Federal Politics in Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada s Leadership Race Publication date: December 8 th, 2012
2 This poll was conducted online in all regions of Canada with a representative sample of 1,500 Canadians, between December 3 rd and December 6 th, 2012. Final data were weighted by age, gender, language, level of education and household composition (with or without children under the age of 18) in order to obtain a representative sample of the Canadian population. A probabilistic sample of 1,500 respondents would yield a margin of error of 2,5%, 19 times out of 20. Survey respondents were selected randomly from the LegerWeb Internet panel, which is comprised of over 400,000 Canadian households. A stratification process was applied to invitation lists to ensure optimal representation of respondents. Panelists were recruited randomly during Leger Marketing telephone surveys. Several quality control measures ensure the representativeness and accuracy of Leger Marketing s surveys with its panel members. In the tables, numbers in bold red indicate a significantly higher proportion than that of other groups. Numbers in bold blue indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other groups.
Federal Politics in Canada
Federal Voting Intentions 4 The Conservatives are leading with 35% of voting intentions, a 3 point increase since last April. Question If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? In cases where respondents have no opinion, the following question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? Before distribution of undecided Decided voters (n=1,226) April 2012 (Decided voters) (n=1,275) Federal Elections 2011 Conservative Party of Canada 28% 35% 32% 39,6% New Democratic Party of Canada 24% 30% 33% 30,6% Liberal Party of Canada 15% 18% 19% 18,9% Green Party of Canada 7% 9% 8% 3,9% Bloc Québécois 6% 7% 7% 6,0% Other party 1% 1% 1% 0,3% I would not vote / I would cancel my ballot 6% - - - I don't know 9% - - - I prefer not answering 4% - - -
Federal Voting Intentions by Region 5 The Conservative Party is ahead in Ontario (40%) and in Alberta (63%). The NDP is ahead in Quebec with 35% of voting intentions, a 12 point decrease since last April. Question If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? In cases where respondents have no opinion, the following question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? Federal Voting Intentions Decided voters (n=1,275) (n=79) (n=344) (n=479) (n=96) (n=111) (n=117) Conservative Party of Canada 35% 17% 15% 40% 35% 63% 39% New Democratic Party of Canada 30% 25% 35% 26% 33% 21% 39% Liberal Party of Canada 18% 39% 17% 19% 23% 10% 12% Green Party of Canada 9% 16% 2% 13% 7% 5% 8% Bloc Québécois 7% - 29% - - - - Other party 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Satisfaction with the Harper Government 6 Close to four Canadians out of ten (39%) are satisfied with the government led by Stephen Harper, while 55% are unsatisfied. This represents a 3 point gain in satisfaction since April 2012. Question Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the government of Canada led by Stephen Harper? Satisfaction TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 39% 20% 25% 44% 33% 59% 42% Very satisfied 8% 2% 3% 9% 8% 18% 7% Somewhat satisfied 31% 18% 22% 35% 25% 41% 35% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 55% 69% 67% 50% 59% 39% 52% Not very satisfied 22% 18% 22% 23% 25% 19% 26% Not satisfied at all 33% 51% 45% 27% 34% 20% 26% Don t know / Refusal 6% 11% 8% 6% 8% 2% 6%
Satisfaction with The Way Democracy Works at the Federal Level 7 One third of Canadians (33%) are satisfied with the way democracy works at the federal level, while 58% are unsatisfied. Question 6A For each of the following statements, please indicate if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The way democracy works at the federal level The way democracy works at the federal level TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 33% 23% 23% 35% 30% 51% 33% Very satisfied 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 18% 8% Somewhat satisfied 25% 15% 17% 29% 23% 33% 25% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 58% 68% 69% 54% 61% 43% 56% Not very satisfied 28% 18% 28% 29% 33% 28% 28% Not satisfied at all 30% 50% 41% 25% 29% 15% 27% Don t know / Refusal 9% 10% 8% 11% 8% 6% 12%
Satisfaction with The Federal Government's Management of Public Finance 8 More than one third of Canadians (36%) are satisfied with the federal government's management of public finance, while 57% are unsatisfied. Question 6B For each of the following statements, please indicate if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The federal government's management of public finance The federal government's management of public finance TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 36% 22% 28% 40% 33% 52% 38% Very satisfied 9% 5% 6% 11% 7% 16% 9% Somewhat satisfied 27% 17% 23% 29% 26% 36% 29% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 57% 70% 65% 53% 59% 46% 55% Not very satisfied 30% 34% 34% 30% 30% 30% 24% Not satisfied at all 27% 36% 31% 24% 29% 16% 31% Don t know / Refusal 7% 8% 6% 6% 8% 2% 7%
Satisfaction with Canada's Image in the Rest of the World 9 More than half of Canadians (52%) are satisfied with Canada's image in the rest of the world, while 41% are unsatisfied. Question 6C For each of the following statements, please indicate if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Canada's image in the rest of the world Canada's image in the rest of the world TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 52% 38% 30% 61% 52% 80% 55% Very satisfied 15% 9% 8% 17% 16% 30% 16% Somewhat satisfied 37% 28% 22% 44% 37% 50% 40% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 41% 51% 63% 33% 39% 17% 38% Not very satisfied 21% 32% 25% 19% 19% 11% 19% Not satisfied at all 20% 19% 38% 13% 20% 6% 19% Don t know / Refusal 7% 12% 7% 7% 8% 3% 4%
Satisfaction with Environmental Protection at the Federal Level 10 More than one third of Canadians (36%) are satisfied with environmental protection at the federal level, while 55% are unsatisfied. Question 6D For each of the following statements, please indicate if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Environmental protection at the federal level Environmental protection at the federal level TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 34% 26% 20% 38% 39% 47% 39% Very satisfied 7% 8% 4% 6% 7% 15% 6% Somewhat satisfied 27% 18% 16% 32% 32% 32% 33% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 55% 67% 70% 49% 51% 47% 46% Not very satisfied 24% 28% 23% 25% 21% 30% 17% Not satisfied at all 31% 39% 47% 24% 30% 17% 29% Don t know / Refusal 11% 7% 10% 13% 10% 6% 15%
Satisfaction with Social Services Offered by the Federal Government 11 Four Canadians out of ten (40%) are satisfied with the social services offered by the federal government, while 53% are unsatisfied. Question 6E For each of the following statements, please indicate if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Social services offered by the federal government (employment insurance, etc.) Social services offered by the federal government TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 40% 24% 26% 47% 35% 57% 42% Very satisfied 8% 5% 5% 8% 7% 16% 7% Somewhat satisfied 32% 19% 21% 39% 28% 41% 35% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 53% 68% 66% 47% 55% 40% 53% Not very satisfied 27% 29% 33% 24% 29% 25% 28% Not satisfied at all 26% 39% 33% 23% 26% 15% 25% Don t know / Refusal 7% 8% 8% 6% 10% 3% 5%
Perception Canada's Economic Situation Over the Next Year 12 Half of Canadians (48%) think that Canada's economic situation will remain constant over the next year, while 25% think it will worsen and 17% it will improve. Question 7 In your opinion, over the next year, will Canada's economic situation improve, worsen or remain constant? TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) Improve 17% 9% 10% 20% 20% 27% 17% Remain constant 48% 45% 52% 48% 43% 47% 46% Worsen 25% 35% 32% 21% 22% 22% 21% Don t know 10% 11% 6% 11% 15% 4% 13%
Liberal Party of Canada s Leadership Race
Federal Voting Intentions With Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party of Canada Leader 14 If Justin Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the liberals would have 31% of voting intentions in Canada, and 28% in Québec. Question 2 If Justin Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? Federal Voting Intentions Decided Voters (n=1,215) (n=80) (n=341) (n=475) (n=97) (n=107) (n=115) Conservative Party of Canada 31% 13% 14% 35% 32% 60% 37% Liberal Party of Canada 31% 53% 28% 34% 29% 19% 23% New Democratic Party of Canada 24% 21% 28% 20% 28% 17% 33% Green Party of Canada 7% 10% 2% 10% 11% 3% 8% Bloc Québécois 7% - 27% - - - - Other party 0% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% Canada - 4% +13% -6% -2% = Québec -1% +11% -7% = -2%
Federal Voting Intentions With Marc Garneau as Liberal Party of Canada Leader 15 If Marc Garneau were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the liberals would have 19% of voting intentions in Canada, and 16% in Québec Question 3 If Marc Garneau were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? Federal Voting Intentions Decided Voters (n=1,144) (n=70) (n=313) (n=456) (n=87) (n=107) (n=111) Conservative Party of Canada 35% 18% 15% 38% 34% 68% 42% New Democratic Party of Canada 29% 30% 35% 27% 34% 13% 34% Liberal Party of Canada 19% 27% 16% 23% 23% 13% 15% Bloc Québécois 8% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% Green Party of Canada 7% 16% 2% 10% 7% 4% 9% Other party 2% 9% 1% 2% 2% 2% 0% Canada = +1% -1% -2% +1% Québec = -1% = = +2%
Federal Voting Intentions With Martha Hall Findlay as Liberal Party of Canada Leader 16 If Martha Hall Findlay were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the liberals would have 12% of voting intentions in Canada, and 7% in Québec Question 4 If Martha Hall Findlay were leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? Federal Voting Intentions Decided Voters (n=1,116) (n=68) (n=302) (n=442) (n=89) (n=106) (n=109) Conservative Party of Canada 36% 19% 17% 42% 34% 63% 41% New Democratic Party of Canada 33% 34% 39% 29% 40% 20% 40% Liberal Party of Canada 12% 20% 7% 16% 17% 11% 6% Green Party of Canada 8% 17% 2% 12% 6% 4% 10% Bloc Québécois 8% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other party 3% 10% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% Canada +1% -6% +3% -1% +1% Québec +2% -10% +4% = +4%
Awareness and Opinion Regarding the Various Candidates for the Leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada 17 Half of Canadians (49%) have a good opinion of Justin Trudeau, 38% have a good opinion of Marc Garneau and 12% have a good opinion of Martha Hall Findlay. The other candidates are known by less than 10% of Canadians. Question 8 For each of the following candidates in the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership race, please indicate if you have a good or a bad opinion, or if you don't know this person: Base: All respondents Good opinion Bad opinion Notoriety Don't know this person Don't know Justin Trudeau 49% 21% 70% 6% 19% 5% Marc Garneau 38% 8% 46% 27% 23% 4% Refusal Martha Hall Findlay 12% 7% 19% 51% 26% 4% Deborah Coyne 5% 3% 8% 64% 23% 4% Joyce Murray 4% 3% 7% 67% 22% 4% David Bertschi 3% 2% 5% 70% 20% 4% David Merner 3% 2% 5% 70% 21% 5% Karen McCrimmon 3% 2% 5% 69% 21% 5% René Roy 3% 3% 6% 69% 22% 4% George Takach 3% 2% 5% 69% 22% 4% Alex Burton 2% 2% 4% 70% 21% 4% Jonathan Mousley 2% 3% 5% 70% 21% 4%
Awareness and Opinion Regarding the Various Candidates for the Leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada, in Quebec 18 Question 8 For each of the following candidates in the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership race, please indicate if you have a good or a bad opinion, or if you don't know this person: Base: Quebec respondents (n=401) Good opinion Bad opinion Notoriety Don't know this person Don't know Refusal Justin Trudeau 56% 26% 82% 3% 12% 3% Marc Garneau 48% 14% 62% 17% 18% 2% Martha Hall Findlay 6% 4% 10% 66% 21% 2% René Roy 3% 3% 6% 73% 18% 2% Deborah Coyne 2% 3% 5% 77% 16% 2% Joyce Murray 1% 2% 3% 76% 18% 2% David Bertschi 1% 2% 3% 78% 16% 2% David Merner 1% 2% 3% 79% 16% 2% Jonathan Mousley 1% 2% 3% 76% 17% 3% Karen McCrimmon 1% 3% 4% 77% 17% 2% George Takach 1% 3% 4% 77% 18% 2% Alex Burton 0% 3% 3% 77% 18% 2%
The Candidate for the Leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada Who Would Make the Best Leader, by Region 19 Four Canadians out of ten (38%) think that Justin Trudeau would make the best leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, followed by Marc Garneau (16%). Question 9 In your opinion, which of the following candidates would make the best leader of the Liberal Party of Canada? TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) Justin Trudeau 38% 51% 41% 40% 24% 26% 35% Marc Garneau 16% 3% 22% 14% 14% 19% 13% Martha Hall Findlay 3% 4% 1% 4% 2% 5% 1% Deborah Coyne 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 6% 1% Joyce Murray 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% David Bertschi 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Alex Burton 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% David Merner 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% Jonathan Mousley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Karen McCrimmon 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% René Roy 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% George Takach 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Don t know 42% 40% 35% 40% 53% 43% 48%
The Candidate for the Leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada Who Would Make the Best Leader, by Voting Intentions 20 Among liberal voters, 60% think that Justin Trudeau would make the best leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, followed by Marc Garneau (20%). Question 9 In your opinion, which of the following candidates would make the best leader of the Liberal Party of Canada? TOTAL LPC (n=248) PCC (n=405) NDP (n=371) BQ (n=92) GP (n=93) Justin Trudeau 38% 60% 34% 46% 33% 30% Marc Garneau 16% 20% 20% 14% 23% 14% Martha Hall Findlay 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 6% Deborah Coyne 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% Joyce Murray 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% David Bertschi 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Alex Burton 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% David Merner 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Mousley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Karen McCrimmon 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% René Roy 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% George Takach 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Je ne sais pas 42% 16% 40% 34% 41% 42%
Perceptions of Pierre Elliott Trudeau s Legacy 21 More than half of Canadians (54%) have a good impression of Pierre Elliot Trudeau s legacy, while 27% have a bad impression. Question 10 Do you have a good or bad impression of Pierre Elliot Trudeau's legacy? TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL GOOD IMPRESSION 54% 69% 44% 62% 51% 43% 54% Very good impression 19% 32% 10% 27% 18% 12% 16% Somewaht good impression 35% 37% 35% 35% 33% 31% 38% TOTAL BAD IMPRESSION 27% 12% 38% 21% 32% 37% 25% Somewhat mauvaise impression 17% 8% 23% 13% 26% 20% 16% Very bad impression 10% 5% 14% 8% 6% 17% 9% Don t know 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 20% 21%
Perceptions of Pierre Elliott Trudeau s Legacy, by Voting Intentions 22 Question 10 Do you have a good or bad impression of Pierre Elliot Trudeau's legacy? TOTAL LPC (n=248) CPC (n=405) NDP (n=371) BQ (n=92) GP (n=93) TOTAL GOOD IMPRESSION 54% 86% 47% 61% 16% 70% Very good impression 19% 43% 12% 20% 1% 33% Somewhat good impression 35% 43% 35% 41% 15% 37% TOTAL BAD IMPRESSION 27% 7% 42% 26% 69% 12% Somewhat bad impression 17% 6% 22% 20% 38% 10% Very bad impression 10% 1% 20% 6% 31% 2% Don t know 19% 7% 11% 13% 15% 18%
Perception of Resemblance Between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Elliot Trudeau 23 In the opinion of 40% of Canadians, Justin Trudeau is similar to his father, Pierre Elliot Trudeau, while 31% thinks he is different. Question 11 In your opinion, is Justin Trudeau different or similar to his father, Pierre Elliot Trudeau? TOTAL (n=100) (n=401) (n=600) (n=150) TOTAL SIMILAR 40% 46% 34% 40% 40% 41% 40% Very similar 7% 6% 5% 8% 4% 8% 4% Somewhat similar 33% 40% 29% 32% 36% 33% 36% TOTAL DIFFERENT 31% 27% 41% 31% 30% 34% 19% Somewhat different 23% 16% 33% 22% 20% 27% 14% Very different 8% 11% 7% 9% 10% 7% 5% Don t know 29% 27% 26% 29% 30% 25% 41%
Perceptions Towards Justin Trudeau 24 Nearly half of Canadians (46%) think that Justin Trudeau has the necessary qualities to become prime minister, but only 27% think he is ready. Question 12 In your opinion, does Justin Trudeau Base: All respondents Yes No Don t know have the necessary qualities to become prime minister? 46% 31% 23% have the necessary competencies to become prime minister? 40% 36% 25% is he ready to become prime minister? 27% 50% 23% does he understand the reality of ordinary Canadians? 41% 36% 24%