MnDOT Highway Construction Outlook Mark Gieseke MnDOT Office of Capital Programs & Performance Measures Minnesota Transportation Alliance November 1, 2012
MnDOT Highway Construction Outlook Forecast Accuracy Stock market 45% College basketball scores 70% Weather forecasts 80% Projects in the first year of the STIP 90%
MnDOT Highway Construction Outlook
The Minnesota STIP has been developed using programs specified in SAFETEA-LU. With the passage of MAP-21, programs and funding distributions have changed Changes to the program in 2014 to 2016 are anticipated October 1, 2012 STIP Cover Letter
MnDOT Highway Construction Outlook 1. State Road Construction Spending Outlook 2. Special Programs 3. Looking to the Future
MnDOT Construction Spending Outlook Funding by Source (in millions of dollars)
State Road Construction Program by Year including Bond Funds (millions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL* FEDERAL FUNDS Formula 312 305 223 206 1,045 High Priority Projects 44 3 23 0 70 Other Federal 4 0 2 0 6 Advance Construction 188 116 158 15 477 SUBTOTAL* 548 423 406 221 1,598 STATE FUNDS Trunk Highway 3312 300 288 285 1,184 Bond Funds 241 147 111 24 523 TOTAL* 1,100 871 805 530 3,305 *May not total correctly due to rounding
State Road Construction Program by Year and Program including Bond Funds (millions) DISTRICT/ ATP 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL* 1 86 48 128 53 314 2 33 43 34 47 157 3 81 57 62 75 276 4 49 53 45 60 207 6 280 91 186 55 612 7 75 53 55 36 219 8 49 42 34 32 157 SUBTOTAL* 652 386 544 358 1,940 METRO 436 457 249 148 1,290 MISC 13 27 12 24 76 TOTAL* 1,100 871 805 530 3,305 *May not total correctly due to rounding
MnDOT Construction Outlook 2012 Outlook compared to 2013 Outlook
Special Programs
Chapter 152 Bridge Projects Funding Source: Transportation Bonds Federal and State Funds Timeframe: 2009 to 2018 2013 12 Projects (incl. Cayuga) 2014 9Projects(incl. St. Croix) 2015 9 projects (incl. Winona) 2016 2 projects (incl. Kennedy)
Interchange Bond Program (2013-2016) Funding Source: Transportation Bonds Timeframe: SFY 2013-2016 TH 13 At CSAH 5 in Burnsville Sep 2012 Letting TH 169 At 93 rd in Brooklyn Park Oct 2012 Letting
Chapter 152 Bond Utilization with the Advancement of Bonds by State Fiscal Year (millions) Fiscal Year 2009-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total 1) Bridges 372 147 174 10 228 37 10 21 78 1077 2) State-wide Transit Facilities Impv't 30 20 50 3) Metro Interchange 10 10 20 4) Greater MN Interchange 20 20 5) Dist 7 Legislative Priority (TH 60 Bigelow to Worthington 60 40 100 6) Pavement/Safety 265 265 7) 169/494 50 50 8) Governor's Inititative 20 20 Total 647 337 234 10 228 37 10 21 78 1602 Bonds Appropriated 918 200 200 100 100 100 100 1718 Bonds Remaining 271 134 100 190 62 125 215 194 116 116 Preservation Project Savings 50 Bridge Project Savings 90 7 Less: Additional Commitments Flood Prevention 10 10 10 10 10 TH 53 Realignment 60 Better Road for Minnesota 68 50 35 Bonds Remaining 411 281 169 199 26 19 99 78 0 0
Transportation Economic Development (TED) Interchange Program First Solicitation Funding Source: Transportation Bonds - $25M (Chapter 388) Timeframe: One-time solicitation in 2011 Second Solicitation Funding Source: State Road Construction - $5 M Timeframe: One-time solicitation in 2012
Transportation Economic Development Program MnDOT financial resources have been leveraged through outside ventures with DEED as well as local partners
Safety and Mobility Interchange Program (SaM) Funding Source: Transportation Bonds - $45 M (Chapter 388) Timeframe: One-time solicitation in 2011 Metro Projects: TH 169 @ Scott CSAH 69, Shakopee Nov 2013 Letting Greater Minnesota Projects: TH 52 @ Goodhue CSAH 24, Cannon Falls Jan 2013 Letting TH 10 @ Benton CSAH 2, Rice Feb 2013 Letting
Long-Term Sustainability for Flood-Prone Highways Funding Source: Transportation Bonds - $40M to $50M Timeframe: 2011 to 2016 February 2011 Solicitation $20 M January 2012 Solicitation $26.4 M District 1: $0.9 M District 2: $7.4 M District 3: $0.4 M District 4: $0.9 M District 6: $0.9 M District 7: $8.1 M District 8: $0.9 M Metro: $20.0 M State Match (ER): $1.4 M
Better Roads for a Better Minnesota Funding Source: Federal, State and Bond Funds - $332M Timeframe: 2012 to 2015 SFY 2012: $144M (+$11M*) SFY 2013: $84M (+$7M*) SFY 2014: $73M (+$6M*) SFY 2015: $31M (+$2M*) (*Construction Delivery)
American Recovery & Reinvestment Act (ARRA) (September 2012 Update) $506M and 228 projects authorized for letting $506M and 228 projects under contract/ construction $496M expended to date and 214 projects completed
Corridor Investment Management Strategy (CIMS) A collaborative process between MnDOT and local, modal, and state partners Identifies and prioritizes investment opportunities Seeks a high return-on-investment given constrained resources. Anticipates $30 million for a competitive solicitation in 2013
Construction Projects in Calendar Years 2013-2014 By Program Program Number of Projects Cost in Millions Bridge Replacement 38 $638 Major Construction 14 122 Reconstruction 10 122 Recondition 21 142 Resurface 72 232 TOTAL 155 $1,255
MnDOT Construction Projects in Calendar Years 2013 and 2014 Calendar Year 2013 2014 Total Number of Projects 98 57 155 Cost in Millions $848 $407 $1,255
Construction Projects in Next Twelve Months Estimate Cost > $15 Million Hwy Description Cost Estimate 10 52 35E 36 36 60 Construction of a new interchange between in Benton on CSAH 2 and Hwy 10. The at-grade intersection has a history of severe and fatal crashes. Construct of a diamond interchange and a second overpass to replace the two signalized intersections on Trunk Highway 52 in Cannon Falls. Major bridge replacement along Pennsylvania interchange with interchange at Cayuga to solve safety and operational problems, geometric improvements on 35E, reconstruction of 35E, lane addition on 35E Reconstruction of frontage roads and intersections in Oak Park Heights. West of Junction 95 near lookout trail. Major river bridge replacement, two intersections, one interchange in Minnesota; one interchange and one overpass in Wisconsin. Construction of a four lane roadway and new bridge from CSAH 5 in Butterfield to 700 th Ave. in St. James. 17.9 22.7 119.1 50.8 416.8 18.8
System Performance Trends 3.3% of Bridges in poor condition. A slight increase from 2010, but is projected to improve the close to the 2% target in 2015 Minnesota Road Fatalities were 368, down from 408 in 2010. This is the lowest number of fatalities in a generation. 98% of interregional trips on IRCs can be driven at target speed. Metro congestion fell to 21% in 2011 compared to 21.5% in 2010. Congestion is expected to grow as economic activity increases Pavement in poor condition declined to 6.6% in 2011 compared to 5.2% in 2010. Increased investment through MnDOT s Better Roads program and in response to MAP-21 will slow deterioration, though pavement is still expected to decline to 8.6% poor in 2016.
Looking to the Future
Minnesota State Highway Investment Plan 2013 to 2032 http://www.dot.state.mn.us/planning/statehighwayinvestmentplan/index.html
Current Trunk Highway System Investments
20-Year Revenue Estimate
Inflation Impact on Future SRC Revenue
Minnesota State Highway Investment Plan
Questions