Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 19, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Figure 1. US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES AT MARKET VALUE (trillion dollars, nsa) Equites at Market Value Total Issues (37.2) Total Ex Foreign Issues* (3.1) Wilshire 5 (23.6) S&P 5 (19.5) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Q3 Q3 12/15 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 * Excludes holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents. Source: Flow of Funds Accounts, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Investment Company Institute. 675 575 475 Figure 2. S&P 5 FINANCIALS STOCK PRICE INDEX* 675 575 475 375 375 275 275 175 175 75 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 75 2-day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3.2 3.1 3. 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Figure 3. 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent) Yield (2.6) 214 215 216 217 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 3.2 3.1 3. 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 6 4 Figure 4. US YIELD CURVE* & BUSINESS CYCLE (basis points) 6 4 2 12/9 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2-8 * 1-year Treasury yield less federal funds rate. Monthly through 1987, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
6 5 Figure 5. YIELD SPREAD: CORPORATE BOND* & 1-YEAR US TREASURY (basis points) 6 5 4 4 3 Average of AA-AAA & BBB-A Corporate Bond Yields Minus 1-Year US Treasury Bond Yield (221) 3 2 Nov 2 1 1 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * Corporate bond yield is average of Moody s Aaa and Baa yields through 1996, then average of BoA Merrill Lynch data for AA-AAA and BBB-A yields. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics. 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 Figure 6. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY (basis points) Spread (371) 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 4 35 3 3 25 214 215 216 217 25 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 3 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 Figure 7. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* 3 2 2 Dec 1 1-1 -2 Composite NY & Philly (Dec=15.3) NY, Philly, and KC (Nov=3.4) NY, Philly, Dallas, and KC (Nov=4.7) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (Nov=4.6) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (Nov=5.9) 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217-1 -2 * Production index used in composite index for Dallas region (viewed by Dallas Fed as key measure of manufacturing conditions). Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. 11 Figure 8. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (1986=1, sa) 11 15 15 1 Nov 1 95 95 9 9 85 monthly 12-ma 85 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: National Federation of Independent Business. 8 Page 4 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Figure 9. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX Dec Dec NAHB Housing Market Index Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: National Association of Home Builders. 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 13 12 Figure 1. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-1966=1, nsa) 13 12 11 11 1 9 Dec 1 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 Consumer Sentiment Index (98.) Current Conditions (112.1) Expectations (88.9) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 6 5 4 Page 5 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
16 14 Figure 11. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BY AGE (1985=1, sa) Nov 16 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 4 Under 35 Years Old (133.3) 35 to 54 Years Old (112.8) 55 Years & Over (89.9) 6 4 2 2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 12 Figure 12. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP 15 1 1 8 Q4 5 6 Q3 4 2 CEO Outlook (>5=expansion) Capital Spending (yearly percent change) -5-1 -15-2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. -2 Page 6 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 13. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE 5 65 6 4 55 5 3 45 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 4 35 Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) 2 3 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 8 Figure 14. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 7 85 9 6 95 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 1 15 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 5 11 4 115 12 3 125 13 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 7 / December 19, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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