1/2/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). FX Focus:AUD/USD AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched.765. Markets await the release of December Trade Balance. Currency AUD EUR GBP Current Trend Support / Resistance vs USD vs USD 1.64 / 1.881 1.2146 / 1.284 Market commentary vs USD.747 /.7652 AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched.765. Markets await the release of December Trade Balance. Europe s January inflation was 1.8% YoY, better than expected. The director of the US President Trump Administration s National Trade Council thought that EUR was undervalued. EURUSD once touched 1.811. Markets await the release of Germany December Factory Order. GBP rebounded after dropping 3 days in a roll. GBPUSD once touched 1.2596. Markets await the release of February Central Bank Meeting result. NZD vs USD.7117 /.7422 RMB CAD * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. vs USD 6.8298 / 6.923 vs USD 1.3996 / 1.4268 Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the USD Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the USD China s market closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Affected by USD, CNH strengthened accordingly. USDCNH once dropped to 6.82 levels. Markets await the release of January Caixin China PMI Mfg. Japan s policy rate was unchanged at -.1%, same as expected. December CPI dropped.2% YoY, JPY vs USD 111.34 / 114.91 slightly better than expected. December unemployment rate stayed at 3.1%, same as expected. The US Dollar Index weakened, causing JPY to strengthen. USDJPY once dropped to 112.4 levels. KOF leading indicator was 11.7, worse than expected. But the President Trump s safety policy led CHF vs USD.9783 / 1.75 to increased market risk aversion. CHF strengthened. USDCHF once dropped to.9857 levels. Markets await the release of December Retail Sales. SGD Affected by US Dollar Index dropping, NZD rose to one-week high. NZDUSD once touched.735. Markets await the release of February Central Bank Meeting result. vs USD 1.2868 / 1.3288 Canada s November GDP was.4% MoM, better than expected. USDCAD once dropped to 1.2967 levels. Markets await the release of January Housing Starts figure. Affected by weakening USD, SGD strengthened. USDSGD once dropped to 1.466 levels. Markets await the release of January PMI.
1/2/217 AUD RBA maintained December monetary policy unchanged, as market expected. AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched.765. Markets await the release of December Trade Balance. 1-Feb 1.69.758 Daily change: -.37% -.37% (-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 1.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.1% in previous quarter High 1.822.768 (-) Australia Q4 CPI rose.5% YoY, lower than an increase of.7% in previous quarter Low 1.6.7426 (-) Australia December unemployment rate arrived at 5.8%, higher than 5.7% in previous month Support* 1.59.747 (+) Australia December Commodity Price Index arrived at 45.5%, higher than 28.7% in previous month Resistance* 1.81.7652 1.1 1.5 1..95 AUD/SGD 6-month Chart AUD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.9 9 AUD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 EUR The ECB maintained January monetary policy unchanged. Europe s January inflation was 1.8% YoY, better than expected. The director of the US President Trump Administration s National Trade Council thought that EUR was undervalued. EURUSD once touched 1.811. Markets await the release of Germany December Factory Order. 1-Feb 1.522 1.8 Daily change:.18%.18% (-) Germany Q3 GDP rose.2% QoQ, lower than an increase of.4% in previous quarter High 1.5343 1.811 (+) Eurozone January CPI rose 1.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous month Low 1.582 1.57 (+) Germany January manufacturing PMI arrived at 56.5, higher than 55.6 in previous month Support* 1.59 1.64 (-) Germany January Business Climate arrived at 19.8, lower than 111 in previous month Resistance* 1.535 1.881 EUR/SGD 6-month Chart EUR/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 9 EUR/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
1/2/217 GBP Bank of England maintained November monetary policy unchanged, as market expected but revised its expectation on next year's GDP growth to 1.4%. GBP rebounded after dropping 3 days in a roll. GBPUSD once touched 1.2596. Markets await the release of February Central Bank Meeting result. 1-Feb 1.773 1.258 (~) UK Q4 GDP advance result rose 2.2% YoY, same as pervious quarter's final value Daily change: -.2% -.2% (+) UK December CPI rose.5% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous month High 1.85 1.2673 (~) UK ILO November's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.8%, same as pervious month Low 1.714 1.1979 Support* 1.722 1.2146 (+) UK December Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 4.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 4.4% in Resistance* 1.812 1.284 previous month 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 GBP/SGD 6-month Chart GBP/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.7 9 GBP/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced to cute rate by 25bps to a record low of 1.75%. Affected by US Dollar Index dropping, NZD rose to one-week high. NZDUSD once touched.735. Markets await the release of February Central Bank Meeting result. 1-Feb 1.3.731 Daily change: -.47% -.47% (+) New Zealand Q3 GDP rose 3.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.4% in previous quarter High 1.413.735 (+) New Zealand Q4 CPI rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.4% in previous quarter Low 1.58.745 (-) New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 5.2%, higher than 4.9% in previous quarter Support* 1.1.7117 (-) New Zealand December Commodity Price Index arrived at.7%, lower than 3.2% in previous month Resistance* 1.46.7422 1.5 1..95.9.85 NZD/SGD 6-month Chart NZD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.8 9 NZD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
1/2/217 RMB CFETS expressed PBoC is able to keep RMB stable at the equilibrium level. RMB has no basis for the continued devaluation. China s market closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Affected by USD, CNH strengthened accordingly. USDCNH once dropped to 6.82 levels. Markets await the release of January Caixin China PMI Mfg. 1-Feb.25 6.877 Daily change: -.78% -.78% (+) China Q4 GDP rose 6.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 6.7% in previous quarter High.29 6.9221 (-) China December CPI rose 2.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.3% in previous month Low.243 6.8289 (+) China December Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.9, higher than 5.9 in previous month Support*.23 6.8298 (-) China December industrial production rose 6% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.2% in previous month Resistance*.28 6.923.22 RMB/SGD 6-month Chart RMB/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.21.2.19 9 RMB/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 CAD Bank of Canada kept January monetary policy unchanged but it also said that rate cut is on the table. Canada s November GDP was.4% MoM, better than expected. USDCAD once dropped to 1.2967 levels. Markets await the release of January Housing Starts figure. ` 1-Feb 1.82 1.33 (~) Canada November GDP rose 1.6% YoY, same as pervious month Daily change: -.12% -.12% (+) Canada December CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.2% in previous month High 1.937 1.3387 (-) Canada December unemployment rate arrived at 6.9%, higher than 6.8% in previous month Low 1.65 1.2967 (+) Canada December Manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.8, higher than 51.5 in previous month Support* 1.67 1.2868 Resistance* 1.95 1.3288 1.1 CAD/SGD 6-month Chart CAD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.5 1..95 9 CAD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
1/2/217 JPY BOJ announced to maintain interest rate unchanged in December, but fine-tuned the framework of monetary policy. Japan s policy rate was unchanged at -.1%, same as expected. December CPI dropped.2% YoY, slightly better than expected. December unemployment rate stayed at 3.1%, same as expected. The US Dollar Index weakened, causing JPY to strengthen. USDJPY once dropped to 112.4 levels. Markets await the release of December Current Account Balance. 1-Feb 1.25 112.8 Daily change:.7%.7% (+) Japan Q3 GDP rose 1.1% YoY, higher than an increase of.9% in previous quarter High 1.2594 115.61 (-) Japan December CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.3% YoY, lower than an increase of.5% in previous month Low 1.2344 112.4 (+) Japan January manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.8, higher than 52.4 in previous month Support* 1.236 111.34 (~) Japan December Industrial Production rose.5% MoM, same as pervious month Resistance* 1.261 114.91 1.4 JPY/SGD 6-month Chart JPY/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. JPY/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3 CHF SNB announced to maintain current interest rate unchanged in September, in line with expectation. KOF leading indicator was 11.7, worse than expected. But the President Trump s safety policy led to increased market risk aversion. CHF strengthened. USDCHF once dropped to.9857 levels. Markets await the release of December Retail Sales. ` 1-Feb 1.425.989 (-) Switzerland Q3 GDP rose 1.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 2% in previous quarter Daily change: -.19% -.19% (+) Switzerland December CPI kept flat YoY, higher than a decrease of.3% in previous month High 1.4348 1.149 (~) Switzerland December unemployment rate arrived at 3.3%, same as pervious month Low 1.447.9857 (-) Switzerland December Foreign Currency Reserves arrived at CHF 645.3 billion, lower than CHF 647.8 Support* 1.48.9783 billion in previous month Resistance* 1.438 1.75 1.5 CHF/SGD 6-month Chart CHF/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.4 1.3 9 CHF/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
1/2/217 SGD Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly eased monetary policy in April. Affected by weakening USD, SGD strengthened. USDSGD once dropped to 1.466 levels. Markets await the release of January PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs USD 1-Feb 1.41 (+) Singapore Q4 GDP advance result rose 1.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous quarter's Daily change: -.77% final value High 1.43 (-) Singapore December CPI rose.2% YoY, lower than an increase of #N/A N/A% in previous month Low 1.41 (-) Singapore Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 2.2%, higher than 2.1% in previous quarter Support* 1.4 (-) Singapore December Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 9.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 11.5% in Resistance* 1.43 previous month USD/SGD 6-month Chart USD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 USD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3
1/2/217 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of February 1, 217 Reporting period Analysts Consensus Date Events Previous Actual United States 31-Jan-17 Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar 55 5.3 5.3 31-Jan-17 Consumer Confidence* Mar 112.8 111.8 111.8 31-Jan-17 Employment Cost Index Qtrly.6%.5%.5% 1-Feb-17 ADP Employment Change Jan 168K 152.6K - 1-Feb-17 Construction Spending MoM Dec.2%.9% - 1-Feb-17 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly 4% - 1-Feb-17 ISM Manufacturing* Jan 55 54.5-1-Feb-17 ISM Prices Paid Jan 65.5 65.5-2-Feb-17 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 25K 259K - 2-Feb-17 Continuing Claims Weekly 262.5K 21K - 2-Feb-17 Nonfarm Productivity Qtrly 1% 3.1% - 3-Feb-17 Durable Goods Orders* Jan -.4% - 3-Feb-17 Durables Ex Transportation Jan.5% - 3-Feb-17 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jan 57 56.6-3-Feb-17 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls* Jan 175K 156K - 3-Feb-17 Factory Orders* Dec.7% -2.4% - 3-Feb-17 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Jan 4K 17K - 3-Feb-17 Unemployment Rate* Jan 4.7% 4.7% - Regional 1-Feb-17 China PMI Manufacturing Jan 51.2 51.4-1-Feb-17 Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index Mar 51.2-1-Feb-17 New Zealand Employment Changge (QoQ) Qtrly.7%.8% - 2-Feb-17 Australia Building Approvals (MoM)* Dec -1.5% 7% - 2-Feb-17 Australia Trade Balance* Dec 2M 1243M - 2-Feb-17 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) Dec -1.8% -4.8% - 3-Feb-17 Australia AiG Performance of Service Index Jan 57.7-3-Feb-17 Hong Kong Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Dec -4.9% -5.5% - G7 Countries 31-Jan-17 Canada Canada Industrial Production* Jan.5%.36%.36% 31-Jan-17 Canada GDP MoM* Dec.3%.4%.4% 31-Jan-17 Canada Canada Industrial Production* Jan.5%.36%.36% 31-Jan-17 UK Mortgage Approvals Jan 69.15K 67.898K 67.898K 1-Feb-17 France PMI Manufacturing* Mar 53.4 53.4-1-Feb-17 Germany PMI Manufacturing Mar 56.5 56.5-1-Feb-17 Italy PMI Manufacturing Jan 53.3 53.2-1-Feb-17 Japan Vehicle Sales (YoY) Jan 1.8% - 1-Feb-17 UK Nat'wide House Price sa (MoM)* Jan %.8% - 1-Feb-17 UK Nat'wide House Price nsa (YoY)* Jan 4.3% 4.5% - 1-Feb-17 UK PMI Manufacturing Jan 55.9 56.1-2-Feb-17 UK BOE Announces Rates*.25%.25% - 3-Feb-17 France PMI Services Mar 53.9 53.9-3-Feb-17 Germany PMI Services Mar 53.2 53.2-3-Feb-17 UK PMI Services Jan 55.8 56.2 -
1/2/217 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund.5.5 2-Feb-17 Canada (BOC).5.5 1-Mar-17 Europe (ECB).. 9-Mar-17 Japan (BOJ).1.1 16-Mar-17 UK (BOE).25.25 2-Feb-17 Malaysia 3. 3. 2-Mar-17 Australia (RBA) 1.5 1.5 7-Feb-17 Taiwan 1.38 1.38 - New Zealand (RBNZ) 1.75 2. 9-Feb-17 Indonesia 6.5 6.5 - Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 1 Feb 217 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer The information shown in this document is neither a recommendation, an offer, nor a solicitation for any investment product or service. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. Investors should carefully consider whether any investment products or services are appropriate for them in view of their investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy or completeness, and under no circumstances will the Bank be liable for any loss caused by reliance on any opinion or statement made in this document. Except as specifically indicated, the expressions of opinion are those of the Bank only and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. This document is distributed by HSBC Bank (Singapore) Limited ( HBSP ) pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations, to its customers for general reference only. HBSP accepts legal responsibility for the contents of this document, and may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Please refer to HBSP s website at www.hsbc.com.sg for its contact details. This document is prepared by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ( HBAP ), 1 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. HBAP is incorporated in Hong Kong and is part of the HSBC Group.