增速还是同比下降 51% 铁道部在 7 月底宣布将 2012 年的铁路基建投资增加到人民币 4700 亿, 这也是今年铁道部第二次上调基建投资计划 新投资计划的规模比原先增加了约 17% 中央政府继续保持对铁道部发债的支持, 以缓解其紧张的资金状况和尽力完成延误的基建进程 对于 2012 年的铁路车辆采购的投资, 我们预计铁路固定资产投资复苏之后状况将会好转 我们注意到公司在第二季度运营生产上已经有积极的变化 首先,380 时速动车组被要求提前交付 其次, 250 时速动车组的主要零部件已经完成库存准备, 以配合即将到来的订单 再次,6 轴 9600 的大功率机车的生产已经开始, 尽管没有下达订单但是铁道部有要求交付 所以, 我们预计公司的产品交付已经提速, 铁道部的订单将会在尽快下达 我们预计相应的宽松政策将出台以支持铁道部完成今年的任务 基于南车时代电气 2012/13/14 年的每股盈利预测为人民币 1.15/1.30/1.49 元, 我们维持港币 21.37 元的目标价和增持评级
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 2 wwwww2 Investment Highlights: CSR Times Electric announced its 1H12 results. Revenue came in 25.2% lower YoY at Rmb3.20B. Net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb0.55B, down 41.7% YoY while EPS was Rmb0.50, in line with our forecast of Rmb0.50. Weak results were not surprises to market. 1Q12 revenue came in 27.8% lower YoY at Rmb1.45B. Net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb0.23B, down 51.3% YoY. The performance in 2Q was better than 1Q. We believe that the delivery in 2Q came to speed up, although there was no sign of MoR s orders on procurement of EMUs and large power locomotives. The recovery of rail FAI is coming. In first 7 months of 2012, rail FAI came in 30.0% YoY lower at RMB 225.7B and construction investment fell 33.5%. The rail FAI growth rate stepped up from the trough, which indicated a decline of 51% in 1Q. The MoR announced at end of July that it plans to spend RMB470B on rail constructions in 2012, which was the second time MoR has increased its railway spending target for this year. The new target indicated ~17% increase from the original target. The central government maintained to support the MoR s bond issue in order to ease its tight funding situation and speed up the delayed construction process in 2012. In terms of investment on railway vehicle procurement in 2012, we expect that the situation come to improve after the recovery of railway construction investment. We find positive clues on the company s operating production in 2Q. First, the delivery of EMUs with 380 km/h was required to hurry up. Second, the inventory of key components for EMUs with 250 km/h was build in order to meet the orders in immediate future. Third, the production of 9600KW locomotive has operated without the bid orders, but with MoR s requirement. We estimate the company s delivery begins to speed up from the market demand, and MoR s orders will probably come in early of 2H12. We expect easing measures for supporting MoR to achieve the target for this year. Based on our 2012/13/14 EPS forecasts of RMB1.15/1.30/1.49, we maintain our target price of HK$21.37, and Outperform rating. Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 3 wwwww3 Appendix Table 1: Consolidated Income Statement Million RMB 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenue 5,887 7,125 7,803 8,869 10,224 Cost of Sales 3,708 4,599 5,017 5,711 6,591 Gross Profit 2,178 2,526 2,786 3,158 3,632 Other Income (102) (63) (67) (70) (73) Selling & Distribution expense 346 347 406 461 532 Administrative expense 754 818 936 1,064 1,227 EBITDA 1,103 1,452 1,557 1,769 2,036 EBIT 977 1,297 1,377 1,563 1,800 Finance Costs 18 27 25 26 27 Profit before tax 987 1,381 1,469 1,659 1,902 Income tax expense 135 194 220 249 285 Profit for the year 852 1,187 1,248 1,410 1,616 Minority interests 2 3 3 3 4 Equity holders of the parent 851 1,184 1,246 1,407 1,613 Source: SWS Research Table 2: Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Million RMB 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Profit before taxation 987 1,381 1,469 1,659 1,902 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 138 155 180 206 236 Finance cost 11 27 25 26 27 Losses from investments (31) (111) (116) (122) (128) Change in working capital (472) (410) (537) (295) (408) Others 8 (38) (45) (53) (64) CF from operating activities 754 1,242 765 1,186 1,294 CAPEX (234) (352) (236) (268) (309) Other CF from investing activities 145 3 3 3 3 CF from investing activities (389) (618) (198) (220) (250) Equity financing 0 0 0 0 0 Net change in liabilities 188 (139) (14) (15) (17) Dividend and interest paid 223 279 374 422 484 Other CF from financing activities 0 0 0 0 0 CF from financing activities 156 (140) (360) (407) (467) Net change of cash flow 520 485 208 558 577 Source:SWS Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 4 wwwww4 Table 3: Consolidated Balance Sheet Million RMB 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Current Assets 5,179 6,538 7,662 8,935 10,459 Bank balances and cash 1,681 2,158 2,356 2,906 3,474 Trade and other receivables 1,719 2,274 2,875 3,209 3,670 Inventories 1,590 1,669 1,923 2,146 2,460 Other current assets 1,006 1,593 1,890 2,216 2,616 Interest in associates 179 244 266 291 318 PP&E 1,200 1,368 1,505 1,574 1,656 Other assets 182 200 220 242 267 Total Assets 7,088 8,654 9,982 11,398 13,085 Current Liabilities 2,376 2,920 3,334 3,702 4,185 Borrowings 0 139 153 168 185 Trade and other payables 1,709 1,855 2,164 2,414 2,768 Other current liabilities 668 925 1,018 1,120 1,232 Long-term liabilities 142 297 335 379 430 Total Liabilities 2,519 3,216 3,669 4,080 4,615 Share Capital 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084 Reserves 3,389 4,232 5,104 6,090 7,219 Minority interest 97 121 124 143 166 Total Liabilities and equity 7,088 8,654 9,982 11,398 13,085 Source: SWS Research Table 4: Key Financial Ratios 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Ratios per share (RMB) Earnings per share 0.78 1.09 1.15 1.30 1.49 Operating CF per share 0.70 1.15 0.71 1.09 1.19 Dividend per share 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.39 0.45 Net assets per share 4.21 5.02 5.82 6.75 7.81 Key Operating Ratios (%) ROE 18.65 21.83 19.78 19.27 19.08 Gross profit margin 37.01 35.45 35.70 35.61 35.53 EBITDA Margin 20.67 21.28 20.81 20.74 20.64 EBIT Margin 18.32 19.10 18.50 18.41 18.33 Growth rate of Revenue (YoY) 77.02 21.03 9.52 13.66 15.27 Growth rate of Profit (YoY) 59.45 39.31 5.18 12.97 14.60 Debt-to-asset ratio 35.53 37.17 36.76 35.80 35.27 Turnover rate of net assets 1.29 1.31 1.24 1.21 1.21 Turnover rate of total assets 0.83 0.82 0.78 0.78 0.78 Effective tax rate (%) 13.69 14.04 15.00 15.00 15.00 Dividend yield (%) 1.89 2.11 2.14 2.41 2.77 Source: SWS Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3
本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 5 wwwww5 Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). 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本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给泰信基金朱志权 (zhuzhiquan@ftfund.com) 使用 6 wwwww6 taken or transmitted into Canada. The distribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report the clients agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2