Roadshow. November 2005

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Transcription:

Roadshow November 2005 1

Contents Elisa today Q3 2005 and financial highlights Elisa and the Finnish telecoms market review Saunalahti transaction Future outlook 2

Elisa at a glance Full range of telecom services No 1 fixed network operator No 1 broadband operator No. 2 mobile operator in Finland and in Estonia Offering Pan-European and global scope through partnerships Vodafone and Telenor Key figures in Jan-Sep 2005 Revenue 994m, EBITDA 352m, net profit 150m, FCF 163m, gearing 35%, employees 4,770, CAPEX 133m Market cap 2,1bn Revenue per segment in Q3 2005 Foreign owners 45% Others 1.5% Fixed 46.8% Shareholder structure, Sep 2005 Domestic institutions 23% Mobile 51.7% Households 32% 3

Q3 2005 financial highlights Elisa Q3 2005 highlights Elisa further strengthened its market position, with growth continuing in both mobile and broadband subscriptions Competition authorities approved the Saunalahti deal EBITDA and EBIT in line with guidance Competition environment and change in revenue structure put pressure on profit development Financial position remained strong 4

Q3 2005 and financial highlights Profitability in line with guidance Revenue EUR 326m (333) sale of non-core businesses Revenue and EBITDA-% comparable revenue increased slightly EBITDA EUR 85m (112) 333 351 333 336 326 EBIT EUR 33m (57) Pre-tax profit EUR 28m (50) EPS EUR 0.15 (0.27) Strong financial position Cash flow EUR 1m (71) lower profit, seasonality in NWC, interest payment and purchase of Tikka shares Net debt EUR 363m (513) CAPEX EUR 45m, 14% Equity ratio 55% (44) 33 % 30 % 26 % 25 % 26 % Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Revenue, EURm Comparable EBITDA-% 5

Finnish telecom market Growth in mobile usage and broadband Telecom market growth very modest Mobile penetration above 90% Growth in mobile MOU more than 10% Growth in SMS more than 15%, Price erosion offsets usage growth Fixed line broadband growth about 70% Annual decrease in analogue fixed about 10% New businesses emerging, effect still minor MMS growth more than 100%, but still marginal in revenues 3G network services starting up 3G handset subsidies in 2006 6

Finnish telecom market Market shares* in Q3 2005 Finnet 15.1% Others 1.1% Others 6.2% Elisa 37.6% DNA 14.5% Elisa 27.9% Elisa 31.6% HTV** 5.8% Finnet 23.9% Saunalahti 9.3% Saunalahti 3.2% TeliaSonera 47.6% Sonera 47.2% Sonera 29.3% Mobile network operators Mobile service operators Fixed broadband operators * Elisa estimates ** Helsinki Television, cable-tv company 7

Finnish telecom market Mobile handset subsidies in 3G The Ministry of Transport and Communications proposes that the prohibition on bundling 3G mobile phones and subscriptions will be removed The proposal would enable a 24-month SIM-lock The law would take effect in early 2006 Elisa s strong retail chains and 3G network will give customers clear benefits As the leading promoter of this initiative Elisa continues discussions to remove the prohibition on bundling GSM phones and subscriptions as well 8

Market review, Elisa s mobile business in Q3 Growth in subscriptions, lower churn Net adds 16,000 in Q3 Total amount of subscriptions in Elisa s network about 2 million Continued fierce competition churn 27.2% (21.6) ARPU EUR 31.2 (37.5) Growth in network usage MOU grew by 48% and SMS 62% due to increased Saunalahti traffic growth in own service provider s numbers 11% and 12%, respectively Service operator market share 28%* * Elisa estimate 1 500 1 300 1 100 900 700 500 Subscriptions* and net adds 1 438 1465 1481 1 368 1 384 38 15 55 27 16 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Subscriptions, '000 Net adds, '000 * in Finland excl. MVNO s 9

Market review, Elisa s fixed network business in Q3 Market leadership in broadband strengthened ADSL subscriptions growth 87% yoy strongest growth among the operators Net adds 38,000 in Q3 Decrease in analogue subscriptions even stronger that earlier analogue lines decreased by 9% and ISDN channels by 20% also volumes are decreasing Market share 32%* 400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 Broadband subscriptions 345 898 308 183 269 232 222 307 185 136 46 925 37 171 24 634 38 951 37 715 0 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 * Elisa estimate Subscriptions Net adds 10

Development of operations Elisa strategy 2005-2003 - New markets Integration of One Elisa Strengthening market position in core markets 11

Elisa - Saunalahti Saunalahti deal accepted 2003 - Integration of One Elisa 2005 - Strengthening market position in core markets New markets The decision of the Finnish Competition Authority will provide a solid platform for developing a competitive and financially strong Finnish operator The Saunaverkko network will be sold inclusive of customers in the regions of Tampere, Jyväskylä and Riihimäki, and exclusive of customers in the Helsinki metropolitan area the decision regarding the mobile business does not include conditions A joint plan for strengthened competitiveness to be completed within a month productivity will improve decisively Operations will continue using the current model Saunalahti s MVNO model will continue to be a starting point for flexible and innovative development in the future 12

Elisa - Saunalahti Better services for Finnish customers Elisa to invest in Finland and in new services reliable and extensive network strong emphasis on new services All present services of Elisa and Saunalahti will continue The Saunalahti brand will remain, with its own strong features enhanced Saunalahti will consolidate its position as a service operator in the broadband market, and the availability area of broadband will be extended Separate expansion of the Saunaverkko network will not be continued 13

Elisa - Saunalahti Progress with the transaction Share Exchange Offer will end on 4 November 2005 The result of the Share Exchange Offer preliminary result on or about 7 November Final result on or about 11 November Increase in the share capital in the Trade Register on or about 15 November Quoting of new shares on the stock exchange on or about 16 November Extraordinary general meeting at the turn of November and December 14

Elisa - Saunalahti Financial impact of Saunalahti transaction Purchase price approx. EUR 357m (if the deal is 100% share exchange with a share price of EUR 14) Approximate purchase price allocations amortisable intangible assets EUR 100m customer relationships Saunalahti brand goodwill EUR 270m deferred tax asset EUR 16m and deferred tax liability EUR 26m in fair value adjustments Annual additional depreciation approx. EUR 20m Synergy benefits to be at least EUR 70m Synergies start to take effect in late 2005, and almost reach their peak in 2006 traffic transferred to Elisa s network faster than estimated 15

Outlook for Q4 2005 Market Keen competition will continue Elisa will continue to strengthen its market position Financial position Comparable revenue at 2004 level Q4 2005 comparable EBITDA and EBIT slightly lower than in previous quarters in 2005, taking into account the additional traffic generated by Saunalahti. Estimates do not include the effects of Saunalahti consolidation CAPEX and cash flow CAPEX about 13% of revenue Cash flow clearly positive 16

Roadshow November 2005 17

Appendix slide Execution of non-core assets sale EUR million Estimated value in Feb 2005 1) Book value Execution price Remaining value Comptel 128 26 2) 66 3) 33 4) Yomi-IT, Estera and others 20 25 20 20 5) - Non-core properties 60 70 60 25 45 50 Receivables from the sale of German business 40 40 40 - Total 240 260 78 83 1) Estimate in Elisa s CMD material in February 2005 2) Includes Comptel s book value of EUR 1m and retained earnings 3) Sale price EUR 66m, profit EUR 40m 4) Based on Elisa s 19.9% stake and share price of EUR 1.58, possible sale is tax free 5) Estera deal is estimated to be closed in November 18

Appendix slide Consolidated Cash flow statement CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT EUR million Q3 2005 Q2 2005 Q1 2005 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Cash flow from operating activities Profit before tax 28 113 39 65 50 41 Adjustments to profit before tax 53-11 47 34 57 46 Change in working capital -19 8-26 18-16 27 Cash flow from operating activities 62 109 60 117 92 114 Received dividends and interests and interest paid -12-4 -7-5 -11-8 Taxes paid -1-2 -1-5 0-6 Net cash flow from operating activities 49 103 53 107 81 101 Cash flow in investments Capital expenditure -45-38 -41-54 -41-33 Investments in shares and other investments -4-14 1-2 0-8 Proceeds from asset disposal 2 85 13 6 31 29 Net cash used in investment -48 33-27 -50-10 -13 Cash flow after investments 1 136 26 57 71 88 Cash flow in financing Sales of treasury shares 6 Change in interest-bearing receivables 1 0 0-1 0 25 Repayment of long-term debt -2-70 -15-110 -1 Change in short-term debt -9-2 1 0 0-14 Repayment of financing leases -4-4 -4-5 -6-4 Dividends paid 0-5 -55-3 0-9 Cash flow in financing -14-82 -74-112 -6-3 Change in cash and cash equivalents -13 54-48 -55 65 85 19

Appendix slide Financial situation FINANCIAL SITUATION (EUR million) 30 Sep 2005 30 Jun 2005 31 Mar 2005 31 Dec 2004 30 Sep 2004 Interest-bearing debt Bonds and notes 455 458 463 467 570 Loans from the Pension fund 0 0 64 75 80 Loans from financial institutions 0 1 0 0 2 Financial leases 59 63 61 68 69 Committed credit line 1) 0 0 0 0 0 Others 4 2) 13 15 14 10 Interest-bearing debt, total 519 534 604 625 730 Security deposits 1 1 1 1 0 Securities 3) 122 139 67 96 129 Cash and bank 33 30 48 67 89 Interest-bearing receivables 156 170 116 164 218 Net debt 4) 363 364 489 462 513 1) The committed credit line is a joint EUR 170 million revolving credit facility with five banks, which Elisa Corporation may flexibly use on agreed pricing. The loan arrangement is valid until 17 June 2012. 2) Redemption liability for minority shareholders in Radiolinja (EUR 0,9m) and Yomi (EUR 3,1m) 3) Securities consists money-market instruments. 4) Net debt is interest-bearing debt less cash and interest-bearing receivables. 20

Appendix slide Group s quarterly key figures Group EURm Q3/05 Q2/05 Q1/05 Q4/04 Q3/04 Q2/04 Q1/04 Revenue 326 336 333 351 333 339 333 EBITDA 85 170 97 122 111 101 120 EBITDA-% 26 % 51 % 29 % 35 % 33 % 30 % 36 % Clean EBITDA 85 84 86 104 111 101 120 Clean EBITDA-% 26 % 25 % 26 % 30 % 33 % 30 % 36 % EBIT 33 118 45 69 57 48 67 Clean EBIT 33 32 34 51 57 48 67 Clean EBIT-% 10 % 10 % 10 % 15 % 17 % 14 % 20 % Pre-Tax Profit 28 113 39 48 50 41 56 Clean Pre-Tax Profit 28 27 28 30 50 41 56 Financial position Net debt 363 354 489 462 513 580 660 Equity ratio 55 % 55 % 49 % 49 % 43 % 43 % 41 % Net debt / EBITDA 0,8 0,8 1,2 0,9 1,1 1,4 1,4 Net interest coverage 16,9 30,3 14,9 20,3 16,0 14,4 12,0 Gearing 35 % 36 % 55 % 51 % 61 % 72 % 87 % Investments in fixed assets 45 46 42 59 45 33 44 Operative CAPEX/Sales 14 % 14 % 13 % 17 % 14 % 10 % 13 % in network buy-backs 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 in shares 5 31 3 53 0 8 0 Total 51 77 45 112 45 42 63 CAPEX/Sales 16 % 23 % 14 % 32 % 14 % 12 % 19 % 21

Appendix slide Segments quarterly key figures Segments Mobile Q3/05 Q2/05 Q1/05 Q4/04 Q3/04 Q2/04 Q1/04 Revenue 183 180 179 180 179 175 179 ARPU, EUR 31,2 33,8 34,6 37,0 37,5 38,2 38,6 Churn, % 27,2 32,3 33,5 38,9 21,6 29,4 47,4 Subscriptions, total 1 962 775 1 465 066 1 438 452 1 383 515 1 368 515 1 330 901 1 319 007 Elisa subscriptions 1 480 794 1 465 066 1 438 452 1 383 515 1 368 515 1 330 901 1 319 007 Saunalahti subscriptions 481 981 EBITDA 46 46 49 57 60 47 64 Clean EBITDA-% 25 % 26 % 27 % 32 % 34 % 27 % 36 % EBIT 24 24 27 35 36 25 42 EBIT-% 13 % 13 % 15 % 19 % 20 % 14 % 23 % CAPEX 18 22 13 22 18 17 26 Operative CAPEX 18 22 13 22 18 16 7 Op.CAPEX/Sales 10 % 12 % 7 % 12 % 10 % 9 % 4 % Fixed network Revenue 166 170 162 162 161 166 164 Subscriptions, total 1 282 869 1 263 300 1 246 175 1 219 547 1 199 494 1 190 101 1 194 480 Broadband subscriptions 345 898 308 183 269 232 222 307 185 136 160 502 148 270 ISDN channels 135 716 141 743 149 339 159 591 170 529 180 618 190 921 Cable TV subscriptions 208 592 204 528 200 864 198 447 193 750 189 534 186 097 Analogue and other subs 592 663 608 846 626 740 639 202 650 079 659 447 669 192 EBITDA 40 43 40 48 50 48 55 EBITDA-% 24 % 25 % 25 % 30 % 31 % 29 % 34 % EBIT 12 17 13 20 24 20 27 EBIT-% 7 % 10 % 8 % 12 % 15 % 12 % 16 % CAPEX 27 23 24 31 22 15 15 Operative CAPEX 27 23 24 31 22 15 15 Op.CAPEX/Sales 16 % 14 % 15 % 19 % 14 % 9 % 9 % 22